Since Minnesota and Chicago both play Detroit, KC, Toronto, and Cleveland (and each other), those basically cancel out. What remains constitutes how their schedules differ:

Minnesota: Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and KC
Chicago: Yankees, Angels, and Cleveland

Angels and Tampa are both first place teams; Baltimore and KC are worse than Yankees and Cleveland. So I’d say the schedule favors the Twins.

But there are many other variables. Is Cliff Lee pitching when you face the Indians? Are the Angels so far ahead they rest some starters? Which Yankees pitchers do you face? All those factors are more important than the name of the team on the uniform.

Regardless of schedule, though, I still think the White Sox are the clear favorites. Man for man, they are better. The Twins have converted their hits into runs at a higher rate so far, but that is likely a statistical fluke based on their unsustainable batting with runners in scoring position. I think total hitting is a better predictor of future success than RISP hitting, and their RISP BA will regress toward the mean.

Of course it’s a short enough season that anything can happen. Let’s be honest though.

I’d rather have the White Sox lineup than the Twins’. Wouldn’t you?

And I’d rather have their pitching staff too. Wouldn’t you? (this year, anyway—over the next five years youth is an asset—but five young question marks heading toward the most innings they’ve ever pitched vs. the Sox’s mix of seasoned vets and emerging young guns doesn’t look like advantage-Twins to me.)

I think the Sox SHOULD outperform the Twins the rest of the way. For now it seems like they are in a contest to out-choke each other, so who knows. But for me, the schedule favors the Twins, but the superior individual players on the Sox should outweigh that slight advantage.

I wouldn’t put any money on it though. In the end, it will probably come down to those three games head-to-head, and whether a ball drops six inches to the left or the right of the foul pole, or whether Carlos Gomez guesses right on a reckless diving catch.

If you want to give the final word to Baseball Prospectus’s Postseason Odds calculator, they give the Sox a 73% chance and the Twins a 27% chance. I don’t know what numbers they are using so I will guess that it takes individual stats so far and plays a million virtual games, ignoring previous RISP hitting, which is not predictive. I’ve seen some pretty kooky numbers at this site though, with wild swings day to day, so I don’t take it very seriously, personally.But three to one odds. That’s pretty harsh.

I’m sick of nay-sayers like the above. If Span, Buscher, Punto and Casilla can keep up their flirtations with .300, they are all dangerous members of a fast lineup. Kubel, Young and Cuddyer haven’t lived up to their potential consistently, but they’re all capable of going on tears and producing at start-level power and average. Mauer and Morneau are superstars. Only Gomez has consistently sucked offensively, and by pinch-hitting for him with Jason Pridie Gardenhire showed that he’s not going to let Gomez drag them down anymore. This team may not dominate for the whole year but when they play well they can score runs from top to bottom.

as for pitching it’s a rare team that is solid one through five in the rotation. They no longer have the two superstars that can lead you through the playoffs — in mid-2006 I knew a Yankee fan was terrified of facing the Twins with Santana and Liriano in a short series — but Liriano, Baker, and Slowey all played like stars at times and have been solid the rest of the time.

Relief pitching has obviously been their downfall lately but Nathan blowing three games is not going to happen very often, so they should at the very least get better by a little. It’s sad to think of how good they could have been with Neshek around. But while they’re a concern, improving on an ERA of 8 in September is certainly doable.

Chicago has a feast or famine offense, and their pitchers are all capable of great inconsistency as well. If the Twins were tied with Chicago instead of 1 1/2 back, the White Sox would be sweating and the Twins would be confident, and you’d like our chances just fine. Well in a few days time, that could be the case, right? So it’s a little early to throw in the towel. They just need to get their confidence back, and a home series against KC could be just what the doctor ordered.