2009 Pitching Projections

by Jesse on Jan 14, 2009 8:39 PM EST in By the Numbers Comment 12 comments

So we've already done a tentative review of the offensive side of things. While I'm still fairly conservative for some of our pitchers, the guys involved and the state of the bullpen mean I have to make a few more random estimates compared to the hitters.

The Starting Five

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	G	GS	BB	K	WHIP	WPA
Francisco Liriano	14-9	3.81	175	29	29	58	191	1.31	3.04
Scott Baker	12-8	3.96	196	32	32	45	139	1.23	2.87
Kevin Slowey	13-9	3.87	174	30	30	34	134	1.27	1.31
Nick Blackburn	10-11	4.26	202	32	32	37	99	1.46	0.44
Glen Perkins	8-11	5.03	143	27	27	48	85	1.52	0.03

Right. So the first thing I'm tackling here is WPA. Mostly this is an experiment for me, to see exactlyl how well I understand (or, more accurately, DON'T understand how it works). I'm only taking it on for starters though, so don't let your pants get too tight.

I've listed the starters in order of how strong I expect each of them to be. In '09 I do expect Francisco Liriano to regain some of his Ace status, as long as he can stay healthy, and I also believe that Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey can deliver performances that are easily something more than just adequate. Nick Blackburn earns a spot as a reliable and steady number four, while Glen Perkins will likely struggle with some inconsistency if 2008 was any clue to his future.

As usual, I also haven't adjusted for likely injuries. I've assumed that other guys will make a spot start from time to time, but there are only 12 more starts to go around. Wins, losses and ERA, as arbitrary as they are, are still numbers widely used in projections...so I've suffered them here, in my first ever yearly predictions for the pitching staff.

Onto the bullpen...which should be interesting...

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	G	GS	S	BB	K	WHIP
Boof Bonser	6-7	3.87	94	51	4	1	29	74	1.31
Craig Breslow	4-2	3.25	55	54	0	1	20	42	1.28
Jesse Crain	3-2	3.64	62	68	0	2	23	48	1.33
Brian Duensing	1-1	4.41	19	8	0	0	8	15	1.44
Matt Guerrier	3-5	4.08	67	70	0	1	23	44	1.42
Philip Humber	4-5	4.62	73	49	5	0	26	47	1.47
Bobby Korecky	1-3	4.23	28	23	0	0	11	16	1.50
Jose Mijares	1-2	3.87	38	39	0	3	7	29	1.31
Joe Nathan	2-2	2.41	68	67	0	35	17	71	1.03
Anthony Swarzak	1-2	4.07	29	7	3	0	9	21	1.39

Believe it or not, those win totals add up to 162 games...which, I'm not joking, was a complete accident. Sadly, if the totals are accurate, the Twins will finish somewhere around 83-79. Possible, sure, but I'm still rooting for 90. I'm an optimist.

I think the most unrealistic thing is that I don't project anyone to be positively horrific. By the same token, apart from Joe Nathan there aren't any bullpen arms to be afraid of if you're an opposing hitter. A good bounce-back year by Boof Bonser, some reliable performances from Craig Breslow and Jesse Crain, but almost everyone else falls somewhere in the middle of the road.

If the pitching staff were to perform at this level on the whole, a good offense should be able to provide enough support to win more than 83 games. Right now I'm not convinced the Twins have this offense, in spite of all the young talent on the roster. But we still have plenty of time to speculate over that.

Fee free to debate the numbers at your leisure. Tomorrow we have another "Who Am I?" on the docket, as well as an exploration of how to manage the situation in the outfield.

0 recs | Comment 12 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Nice work

I share your optimism about Baker and Slowey. However, I think we need to temper our enthusiasm regarding Blackburn. From 1998-2007 only 14 pitchers managed to pitch more than 190 innings in one season with an ERA less than or equal to 4.26 while striking out less than or equal to 4.5 batters per 9. Only Kenny Rogers and our beloved Carlos Silva have accomplished it in two separate years.

More importantly, only three times did it happen that the starter’s ERA fell the following year after such a feat. In the remaining 13 instances the ERA rose, and often substantially. In fact, the average ERA increment for the soft tossers was a whopping 0.83.

This leads me to put much more faith in Blackburn’s CHONE projection, which comes out at 4.83.

by PhoenixV on Jan 14, 2009 11:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Funny

I’m not super confident, but I actually think there is a chance that Blackburn beats this line. I don’t know that I expect him to hit 200 innings though.

Slowey, on the other hand, I have less confidence in. His numbers are pretty good, but my experience watching him pitch just makes me confused as to why he isn’t more hittable. Remember that he doesn’t throw much harder than Blackburn, and with less movement. He definitely misses more bats, but Blackburn just seems to be deceptive enough.

Anyway, we’ll see. I’m very hopeful for both, I just see more risk around Slowey’s projection.

by snolls on Jan 15, 2009 8:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Strike One

Don’t underestimate the value of being able to hit one’s spots (esp lower inside and outside corners) and get strike one on a batter. Once the count goes to 0-1, the hitter is on the defensive. Also, Slowey showed he can be dominant throughout the minors.

Blackburn is more risky to me (IMO). He also has very good control, but he pitches to contact much more. The low strikeout rate may hurt him. Looking at Blackburn’s peripherals (SO/BB, GB/FB, BABIP), I do not expect to see a regression, as the numbers were pretty solid. As long as he throws a lot of ground balls and doesn’t walk hitters, Blackburn can end up with an ERA in the low 4’s. I’m guessing he jumps a bit to around 4.35, but not as far as Bill James projects.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 15, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Meant CHONE, not Bill James...

by Adam Peterson on Jan 15, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Innings

I confess to not spending too much time in the numbers, but some of theses innings totals look low to me. Specifically, I expect both Liriano and Slowey to pass the 200-inning mark.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 15, 2009 9:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nature of projections

It all depends on what projections you’re posting. In most cases (e.g., fangraphs), the mean projection is posted. In the case of Liriano and Slowey (and most other pitchers), projections will assume 170-180 innings to account for likely stints on the DL. I expect 200 innings to be about the ceiling for Liriano next year, so it’s logical to expect a mean to be lower. Perhaps the ceiling is a little higher for Blackburn and Slowey. IMO, projecting 202 IP for Blackburn feels a bit high if it was intended as a mean…

by Adam Peterson on Jan 15, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff

Over at Beyond the Boxscore, Sky is coordinating an MLB-wide set of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), with each team’s community managing its own set of projections.
Community WAR Project 2009

I have volunteered to manage the Twins projections, and recommended to BTB that Twinkie Town host the “official” discussion of our projections, playing time, etc. I started by incorporating the projections I posted here last week (including rest of AL Central), but I’d be happy to incorporate Jesse’s projections and update based on the discussions here.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 15, 2009 12:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Extra starts

will probably be split between Bonser and Humber. My guess is that Humber would be first, considering he’ll probably be pitching in long relief and his arm will be “stretched out”. I think Bonser will pitch more of a short role, allowing Guerrier to move to 6th-7th inning role he excelled in previously. I’d love to see Bonser get his confidence back in the bullpen.

After Humber/Bonser, among the AAA guys, I think Mulvey is the front runner. Will depend on how ST goes for the group.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 15, 2009 12:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Scooty-Bake

I swear I’m the only one who thinks Baker will have a better year on balance than the F-Bomb, and I don’t know why. I just don’t see him replicating anything close to his 2006 success. A good-to-very-good MLB pitcher, yes. The second coming of Sandy Koufax that he looked like 2 1/2 years ago, not so much. Jesse’s prediction is definitely toward the top end of what I expect out of him this year.

Baker, on the other hand, seems like a guy who has figured out this whole major-league thing and is ready to take the next step and be the most consistently excellent starter we’ve had (outside Johan) in a few decades. His numbers last year were outstanding, especially for a 26-year-old with some questionable-at-times defense behind him. I see him with an ERA closer to 3.00 and a K/9 rate higher than last year’s (whereas Jesse has him lower).

Slowey feels like he’s ready for a breakout year. As optimistic as Jesse’s prediction seems on the surface, I could see Kevin hanging out closer to a very reliable and durable 3.50 ERA with mediocre Ks more than balanced out by the nonexistent walk rate. Crossing my fingers here, but I like Slowey a lot.

I’m definitely a Blackburn doubter. Feels very Brian Bannister 2.0 to me. Jesse’s numbers feel right to me with the exception that I think he’ll see his ERA go up farther due to his RISP performance regressing. That said, I’ll happily take a 4.50-ish ERA in the back of the rotation for serf wages.

Perkins is going to be terrible and get bumped to the pen again in favor of some other internal option. Can we trade him already?

formerly known in these parts as adamb

by ravenfly on Jan 15, 2009 2:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Liriano is no Santana or Koufax

I could see a Carlton-like pitcher, though. As long as he keeps his head about him, he should be better than Baker. I like Baker about as much as I liked Radke or Tapani, which is a lot. But he doesn’t have the stuff to be an ace. The only reason why Radke was an ace until Santana hit his stride was because there was no true ace on the staff. If Liriano pitches like he’s capable of, he’s an ace.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 15, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I loved me some Bradke (got my #22 jersey; I always admired his sportsmanship), but I think you’re selling Baker short. Their age-26 seasons:



          GS  IP     ERA   HR9  BB9  K9   WHIP

Radke     33  218.2  3.75  1.2  1.8  5.0  1.29

Baker     28  172.1  3.45  1.0  2.2  7.4  1.18</pre

Also, Bradke had logged almost 900 major league innings at that point; Baker had around 280. Radke’s highest season mark for K/9 in the majors was 6.5 in 1997 (his age 24 season); Baker’s worst was 5.4 in his first MLB year (age 24, 2005).

Baker is not as susceptible to the longball (though he gives up his share), allows noticeably fewer baserunners, and can actually miss major-league bats. Lord knows if he can get anywhere close to Bradke’s legendary durability (seriously, his IP numbers are scary), but you’d be hard-pressed to say that Baker’s stuff isn’t noticeably better than.

I agree that Baker will most likely never turn into a “true” ace in the Johan or Maddux or Lincecum molds, but those guys are HOF quality pitchers. There are an awful lot of teams both today and throughout history that would be happy to have him in front of the rotation, and as I fan I am as well.

formerly known in these parts as adamb

by ravenfly on Jan 15, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Depends on what you mean by "ace"

If you mean a guy with the ability to go sub-3.00 ERA, shutout any time he pitches, I agree. However, Baker showed me something down the stretch. He was definitely our ace in September, and it was not by default. Big game after big game he was our ace. Too bad our offense and bullpen gave it away.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 16, 2009 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs