FanPost

Schedule Analysis--One Month Left

With only one month left in the season, and since all three teams vying for the two final playoff spots have the same number of games left (25), I thought it’d be a good idea to update my schedule analysis from earlier in the season.  Currently, the Twins and White Sox are tied at 77-60 and the Red Sox have a 3 game lead on both teams in the Wild Card Race with an 8-57 record.

 

Like the last time, I broke teams up into three groups using some combination of run differential and actual record and I’ll be the first to admit it wasn’t scientific so much as by gut.  The groups are the playoff contenders (a much smaller group this time, as there are only five teams still in the hunt), the average teams (teams that aren’t awful, but aren’t making the playoffs) and the bad teams (the Royals, Orioles and all non Anaheim based AL West teams).  The groups are as follows:

 

Playoff teams:  Tampa Bay, Boston, Chicago, Minnesota, Anaheim

Average teams:  New York, Toronto, Cleveland, Detroit

Bad Teams: Baltimore, Kansas City, Texas, Oakland, Seattle

 

 

Twins Road

Twins Home

Chicago Road

Chicago Home

Boston Road

Boston Home

 

3 TOR

3 BAL

3 CLE

4 TB

3 DET

6 KC

3 CHI

2 CLE

4 NYY

3 KC

3 MN

3 LAA

4 TOR

3 DET

3 CLE

3 TEX

3 TB

3 TOR

 

2 BAL

3 TB

4 TOR

4 CLE

3 NYY

Total Games

13

12

12

13

9

16

Playoff Teams

4

3

3

3

3

3

Average Teams

6

3

6

10

3

11

Bad Teams

3

6

3

0

3

2

 

 

So which team’s schedule sets them up the best to make the playoffs?  The Red Sox, followed by the Twins and then White Sox.  Boston has 16 games left at home, mostly against average teams and they are tied with the White Sox for fewest games against playoff teams.  They also have that three game cushion, which means that Boston really has no excuse to miss the playoffs, whether or not Josh Beckett throws another pitch this year.

 

The Twins schedule isn’t quite as comfortable as the Red Sox’, but it’s still better than the White Sox’.  While they have one more road game (and one more road game against a playoff team), they get to play half of their home games against Kansas City (a bad team) while the White Sox don’t get to play any, instead getting 10 of their games in the cell against Toronto, Detroit and Cleveland.  And the White Sox also have to travel to Minnesota for a three game series.

 

So while it looks like the Wild Card is coming out of the AL East, the schedule is working in the Twins favor when it comes to the AL Central.  It’s not so favorable that the division crown is a lock, but it is nice enough that there’s no doubt that White Sox would love to switch schedules with the Twins.

 

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