A Cy Young Award vote for Cliff Lee
by thebaseballexpert
on Sep 2, 2008 8:10 PM EDT
Check this out:
It's really going to be a no-brainer, right? Halladay is having his usual great season, but Lee clearly has the best numbers. Dice-K has a great record, but doesn't pitch enough innings. 74-38 career record for Lee -- what other pitcher out there has a record and winning percentage that good?
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Really impressive for a guy
Who’s fastball tops out at 91-92mph.
Gardenhire's major league career: Banjo hitting, futility infielder who couldn't lick it.
Rick Anderson's major league career: Strikethrower who never made it happen with his sub 90's fastball.
Really gives a new definition to living vicariously through other people, don't it?
by caseintheface on Sep 2, 2008 10:11 PM EDT 0 recs
How can one article mention wins and losses so many times?
My brain hurts! But yeah, Cliff Lee definitely deserves the nod.
by PhoenixV on Sep 2, 2008 10:57 PM EDT 0 recs
Yeah, Lee Takes it
He has simply been the best in The AL this year…..I mean its not Like Cleveland scores him a ton of runs either…..And he is Still the first in the Majors to 20 Wins….
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 3, 2008 12:34 AM EDT 0 recs
In fact
Cliff Lee is 7th in the AL in terms of run support among pitchers with at least 140 IP.
by PhoenixV on
Sep 3, 2008 10:10 AM EDT
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Lee probably wins
But Frankie Rodriquez is going to get plenty of consideration. He’ll set the saves record, probably with ease, and no one with that many saves has ever been ignored in the Cy race. Thigpen. Gagne. Hoffman. Smoltz. Check out their vote finishes for their record seasons.
by Johnny Safron on Sep 3, 2008 12:43 AM EDT 0 recs
No on K-Rod for CY or MVP
Who’s pitched better, K-Rod or Joe Nathan?
Rodriguez…2.43 ERA 59.1 IP 43 H 30 BB 68 SO 3.30 FIP 1.23 WHIP .282 BABIP 3.84 WPA
Nathan……..1.11 ERA 57.0 IP 38 H 13 BB 62 SO 2.62 FIP 0.89 WHIP .256 BABIP 3.49 WPA
Again, the biggest difference is that K-Rod is 54/59 and Nathan is 36/41 in save opportunities. What’s amazing is that the Angels have already given K-Rod 59 save opportunities.
Looking at the above stats, if you gave me a choice to come in to start the 9th inning in Game 7 of the World Series with a one run lead, I’d take Nathan.
by Adam Peterson on
Sep 3, 2008 2:23 PM EDT
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It's not what you daydream about
It’s what is reality. With that save total, he will get consideration. Note that I am not advocating him for Cy, I’m saying he will get votes. And so will Mussina. “The Baseball Expert” needs to become a little more expert.
by Johnny Safron on
Sep 3, 2008 10:22 PM EDT
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"The Baseball Expert"?
?
I suspect K-Rod will get votes. I’m addressing whether he should be getting votes for Cy Young. Considering that Nathan’s numbers indicate that he has pitched better this year, I say K-Rod may not deserve the votes he’s going to get.
by Adam Peterson on
Sep 4, 2008 8:29 AM EDT
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He's got my vote
I mean, if I had a vote. He’s the first clear choice since Johan.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Sep 3, 2008 1:04 PM EDT 0 recs
Halladay and Lee are closer than you think...
I’d still vote Lee, but not quite a slam dunk, IMO
Lee: 2.32 ERA 194.1 IP 177 H 27 BB 149 SO 2.56 FIP 1.05 WHIP .298 BABIP 6.12 WPA
Halladay: 2.69 ERA 211.0 IP 186 H 34 BB 178 SO 3.11 FIP 1.04 WHIP .288 BABIP 4.38 WPA
Lee has the better ERA, WPA, Halladay has more SO and about gets about one more out per start than Lee. The biggest difference is W-L 20-2 for Lee, 17-9 for Halladay. That’s all about run support…
by Adam Peterson on
Sep 3, 2008 2:13 PM EDT
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That’s all about run support…
Well, not quite. I agree with the general point that wins and losses are not a good measure because pitchers can’t often control whether or not they get the W. But when two pitchers from comparable offensive clubs have a difference in FIP of more than a half point, it makes sense that their won-lost records would differ accordingly.
Over the course of a year, a half a run of FIP is about a run every other game. Over 28 starts, that could very well result in 7 more losses. It’s not determinate, but it’s well within a predictable range, especially on an offensively challenged team.
That said, they do pitch for significantly different offensive clubs. The Indians have scored 669 runs so far this year. The Jays have scored 603. So Halliday’s margin for error has been that much more acute. That might mitigate half the losses. Turn three of those losses into wins, and we’re talking about 20-4 versus 20-2. If Halliday’s K advantage cancels out Lee’s ERA advantage, it is a lot closer than the voters will make it out.
But I still think Lee’s had the better year based on FIP.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on
Sep 3, 2008 3:31 PM EDT
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Agree that Lee has had the better year
And I’d vote him #1 and Halladay #2 for the Cy Young. I was a bit surprised at how close Lee and Halladay were in many of the numbers. The half point difference in FIP is pretty big though.
by Adam Peterson on
Sep 5, 2008 9:16 AM EDT
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That’s all about run support
Lee pitches in a hitters’ park. Halliday pitches in a pitchers’ park. It must be partially about that. And a couple dozen other things.
And talking about run support would require figuring out each man’s run support. And not the run support baseball-reference.com and everyone else uses.
by Johnny Safron on Sep 3, 2008 11:40 PM EDT 0 recs
Hitter's versus Pitcher's Park
According to ESPN’s Park Factors, 1.0 being average for all factors:
Cleveland: 0.952 runs (20th in MLB) 0.715 HR (30th in MLB)
Toronto: 0.968 runs (19th in MLB) 0.899 HR (21st in MLB)
Neither park is particularly hitter-friendly, but Progressive Field appears to be more pitcher-friendly, especially for HR, than Rogers Centre.
by Adam Peterson on
Sep 4, 2008 8:34 AM EDT
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Check out bb-ref.com for hitters / pitchers parks
by Johnny Safron on
Sep 4, 2008 8:25 PM EDT
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Those are three year factors
Showing Hitter/Pitcher factors of 100/99 for Rogers Centre and 103/102 for Progressive Field. Small difference, but neither field can really be called “hitter” or “pitcher” parks.
by Adam Peterson on
Sep 5, 2008 9:14 AM EDT
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No, it's a single-season factor
Look again. Look more closely.
by Johnny Safron on
Sep 5, 2008 11:24 PM EDT
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I cited the multi year factors
from going to each Park’s page.
Going to the Team’s page gives Progressive 106/105 and Rogers 98/98 for just 2008.
Hmmm…why are the ESPN and bb-ref park factors so different?
by Adam Peterson on
Sep 6, 2008 8:50 AM EDT
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Obviously, they calculate them differently
Never knew ESPN did this. I’ve always used BB-R, but once again it brings up the problem with relying on any particular set of calculations. It usually matters how these calculations are, well, calculated; and in general, well, they’re general.
ERA is a generalization, for example, just as park factor has to be. Take Pat Neshek, in regard to ERA. Neshek had nearly a 5 ERA this year. Of course, two really bad outings resulted in that. It’s why I like game logs – work though they are.
All I wanted to do was introduce another valid factor into this discussion. I’m really not interested in figuring out how each of these groups determines park factor. I’ve always used BB-R, admittedly blindly and without any thought as to whether this is solid stuff, but primarily because it’s the one place where I knew this info was available. I know BB-R uses a formula created in Total Baseball. Not sure how ESPN does it. I do know it’s not something I’m curious enough about to research. I’m just going to rely on BB-R because it has no relationship with Joe Morgan.
by Johnny Safron on
Sep 6, 2008 11:37 AM EDT
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if K-Rod Beats out Lee for Cy Young i will Riot
I’m Not a Tribe Fan, but My God this Kid is the Cinderella Story this year, How he pitched Terribly and was Demoted to the Minors Last year, this year, the Kid was Battling for the 5th Starting Job in Cleveland and now Look at what he is doing. If K-Rod Beats him Out because Woop-Dee-Do He Has the most Saves in a single season. Its a Damn Shame
by Tony_O on Sep 3, 2008 11:58 PM EDT 0 recs
LOL
Has a Twins closer ever blown three saves on one road trip? I doubt RD ever did it. Reardon had a couple of rough patches a year. But we’re just spoined by the infrequency of blown saves around here.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on
Sep 4, 2008 9:38 AM EDT
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Perception is everything
Reputations aside, RD’s save percentage as a Twin: 843
Reardon’s: .838
by Johnny Safron on Sep 4, 2008 8:53 PM EDT 0 recs
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