Preliminary Twins 2009 Payroll Forecast

by Jesse on Sep 18, 2008 11:38 AM EDT Comment 17 comments

Feel free to make corrections or adjustments where necessary.

We'll break camp with the starting pitchers on board for next year, which will likely be the same five we're witnessing close out 2008. The only way a change is likely would be in the case of A) a trade, B) and injury or C) someone like Philip Humber is too amazing in spring training to ignore...and that's not really likely.

Pos	Age	Name	'09 Salary	Status
SP	25	Francisco Liriano	$2.00 MM	1st Arb
SP	27	Scott Baker	$800 K	1st Arb
SP	25	Kevin Slowey	$420 K	Serf
SP	27	Nick Blackburn	$420 K	Serf
SP	26	Glen Perkins	$450 K	Serf
Total			$4,090,000

From there we'll move onto the catchers, which should be one more place where questions will be kept to a minumum. Mike Redmond has an option for 2009 worth $950,000, with a $100,000 buyout. Even at his age, it's highly likely the Twins will pick up the option, meaning that unless the Twins re-evaluate Joe Mauer's contract in the off-season we'll kick off the last season in the Metrodome with the catchers looking something like this fiscally.

Pos	Age	Name	'09 Salary	Status
C	26	Joe Mauer	$10.50 MM	Contract
BU C	38	Mike Redmond	$950 K	Contract
Total			$11,450,000

Moving into the outfield, a majority of these names won't be changing, either. The only question will be how the Twins want to handle the position in center field. If they feel like Carlos Gomez is ready, he'll likely get the nod with Denard Span playing fourth outfielder and Jason Kubel a backup who gets most of his time at designated hitter. If they feel like Span is the best option to start in center, Gomez might spend a little time in Rochester so that he can continue to play everyday; in this scenario, we could see Jason Pridie or another utlitity outfield option on the bench.

Pos	Age	Name	'09 Salary	Status
LF	23	Delmon Young	$2.50 MM	1st Arb
CF	23	Carlos Gomez	$420 K	Serf
RF	30	Michael Cuddyer	$6.75 MM	Contract
BU OF	25	Denard Span	$400 K	Serf
BU OF/DH	27	Jason Kubel	$2.00 MM	2nd Arb
Total			$12,070,000

Now it's time to get to some of the real questions. With Joe Nathan and Jesse Crain as the only relief pitchers under contract for 2009, there could be a lot of changes. For consistency's sake, which is something we know the Twins like, we can pretty accurately guess that both Pat Neshek and Matt Guerrier will return. Even Boof Bonser can be seen as the long man, leaving one or two bullpen positions available. Next summer's relief corps currently stacks up as a relatively expensive piece of the puzzle, even outside of the closer.

Pos	Age	Name	'09 Salary	Status
CL	34	Joe Nathan	$11.25 MM	Contract
SU	28	Pat Neshek	$800 K	1st Arb
MR	27	Jesse Crain	$1.70 MM	Contract
MR	30	Matt Guerrier	$1.20 MM	2nd Arb
LR	27	Boof Bonser	$700 K	1st Arb
Total			$15,650,000

With the dollars racking up, although not as quickly as you might think, we make our final pit stop with the infield. There are a couple of clear answers, a couple of plug-ins that could go either way, and then of course there's Mike Lamb's salary, which the Twins are still responsible for even though he's playing for another team. It didn't seem like a horrible signing at the time, and even with the Twins picking up his tab it's not damaging thanks to how the payroll is structured next season, but it's still money that's tied up.

Pos	Age	Name	'09 Salary	Status
1B	28	Justin Morneau	$10.60 MM	Contract
2B	24	Alexi Casilla	$400 K	Serf
3B	28	Brian Buscher	$400 K	Serf
3B	33	Mike Lamb	$3.00 MM	Contract
Total			$14,400,000

For those of you who didn't count, that's 20 spots on the 25 man roster (we don't include Lamb, of course), leaving obvious caps at second base, backup infield as well as depth for the bullpen. So who are our in-house options?

Feel free to discuss your ideas, suggestions and alternatives below; I've scheduled my list of probable roster fillers to post after tonight's game against the Rays.

In the meantime, I'll do the California Math once more. By my estimated payroll, the Twins will committ roughly $56.66 million to these 21 players. When you take away Lamb, there are five spots available; how do you fill out the roster?

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You know what, I think I'll just post the roster fillers right here.

It’s all one discussion anyway.

Infield

Nick Punto: LNP is making $2.4 million this season, meaning that with a maximum 20% pay cut would make about $1.92 million at a minimum next season with the Twins. He’ll be 31, and while he’s one of the more frustrating players for the fans to watch he is versatile. And the Twins love their versatility. Whether we like it or not, Punto is an option to return, although there are cheaper in-house options who could provide many of the same skills.

Matt Tolbert: For the major-league minimum, at 27 next year Tolbert can play third, short and second, giving him an edge defensively. His OPS+ this year is 97, so just below replacement level and perfectly acceptable for a backup infielder. He’s also a switch-hitter.

Matt Macri: Also 27 next season, Macri is primarily a third baseman but has also seen action at second and first this year. He’s 11-for-33 at the plate with a homer and a pair of walks, and next season would require nothing further than the major league minimum as compensation.

Brendan Harris: A free agent who’s making about $430,000 this season, who could be brought back for probably a slight raise. He’ll be just 28, he’ll be familar to the team and to the fans, and apart from striking out more isn’t really having a year too much different than the one he had last year with the Rays. He’s also the most experienced of the versatile infielders, logging over 200 innings at second, third and shortstop for the Twins in 2008.

Randy Ruiz: Plausible as a bat off the bench who could threaten to hit for power, even if he actually doesn’t in the long run. He’d give the illusion of strength off the pine until he could prove it true or false. He’ll be 31, hits right-handed and for the major league minimum could spell Kubel at designated hitter. For a guy who would maybe get five at-bats per week, he’s not a bad option.

Adam Everett: He’ll be 32 and coming off one of the worst seasons for injuries one could have without actually being lost for the entire year, and with a maximum 20% paycut would still need to make about $2.24 million in ‘09. And unless the Twins are desperate for an everyday shortstop because they have no faith for in-house options, that’s likely too high of a price.

Outfield

Garrett Jones: Likely won’t be in the Minnesota system in 2009.

Jason Pridie: He’s 0-for-7 with a walk and a strikeout in his cup of coffee with the Twins, and that’s no sample to go by. He did steal 25 bases in Rochester this year (74% success rate), while hitting .270/.305/.435. There are some tools there, but it’s hard to see him being anything more than a marginal fourth outfielder at this juncture. But, he can play all three positions. Remember our talk about versatility?

Bobby Kielty: It doesn’t seem likely that he’ll kick around Rochester hoping for a call-up, but worse things could happen. He does hit lefties well, but he’ll also be 32 next season and two years removed from seeing major league pitching.

Darnell McDonald: He had his shot in 2007, and I doubt 2009 would be his year. He hit .268/.334/.447 with the Red Wings this year, and that’s not great. He’d be 30, he hits right-handed, and I doubt he’d require more than the major league minimum.
Relief Pitchers

Eddie Guardado: Would he come back? I’m not sure the Twins would go in that direction, but if they did they’d be offering a contract to a 38-year old southpaw who’s allowed more than two and a half base runners per inning pitched as a Twin.

Bobby Korecky: A favorite choice quite likely, who will be playing as a 29-year old in 2009, making the major league minimum. A good space-filler, but not the impact arm the bullpen needs.

Craig Breslow: With Dennys Reyes not under contract, Breslow could be the Twins’ officialy LOOGY of 2009. As a Twins this season, he’s struck out 29 in 35 innings, posted a 1.02 WHIP, and he’ll be 28 next season. He’d likely make around $420,000.

Philip Humber: The Twins like him as a starter, and if they do take on Boof as a long man/spot starter, I doubt they’ll waste Humber in the bullpen. He’ll likely bide his time starting in triple-A.

Dennys Reyes: I suppose he’s still an option, and an affordable one at that. He will be 32 next season, and while he could make as little as $800,000 if he takes the maximum 20% pay reduction as a free agent, he’ll likely be looking for a raise.

Jose Mijares: He’s be just 24 next season, and would be a southpaw working for baseball’s minimum wage. Which is slightly different than our minimum wage, but relatively speaking he’s cheap. If the Twins don’t bite on Reyes, Guardado or Breslow, they very well could go with Mijares. They might go with him anyway, even if they pick one of the others.

Kevin Mulvey: He’ll be 24 next summer, and after a pretty solid campaign with Rochester will likely make his debut with the Twins at some point next year. If they aren’t satisfied with the relievers they’ve bred, Mulvey could be moved into a middle relief role, but as things stand he’ll likely be starting for Rochester when the summer kicks off.

Brian Duensing: He’ll be 25 next season, and as a lefty does hold some interest, but barring injuries or a tremendous spring training I’m not sure he can climb over all the pitchers in front of him.

Ricky Barrett: Barrett strikes guys out, but by the time the Twins open 2009 he’ll be 28, meaning he’s supposed to be dominating triple-A hitters. He deserves a shot at some point though, and could be one of many Rochester arms to see a few innings with the Twins at some juncture. He could be a dark-horse for the final bullpen spot.

Mariano Gomez: Yet another southpaw, who will be playing his age-26 campaign in ‘09. It’s likely he’ll remain with the Red Wings next year, in spite of a successful 2008.

Anthony Swarzak: He proved me wrong for questioning his promotion, but he’ll be just during 2009 and could use another season in the minors. It’s just as well, as it’ll not only give him more seasoning but could give the Twins some time to clear the logjam of quality pitchers in their system, one way or another.

by Jesse on Sep 18, 2008 11:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cool

isn’t Tolbert’s 97 OPS+ a little below average instead of below replacement?

Also, Humber cannot start in AA. He’s out of options.

If we do nothing else, give me Tolbert, Harris, Pridie, Humber and Breslow from that list.

by Adam Peterson on Sep 18, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You might

be right on the OPS+ bit, and I know you’re definitely right on the Humber bit. With him getting nothing more than a cup of coffee with the Twins this month I didn’t even check his service time. Good catch.

And the five you choose are pretty close to how I’d swing as well. If Humber had options I might have gone with Ricky Barrett, just to see how he does, but that’s now a moot point anyway. If he’s not traded he’ll break camp with the team; they won’t let him go after getting him for Johan unless it’s for something.

by Jesse on Sep 18, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OPS+

OPS+ is relative to league average, not adjusted for position or replacement level. I don’t really think Tolbert would keep that up over a full major league season, but if he did, he’d be well above average, much less replacement level, for a shortstop.

Also, while we’re quibbling with your word choice, I would suggest that “below replacement level” isn’t acceptable even for a backup infielder – the whole point of a “replacement player” is that it’s what you’d expect from a random street free agent or minor league callup. A guy starting the year on the roster, unless he’s a defensive wizard, should have at least somewhat higher expectations, probably somewhere between replacement level and league average.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Sep 19, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fun exercise

I did this same thing with the Twins roster in a meetin the other day using Cot’s Contracts. In my mind, the only question is at SS. (like you said, barring a trade or something)

SP – Same 5 you mention… except Liriano isn’t arb eligible, meaning he’ll be somewhere around $500K. Baker should be arb eligible, and I would expect him to be making closer to $1.5 million.

RP – Nathan, Neshek, Crain, Guerrier (who will also make significantly more, maybe $1.8-2 million. Breslow is probably a given, and with the emergence of Mijares, that makes Reyes expendable. (The only question would be Boof and Humber, both out of options. If they aren’t dealt, one could make the team in place of someone like Mijares or in case of injury) Also, I don’t think Neshek will hit arb-eligibility either.

OF – You’re right, and all five will play a bunch. Although Delmon’s big league contract runs out after this season, he can’t be arbitration eligible with just over 2 years of service time, so I think he’ll be closer to $1 million.

IF – Morneau, Casilla, Buscher and Tolbert – After that, there is the question of finding a starting SS and a possible RH platoon with Buscher (Hughes/Macri/Harris). Harris is right on the border of Super-2-dom, so that might factor in as well. I agree with the theory that they’ll let Punto go just to protect Gardy from himself.

by SethSpeaks on Sep 18, 2008 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the corrections Seth

I like the Tolbert route, because although I don’t see him as a long-term option I’m curious to see what he can do. I also think he’d be a better option than Punto, and the offense-to-defense tradeoff against Everett is worth it for me. Brendan Harris I’m not opposed to for depth though.

by Jesse on Sep 18, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Denard Span?

I’d rather based Denard Span in the starting lineup then Gomez.
What am I not seeing.. Your feedback would be welcomed..
Regards,
Brian

by MagikLair on Sep 18, 2008 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Because in spite of what we're

seeing this year, I’d be surprised if the Twins didn’t break camp with Gomez next spring. It’d go against all track records for this team…at least recently. And, if/when the Twins break camp with Gomez, he’ll be starting. They won’t want him only getting 10-15 AB’s/week.

It’s a tough situation—maybe they work a situation where there’s a bit of a rotation between the five outfielders and their four lineup spots (LF, CF, RF, DH), because if all five make the team, they all need playing time.

by Jesse on Sep 18, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Leadoff

I just can’t see them not continuing to start Span on a daily basis because of the lead off role he fills.

Oddly enough I’m starting to think Span is going to be the guy who plays almost everyday with Gomez, Kubel, Young, and Cuddy rotating around the other 3 positions. That’s between 4-5 starts a week for all of them basing on a 6 game per week average. That should be enough time for all of them to keep their stride. This combined with inevitable injuries throughout the year should keep all 5 satisfied.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Sep 18, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That could work too.

Whatever happens, it’ll be a juggling act.

by Jesse on Sep 18, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

I agree 100%. Five outfielders for four jobs is just about perfect. Inevitably, there are slumps, injuries, and other reasons why guys are out of the lineup. None of these guys are All-Stars. Rest ’em all once a week and if everybody is good, you have a great trade chip available at the deadline.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 19, 2008 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gomez and Span

I think they have to find a way to have both these guys in the same outfield together. Hence my suggestion that they trade Cuddy for a competent third baseman.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 18, 2008 5:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I question how much trade value Cuddles has right

now after a injury-riddled year, which followed a “down” year after a breakout ‘06. And if we’re going to trade for a competent player at a position of need, I’d prefer we tried it for a shortstop. The farm system actually has some promising third basemen on the way over the next couple of years, but the pot’s a little dry on shortstop prospects.

by Jesse on Sep 18, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Liriano

Will probably be short of Super-2 status and not be eligible for arbitration. That was why his agent started beating the drum for his recall.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 19, 2008 9:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

its looking like J.J. Hardy WILL be traded this offseason

he is under team control for two more seasons and would be a pretty good pickup for the Twins especially since we are looking for a good SS with good power and decent defense…

by 33MorneauMVP on Sep 19, 2008 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I work for the Brewers' AAA club....

and personally, I don’t see Hardy being dealt, unless they get a stud replacement pitcher in return at least. Alcides Escobar is damn good, but I see them finally making a switch to CF for Weeks and playing Hardy and Escobar together. We’ll see.

As for the contracts, nice work, Jesse. I really think we might see a Delmon/Beltre swap revisited, and I think I might be okay with it. It buys us another year for Hughes/Valencia, we get 2 1st rd picks essentially after 2009, we have the OF depth, and we have the money. Something like Beltre/MI prospect for Young/Guerrier I could live with, actually, and I can’t believe I’m saying that, but it doesn’t sound like the Twins really like Delmon as much as they once did.

I’d also get longterm deals done with Mauer, Liriano, and Baker asap. Those are 3 key pieces to the future of this team. Get those done and save money down the road.

I’d also look at signing Mark Ellis. He’s a type B FA most likely after this season, and was incredibly unlucky this season. Plus he’s from the area and shouldn’t require too long of a commitment or salary. And he’s a great defender at 2b (Casilla to SS). I could see something like $6 Million per for 2-3 years getting it done. Then, I’d fill out the roster from within mainly, like so:

C-Mauer, 1b-Morneau, 2b-Ellis, SS-Casilla, 3b-Beltre, LF-Span, CF-Gomez, RF-Cuddyer, DH-Kubel, Bench: Redmond (1 more year), Tolbert, Harris, Ruiz, Pridie. (Buscher/Macri; tough breaks)
Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Humber (I’d start him)
Pen: Nathan, Neshek, Boof, Crain, Mijares, Perkins, Breslow (3 lefties)

I realize that’s 26 on the roster but let’s see how it shakes out in ST. I wrote more on this in a couple of diaries to the right as well if you’re interested.

by DJSkillz on Sep 20, 2008 2:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2009 Twins

I’m new here, so feel free to beat this up.

Locks (21)

Catchers – Mauer, Redmond (Why mess up a good thing)

Infield – Morneau, Casilla, Buscher

Outfield – Span, Gomez, Cuddyer, Kubel, Young

Starting pitchers – Perkins, Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn

Relievers – Nathan, Neshek, Guerrier, Breslow, Mijares, Crain or Boof

Now for the fun part of the winter….I’d like to see them package something together to get that right handed 3rd baseman and/or a dominant 8th inning guy. The question is what to give up? I would like to think that Boof or Crain still have value…put one together with Harris and one of the minor leaguers such as Humber or Duernsing might do the trick. Beltre is interesting, but he would be a rent a player and unless Hughes is ready in two years, there isn’t much in the system at third. Getting the 8th inning pitcher may be tougher and they might have to loosen the billfold in free agency. Not sure if Neshek can do that job for a whole year,,,look how tired Guerrier got.

I personally like Punto and thinks he fills the “Twins” motto. However, Tolbert is a clone and would be a cheaper option. If they can get Hardy, take it,,,but it would probably cost us one of our starters.

Could go on all day, but here are my last four: Tolbert, Harris (If not traded), 3rd base trade?, 8th inning free agent?,

by OlivaforHallofFame on Oct 1, 2008 9:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs