My 2009 fantasy

by cmathewson on Sep 16, 2008 10:51 AM EDT Comment 40 comments

I posted this over at Howard's blog. But I wanted to publish it here as well.

In the midst of the tightest pennant race in recent memory, one needs diversions to beat the stress, especially after looking feeble against rookie pitchers. The diversion of choice for me: Thinking about what the Twins can do in the offseason to turn a contending team into a championship team for 2009.

The good news is the Twins are in a position where a few moves would make them the favorite in the division. The starting staff looks set with five solid starters and several arms in waiting. The bullpen should be improved with the return of Pat Neshek. And, aside from the left side of the infield, the team has solid to great options at every position. Punto and Buscher have some offensive skills, but their defense isn’t up to snuff; neither looks like an everyday player, though they would make decent bench options if affordable.

It looks like all the team needs to do is acquire a short stop and a third baseman with championship pedigree to become the favorites. Easier said than done: You would have to have a short memory to forget the Everette/Lamb or Castro/Batista fiascoes. The signature aspect of those two fiascoes is they acquired the players on the cheap. Championship-caliber players require more than a low-budget free agent signing. They likely will require giving up some good talent in trades.

So what do these stress busting daydreams consist in? A left side with Cristian Guzman and Adrian Beltre. Imaging Beltre in the middle of the order and a rock over at third. Imaging Guzman paired with Gomez at the bottom of the order and paired with Casilla up the middle. That is a championship-caliber infield.

So how do you get them? At the risk of scorn, let me suggest that the Twins have a surpluss of what the Nationals don’t have. Why don’t we send them Boof and Humber for Guzzy? They need pitching and these guys need an opportunity to start at the majors. As for Beltre, the Mariners have a great third-base prospect in the high minors. What they do need is an outfielder to replace Ibanez, who will leave for greener pastures. So how about Cuddyer straight up for Beltre? Perhaps you would need to throw in a prospect to even out the deal. But that would make the dollars work and satisfy the Mariners’ need for a high quality veteran.

Imagine this line-up:

1. Span RF
2. Casilla 2b
3. Mauer C
4. Morneau 1b
5. Beltre 3b
6. Kubel DH
7. Young LF
8. Guzman SS
9. Gomez CF

That’s a championship-caliber line-up that will win more of these close games that we have been struggeling with down the stretch.

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Guzman?

Were you serious about that? Guzman is talented, but he only plays well in contract years.

by TMW on Sep 16, 2008 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Injuries

I think he’s matured some. He didn’t sulk much this year. His only playing well in contract years is as much a feature of injuries as anything. The two years in the past nine in which he has been healthy, he’s been a disruptive force at the plate and a stabilizing force on the field.

In 2001, he was an all-star as a 20-year-old, where he hurt his shoulder. He was never the same in the field or at the plate until he finally had surgery and missed most of 2007. This year, he was 100% for the first time since 2001, and he was a beast.

But, if you’ve got a better option I’m all ears.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 16, 2008 11:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Guzman's numbers

have been good the past two years…the whole question is will/can he keep it up? I’m warming to the idea, but only if he comes cheap.

by Adam Peterson on Sep 16, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree on Beltre

although I don’t think Cuddyer, or even Cuddyer plus a prospect is going to get it done. I’m taking a leap of misguided faith here, but considering the horrible contracts Seattle’s given out lately, I doubt they’d want to take on another big one in Cuddyer. I suspect it’s going to take a starting pitcher (Perkins or Blackburn) and possibly someone like Pridie to get Beltre. I’d trade Perkins and Pridie for him.

I’m not much of a Guzman fan, but he may be worth a flyer if it means Bonser-Humber. If we gave up Humber, Bonser and one of our starters, we’d need another pitcher and still have the OF/DH logjam (a nice problem to have…).

by Adam Peterson on Sep 16, 2008 12:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Perkins + Pridie

For Beltre? If we could sign him to an extension (if I’m not mistaken, we have no good 3B options in the high minors) I’d be for it. Unfortunately, he’s a Boras client and next year/$12m is all that’s left on his contract per Cot’s.

Perkins for one year of 3B solidness (and don’t get me wrong; I’d love to have Beltre here) seems too steep to me.

formerly known in these parts as adamb

by ravenfly on Sep 16, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Beltre's Contract

That’s a tough one. On one hand, we could look to extend him before the season, something like 2 more years, $28M, but that would remove the incentive for a contract push.

Agree that Perkins for one year of Beltre seems steep. I’d love to see us try with Bonser-Pridie or Bonser-Duensing or something like that, but I doubt it would be enough.

by Adam Peterson on Sep 16, 2008 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

none?

I’ll take my chances on Luke Hughes, Brian Buscher and Danny Valencia rather than give Beltre that kind of money!

by SethSpeaks on Sep 16, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ditto.

I’m really looking forward to seeing how Hughes does in Rochester next year. He could make his MLB debut next season. I know his defense is a rough spot, but he’s turned into a pretty good hitter these last two seasons. If he comes out next summer and continues to show improvement and an ability to consistently hit triple-A pitching…bring him up.

And yeah, Valencia is on the way too. The whole idea of the Twins having a third baseman of the future in the system could actually come to fruition over the next two years.

by Jesse on Sep 16, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

Third base looks a lot more promising at the high levels (Valencia, Hughes) and in the majors (Buscher, Harris) than it did going into the year. I’d put 3B at a lower priority than SS due to lack of quality SS help at the higher levels. I’m not sold that Plouffe is an answer, and I’m not sold on going into the year with a Casilla-Tolbert or a Casilla-Tolbert-Punto combo either…

by Adam Peterson on Sep 16, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I certainly agree

The Twins need a SS for ’09 and beyond.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 16, 2008 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like the contract

I mean, if you swap out Cuddyer plus a prospect for Beltre, it’s only a little more money than we’re committed to in 2009 and it frees more money in 2010. To me, the one-year deal is a plus in this case. What the Twins need is a bridge to Danny Valencia, who is a year away, by my estimates. I can’t think of a better bridge to Valencia than a healthy Beltre in a contract year. Let’s say he walks at the end of the year, he’s a Type A free agent who brings back at least as much value as Cuddyer has right now. In short, I think he’s a great fit for this team.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 17, 2008 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know it's not popular

but why not put Cuddles at 3B? Is the conventional wisdom that his hitting suffers by playing 3B really accurate?

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Sep 16, 2008 1:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Same here

I’ve heard that supposedly his left-ear deafness made him uncomfortable in the field, and he was taking that with him into the batter’s box, but I’ve never read that actually from Cuddyer, only from posts here, so I don’t know exactly how accurate that sentiment is.

It doesn’t appear that the Twins see him as an infielder (other than a backup 1B) anymore, though – I haven’t heard any rumblings of this apart from you and I positing it here, and when I tried to propose that the Twins put him back at 2B for a few games when there were middle infield injuries (remember, at one point Cuddy was the one who was going to deliver us from Rivas), the virtual laughter from the rest of the posters here nearly crashed my internet connection.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Sep 16, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Virtual laughter can be harsh, too true.

I just think it’d have to be an extremely bad situation to move a guy into a position where he no longer belongs. On some levels I think most players could play most positions in a pinch, but that doesn’t mean they should. Cuddyer isn’t quite that case, since he does have experience, but it was three years ago now.

by Jesse on Sep 16, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I expect the Twins...

…to be relatively quiet this winter. And I for one am perfectly happy with that. What I would like to see and I suspect they will attempt to do is get two players: 1) A very good short reliever, either as a free-agent or more likely via a trade; and 2) Sign a solid AAAA catcher as I suspect that they cannot and will not count on Morales. Expect they will also sign a few veteran minor league guys to help Rochester and in hopes that one turns out to be a pleasant surprise.

Personally, I like the team they have right now. Five solid outfielders to alternate between the three outfield positions and DH, Morneau at first with Casilla, Punto, Buscher, Harris and Tolbert in the infield. Look for a battle next spring as to who will be the next guy to come up to play infield or 3B…could be Macri or maybe Hughes will be ready after winter ball.

by roger13 on Sep 16, 2008 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can't tolerate more of Punto starting at short

I would accept a Buscher/Macri platoon. But if Punto is the starting shortstop on opening day 2009, I will need to go on antidepressants. There is no way this team can win long term with him over there.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 16, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

CMath...

…I have a bigger problem with Punto running the bases than I do with him at shortstop. And it just hasn’t been the last few games where he has made mistakes that shouldn’t happen in T-Ball, well at least Little League. It seems the problem is that as a reserve Punto is an asset to this team. Unfortunately, whether circumstances dictate of Gardy creates them, he starts the season as a utility player and ends up a regular.

by roger13 on Sep 16, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Punto

It’s not just the bases. He makes a lot of errors because he goes for style points over fundamentals. And Morneau has saved him at least a dozen times this year. He’s just not a good everyday player. And he’s probably too expensive as a utility player at this point. Plus he’s developed attitude issues if he doesn’t play everyday. I think his days are numbered with the Twins. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but as long as we’re fantasizing about 2009, why not envision a Punto-less team?

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 16, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aaahhhh

Imagining that just made my day!

by Adam Peterson on Sep 16, 2008 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Punto

I think it’s a very valid theory that Bill Smith HAS TO let Nick Punto go, even if he offers to come back for $1 million, just to protect Gardy from himself. If he is on the roster, Gardy will find a way to play him.

by SethSpeaks on Sep 16, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, somewhat

I expect we’ll be quieter than I would hope, but I suspect we’ll address two of the following three items

Bullpen – 8th inning setup guy. Agree, likely through a trade considering the number of teams looking for help.

SS – I’m ever the optimist that we’ll let Punto go. I like Tolbert, but only as a utility guy, not as an every day starter at SS.

3B – Harris / Buscher platoon is the going in position. Fielding deficiencies may prompt the FO to bring someone in.

Do you think we’d grab a AAAA catcher rather than exercise the option on Redmond’s contract?

by Adam Peterson on Sep 16, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Redmond ain't going anywhere

And I think Morales will be back in AAA next year. He had successful ankle surgery—something he should have had the day after that injury this time last year.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 16, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

I believe we will, and at this point probably should keep Redmond

by Adam Peterson on Sep 16, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I might be alone here

but if Adam Everett’s cheap (which he will be), I’d have no problem with the Twins resigning him. I’d much prefer him and his offensive deficiencies at short, than Punto and his defensive deficiencies. Something people need to keep in mind is that Punto’s a free agent.

by OldDutchPots on Sep 16, 2008 3:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I just feel like Punto and Evererett’s career number’s aren’t that much different. And IF (Big If) Everett appears healthy, he’s a big upgrade defensively. But I think if either is our choice we should keep both around in case one of them fails miserably.

by lookatthosetwins on Sep 16, 2008 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's a limit on the pay cut Everett can take

He makes $2.8M this year, and I believe the maximum pay cut if Everett resigns with us would be 20%. Same situation as we saw for Monroe, I believe.

No thanks. If we were a National League team, perhaps…

by Adam Peterson on Sep 16, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure

that the 20% thing applies only to arbitration cases. At the end of the year, we can offer arbitration to Everett. If he accepts, then I think according to the CBA, the arbitrator can’t reward him more than 20% less than he made the previous season. But we can also choose not to offer him arbitration and just try to work something out without an arbitrator.

This is a weak SS free agent market, so I don’t know what a plus plus defender (assuming he’s healthy, which since coming back he’s looked to me) with no bat can get this off-season

by OldDutchPots on Sep 16, 2008 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not a totally bad idea

Everett’s season was ruined by injury. I think he could be functional at SS at a bargain price. That is expecting everyone else to produce, of course.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 16, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Would Prefer

Casey Blake at 3rd Base or even a Joe Crede or Hank Blalock if they can stay healthy

by Tony_O on Sep 16, 2008 4:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Please not Blalock

Blalock has a career 700 OPS away from Arlington – his superficially good numbers are completely a product of that bandbox. For comparison, a 700 OPS is worse than Nick Punto has put up two of the last three seasons. I’d much rather have Buscher there for less than 1/10 the price, and spend the remaining money on a shortstop.

Crede and Blake I’m much more intrigued by. I also like the Beltre idea, but he is almost certainly a one-year rental, so I’d be loathe to give up too much for him.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Sep 16, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Buscher > Blalock

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 16, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great minds

I was thisclose to using that exact subject line for my post.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Sep 16, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep. Blake or Crede might be possibilities

If relatively cheap and only for one year, possibly two.

No on Blalock.

by Adam Peterson on Sep 16, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guzman

I like the idea of reacquiring Guzman, now that he appears to have finished the “terrible” phase of his career. He was a fairly popular Twin, too, at least for a while, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that played into the team’s personnel decisions a bit (see Guardado, Eddie).

I was all excited that your idea would bring about a revival of the old “League of Nations” infield from 2001-2004, but Beltre is Dominican, not Venezuelan.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Sep 16, 2008 5:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Of the 3B options

coming up in the off-season, I’m all about going after a big name—whether that’s Beltre, or yeah Crede is a good idea, although with him I’d prefer a deal that was highly incentive-laden…which would probably price him out of MN’s range immediately. Blalock I’ve soured to. Casey Blake would be an interesting look, but I’m not opposed to looking at trading for Garrett Atkins, either.

Which is a long way of saying I’m open to a great many options. Including Brian Buscher.

by Jesse on Sep 16, 2008 5:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Casey Blake

i disagree with some of the people, keep him for 3 or more years here, He can Play 3rd, can also Spell somebody in the Outfield, and Can Spell Morneau when Gardsy wants J-Money to DH.

by Tony_O on Sep 16, 2008 6:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Beltre Train

most likely left in July. I think the Twins won’t be willing to give up what they need to this offseason. However, I could see him being available again come next June/July if he’s needed. I think it would have been worth it to give up something significant like a Perkins/Blackburn for him this year since we would have had him for the playoff push + 1 more year.

I heard a rumor that Crede might be willing to go for a 1 year contract to prove his health. Now there’s something I’d be very interested in. This was probably just random speculation following his being shut down by the White Sox but still, it would make sense. If he can play one year and light it up/stay healthy he could bring some big money in 2010. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Sep 16, 2008 9:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Payroll

Does anyone know what the Twins have for payroll flexibility this coming year? I haven’t had a chance to actually pull the numbers together (maybe that will be a FanPost if I get some time tonight), but a quick scan at Cot’s Contracts showed fewer arbitration raises than I expected (Kubel, Guerrier, and whoever is newly-eligible this year, maybe Baker or Boof or someone else I’m forgetting) and quite a few contracts coming off the books (Rincon, Monroe, Punto, Everett, Reyes). Considering the Twins came in well under budget this year, I’d hope a $10-15 million/year acquisition wouldn’t be out of the question.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Sep 17, 2008 11:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

chris davis

Here’s something I wrote up last week about my offseason hopes. Summary: trade a pitcher or two in order to get Chris Davis (a great hitting 3B from Texas, who can hit LHP and protect Morneau), try to find a setup reliever (in case Neshek/Guerrier/Crain don’t recover their previous dominance), and then get a good fielding SS without worrying as much about batting (if we can get Chris Davis or someone who hits as well as he does).

And even though I think Perkins is the starter out of the 5 who could/should be moved to the pen, he’s probably not a bad 5th starter, and he might not be that much better in relief. I really think the Twins need to be figuring out what to do with Humber, and quickly. He should have good trade value, as would Perkins (I would sell high on him, local guy or no). And we have more than enough younger pitchers ready to step up. Otherwise, sell high with Humber (and be willing to throw in Boof if he really wants to start, or both Humber and Perkins to get some hitting).

After scouring the potential targets for a trade, I’d say trade a pitcher (maybe even two) and Buscher to Texas for Chris Davis (3b/1b), depending on whether he can continue to play 3b (and doesn’t have to switch to 1b). I would try Boof and Buscher first, but would certainly give them Perkins and Buscher and maybe even Humber and Buscher. Here’s the guy’s stats, and Texas has enough good hitters but needs pitchers.

Chris Davis (22 years old): http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/davisch02.shtml
Main stats: OPS = .863 (BA .275 / OBP .325 / SLG .538)

Chris Davis in the Minors: Career OPS = .952 (.302 / .357 / .595)
2008 AAA, OPS = 1.087 (.333 / .402 / .685)
No Minor League Splits Available

His 2008 MLB RHP/LHP splits:
RHP: .277 / ..328 / .511 for an OPS of .839 (198 plate appearances)
LHP: .269 / .318 / .603 for an OPS of .920 (85 plate appearances)

Brian Buscher’s OPS splits:
RHP: .335 / .375 / .463 for an OPS of .838 (185 PAs)
LHP: .214 / .250 / .214 for an OPS of .464 (44 plate appearances, which is a small sample size, but not good enough for the MLB)

Now, Chris Davis is a good young hitter and it might be hard to pry him from the Rangers (see here: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/07/rangers-rumors.html : on the bright side, dealing him would make their decision on Byrd’s option easier), but I feel like the Twins are in a perfect position to do so—we could make another Delmon for Garza type trade (good young hitter for good young pitcher/s) and come out far enough ahead that we could give up Boof/Humber, Perkins, and Buscher for Davis.

Otherwise, I see the best batter we could easily add to our lineup being Big Donkey Adam Dunn at DH, who could give more protection to Morneau than Kubel does (and yes, I do like Kubel, but his production is probably not going to be as good as Dunn), but Dunn is still a LHB, which doesn’t help. Dunn puts up .900 rather than .800+ OPS numbers and will likely average 30 more RBI each season than Kubel, so why wouldn’t we try to get him on the free agent market? If we have the chance, add both Dunn and Davis. But at least Davis (and hope that Cuddyer can return to 2006 performance levels, or at least help give Justin some protection (I’m not sure he’s going to do either one as it is).

by brettw on Sep 17, 2008 6:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff

I like Chris Davis, think he’d be a great fit here. I’m a bit concerned about his fielding at 3B (.733 ZR, lower than both Buscher and Harris), but he’s a young RH slugger. If I were Texas, Buscher and Boof or Humber would not get it done. I’d want at least Perkins for Davis. If I’m BS, I’d do it.

I’d also consider doing a larger deal that might make sense for both sides. Michael Young has a large contract ($16M per year through 2013), but Texas may be interested in turning him into more pitching. Something like Buscher/Harris/Boof/Perkins might make sense for both sides. We don’t seem interested in playing Harris, and we’d shore up the left side of our infield. I doubt our ownership would do it, but it would send quite a message to the fans.

I could get jiggy with a lineup of…

1. Span RF
2. Young SS
3. Mauer C
4. Morneau 1B
5. Davis 3B
6. Kubel DH
7. Young LF
8. Casilla 2B
9. Gomez CF
Bench: Redmond, Tolbert, Pridie, Ruiz, Cuddyer

This would put a lot of eggs in the Humber basket, but with Mulvey/Duensing/Swarzak sitting in AAA, I think we’ve got options at #5.

I like Dunn, but only if he’s a DH. In order to make that work, we’d probably have to move two of D.Young/Gomez/Span/Kubel/Cuddyer. Heck, Kubel-Young could get us another starting pitcher and/or shore up the bullpen. San Diego? San Francisco (Cain?)

by Adam Peterson on Sep 19, 2008 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs