To-do-list for 2009 offseason
Hey guys, great to be back here after a long baseball season at AAA. CMath, Roger, Jesse, and many others; will be good to read your insight again more often. Always appreciate all your work. Anyway, I just wanted to look to 2009 for a minute (not giving up on this season yet, just always fun to look). Personally, I would look at a few things:
1) Trade Delmon Young in a package for Adrian Beltre. Now this isn't a move I'd "love" to make, but I do think it's not such a bad idea considering the rumblings of the Twins' unhappiness with Young as well as their love for players like Beltre, not to mention the fact that our OF is going to be quite crowded next season. I would offer something like this:
Beltre plus a MI prospect for Young plus Guerrier. Our bullpen is going to be decent next year; bear with me.
Beltre does make a hefty $12 Million next year, but he's a RH power bat, he brings a great glove, and he'd be in a contract push. And we all saw what happened last time that was the case for him. Plus, he bides the Twins time for one of Valencia/Hughes to step up this year at 3b as a longterm option. And lastly, he is likely to be a Type A FA after 2009, so the Twins would reap 2 top 40 picks simply by letting him sign elsewhere. Makes; all the sense in the world to me, as much as I hate to give up on a 22-year old with great talent in Young. And we do have more stellar OF's on the way in the next few years in Hicks/Revere/Morales, plus a stable of young guys with high ceilings in the majors currently.
2) Sign Mark Ellis. He's had a really unlucky year but he could capably solve our other INF problem and I expect a bounceback year from him in 2009; most stats would indicate that. He's a Type B FA, which works, and Dennys Reyes should be a Type B as well that we could easily let walk, negating that anyway. Plus, Ellis is from the area, and also shouldn't cost much, nor a longterm committment. I was thinking something in the range of $6 Million per year over 2-3 years. I think that would get it done. That drastically improves the INF offense and also makes our overall defense simply nasty. You'd have the following:
C-Mauer-best in the league
1b-Morneau-top 4 in the league, at worst
2b-Ellis-top 2 in the league
SS-Casilla-top 3 in the league
3b-Beltre-top 3 in the league
RF-Cuddyer (our one bad spot)
CF-Gomez-best in the league
LF-Span-best in the league (should be at least, in LF)
That's ridiculous.
3) Sign longterm contract extensions for Joe Mauer, Francisco Liriano, and Scott Baker. They are the rest of the core of this franchise, and it's a good time to do it in each of their cases.
Mauer's current contract is up after 2010. He's the heart of this team and it's MVP in my opinion. Following the model of Morneau and Cuddyer, give him a bonus this season, and then give him an annual salary in line with Morneau's longterm contract, at around $14 million per year. I bet he'd go for that.
Liriano, if he has the year I expect in 2009, is going to see his arbitration figure go through the roof. Let's beat him to the punch in offering him some security this year. Give him an early bonus and get a 5 year deal done at a relatively bargain rate, taking out a year of FA if possible.
Baker; ditto from Liriano. The guy seems to be a horse and doesn't really have an injury history, but really provides a Radke-like presence on the team as a stabilizer. Let's get it done.
I think these need to be priorities on this team this offseason and I think we can get all 3 done. If we do, I will be quite happy, and quite happy with the direction of this team. In my next post, tacking on to this, I'll look at salary going into 2009 and 2010. I think you'll like what you see, or at least I hope you do. Did I mention it's great to be back on here? Go Twins!
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Not so sure...
…about one or two. I’m not sure they want trade Young, and I wouldn’t do it for Beltre. I’d rather have Kuzmanhoff (spelling) or Atkins. Also, I see a lot better free agents than Ellis.
by Twins Territory on Sep 20, 2008 3:41 PM EDT reply actions
Really
just Hudson. I’d love to see him at second and Casilla as short. What the Twins really need to do is figure out what position (SS, 3B or 2B) they are building within the organization. Then they need to figure out if they want Casilla at second or short and then sign one of the better free agents at the one other position.
by Twins Territory on Sep 20, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I've thought about this a lot....
1) According to a couple people I know around the front office the Twins ARE going to shop Delmon this offseason. He is very distant in the clubhouse. That’s actually the whole reason I suggest it. If it was up to me, I’m not entirely sure I’d give up on the 22-year old just yet.
2) Atkins definitely isn’t better than Beltre. Take him away from Coors and see what happens. And he’s going to cost a lot of money himself. Plus he’s not close to as good as Beltre defensively. Kouzmanoff is an option, but again, he’s not close to as good defensively as Beltre. Plus, even if we just have Beltre for 1 year, we’re more than likely going to get 2 1st rd picks after that one, big, contract year from him. That’s just fine by me.
3) I love Orlando Hudson, and want him too, but he’s going to be a Type A FA. Ellis is going to be a Type B. That’s a HUGE difference to me. No way do I give up a 1st rd pick to go get Hudson vs. Ellis. They’re not really that different of players, but Hudson will also cost more in terms of money and years as well. Just not worth it.
I'd
really surprised and disappointed if the Twins gave up Delmon Young already. Mainly because he is 22, and also because we gave up Garza to get him.
I’m really not sure what they should do with third. Something tells me that they’ll stand pat there and go with someone like Hughes or Buscher in the future. If they do go with them, I’d like to see them sign one of the better shortstops or second baseman. They do have some money to spend.
by Twins Territory on Sep 20, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, Ellis is a damn fine player...
As I said, he was incredibly unlucky this year, but that should even out. Given his home/away splits, he’s likely to hit close to a .800 OPS at the Dome, and again, he’s an EXCELLENT defensive 2b.
He is incredibly undervalued to me, which is the whole point of why he’s the best signing for the Twins.
Nice idea
I like the thought, but I don’t think we can afford it. $12m for Beltre, $6m for Ellis, and a bunch for Liriano/Baker/Mauer. Seems expensive. I think we need to pick one position to upgrade this offseason, and aim high, and biuld the rest from within.
For instance, go for Beltre. Offer Young/Guerrier/Kubel for Beltre, a prospect (hopefully good), and $$. Then, we let Harris, Tolbert, and Hughes try out for the MI spot that Casilla doesn’t get. While certainly not a star studded lineup, we would have:
Span
Casilla
Mauer
Morneau
Beltre
Cuddyer
Tolbert/Hughes/Harris
DH (Buscher/Hughes/Ruiz)
Gomez
That is a very decent lineup, and very decent in the field. It isn’t the lineup that you suggested, but its cheaper.
The money works...
look to my next post. It works. Plus, as long as we’re treating Beltre as a 1-year player (which I think is prudent, given his likely Type A status and age), it’s really only a big money commitment for 1 year.
After that, we REALLY have a lot of money to spend, and everyone locked up, with a new stadium with tons of extra revenue to spend.

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