Was our 2008 #1 draft pick worth the money?
by Beerbear on Sep 6, 2008 10:39 PM EDT
31 comments
Aaron Hicks -
| Aaron Hicks | CF | 45 | 173 | 32 | 55 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 85 | 28 | 32 | 12 | 2 | .409 | .491 | .318 | .900 | 2 |
I know he is only 18 but I expected more out of him this season. .318 is a good looking average but only 4 homeruns doesn't shout power hitter. Am I missing something or did we draft him for his defensive abilities? Tonkin might have been a bigger draft success considering when and where he was picked. Let me hear ya!
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The leage
The league he is in is extremely pitcher friendly. his isolated power is way above league average. i am quite sure he ranks atop the league in nearly all categories.
Only 4 homers, but 10 doubles and 4 triples in only 173 At bats is solid. A nice even K/BB ratio too…
With the emergence of Span, we suddenly have almost too many of these guys! Joe Benson still has as much upside as anyone in the system, Dustin Martin defied expectations, and now Hicks is looking good. Gomez is still lurking around too. The future of our outfield as bright.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Hell no.
While it’s way too early to make a final judgement on that question, it’s hard to be much better than he was this season. I’m not even sure why you’re asking the question really…it’s like complaining that Joe Mauer doesn’t hit 20 home runs.
318/409/491…14.9% walk rate, 15.3% strikeout rate, .177 ISO…at 18, in that league, that’s outstanding.
Joe and HR's
Did you see the look on Joe’s face when he missed those two straight cookies from Rodney on Saturday? It looked like he tried to deposit both of them over the baggie. His face said “How the hell did I miss those?”
Just an observation, not a complaint.
We were going to pay
regardless, given the slotting system of the MLB draft. Yes, we could have gone below slot (see Revere, Ben), but IMO that’s not a good long term decision to give up on first round talent.
What a difference a year makes. Our outfielders now appear to be a strength (if not the strength) of the organization. OF and pitching.
by Adam Peterson on Sep 7, 2008 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Adam...if we look only at the center fielders...
…we are probably looking at the strongest position in the organzization.
We begin with Span and Gomez with the Twins. Jason Pridie is at Rochester and although he strikes out to much and didn’t start his season strong, he was voted the top defensive outfielder in the IL and had an excellent second half of the season finishing with 13 homers, 16 triples, 21 doubles and 25 stolen bases. Brandon Roberts was hurt much of the year, however, before the season was considered a step above Dustin Martin who was one of the top hitters in the Eastern League…who finished at .290/.355/.447 with 10 home runs, 8 triples, 34 doubles and 22 stolen bases. Edward Ovalle had one of the best, albeit quiet, seasons of anyone at Ft. Myers…hitting .284/.351/.412 with 11 triples, 7 home runs and 17 stolen bases. Now that Ft. Myers is in the playoffs and Tosoni has returned from a long stint on the DL, they have inserted him into center. Tosoni skipped Beloit going straight to Ft. Myers after an awesome first year of professional ball last year at ETon. Tosoni had only 140 at bats this year, however, hit .300/.408/.414 and was hitting .325 when he broke his foot. Revere had the highest average in baseball, .379, and may have taken a run at .400 if he hadn’t battled injuries the last month, plus of the season. Joe Benson is a tremendous young center fielder who went down missing the last half of the season for the Snappers. Add Hicks in the GCL and a young man who may be better than all of the above, Angel Morales, at Elizabethton and one can see that the Twins are loaded with centerfielders. Fortunately, a couple of these kids have legitimate power which may enable them to move to a corner outfield spot in the future.
True
We’re a bit weaker at the corner spots, but CF is a serious strength. Agree that a couple guys may be able to move to a corner OF spot, or someone like Revere back to the infield.
by Adam Peterson on Sep 9, 2008 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Gosh
What about Ben Revere?
Didn’t he lead all of minor league baseball in terms of average?
He might figure in to the mix at some point.
Oh yeah
Oh yeah, I meant Revere, not Martin.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
And Martin also...
…had a great year. I had him ranked as the 13th best player in the organization and look for him to join the Red Wings next season. I had Hicks ranked as the 27th best player in the system, which taking into consideration the deduct players get for the lower levels shows Hicks had an excellent season…Revere was 24th last year.
As for his rankings in the league…he was 8th in average, OBP and SLG. Hicks was tied for 16th with 12 stolen bases, however, he was tied for twelvth best net stolen bases as he was only thrown out 2 times. He was 12th in home runs with 4, however, there aren’t a lot of home runs in this league with only 6 players having more than 5. Throw in a #11 ranking in rbi, 8th most hits, 10th most doubles and 7th most triples and it is clear that Hicks was one of the premier players in the league. I can’t understand what more anyone would really exprect from an 18 year old young man getting his first exposure of professional ball.
About Hicks....
I think one of the reason scouts thought he was a very good talent was because of that word “potential.” He is still just a boy that will grow man muscles and fill his 6’2" frame out more. He already has shown that he can hit the long ball. LEN III ranked him as our 2nd best prospect, behind Wilson Ramos, go figure.
I am personally really looking forward to see Angel Morales speed through our system. Either way we have the potential have really really good OF in years to come.
Seriously?
The guy put up a 300/400/500 line as a centerfielder, and you’re concerned? That’s ridiculously good. But there are a few things to keep in mind:
1.) It’s rookie ball. Nobody cares about rookie ball. Minor league track records are an important part of the evaluation of any prospect, but rookie ball stats are practically worthless. The sample size is too small; the competition is too flaky; and the players are all adjusting to playing pro ball for the first time. Great prospects put up ugly numbers and terrible prospects put up gaudy numbers too often to take any of it too seriously.
2.) Aaron Hicks was considered an extremely raw talent. For him to hit at all, for power or not, is good news. His bat was (and really still is) a huge question. Leading up to the draft, people talked about his “power potential” because the kid’s a straw. He’s not a homerun hitter right now. Plus, the guys got 70 speed, so a lack of power wouldn’t be a huge concern. Also, the 28/32 BB/K ratio is really, really impressive.
3.) The one thing about which I’m really concerned is that he’s got a line drive rate under 8%. That’s just terrible. It’s so bad I’m seriously wondering if the numbers are right. In fact, looking at the monthly splits, it seems the more line drives he hits, the worse his numbers get. That’s weird. Could minorleaguesplits.com be wrong here?
Basically, in conclusion, it’s rookie ball, so don’t take the numbers too seriously. If you are going to insist on taking them seriously though, then you ought to be excited. Really, really excited. These are way better than anyone reasonably should’ve been expecting. This guy was a prep player, not a college guy. And he was raw for a prep player. He’s years away from the bigs, and he’s going to struggle on his way there. We drafted him so high for what he could one day be, not for what he is today.
Funny
Everyone complained last year that we paid too little. I have some sympathy with this view. Last year we spend something like $2.75 million, which was less than many teams paid for their number 1 pick. This year we spared no expense, and spent about the league average. I was particularly happy about signing the 6th-round pick—a first-round talent who fell because he plays in Iowa and he was determined to go to college. I have absolutely no complaints about the way the draft was handled this year, particularly in the signing department.
As for Hicks, he was one of the two or three best players in the FSL. He’s got Carlos Gomez tools. He will soon eclipse Ben Revere, who was the consensus MVP of the Midwest league, in ability. He will be a star in this league, if not this team, which is loaded with center fielders (Adam mentioned some, also Angel Morales (think Carlos Beltran) was the best center fielder in the Appy league.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
The big plus with Morales...
…is that he is nearly two months younger than Hicks. Putting up numbers like he did in the Appy League and he won’t turn 19 until late November. When he learns to cut down on his striketouts, his ceiling will be limitless.
How about...
…being a couple months younger and playing in a league that is both a step up and against competition that is a couple years older on the average. Most players in the GCL are right out of high school or young kids up from Latin America. Alot of the Appy League players are players who were in the GCL the year before or college players taken in this year’s draft.
Playing in a superior league and a few months younger…is that relevant?
Indeed
I believe the average age for the Appy League is 21. A lot of guys on the E-Ton Twins are 22, after spending three years in college. Morales is in his second year of pro ball at 18. This is significant. If he can play like this next year, he might make it to Fort Myers by the end of the year as a 19 year old. If I had to rate them right now, I would rate Morales ahead of Hicks, but they’re close. (That, BTW, was LEN3’s most glaring omission from his recent top 10 list.) I would say Morales, Hicks and Revere are all in my top five for the Twins.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Who would round out your top 5?
I’m just curious. I think that everyone feels we are strong at CF. The problem is that a lot of these guys are speed, so if their power doesn’t happen (at least, true power), than we are loaded at CF and mid-level starting pitching, but are weak at most of the the rest of the positions.
Just curious. Its getting to be that time of year to start evaluating strengths and weaknesses.
Ramos and Swarzak
This is all very quick and intuitive:
A-
1. Angel Morales
2. Wilson Ramos
3. Aaron Hicks
4. Ben Revere
————————
B+
5. Anthony Swarzak
6. Tyler Robertson
7. Deolis Guerra
—————————-
B
8. Danny Valencia
9. Kevin Mulvey
10. Luke Hughes
11. Brian Duensing
——————
B-
12. Jeff Manship
13. Michael McCardell
_
C+
14. Jonathan Waltenbury
15. Shooter Hunt
16. Philip Humber
17. Anthony Slama
18. Robert Delaney
——————-
C
19. Rene Tosoni
20. Evan Bigley
21. Daniel Osterbrock
22. Stephen Tolleson
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Will respond to CMaths list...
…A-) Would probably move Hicks down to a B or B+, based on the fact he was in low rookie ball.
…B+) I know he is young and highly thought of, but based on his performance would have to move Guerra down to a B- at best. Swarzak would have been lower in my opinion, until his great end of the season in AAA. Next year should tell us alot about him.
…B) I would have moved Valencia up to a B+. He did very well in AA after the first several weeks and was the best hitter in the FSL for the first half.
…C+) I feel that Slama and Delaney both need to be higher. Delaney has done an excellent job in AA, thus I would give him a B. Slama a B-.
…C) Tosoni was incredible early in the season, then missed most of the year. He came back for a few games and was strong in the playoffs. I would give him a B. Tolleson also had an excellent year, although marred by the DL. I would give him a B-.
Players that I would include: Dustin Martin (C+), David Winfree ©, Trevor Plouffe (B-), Erik Lis ©, Brian Dinkelman ©, Cole DeVries (C+), Jose Mijares (B…although his injury makes this a tough call and it would be nice to see him in a game up here), and Jarrad Eacott ©…although he also missed so much of this year.
Great list CMath!
Performance vs. tools
I agree on most of your assessments of the performance of players in the system. But if I ranked players solely on performance, the list would look very different than it does. I also look at scouting and tools.
For example, Guerra had a tough year. But he is only 18 at high A and the Twins completely overhauled his mechanics, which should result in better performance down the road. Another example is Valencia, who might be the minor league player of the year this year. But he projects as a solid major leaguer rather than a star. Hicks, on the other hand, projects as a star even though he only played in rookie ball as an 18 year old.
For me, upside is more important than performance. I’ve seen too many players like Terry Tiffee perform well at the minor league level but not so well in the majors because of limited upside.
I like the other players you list, though I might not rank them as high as you do. Martin needs to hit like a corner outfielder for me to rate him higher than a C because he’s no center fielder. Lis and WInfree need to field a position for me to rate them higher. I like DeVries and Dinkelman, but at their age, I’d like to see them against AA competition before I rank them higher. I’m not that high on Plouffe. It’s a bad sign that he didn’t play a lot of short in AAA. Mijares was a definite oversight. I’d rate him at least a B-. I hesitate to rate relievers higher.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Well, at least I got the discussion going with this post.
Hicks had a good season and his dollar value, as many stated, will be determined in the future. I wasn’t trying to bash him in this post. I just wanted to get some opinions on the draft and how he had done.
Will have a complete...
…update on everyone taken in this year’s draft in this weekend’s report.
C-Math....hmmm
Ramos an A-
and Tolleson a C
doesn’t sound right at all there to me.
Ramos isn’t that good, sure his defense was all year long and is spetacular
but if it wasn’t for his hot late summer turn-around he would have hit about .265 in High A ball
BTW, Guerra deserves no more than a B, probably a B-…..
Now, Tolleson a C Grade while hitting over .300 the whole year in a Higher League (AA)?
I dunno, I know that was just a quick post but it isn’t’ exactly accurate.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 12, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Age, power, defense
As I explained to Roger, I don’t factor numbers in as much as tools. I also look at age vs. level. Tolleson is a 24 year old utility player in AA. Ramos is a 20 year old catcher in A+. Also, when I do look at numbers, average is one of the least important stats for me. And you can’t just compare numbers from one level with another without taking into account league factors. For the most part, OPS will do. Ramos hit .779 in a pitchers league. Tolleson in 787 in a neutral league. Just on OPS alone, Ramos had a better year, and he’s four years younger and one level lower than Tolleson. Plus he has defensive tools Tolleson can’t match. Tolleson is at best another Tolbert. Ramos is the next starting catcher and a very good backup for as long as Joe wants to stay behind the plate.
I see Roger has already backed me up here. Thanks Roger.
As for Guerra, it’s tough to rate a pitcher who’s five years younger than the average pitcher at his level. Factor in a complete mechanical overhaul, and I wouldn’t pay too much attention to numbers. The experts (BA, Sickels, BP) thought he was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball coming into this year. And he hasn’t done anything to change that impression. Time will tell, but even if he repeats high A again next year, he’ll still be very young for that league, projecting a major league debut at age 20.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
CMath...
…I think you may think Guerra is a bit younger than he actually is. He began the season in Ft. Myers as an 18 year old…but turned 19 on April 17th. He still is very young, but will be a 20 year old for nearly all of next year.
Oh
My bad. Well, that changes things slightly, probably drops him to a B. If he doesn’t make it to AA next year, his stock will drop even further. If he makes it to AA, he’ll still be young for that league. Needless to say, next year is his put-up-or-shut-up year. Similar to Robertson, if he turns the corner next year, he could become the Twins top prospect. If, on the other hand, he continues to struggle, he’ll drop out of my top 10.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
If it wasn't for Ramos' hot late summer turn-around...
…he would have hit .265 in High A ball.
Hmm! Ramos numbers showed steady improvement from a slow start. He hit .203/in 79 at bats in April; .257/105ab in May; .282/85ab in June; .352/91ab in July and .337/92ab in August. To me that is not a hot late turn-around, rather, consistent improvement that one would expect of a young man who began play in Hi-A ball at the age of 20. Putting up the type of numbers he did for more than half the season confirms what many feel…that he is the Twins top catching prospect that likely has a ceiling of being a solid major league starter.
Good Point RogerD
I guess I would have to agree with you about the steady improvement, but still -for me I wouldn’t put him in the same Class as Danny Valencia or even Steven Tollesen just yet.
Potential, Potential, Potential is what Ramos’ boasts I know, But He needs to have an improved 2009 campaign for me especially if he starts off in Ft. Myers again.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 13, 2008 4:57 PM EDT reply actions
Yes, Valencia and Tolleson had better years...
…at AA. But, Valencia is 23 and Tolleson is 24….whereas, Ramos was 20 most of this season. He put up great numbers in the FSL which is known as a pitcher friendly league. He hit .288, which was 12th best in the league with 130 hits which were 7th best. His 13 home runs were 8th best and 78 rbi led the team and were 4th best in the league. Considering most prospects who are 20 years old are in low A, I would think that many in the Twins organization would consider him a superior prospect to both Valencia and Tolleson.
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