2008 Minor League Wrap: Twins Top Outfielders

by Jesse on Sep 14, 2008 7:48 PM EDT in News Comment 17 comments

I actually debated on making this a list of seven, since it's really as arbitrary as five, but in the end five is really enough. There'll be a couple of honorable mentions at the end.

There were a number of stellar performances by rookie outfielders for Twins minor leaguers this year. As we've seen with Ozzie Lewis, having a great rookie campaign doesn't easily translate to success at the next level of the farm system, but combining that with disappointing or stagnant years from popular guys like Joe Benson and Brandon Roberts, the talent of a couple of these rookies can't be ignored.

The only guys who are exempt from this list are, plain and simply, guys who have logged major league service time this season. So no Carlos Gomez, no Denard Span and, yes, there will be no Jason Pridie.

Number 5: Evan Bigley, Elizabethton (R)

Born: 03/1987 Bats/Throws: R/R
300/360/587, .296 ISO, 5.7% BB, 17.9% K, 47% GB, 17% LD, .331 BABIP

Evan Bigley was drafted in the tenth round of the 2008 draft, as the 306th overall draft pick. Over-shadowed by the squad's top pick in the draft, who was also an outfielder, Bigley quietly put together a solid season with Elizabethton in the Rookie Appalachian League. Even though the 21-year old out of Dallas Baptist isn't the youngest, he's a collegiate draft pick who dominated a young league. Picking up where he'd left off in college, he powered his way to a .300/.360/.587 line. He didn't strike out too much, and he walked even less, but he made good contact. Combine that with a .296 ISO, and Bigley punished rookie league pitchers. His 14 home runs were second on the team.

Number 4: Aaron Hicks, GCL (R)

Born: 10/1989 Bats/Throws: S/R
318/409/491, .177 ISO, 14.9% BB, 15.3% K, 53% GB, 8% LD, .366 BABIP

Aaron Hicks was the Twins' first overall pick in June's draft, an athletic and "toolsy" outfielder who could have been drafted as a pitcher. At 18, the high-schooler from Long Beach took Gulf Coast League pitchers by storm, destroying rookie league pitching to the tune of .318/.409/.491. He nabbed 12 bags in 14 attempts (in 45 games), and legged out a number of extra-base hits. The hour homers aren't bad, but it's the four triples and 10 doubles that truly impress and help give Hicks more power than I expected. He's a string bean right now, but like all developing men before him will fill out, and if he can continue to grow he'll become a unique threat at the plate and on the bases. His patience and pitch selection make him a prime candidate for a top-of-the-order role, walking in nearly 15% of his plate appearances. In the field he's raw, like most 18-year old outfielders not named Ken Griffey Jr., but at this stage it's nothing to lose any sleep over.

Number 3: Rene Tosoni, Fort Myers (A+)

Born: 07/1986 Bats/Throws: L/R
300/408/414, .114 ISO, 12.9% BB, 17.6% K, 56% GB, 15% LD, .376 BABIP

Rene Tosoni, as a 36th round selection in 2005, has really blossomed with the Twins after coming over from Chipola College. In hi-A Fort Myers after a great rookie campaign with Elizabethton last year, the 22-year old (in his age-21 campaign, by the way) is fast moving up radars focused on Minnesota's farm system outfielders. He followed up a wicked '07 campaign with an equally impressive '08, hitting .300/.408/.414, with very little power but excellent plate discipline. The unfortunate thing, for Tosoni, was that it all could have been so much better. He broke his leg on May 16th, returning for just six games at the end of August. While his return was naturally unimpressive (1-for-14, three walks, two strikeouts), the fact that he was able to return at all IS impressive. With the potential to be a good all-around outfielder, hopefully Tosoni can pick up in 2009 where it looked like he was headed in 2008.

Number 2: Angel Morales, Elizabethton (R)

Born: 11/1989 Bats/Throws: R/R
301/413/623, .328 ISO, 10.8% BB, 33.0%K, 26% GB, 17% LD, .411 BABIP

In 54 games with Elizabethton this summer, Angel Morales made a name for himself. For his size and age, Morales has a powerful swing, hitting 15 homers to lead the team and flashing an imposing .328 ISO. He spent 38 games with the GCL Twins in 2007 as a 17-year old, where he struck out in 31% of his plate appearances. This year, while he increased his walk rate nearly 30% (up to 10.8% of plate appearances), he's still a strikeout machine, going down on an entire third of his trips to the dish. Considering that, the trigger-happy Morales is still a great hitter, proving it by belting a .301/.413/.623 line in 183 at-bats. In the field he's got a good arm, an accurate arm, and if you're someone who likes to listen to scouting reports you'll also like his "five-tool prospect" status, as well as his comparisons to Carlos Beltran. After a full season and change in the minors, Morales will be ready to leave the rookie leagues in 2009. At just 18, Morales has a pretty high ceiling, so I'm looking forward to him seeing better pitching next summer.

Number 1: Ben Revere, Beloit (A)

Born: 05/1988 Bats/Throws: L/R
379/433/497, .118 ISO, 7.7% BB, 8.3% K, 62% GB, 15% LD, .414 BABIP

Was this a no-brainer? No, but Ben Revere still gets the obvious spot. After hitting nearly .400 on the season in Beloit, the 20-year old center fielder finished his second year in the system with a .379/.433/.497 line. A shockingly fast center fielder, Revere stole 44 bases in 2008, giving him 65 in just 133 minor league games. His plate discipline and strike zone judgement both improved this season, and while he doesn't walk as often as you'd like a player of his profile to, there are two things that currently help off-set that fact. First, he's a difficult player to strike out, getting sent down on strikes in just 8.3% of his plate appearances this season. Second, he's a speedy contact hitter. 15% of his balls in play were line drives, and in spite of 62% of his balls in play being ground balls he still managed a .414 BABIP. Right now his speed hels off-set the low walk rate, but hopefully as he develops he'll be able to augment the speed with better strike zone judgement as well. In spite of nearly slugging .500 he doesn't have much power, and considering his profile an ISO of .118 (like he posted with Beloit) could very well be a constant. In the field he's growing, still adjusting to better hitters and getting good reads off wooden bats, but as long as he continues to develop his very impressive skills he'll be just fine. Revere has a nice arm, and with his speed should continue to cover some very impressive ground in the outfield.

Runners-up: Dustin Martin (24, AA), Michael Harrington (22, R)

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Comments

Ben Revere's arm

Is it actually nice? I’ve heard the words ‘noodle,’ and even worse, ‘Damonesque’ used to describe it. I guess my question is: when he gets to the bigs, will it play in center?

by OldDutchPots on Sep 14, 2008 10:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I’ve heard his arm decribed as “pathetic”

by wcooley on Sep 15, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd read

“average”…and equated it to “nice”. Probably a bad choice of words, but that’s what I get for putting a positive spin on something mediocre.

by Jesse on Sep 15, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder

if arms can be taught, I mean beyond a certain level. I realize that better technique can be taught, but great arms might be a gift from the Gods

by wcooley on Sep 15, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On some level I think you're

on the mark with the idea that good arms are just one of those things you can have a natural talent with. But I do think that a 20-year old can get stronger so that he can throw harder and further, and also that technique can be improved. I think it’s likely that he’ll never have a great arm, but I think he can get a bit better.

by Jesse on Sep 15, 2008 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry Jesse,

didn’t mean to jump on you for it. I figure everyone here already knows what these guys do well and knowing what they don’t gives us something else to kill time talking about.

I’ve worried about the arm thing pushing him to left, and if that happens he loses a fair bit of value. I’ve wondered about 2B being a possibility, but if it was, the Twins would’ve already done it. Plus, after Cuddyer, I don’t think anyone’s too anxious to see good hitting prospects jerked around too much.

As to whether arms can be taught: maybe. Some people just don’t throw hard, but some people have really bad mechanics that sap strength from their throws. I’ve never looked into this much for fielders, but I know that a pitcher can add significant velocity to their fastball with some mechanical tweaks, and I see no reason why the same cannot be said for outfielders. I don’t know if this is the case for Revere, I’ve never seen him throw in person or on video, so it’s possible he just has a weak arm.

Even in LF, he’s still a pretty good prospect.

by OldDutchPots on Sep 15, 2008 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Arms can't be taught

I’m of the opinion that he might get better, but he will never have a center fielder’s arm. If a kid pitcher tops out at 86, you might be able to get his fastball in the 88-90 range through exercise regimens. But he’ll never have a plus fastball. The same principle goes for outfield arms. Revere might develop a better arm than Shannon Stewart or Rondell White had, but he’ll never have an arm like any of the outfielders on the Twins right now.

Occasionally a guy like Damon makes it in center with a poor arm. But considering that Hicks has the strongest outfield arm in the organization (including the majors), it’s unlikely Revere will be a center fielder in this organization. That’s why I rate him behind Hicks. He might be a better pure hitter, but he only has three plus tools (two plus-plus tool, his contact skills and his speed). Hicks and Morales have five tools apiece. Morales has plus-plus power and Hicks has plus-plus speed and a plus-plus arm.

Sometime in the next decade we could see Hicks in center, Revere in left and Morales in right.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 15, 2008 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Couldn't teach "arm" to Johnny Damon

He worked like hell when he was coming up with KC, but his arm never got any stronger, although that’s just part of the equation.

Defensive work also involves learning to know when to charge the ball, and how to come up throwing. Charging the ball and being able to throw while you’re gaining on second base, obviously, makes your arm better.

You also can “improve your arm” by catching and throwing like Kirby Puckett. His arm was good, but overrated because he was accurate, but more importantly because he was remarkable at positioning himself under the ball and releasing that ball quickly. He did it the way “they used to to do it.” You almost never see an outfielder today who knows how to do this, and it’s huge regardless how good your arm is, but is a particular equalizer for those with a weak arm.

Of course, as Delmon Young for one has shown, a fine arm isn’t much good if you aren’t interested in the cutoff man or throwing to the right base.

The stolen base totals are kind of a joke at Revere’s level. There are just way too many catchers who are overmatched, and lots more guys who are awful at holding runners, in rookie and A ball.

by Johnny Safron on Sep 15, 2008 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Getting rid of it

Good points all around. But I wonder if you can learn accuracy and a quick release. Go-Go has a very good arm, but it seems like he takes a long time to get rid of the ball with his exaggerated crow-hop and slight hesitation in his mechanics.

by wcooley on Sep 16, 2008 7:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

I’m sure you can learn these things, but arm strength gets you assists, fundamentals rarely do. I remember commenting on Stewart’s throwing fundamentals. He had the weakest arm I have ever seen in the outfield, but he always got himself in position to throw quickly and his throws were often right on the bag. Even so, he did not have many outfield assists despite everybody running on him.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 16, 2008 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is

There is obviously some intense upside among our bottom level outfielders. Some of those Rookie Ball lines are much better as well when you consider the GCL is highly pitcher skewed and the average hitters have like a .630 OPS. In that context, Hicks is hitting like Arod down there.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Sep 15, 2008 4:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting that this was your top 5:

I have my preliminary rankings completed. The top minor league outfielder in my year end analysis was Denard Span, who played about half the season in Rochester and we all can probably agree……..he ain’t goin back.

The next top 5 in my annual rankings where: Ben Revere (#2), Garrett Jones (#5), Dustin Martin (#12), David Winfree (#13) and Joe Gaetti (#14).

Jones was an outfielder about 90% of the time this season in Rochester and Winfree played right field nearly all of the season…until he was hit by a pitch and missed the last ten games or so. Joe Gaetti only played in a couple games, thus, his numbers are based on his play prior to joining the Twins.

Everyone is aware that even though everything was tweaked again this year, my ranking system has a substantial deduction for lower levels of play. Tosoni would take an additional hit for missing much of the season. The rankings (position players only) of the players you have were: Bigley (#30), Hicks (#27), Tosoni (#17) and Morales (#19). Rankings of #17 and #19 for Tosoni and Morales is extremely high considering that Tosoni played so little and Morales was at ETon.

By the way, Ozzie Lewis battled an injury the entire year and missed almost half the season. Same was the case with Benson who had back problems when he played and was on the DL about half the season. Brandon Roberts did miss nearly the entire season coming off the DL for only the last few weeks of the season. I don’t think it is fair to these fine young men to refer to being injured as having “disappointed or stagnant” seasons.

by roger13 on Sep 15, 2008 7:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I didn't know about Ozzie's injury,

but I did know about Roberts. I probably should have said “stagant and disappointing”, to align Benson with “stagnant” and Roberts with “disappointing”, because that’s what I meant. Roberts being hurt most of the year definitely counts as disappointing in my book.

As always, I’m looking forward to your rankings!

by Jesse on Sep 15, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good list, different order

I wouldn’t rank Revere as highly simply because of the arm issue. The arm makes him a left field prospect, like Shannon Stewart, which is still awfully good, but not on the level of Morales or Hicks, IMHO.

I would also rate Hicks higher than Tosoni simply because of age/level. If Tosoni hadn’t missed a huge part of the season, it would be a different story.

Roger, I know Jones and Winfree played in the outfield, but if they could really play the outfield, they’d be in line for a major league job. I don’t think they will ever be anything but a DH on a regular basis if either of them ever makes it to the majors. I would say the same thing about Lis, who played left field in New Britain. Imagine a Lis, Martin, and Winfree outfield and you know why the New Britain pitching staff suffered.

Gaetti and Martin are different stories because they can at least play the corners. Lis, Jones and Winfree are tree stumps with willow wisp arms.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 15, 2008 11:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Young hitters

It is, as Roger alludes to, important to note that all of these guys are in rookie or A ball. This is not promising for our team. The problem is the low survival rate of good low level prospects to good major league players. CMath referred to a future outfield of Hicks, Rever and Morales. The problem is that the odds aren’t in your favor when you’re counting on your three top rookie ball players to still be as good of prospects 3-4 years later.
There are a couple of reasons for that. First, are injuries. One of these guys may get injured and never be quite the same. Second is physical development. We all hope that each of these guys (esp Morales and Hicks), develop strength like Beltran, but it might not happen, at least not for all of the. Third, and most important, is the fact that stat lines in low levels don’t tell you certain things. For instance, as Johnny Safron noted, steals levels don’t make sense, b/c pitchers and catchers havne’t learned to stop it yet. Bunting defense is another. Low level infielders aren’t good at fielding bunts yet, so Hicks and Revere probably both have highly inflated BAs. This probably also brings in the defenses, helping them sneak ground balls out of the infield (see Revere’s.414 BABIP). They also aren’t seeing pitchers with great breaking balls yet. Some guys just turn out to be good fastball hitters, but can’t hack it at the big leagues.

So, all I’m saying is that it concerns me that we are so optimistic about our OF prospects, even though they are all at such low levels. I think that we should be optimistic that 1-2 of them turn into great outfielders, but for 3 of them to turn into studs would be pretty unusual.

Last comment – I’m not that concerned about Revere’s arm. Putouts are the most fun play to watch in baseball, but I think they are one of the least impactful tools. If Revere can cover more ground than Hicks, then Revere goes to CF. Far more balls will be turned into outs by getting to them earlier than will be by throwing out a daring runner.

by snolls on Sep 16, 2008 10:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Injuries yes, numbers no

If it was just a question of numbers vs age, I would agree with the assessment about Rookie ball numbers.One reason I’m not as high on Bigley is he was old for the level and he was not rated that highly coming into the draft. But the three top draft choices have all-world tools. Hicks was rated a top 10 prospect in the draft by a lot of smart people and he did not disappoint in rookie ball. Just ask Jake Mauer: He’ s a heck of a prospect. Morales was a steal of a third-round pick, and a lot of smart scouts rave about his tools. And Revere has a lot of tools as well.

I agree that injuries result in a lot of attrition. But as long as they have health, numbers, tools and age in their favor, their chances of being at least solid major leaguers is pretty good.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 16, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs