AL Central Championship On the Line

by Jesse on Sep 30, 2008 9:05 AM EDT in Series Previews

"Maybe this is justice, who knows," he said. "Maybe this is the way it's supposed to be. The two best teams in the division all year have to play one game to see who goes [to the postseason]."
--Tigers manager Jim Leyland

This is it. This is for October. One final contest with the world of baseball watching to see who comes out the victor. Oh, and if you were asking yourself: "Why are the Twins in Chicago for this game instead of the other way around?", you're not the only one. The Twins are in Chicago because of a coin flip. Apparently head-to-head results matter nothing--huzzah.

Now...are you ready?

Chicago White Sox (88-74)
Home: 53-28 / VS Twins: 8-10 / VS Twins @ Home: 7-2
CWS @ Home: .273/.347/.483 / 754 IP, 7.58 K/9, 1.24 WHIP, 83 HR
CWS vs MIN: .289/.341/.486 / 155.2 IP, 6.65 K/9, 1.48 WHIP, 15 HR
CWS vs RHP: .268/.333/.444

Minnesota Twins (88-74)
Away: 35-46 / VS Sox: 10-8 / VS Sox away: 2-7
MIN Away: .270/.335/.391 / 707 IP, 6.03 K/9, 1.50 WHIP, 100 HR
MIN vs CWS: .283/.341/.440 / 156 IP, 6.00 K/0, 1.47 WHIP, 30 HR
MIN vs LHP: .277/.334/.401

Starting Pitchers

John Danks: Danks started four games against the Twins this season, three of those occasions were in Chicago. Only one of those contests in Chicago saw him pitch effectively, when he threw five innings of six-hit, two-run ball back on May 8th. Some of the Sox advantage for playing at home disappears by starting Danks, although on the whole the 23-year old southpaw did have a fine year.

Strengths: Good fastball with movement, strikeout threat, keeps the ball in the park
Weaknesses: Familiar to opponent, experience, can get away from his breaking ball
Red Alert: Justin Morneau (1.675 OPS, 16 AB), Joe Mauer (1.381, 12), Michael Cuddyer (1.393, 12), Brendan Harris (1.315, 10), Jason Kubel (1.500, 7)

Nick Blackburn: Sandwiched between three ultimately effective September starts were two pretty bad ones, and they've thrown off his numbers for the month. It's been awhile since we've seen him at his best. This year he sqaured off against the Sox five times, plenty by any measure. Two met requirements for a Quality Start, but only once did he allow more than three earned runs; on June 6th he allowed seven runs on eight hits through four innings. Tonight will be his fourth start of the season in Chicago, so at the very least he's not walking into this situation blind.

Strengths: Control, good breaking ball, keeps the ball in the park
Weaknesses: Familiar to opponent, experience, recent track record
Red Alert: Jim Thome (.929 OPS, 12 AB), A.J. Pierzynski (1.145, 10), Joe Crede (1.200, 10), Nick Swisher (.944, 9), Carlos Quentin (1.067, 9), Juan Uribe (1.000, 9)

Positions: Side-By-Side

White Sox	Position	Twins	Comments
	C	X	Joe Mauer is about to win his second batting title in two years. Sorry, A.J., but you can't hold a candle, in any aspect of the game. Except probably trash talking.
	1B	X	Paul Konerko is good, but not as good as Justin Morneau. For years I was envious of a big, powerful first baseman. Not anymore.
X	2B		This is a close one, because both Alexei Ramirez and Alexi Casilla have edges in different categories. Ultimately Ramirez won due to his power and better ratings for range in the field, but in the long run I can see Casilla evening the score with high yearly OBP.
	3B	X	If we were looking at Joe Crede instead of a bloated Juan Uribe, this wouldn't even be a conversation. But whether you're looking at Brian Buscher or Brendan Harris, I'd happily take either of them over the all-or-nothing Uribe.
X	SS	X	This is a split to me. Because while Nick Punto is maddening in so many frustrating ways, he's not only having a better year at the plate for a shortstop than Orlando Cabrera, but if you pro-rate for innings at the position Cabrera isn't making that many more plays outside of his zone. Also, Cabrera's been a real dick lately. In the end this isn't a Twins advantage because Punto still doesn't have Cabrera's range.
X	LF		This is Nick Swisher over Delmon Young and Jason Kubel combined. In spite of a pitiful batting average, Swisher can still reach base and hit the hell out of the ball. If Carlos Quentin were available, this would be an across-the-board victory for Chicago, instead of a categorical victory.
X	CF		I know Ken Griffey Jr. is having a down year, perhaps because he's getting up there, but in spite of his diminishing range in the field he's still a better and more reliable player than Carlos Gomez. Gomez could neutralize this disadvatage by taking a couple of hits away from the Sox in the gap or at the wall, but that's not something you can rely on.
X	RF	X	This isn't as big of a blow-out as I thought it'd be; I was thinking there'd be no conversation here. But Denard Span's OBP is 43 points higher than Jermaine Dye's, and he's markedly out-performing him in the field. Dye's experience and power forced an ultimate tie to stave off what could have been an upset.
X	DH		Jason Kubel has had an excellent season, but he's still no match for the savvy and powerful Jim Thome. Not yet, anyway.
	Bench	X	The Twins have a reliable backup catcher who can hit, and Michael Cuddyer, and defensive versatility. The Sox have no Joe Crede or Carlos Quentin which has depleted their depth, and Dewayne Wise as the only option with good offensive numbers this year.
X	Bullpen		In spite of a pen that's let them down recently, and game-saving performances from Jose Mijares or Craig Breslow, the White Sox are still edging the Twins here. Bobby Jenks, Matt Thornton and Octavio Dotel make for a formidible threesome, and Joe Nathan is the only Twin I'd rank above any of them. Sadly, this is not a comparison of closers.

One way or the other, tonight should hold in store one helluva game. For the 19th time this season...Sox VS Twins.

One last thing, for a slightly more...enthused...reaction to last night, and expectations for today, don't forget to check out South Side Sox. SSS is the best Sox site on the net, and it's got a rabid fan base. Check it out.

0 recs | Comment 44 comments

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Word on the street is...

White Sox’s assistant general manager Rick Hahn, took the advice of his son Jake and called heads.

So if we lose, we can blame it on a six year old kid.

by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 10:19 AM EDT 0 recs

Stupid six-year olds, ruining everything.

by Jesse on Sep 30, 2008 10:24 AM EDT up 0 recs

This hurts

I’m going to go with a Chicago win. 6-1.

by neide on Sep 30, 2008 10:25 AM EDT 0 recs

Shouldn't you be focusing your negativity on your own site?

You’re just trying to upset me. Stop that.

by Jesse on Sep 30, 2008 10:31 AM EDT up 0 recs

Hey

it works.

by neide on Sep 30, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'll be there

Can’t stress enough that Blackburn getting the start over Liriano is a deep concern.

Who’s going to DH tonight, Kubel or Cuddy?

by TMW on Sep 30, 2008 10:30 AM EDT 0 recs

Vs LHP:

Kubel: .232/.330/.374, 3 HR, 15 BB, 22 K, 115 PA
Cuddyer: .246/.372/.308, 12 BB, 14 K, 78 PA

I’m going with Kubel. Gardy keeps throwing him out there, and as painful as it is to watch him versus a LHP, there isn’t really any other way to shuffle that position. Kubel might be the best shot.

by Jesse on Sep 30, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up 0 recs

DH

Kubel is the smart play. Cuddyer is still slow on the base paths and can PH later for him if needed.

by WITwinsfan on Sep 30, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

You going to the game?

I’m looking for some ticket(s) right now. Rain delay screwed me over. Where are you sitting?

by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 12:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Upper deck Infield - First base side

My favorite section of the park for the money. Reasonably priced, no one constantly walks in front of you, and the sightlines are still good.

I’m going with a bunch of Twins fans I’ve never met. I hope they behave themselves, but emotions are going to run high. If the Twins win I’ll probably walk into work tomorrow looking like Edward Norton in Fight Club. If the Sox win, I’ve got a 45 minute L ride home soaked in Miller Lite and sadness.

by TMW on Sep 30, 2008 5:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Good luck dude.

I wish you well.

And I’m incredibly jealous that I won’t be there!

by Jesse on Sep 30, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

good luck

by caluofmn on Sep 30, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

Three huge factors as I see it

1) Blackburn: Are you throwing a playoff game, or batting practice? If you are throwing BP, then the game could easily be over by the third. Mr. Blackburn, I humbly request that you throw a playoff game, not BP.

2) Dizzzanks: Can the twins continue to hit this duder? If so, it could stay very close for a long while.

3) J.Mo: As he goes…this game will probably go…hate to say it, but if he doesnt hit…i dont like the chances. As Nate and I were discussing at the Sunday game against the royals, J.Mo has looked less like J.Mo, and more like J.Lo with his ass wiggling due to bad swings. We may have figured out J.Mo’s problem though…coincidence that his offense has scuffed at approximately the same time that Hockey Exhibition games began? This guy says nay. J.Mo is staiying up late watching Willie and Roberto out in Vancouver. Justin…Willie, ’Berto, and the Sedins want you to play baseball and win tonight…do it for the Canucks Justin…do it for them!

by mbennett on Sep 30, 2008 10:52 AM EDT 0 recs

I'm going to make a prediction

7-5 Twins. 9 innings. A home run by one of the rabbits and a clutch RBI hit by Justin Morneau in the 7th inning. Blackburn gives up 4 runs in 6 innings pitched, someone gives up 2 more in the 7th. Mijares and Nathan combine for a scoreless final 6 outs.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Sep 30, 2008 12:18 PM EDT 0 recs

3000 comment here

Hamilton has won the RBI lead but if Morneau can get one more RBI tonight, will they be tied or will it not be counted because this is a “playoff” game? I think it should count into the season stats. Go get that RBI Justin…its calling!

by 33MorneauMVP on Sep 30, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

regular season

All stats from today’s game count towards regular season stats, so Morneau can still catch/pass Hamilton.

by Hoya on Sep 30, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well, it all came down to who got home field

Twins were dominant at home, but they aren’t playing at home now, so they will lose. Quite simple really.

by RogersPark Kris on Sep 30, 2008 1:43 PM EDT 0 recs

So it's an absolute, is it?

What happens if they win?

by Jesse on Sep 30, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

Believe it or not,

I’m not a White Sox fanboi, I’m a Cub’s fanboi :) Bottom line, both teams had an identical home and road record. Both teams are much better at home than on the road. To answer you question, I don’t have to worry about that scenario since it won’t happen.

by RogersPark Kris on Sep 30, 2008 3:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

What's it like viewing the world in black and white?

I definitely hope you’re wrong, but feel free to stop back and gloat if you’re right. And then I’m putting you in charge of my stock portfolio as well as who I bet on for Monday Night Football.

by Jesse on Sep 30, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not going to gloat

But as your financial advisor, I wouldn’t touch any stocks till next year at the earliest.

Monday Night? Go with New Orleans ! Oh wait, they play the Vikings…yeah, you probably wouldn’t listen to me there…

by RogersPark Kris on Sep 30, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

RPK...

you could make the argument that it’s one of the best times to pick up some stock. If the reason you wouldn’t touch any stocks until next year is because the market will be humming, then wouldn’t getting in now when the price is low be a good idea for the next few months?

Also, go Twins.

President of the Al Newman Fan Club

by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

if you're willing to sit on your stocks

sure, now is a great time.

by RogersPark Kris on Sep 30, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

that's what most people do

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Sep 30, 2008 6:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

Prediction

I realize I have a reputation as a contrarian to consider here, so here goes:

Twins win in a laugher, 8-3.

Twins go up by 5 after three innings. Blackburn pitches decently, but the win drives interest in him for RoY to the point he finishes second behind Evan Longoria but ahead of Ian Kennedy and Alexei Ramirez. Morneau takes the RBI lead, but narrowly misses winning the MVP. Mauer wins the batting title.

Why? What really do the Twins have to lose here? Nobody expected them to even get to this game — not at the start of the season, and really not even before the White Sox sweep last week. The White Sox, on the other hand, have led the division almost continually since late May, and are just three years removed from a World Series — they’re supposedly holding all the cards, they brought in Griffey, they’re playing at home.

When everyone else is nervous, contrarian means confidence.

by dwintheiser on Sep 30, 2008 1:53 PM EDT 0 recs

I am going to predict

a big game from Gomez, 3-5 with a couple of doubles and a stolen base.

I think it will be a bit closer, maybe 7-5 Twins, with the Twins going up big early and Chicago hitting a few bombs in the later innings to make things interesting.

by guinness junky on Sep 30, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

hey you stole my prediction!

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Sep 30, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

hey man

you can’t like “own” a prediction… :) (said in a hippie voice)

by guinness junky on Sep 30, 2008 5:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

If you want to read some hilarious stuff

check out the comments on the SSS thread. A/C in the dome blowing out even made an appearance.

President of the Al Newman Fan Club

by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 2:23 PM EDT 0 recs

Wow

I am now dumber for having read that. My god, that was the worst drivel I have ever seen.

by neide on Sep 30, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

They run the spectrum, really.

The Cheat’s great, and the site moderators put up some great content, but the community runs the gamut from intelligent and creative to gutteral. It happens.

by Jesse on Sep 30, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree...

The Cheat, TAEG, and others are hilarious. I like their posts a lot, it’s just that I found a lot of the comments to be ridiculous and wanted to share that with Twinkie Town.

President of the Al Newman Fan Club

by Daymonster on Sep 30, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Twins will find a way to win today

I can see them losing but I just don’t think it’s going to happen.
Blackburn will give up some runs but not enough to sink the team. Span and Gomez have big games. Kubel hits a HR and Morneau and double off the wall to take the lead.

Yup, I’m pulling all of that out of the air but w/ one game left why should I think the worst? I’ve been a fan for 162, what’s one more game.

by caluofmn on Sep 30, 2008 4:00 PM EDT 0 recs