Twins Playoff Scenario, Updated

by Jesse on Sep 26, 2008 4:56 PM EDT in News Comment 7 comments

My oh my how fortunes have swung.

Clearly I'm optimistic, but I still thought that sweeping Chicago was a pipe dream. But now that's it's happened, and I can still scarcely believe it, and I still get excited every time I remember the last three days, the playoff scenario has shifted dramatically.

For the Twins to win the division outright:

Minnesota needs to pick up another game on Chicago to increase their division lead to 1.5 games by the end of play on Sunday. This would nullify the Chicago's postponed game with the Tigers, and jettison the Twins into October. So, if Chicago wins one of three against the Indians, Minnesota needs to take two from the Royals. You get the idea.

For the Sox to win the division outright:

Chicago would need to pick up two games on the Twins, making their lead 1.5 games. This means the Twins can do no better than one win against Kansas City, and the Sox can do no worse than a series in against Cleveland.

The Elimination Scenario:

Whether the standings at the end of play Sunday still read a one-half game lead by the Twins, or a one-half game lead by the Sox, that postponed game against Detroit comes into play. In this situation the Tigers will drop into Chi-Town. With a Minnesota lead on Sunday, the Sox would have to beat Detroit to force a one-game playoff against the Twins for the American League Central Division title If the Sox would manage to pick up a game on the Twins and finish in the lead, the Tigers still come to town, but Minnesota would need a White Sox loss to squeeze into that one-game playoff.

And the funny thing is, it's not nearly as complicated as I've managed to make it sound. Still, this weekend will be one to remember.

The final series of the regular season kicks off in a couple short hours. I'll see you here for the game!

0 recs | Comment 7 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Easiest way to think of it for me

The Twins Magic Number is 4. Any combination of Twins’ wins and White Sox losses that equals 4 will give the Twins the division.

The White Sox Magic Number is 5. Any combo of White Sox wins and Twins’ losses that equals 5 gives the White Sox the division.

If White Sox Wins + Twins losses is less than five, and Twins Wins + White Sox losses is than four, there’s a one game playoff

The Ragnarok

by TBird41 on Sep 26, 2008 5:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

To make it more complicated

I believe there are 16 possible outcomes this weekend; different combinations if you will—mathematically speaking. 7 of those 16 combinations result in Chicago having to play the extra game against Detroit. 6 of those 16 combinations result in the Twins winning the division without the Sox and Tigers making up the game. 3 of those combinations result in the Sox winning the division without having to play Detroit.

If you assume neither Minnesota nor Chicago will be swept (a fair leap of faith since they are both playing lesser opponents), then that leaves 9 possible outcomes, 5 of which would result in the Sox and Tigers playing their makeup game, and 3 where the Twins would win the division without the makeup game, and 1 where the White Sox would win the division without the makeup game. I would call these the LIKELY outcomes.

In summary:

Of possible outcomes: ~44% say the Tigers and White Sox play on Monday
~38% say the Twins win the division without the makeup
~19% say the Sox win the division without the makeup

Of LIKELY outcomes: ~56% say the Tigers and White Sox play on Monday
~33% say the Twins win the division without the makeup
~11% say the White Sox win the division without the makeup

In conclusion, I would say it is slightly better than 50/50 that the Tigers and White Sox have to play one more game.

MORE FUN WITH NUMBERS: In either case (possible or likely outcomes) it is about 60% chance that if the Tigers and White Sox play again, the White Sox will need to win the game to force a playoff with the Twins.

by rencito on Sep 26, 2008 5:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

HA! Awesome.

Great breakdown, I love it. Thanks.

by Jesse on Sep 26, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perkins vs. Meche

On paper, this looks like a disaster. It’s been runnin’ down Perk’s leg for a long time, and he has look so scared that “bonafide AAA player” seems to be tattooed on his butt.

Yet the way this season is going, maybe he actually shuts everyone down.

by Johnny Safron on Sep 26, 2008 10:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My Thoughts

Lets win today and hope the Indians can knock off the Sox again. That’s assure us of nothing less than a tie, and if we could just win Sunday we could clinch. We NEED to win the final two here against the Royals. If we can do that at least we’ll have a good chance to take it.

by Twins Territory on Sep 27, 2008 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's how I feel...

To me, it’s simple.

Take the next 2 games and we’re in.

I just don’t see any way that the Sox win all 3 of their final games, not to mention AND THEN a 1-game playoff game with us.

Take these 2 and get this thing over with, guys!

by DJSkillz on Sep 27, 2008 3:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I think there is a good chance they could lose one more against the Indians. I really hope Lee starts Sunday. What might hurt them is that they have decided to go with Vazquez and Burhle on three-days rest.

by Twins Territory on Sep 27, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs