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They Grow Up So Fast: Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gomez kills me. With reckless abandon he has been hacking his way through plate appearances ever since Opening Day. If he somewhere down the line turns into a decent hitter, I will give the Twins' coaching staff full credit, because he simply doesn't seem to be able to adapt to anything by himself.

Yet, a couple of days ago someone on this site (I forgot who it was – sorry) suggested that Gomez might have altered his approach recently and actually patched together some good at bats along the way. This got me thinking a bit, and I decided to investigate the surmise.

To evaluate Gomez' "maturity" at the plate, I look at two stats: pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) and the percentage of plate appearances in which he swings at the first pitch (1PS%). This is obviously a gross simplificiation, but bear with me here. It's impossible to find (free) monthly splits for these numbers anywhere on the web, so I created a so-called spider which downloaded the necessary data from MLB.com's 2008 Gameday data. I then extracted the parts I needed for my research and the final output is a couple of interesting (albeit ugly) graphs.

I think you'll find my findings about Gomez' maturation encouraging, so please take a minute to review them.

Star-divide

Data and graphs

Broad overview

First I broke down Gomez' 2008 season into bins of 10 games (in which he came to bat at least once), meaning I lumped his 1st through 10th game together, then his 11th through 20th game, and so on. This gives us some more meaningful sample sizes to look at.

Here is the evolution of Gomez' "maturity stats":

Games1-1011-2021-3031-4041-5051-6061-7071-8081-9091-100101-110111-120121-127
PA 46 45 42 39 53 47 48 47 45 32 33 36 23
P/PA 3.48 3.64 3.24 3.64 3.42 3.06 3.33 3.30 3.07 3.09 3.61 3.69 3.91
1PS% 43.5% 48.9% 42.9% 35.9% 43.4% 46.8% 41.7% 51.1% 51.1% 43.8% 45.5% 41.7% 39.1%

I created two graphs to help illustrate the development:

Detailed breakdown

Next I decided to trade a more fine-grained view of Gomez' season for smaller sample sizes by narrowing the bins down to 5 games each. Please note that this results in only 21 PA per bin on average, so you may choose to disregard the next graphs completely if you think the samples are too insubstantial. Anyway, here are the same graphs as above, but now with 5 game bins and an added rolling average (unweighted average, unfortunately):

Conclusions

There are a number of interesting insights that can be gleaned from these graphs (and for that I'm very thankful since the data collection took five hours). Most notably, we get our suspicions confirmed that Gomez was indeed pressing and having worse-than-usual at bats during his horrible slump in June and July (around games 50-90). He was seeing approximately 15% fewer pitches per PA than his average line and swinging at the 1st pitch more than 50% of the time.

Since his demotion to the 9th spot in the batting order (somewhere around game 90), however, both maturity indicators have trended dramatically in the right direction. His P/PA during the last couple of weeks has actually been almost at league average and he's done a much better job at laying off the first offering once in a while. Furthermore, the positive development hasn't seemed to slow down, so maybe there's even more to come.

The question now is whether these improvements stem from the fact that he is playing less regularly and therefore is more rested, or because he doesn't feel the same pressure in the 9th hole that he does in the lead-off spot. Or maybe he has actually adjusted his approach and listened to some good ol' reason.

What do you think? Please tell me if there's anything you think needs to be done to improve the reliability of the data.

Note: There seems to be small inconsistencies in my data. I get 3 more PA for Gomez than Baseball Reference has recorded.

Poll
Has Carlos Gomez altered his hitting approach for the better recently?
Yes
40 votes
No, but he will learn soon
19 votes
No, he's a lost case
19 votes
Undecided
18 votes

96 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs | Comment 13 comments

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I can see you put a lot of work and thought into this. Kudos to you sir. It does appear that he might be “growing up” at the plate.

by WITwinsfan on Sep 9, 2008 8:35 AM EDT   0 recs

This is awesome

Last week I said I wanted to do an analysis like this but I’m too busy with my day job and grad school to do the work. So you have done this board an excellent service, sir. Thank you!

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 9, 2008 10:17 AM EDT   0 recs

No problem

I always have fun doing these things, and since a little C++ programming was necessary, I convinced myself that the exercise would serve as studying for my financial programming course.

by PhoenixV on Sep 9, 2008 12:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Enjoyable read

And interesting data to be sure.

Couple of things. Gomez likes to bunt, and he does so a lot on the first pitch. Do you know if offering at a first pitch as a bunter is considered a “swing”? Likely, but then, since surprise is part of the reason he does this, I’m not sure why that would be good or bad in measuring his patience as a hitter.

Also, ultimately, the goal is to drive the ball effectively as a hitter. What alarms me is what I think has been a drop off in Gomez’ power. He hasn’t been driving the ball. What about combining these graphs with some data on his extra base hits, or even just line drives?

In other words, it’s great to become more patient as a hitter, but does it actually work out that he gets his pitch and is able to connect? I’m not seeing it on the field, but maybe I’m missing the forest for the trees.

by Old Twins Cap on Sep 9, 2008 12:08 PM EDT   0 recs

With regard to the first point

I classified everything not recorded as a “Ball”, “Called Strike” or “Hit By Pitch” as a swing. I see your point that it’s difficult to draw the line between plate discipline and bunting ability for Gomez, but I can’t see any way to use the data more efficiently, unfortunately…

Combining the graphs with his hitting outcomes is a good idea, but most of that data is already available through splits at the various major stats websites or through David Pinto’s Day-By-Day Database, so I decided to focus on the harder-to-get numbers.

by PhoenixV on Sep 9, 2008 12:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He will either adapt his style of hitting or...

he will be gone. As was pointed out to me on my post about our #1 draft choice the Twins have alot of outfield dept in the minors. Gomez may have the rest of this season and maybe next year to figure it out. If he doesn’t there are several players that could and will take his place. There a lots of players who have a great speed and defense but can’t master the art of hitting. Usually their careers are short or in the AAA.
Go Twins….

by Beerbear on Sep 9, 2008 3:50 PM EDT   0 recs

Wow

Wow, you did great work on this. Unfortunately, I don’t see much evidence here for any kind of change beyond random variance over the season. In the last couple weeks there was a little spike, but nothing that can be called a trend yet.

In the end, I don’t think he’s a lost cause, but I stand by my conviction that he should have been in AAA to start the year. I think he should be back there next year with SPan starting in center. He still gets fooled frequently and does not consistently get good swings up there. I don’t think he’s learned much this year, not because of inability or laziness, but just because he wasn’t prepared to hold his own in the bigs.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Sep 9, 2008 4:39 PM EDT   0 recs

Great Work

I really like what you’ve done here. Looking at these graphs, I tend to agree it’s hard to see a clear upward trend in either statistic. Lots of what appears to be random noise.

I wonder what the same graphs would look like if you collected data on % chasing pitches outside the zone or % of balls put in play when he swings the bat.

Agree that Gomez appears to be trying, but it just doesn’t appear that he was ready at the plate this year.

by Adam Peterson on Sep 9, 2008 10:32 PM EDT   0 recs

Interesting questions

I can’t answer the part about percentage of pitches chased outside the zone, since I would then have to calculate the strike zone from the pitch f/x data, and that would be pretty tiresome.

However, I have two other graphs for you (both with 5 game bins, and both excruciatingly ugly to look at). The first one shows – as you suggest – the percentage of balls put in play per swing (BIP/Sw) by Gomez, while the second one simply shows his swing percentage (Sw%, swings divided by pitches). I don’t see any kind of trend in the graphs, so it should be safe to say that Gomez is neither making “better” contact with the ball nor keeping the bat more on his shoulder overall.


by PhoenixV on Sep 9, 2008 11:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Good stuff

A lot of bloggers used to bitch about the Twins lack of patience and OBP. Now they are 6th in the AL in OBP and scoring runs without the long ball. If one takes GoGo and First Pitch Young out of the lineup, this must be a patient team overall.

by wcooley on Sep 10, 2008 8:20 AM EDT   0 recs

Uh oh

I say a scary correlation.

Starting at game 100, Gomez’s pitches per plate appearance have steadily risen.
Starting at game 100, Gomez’s BIP/swing have steady fallen.

Is it possible that P/PA is going up, because he is swinging and missing? That would be a disappointing trend.

by snolls on Sep 10, 2008 10:05 AM EDT   0 recs

Patience

Patience should mean that when you swing, you are swinging at easier pitches to hit. I agree that we have a very patient lineup right now. Span, Casilla, Mauer, Monreau and Kubel are all extremely patient, and Buscher looks pretty good too. If Young and Gomez could learn from those around them, this team’s OBP would rise a lot, and opposing pitchers would be leaving the game earlier.

by snolls on Sep 10, 2008 10:07 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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