2009 & 2010 Team Salary; A look ahead
by DJSkillz on Sep 20, 2008 2:40 AM EDT
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PrintOK, so tacking onto my last diary, I thought I'd take a look at our salaries going forward the next 2 years. Not sure if it's been covered or not, so I hope I'm not duplicating efforts. Implicit in this projection are my ideas in the previous diary, Mark Ellis, Adrian Beltre, and necessary extensions for the team. I see payroll going up a lot next year if need be. Our payroll was roughly $72 Million in 2006, and is only $57 Million this year. And new stadium revenues will begin to kick in in 2009 from season tickets, etc. I see our 2009 payroll (if need be) being at LEAST $80 Million, and jumping all the way up to (again, if need be) closer to $100 Million in 2010. But judging by this, even with VERY conservative estimates, a couple of signings/expensive trades, and even a couple of "early" extensions to insure we keep the core of the team together, we're in great shape the next 2 years if those numbers are right. We'll see. Anyway, have at it. This is meant to be a general help to us looking forward, and you all know I love doing this; just about my favorite part of baseball.
2009:
Lineup:
C: Mauer; $13.5 Million (extension bonus/salary)
1b: Morneau; $10.6 Million
2b: Ellis; $6 Million (FA contract estimate; 2-3 year deal)
SS: Casilla; $450K
3b: Beltre; $12 Million (Young traded)
RF: Cuddyer; $6.75 Million
CF: Gomez; $450K
LF: Span; $450K
DH: Kubel; $4 Million (arbitration/extension estimate)
Bench:
Redmond: $1 Million
Pridie: $400K
Tolbert: $400K
Harris: $450K
Ruiz: $400K
(Sunk cost; Lamb: $3 Million)
TOTAL OFFENSE: $59.85 Million
Rotation:
Liriano; $2Million (extension bonus/salary)
Baker: $2 Million (extension bonus/salary)
Slowey: $450K
Blackburn: $400K
Humber: $400K (Swarzak in the wings as insurance also)
Bullpen:
Nathan: $11.25 Million
Neshek: $450K
Boof: $450K
Perkins: $450K
Crain: $1.7 Million
Mijares: $400K
Breslow: $400K (Guerrier traded)
TOTAL STAFF: $20.35 Million
TOTAL TEAM SALARY: $80.20 Million
2010:
C: Mauer; $14 Million (extension salary)
1b: Morneau; $14 Million
2b: Ellis; $6 Million (FA contract estimate; 2-3 year deal)
SS: Casilla; $1 Million (extension estimate)
3b: Valencia/Hughes; $400K
RF: Cuddyer; $8.5 Million
CF: Gomez; $1 Million (extension estimate)
LF: Span; $450K
DH: Kubel; $7 Million (arbitration/extension estimate)
Bench:
Morales: $400K
Pridie: $450K
Tolbert: $450K
Harris: $450K
Ruiz: $450K
TOTAL OFFENSE: $54.55 Million
Rotation:
Liriano; $4Million (extension bonus/salary)
Baker: $4 Million (extension bonus/salary)
Slowey: $450K
Humber/Swarzak/Blackburn/Manship: $450K
Humber/Swarzak/Blackburn/Manship: $450K
Bullpen:
Nathan: $11.25 Million
Neshek: $1 Million (arbitration/extension estimate)
Boof: $1 Million (arbitration/extension estimate)
Perkins: $450K
Humber/Swarzak/Blackburn/Manship: $450K
Mijares: $450K
Slama: $400K (Crain traded or otherwise gone)
TOTAL STAFF: $24.35 Million
TOTAL TEAM SALARY: $78.9 Million
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Well, dammit....
I saw Jesse beat me to this. Nice work as always, man.
Young for Beltre
Make it so! I know it would take at least one prospect to make it work, but I’ve seen enough to know I’d much rather have Cuddyer.
And I like the Ellis idea, with Casilla moving over to ahort. Ellis is a great defender and an underrated hitter.
I love the idea of this line-up:
Span
Casilla
Mauer
Morneau
Beltre
Cuddyer
Kubel
Ellis
Gomez
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
if we have this lineup
Then I think Gomez should be in AAA. We lose out in the outfield, but I’d rather not waste his last cheap year while he still sucks at the plate. Put Span in CF, and either Pridie in LF, or Kubel in LF and Ruiz at DH.
Pridie would be a slight upgrade offensively, and a downgrade defensively. It would be well worth it, to get a year of improved play from Gomez later.
Before, I would have agreed with you re: Gomez...
but at this point, I think the last thing Gomez needs is a year in AAA. We’ve seen dramatic improvements with him just in the last month even. I think what he needs most at this point is another 500-600 ab’s at the major league level to continue to improve.
Hopefully we’ll see a leap from him much like the Mets saw from Jose Reyes at a similar age. The 2 are really quite similar to me.
Leap
I don’t know where he stands developmentally, because I have zero experience scouting. But, if he is likely to improve at AAA, then he should start there. This is even if he would improve more at the major league level.
The reason he is a valuable player is NOT his potential, and definitely not his current level of play (even the last month). He is not any better than league average right, blending offense and defense. He is valuable, because he has the potential to be good while he is still very very cheap. Playing him at the major league level, while he is still a replacement level player, defeats the value of having a strong farm system.
In mind, a players value is entirely dependent on their service time.
A serf is worth the difference between their salary ($400k) and the cost of a similar player on the open market. Thus, a replacement level serf (Gomez), is exactly that. Any AAA outfielder could replace him, so he is a dime a dozen.
An arbitration eligible player is worth the difference between their arbitration salary and free agent salary, plus the reduced risk from a one year contract. This is much less than serf value, but still significant. If Gomez reaches arbitration just as he begins to “realize his potential”, much of his value will be lost, but we will still get a couple million bucks worth of discount.
A free agent eligible player is worth the draft compensation they would return if they left on the open market, plus any “hometown discount” they would take to stay. If Gomez reaches this status before he demonstrates himself to be Type A, then we will have wasted Santana completely. That isn’t my complaint, my complaint is just that we wouldn’t be maximizing his value.
Basically, if he can improve in AAA, put him there. That way we gain the benefit of a strong farm system. A strong farm system isn’t worth anything, if players are promoted before they are ready. Gomez has now wasted 2 complete years, which is a tremendous cost to the Twins, though a tremendous benefit to him, financially.
Defense
I think people who say he should be in AAA next year underestimate the value of his defense. He’s the best center fielder in the game. AS for his offesnse, he’s better now thanhe was at the beginning of the year. While still raw, his offense is not that much of a liability relative to league average at his positon. And his defense more than makes up for it.
I wouldn’t worry too much about his contract. That’s a problem the Twins would like to have. If he keeps playing like he did this year, he’ll be affordable for years to come because the arbitration people don’t have any better way of evaluating his defense objectively than we do.
Of the four main outfielders, I would rather find a home for Young outside of Minnesota. He’s still a valuable commodity and he’s our fourth-best outfielder, all things considered.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Right...
I’m in agreement there.
And that’s my point; I think the best area for development for Gomez IS the major league level right now. He’s already seen major league pitching for a year and is beginning to adjust to it. I’d let that process continue, rather than retard it by having him go back to AAA. If Gomez can continue this, I’m really hoping for a Carl Crawford or Jose Reyes’ like leap in his age 23 season. Here are some numbers:
Player A) .281/.309/.362/.671 18 2b, 9 3b, 5 HR, 26 BB/102 K
Player B) .273/.300/.386/.686 24 2b, 17 3b, 7 HR, 27 BB/78 K
Player C) .256/.296/.354/.650 23 2b, 5 3b, 7 HR, 25 BB/136 K
A is Crawford, B is Reyes, and C is Gomez, all in their first full season (this year for Gomez), and all at the age of 22. Now here is what Crawford and Reyes did in their age 23 season:
Carl Crawford:
.296/.331/.450/.781 26 2b, 19 3b, 11 HR, 35 BB/81 K
Jose Reyes:
.300/.354/.487/.841 30 2b, 17 3b, 19 HR, 53 BB/81 K
Obviously K’s will be big for Gomez to cut down on, but hopefully he can do that. His September, thus far, has been EASILY his best month of the season. Hopefully that is a sign of things to come. If Gomez could have even close to a .781 OPS next season, with his defense, at the age of 23, I would be quite happy.
And, small sample size....
but so far in September his OPS is at .794.
My comment
While both of you commented on his good defense, and high hopes for growth, neither of you covered the topic of my post.
I’m arguing that his growth at AAA is MORE VALUABLE to the twins than his growth in the majors. Call him up when he’s ready.
Also, while he may be fantastic defensively, I’m not sure he’s enough better than Span/Pridie to make up for his offensive failings.
Lastly, citing two players who had better years at 23 than 22 is a great hope, but it is not a meaningful projection. I’ve watched all three players hit, and they look completely different at the plate. Hopefully Gomez figures it out, but it isn’t obvious to me that he will figure it out. Let him try at AAA.
It's not just using 2 random players though...
Those are the two most similar players, to me, of his skill set, especially Carl Crawford, offensively. I didn’t include anyone else in the sample because I can’t really think of another comparable to him with an age 22 first full season, etc.
I just really think it’s best for his development to be in the majors again at this point, and that’s what’s most important to me, yes, even more important than the cost to the Twins. It’s MOST important that he develops. It wouldn’t do any good for the Twins to save money on him, but retard his development IMO, and I think that’s what another season in AAA would do at this point, personally.
Gomez
I want to argue about his high strikeouts, low extra-base hits, and try to come up with promising 22 year olds who didn’t pan out, but that has nothing to do with my main argument.
I’m not arguing that he’ll develop faster at AAA than in the MLB (though he might). What I’m arguing is, that any step forward at AAA pays off for the twins. The only way it costs them is if he actually takes a step backwards. As long as he improves, his last year of MLB minimum will be better, his first year of arbitration will be better, etc. Thus, he will be a better player, relative to his pay. If he develops faster in the big leagues, that just means he is a better player when he leaves, not when he’s still here.
Thanks CMath...
I’ve put a lot of thought into this.
I like it too. And I’ve heard that we WILL shop Delmon this offseason. It makes a ton of sense for Seattle. Though I haven’t studied their system enough to know what we could get as a MI throw-in for down the road (maybe even replacing Ellis in a couple years). I’m sure Triunfel is off limits.
I love that lineup too. I might swap Cuddyer and Kubel,but that’s about it.
Great ideas
I like the Beltre and Ellis additions as well. I think Neshek/Perkins as an eighth inning right/left combo would be lights out.
Questions/comments:
Is Neshek a sure thing to be back for spring training? I’d hate to have to rely on him TOO much in the first part of the season as he gathers arm strength.
I don’t think Liriano will make it as a Super-2 arb. eligible this year. And, I’d delay signing him long-term for another year or so, until he can prove his arm will remain healthy.
Baker I’d sign to a 3- or 4-year deal, however. He’s not a sure Super-2 either (2 years, 128 days according to Cots). But 4 years, $15-18 Mil. wouldn’t be awful.
Count me in the camp of a healthy Cuddyer >> Delmon, at least for the next two years.
Oh, I know that...
on Liriano and Baker. But I want to be proactive.
I really think Liriano’s in for a Cy Young caliber year next year, and as such, his first year abritation value (after 2009) could be incredible. I want to beat him to that.
He and Baker are both under our control for at least 4 more years anyway, but I think we can save a lot of money, and possibly even a FA year or so, by being proactive and signing them now. That’s why I advocate those 2.
As to Neshek, yes, I wouldn’t count on him too much. But I do think that we can be okay for a month or 2 with a combination of Boof (offseason of adjusting to the bullpen), Perkins, and Crain (a year removed from surgery) even if Neshek does take a month or 2 to get going/healthy. Maybe not ideal, but better than signing a reliever to a multi-year deal that we don’t need.
I really hope
they move Boof. I’ve heard that teams like Texas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Kansas City are interested. If true, they need to move him.
by Twins Territory on Sep 20, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions
trades
Yeah, trade Boof. We don’t need to get much for him. Also trade Perkins, because I think he would actually get a decent return, and he is the worst at our position of strength (starters). In fact, maybe Young/Perkins is the group to ship out.
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