Morneau becomes Mauer

by Johnny Safron on Sep 19, 2008 12:29 AM EDT Comment 14 comments

The nearly three-season long transformation of Justin Morneau into the mold of Joe Mauer as a hitter has reached a new level as 2008 concludes.

Whiffs
Morneau, first-half:1/7.5 PA

Morneau second-half whiffs: 1/12.7 PA

Mauer for the season: 1/12.2. PA

Walks
Morneau, first-half: 1/10.3 PA

Morneau, second -half: 1/8.2 PA.

Mauer: 1/7.2 PA

Posts need to be 75 words long, so here are some more words.

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Has he lost the power

that Mauer doesn’t seem to have?

by Old Twins Cap on Sep 19, 2008 1:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mauer has no power?

I guess your definition of power is home runs.

But, if you like, OK, Morneau has indeed fallen back in that category. No 30 homers for him this season. His HR/PA are back to his rookie-year level. Of course, his doubles total has tied the team record by a non-steroid user and is one under the team record among all Twins players for a single season. And his OPS-plus is career high. Doubles require power, too.

So, for those who haven’t noticed in the past three seasons, Morneau is a more complete hitter than he was before, as he has progressed to using the entire field, then to not trying to pull balls that he can’t be pulled, and realizing that balls off the wall are OK, too, just like balls over the wall. Now he is walking more and whiffing less. He will probably have career highs in RS and RBI to show for it. Also a career high in walks and a career low for a full season in whiffs.

He has gradually glided toward the Mauer end of the hitting spectrum.

by Johnny Safron on Sep 19, 2008 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

Maybe your post should be a lot longer than 75 words because I’m not really picking up on your point here.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Sep 19, 2008 10:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think his point here

is that Morneau has a better eye at the plate (like Mauer) and he is just trying to point out his whiffs and walks from earlier in the season to now. Morneau has decreased his number of whiffs, thus making the better eye at the plate plausible, but also his number of walks has gone down, which is a little surprising!

by 33MorneauMVP on Sep 19, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

walks up too

If I’m reading that right his walks went up, from one in every ten plate appearances to one in every eight plate appearances.

by by jiminy on Sep 19, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're reading that wrong

Morneau’s strikeout rate has gone down while his walk rate has gone up (1/8 > 1/10).

As for Old Twins Cap’s question, here are some power stats:

Morneau first half AB/HR: 26.07
Morneau second half AB/HR: 24.56
Mauer AB/HR: 55.3

Morneau first half ISO: 189
Morneau second half ISO: 239
Mauer ISO: 121

I noticed that Morneau’s BA is down more than thirty points from the first half to the second half (.323 to .290), fueled by a .279 BABIP. I don’t know where to find splits for LD, to check if maybe he’s just been unlucky, but I did check it out at FanGraphs, and assuming I’m reading that graph correctly, his line drive percentage did sag a bit around the middle of the year, but still not the point to expect that low a BABIP, so I think he’s been at least somewhat unlucky. Also of note: Morneau has hit a homerun on 12 of his flyballs this year, down from 16.7% each of the last two years.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Sep 19, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah I realize that now

oops! That further improves his eye…I am liking the new Morneau, except I would like to see a few more bombs…maybe he could get to 25 by the end of the season? PLEASE!

by 33MorneauMVP on Sep 19, 2008 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll get a Wiki going for you

by Johnny Safron on Sep 19, 2008 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

More bombs? More protection

Pitchers have been pitching around him all year. Get a good right-handed slugger hitting behind him, and you’ll see more bombs.

Until then, he’s taking what the pitchers give him, which means a of of line drives into the left-center gap. Hence he’s poised to break the Twins doubles record. Overall, I think he’s on his usual pace for XBH. He just has more doubles than homers.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 19, 2008 1:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I've noticed pitchers pitch around Mauer a lot too

Maybe it’s just my selection bias and not really a thing, but that’s something I can’t figure out since Morneau’s always right behind him

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Sep 19, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Simple

Mauer is pitched around constantly because teams do not want him to beat them, particularly with first open, so they will gladly walk him and take their chances at Morneau hitting into a DP. Conversely, Gardenhire feels comfortable with Mauer – the team’s best baserunner – on first, and Morneau up, particularly if there is not a runner on second. Given the number of runs this team has scored this year, Gardenhire’s comfort level is justified.

by Johnny Safron on Sep 19, 2008 8:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Teams pitch around Mauer to get to Morneau

because they’re smart.

Mauer’s still our best hitter. It makes the most sense.

by DJSkillz on Sep 20, 2008 2:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey, where have you been?

Good to see your name again!

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 20, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Morneau's a better hitter right now

I guess it depends on how you define best hitter. Technically, Mauer hits the ball more frequently than Morneau, so yeah, he’s better. Still, if I had to choose one of those players to be on my team, and they would both play DH, I would rather have Morneau. His power (extra base hits) makes him a much better addition to a lineup. Put it this way, if Mauer was hitting 4th, he still wouldn’t have the RBI’s that Morneau has, but Morneau’s BA and OBP are roughly equivalent to Mauer’s.

by snolls on Sep 21, 2008 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs