Would I be willing to trade Baker for Hardy?

First off, signing Sheets would probably bump Perkins out of the rotation. I would project Sheets at a 3.4 WAR and Perkins at a 1.3. This would result in a cool increase of 2.1 WAR, a nice return for signing Sheets.

Now, consider trading Baker (3.3 WAR) for Hardy. I would project Hardy as .349 wOBA / +13 runs fielding = 4.6 WAR. From a one for one / WAR perspective, I would consider Hardy to be more valuable than Baker. Deciding on a trade would depend on the replacement for each position. Hardy would replace Punto (.297 wOBA / +12 runs fielding) = 1.5 WAR. Baker would be replaced in the rotation by Perkins (1.3 WAR). That tells me the net projected effect of the trade would be -2.0 (Perkins 1.3 – Baker 3.3) pitching and +3.1 hitting (Hardy 4.6 – Punto 1.5). In other words, an additional net increase of 1.1 WAR. This could further increase due to Punto now moving into the UT role, meaning he’d get the backup PA at SS (instead of Harris) and 2B (instead of Tolbert).

So yes, I would be willing to trade Baker for Hardy, but only if we signed Ben Sheets. Overall, if we made these two moves, I would see us improving by 0.1 WAR (Sheets 3.4 – Baker 3.3) pitching and 3.1 hitting (Hardy vs Punto). +3.2 WAR overall, well worth signing Sheets to a 2 year contract in the $8M per year range and losing our first round draft pick, IMO.

I agree, would probably sign Cruz before I’d sign Hudson. Would not be as long a contract, and a cheaper price, IMO.

of signing Cruz, Hudson and Sheets. Here’s how I would see it playing out, from a projected WAR perspective.

1. Juan Cruz – I would project 65 IP, 3.50 tRA, comes out to 1.1 WAR. Cruz would likely be replacing innings that I had projected as replacement value, he adds +1.1 wins to the bottom line. If we sign him, we’ll have a pretty full bullpen, likely will not keep both Bonser and Humber, who are out of options.

2. Ben Sheets – I would project 150 IP (take into account injuries) and 3.70 tRA, comes out to 3.4 WAR. Sheets would replace 100 innings currently allocated to Perkins and 50 Humber innings (he’s likely the odd man out). I would expect to see Perkins pitch out of the bullpen, replacing Humber’s 60 IP there. Overall, signing Sheets bumps our pitching WAR an additional +2.2 WAR, up to 23.7.

3. Orlando Hudson – I would project Hudson giving us 550 PA at .340 wOBA. However, his defense has been below average UZR the past three years, so I put him at -2.5 runs. Moving Casilla to SS (400 PA, plus an additional 150 backing up Hudson at 2B) and giving Punto the other 300 PA has a total net effect of an additional +1.1 WAR, up to 22.3 total.

Overall, I would project the three signings to bump us up from a projected 86.6 wins to 90.9. +4.3 wins has a value of about $20M, so we’d be paying market value for the WAR increase if we signed to a total of $20M for next year.

Of the three signings, Cruz and Sheets appear to give better bang for the buck than Hudson. Unless we can sign Hudson for 2 years / $10M, I don’t think it makes a lot of sense. Cruz and Sheets make much more sense, perhaps we find a bargain there.

Given the above, I’d target Juan Cruz for 2 years / $8M, Sheets to 2 years / $18M, with a vesting third year option, and offer Hudson 2 years / $10M. I don’t expect the market has gone down that far for these guys, but we’d be on the hook for an additional $18M in 2009 and 2010, in return for becoming the clear favorite to win the AL Central. As long as the additional payroll doesn’t hinder our ability to sign Mauer to an extension, I’m all for giving up the three first round picks to get these guys.

I would put our lineup/rotation as follows:

1. Span
2. Hudson
3. Mauer
4. Morneau
5. Cuddyer
6. Kubel
7. Harris/Buscher
8. Casilla
9. Gomez
Bench: Redmond, Young, Buscher, Punto

Rotation: Sheets, Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn (Perkins, Bonser in the wings)
Bullpen: Nathan, Cruz, Crain, Breslow, Perkins, Bonser, Guerrier

Humber would be the odd man out here, and Tolbert / Mijares have options, I’d start them out at AAA. If we’re looking at trades, I’d see if Texas, Washington, Colorado, etc would be interested in a Humber-Bonser package. Would they be sufficient to get Elvis Andrus from Texas? He would be in line for a 2010 arrival, perhaps back up Punto that year and step in 2011. Great defensively, tons of speed. Imagine Andrus, Gomez, Casilla and Span in the same lineup. They can run all day, with excellent defense.