Arch Nemesis in 2009: Regression to the Mean?
by PhoenixV on Jan 17, 2009 11:36 PM EST
40 comments
We all know that the Twins hit ridiculously well with runners in scoring position (RISP) last year. Just how clutch were they? Well, their OPS with RISP was .826 (2nd in MLB, after the ballpark-boosted Rangers), far higher than the overall team OPS of .748. Now of course, many analysts have demonstrated that teams on average tend to hit better with RISP than without, but Minnesota's performance last year was of a staggering magnitude.
In this post I discuss two topics:
- Is hitting with RISP a "skill", i.e. can we expect the Twins to repeat to some extent?
- If not, how "lucky" did the Twins get last year? How big of a hit does our expectations for next year take?
I think the conclusion is quite positive. If you're interested, please read on after the jump.
Is there a problem?
First I loaded the data from ESPN's Team Stats from 2000-2008 into Excel. As a measure of offensive performance I use 2OPS = 1.8 * OBP + SLG, which is a better predictor of run scoring than simple OPS and also corresponds fairly well to wOBA. For each team in each season I then calculated the ratio of 2OPS with RISP to overall 2OPS (which inherently includes the performance with RISP). Let's call this ratio, expressed as a percentage, RISP+.
How much better did the Twins hit with RISP than overall last season? By my measure, their RISP+ was 110.8, so they basically lifted their offensive game by more than 10.8% when they needed it most. I say "more than" because we must remember that the overall 2OPS in the numerator also includes the RISP hitting.
The mean (and median) RISP+ in my data is 103.2, with the 1st quartile at 100.7 and the 3rd quartile at 105.6. As we already knew, teams generally perform better with RISP.
However, it turns out that since 2000 only 7 times has a team posted an RISP+ higher than 110 (the Twinkies were the only ones to do it in 2008). In every single case, team RISP+ dropped at least 5 points in the next season. That's regression toward the mean for ya.
We can paint a clearer picture of this. I grouped RISP+ numbers from 2000 to 2007 together with the corresponding team's change in RISP+ in the following season. The plot below shows the connection between clutchness one year and the change in clutchness the next year:
Now that's a clear relationship. The lesson: If your team posts a high RISP+ one year, it is very likely that they will perform worse in the clutch the next season. All the 15 best RISP+ scores were accompanied by a subsequent drop.
I added a linear regression line because the relationship looks fairly linear. The coefficient of determination comes out at almost 0.5, which roughly can be interpreted as saying that knowing your basics about regression toward the mean can tell you as much about the variation of next year's clutch performance as all other factors you can think of, combined.
So now we know that the Twins are probably due for a setback next year, since posting a high RISP+ doesn't seem to be a repeatable skill. How big will that correction be?
How big is the problem?
I will try to give a catious estimate about how lucky the Twins got last year when there were runners on. By simply plugging the Twins' 110.8 figure into the regression equation shown above we get an expectation of a 6.7 point drop in RISP+ next year, or almost right in line with the average (as the concept of regression toward the mean would suggest). The standard error for the regression coefficient is 0.063, so there's a lot of room for measurement error, but let's just keep things simple here.
This suggests that the Twins' "fair" or "luck neutral" RISP+ last year should have been around 104, which means that if we fix overall 2OPS, the Twins should have had a 2OPS with RISP of around 1.061, whereas their actual 2OPS with RISP was 1.130.
How many runs would that decrease in clutch performance have cost the team last season? That's hard to say. 2OPS is just a scaling of The Hardball Times' Gross Production Average (GPA). In their stat glossary (see the previous link) THT lists a way to convert GPA into runs, so I did that for the two 2OPS figures. By this method, the Twins seem to have gained 28 runs from pure luck. But we need to remember that THT's run conversion formula is calculated based on an "average" setting, and when there are RISP, the setting is decidedly not average. Thus, 28 runs is at best a lower bound, since the runners which are already on base benefit enormously from better hitting results.
To get another estimate, I ran a quick linear regression of the GPA vs. the number of runs scored per plate appearance with RISP (2008 data only, Twins numbers excluded). The R-squared was 0.25, so the relationship isn't all that strong, but let's keep playing. When inserting the Twins 2OPS figure, I get that with their number of PA with RISP they should have scored 48 runs less than they did (of course, their PA would also have declined a bit if they had been less clutch).
Conclusion
So it seems like Lady Luck helped the Twins to around 30-50 extra offensive runs last season, corresponding to about 3-5 wins. The Pythagorean Formula thus puts the Twins' "fair" record somewhere between 84-78 and 86-76 for the regular season (excluding the fateful one-game playoff).
This really doesn't seem bad to me. I had expected the analysis to show that the Twins played waaaay over their heads last year. If Span and the pitching staff don't regress too much overall next year, we might actually still have a decent shot at the division title!
The number juggling above leaves a lot to be desired in terms of error estimates and so on, but I will still venture the assertion that based on core talent, the Twins are one level better than a .500 team right now, which is more than adequate to compete in the AL Central.
Any comments?
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Of course
One might argue that since various projection systems have already pegged the Twins as a 85-86 win team next year, I’m – once again – just stating the obvious. However, arguing that would be cruel.
On the other hand...
…maybe suddenly Joe Vavra isn’t a schmuck who never was a great big-league hitter and thus can’t possibly know anything about hitting.
Probably not the case, of course, but when the hitting goes south for the Twins, the “short” people start grabbing at that low-hanging bit of fruit. Oddly, for them, the reverse is never true.
homeruns
last year we very much lacked the long ball, even from people like Morneau who only hit 23. We made this up by hitting very well with RISP. This year, the avg RISP will likely decline, but I’d bet we hit more homeruns than last year as a team.
Nice analysis
I really like it, and the results make intuitive sense to me.
I think that next year we can still hope for good years out of Mauer and Morneau. I expect Span to regress, but hopefully Casilla can offset that (I think the injury hurt him a lot). So, in the end, I think that we can hope for the offense to improve on the back of Cuddyer, Young, and the Buscher/Harris combo. On the other hand, Punto will probably decline.
Basically, I think our offense can provide us as much as it did last year. RISP will fall, but but power and OBP should rise, slightly. I’m most hopeful about power. If we could get 55 HR out of Morneau + Kubel, 40 out of Young + Cuddyer, and 20 out of the Harris/Buscher combination, I would be happy, and I don’t think it is unreasonable.
Joe Vavra has his work cut out for him
No Twins’ player has ever hit 55 home runs in a season.
EVER.
Moreau has never hit 35. Only one player hit more than 40 in the big leagues last season.
You are being entirely unreasonably with your home run expectations.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
by Johnny Safron on Jan 18, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe it's 'cause I just woke up
But is the above post sarcastic? I’m pretty sure snolls meant that he wanted 55 HR from Morneau and Kubel combined, and so on. :)
Ah
Didn’t read it that way. Even that way;, Kubel had over 500 PAs last year. That isn’t likely to increase if you throw Cuddyer in fulltime and presume health/production among the outfielders. Kubel’s probably still young enough that his HR production could rise, but I can’t see that happening with the current roster configuration. With the current scenario, his PAs will decrease.
A more likely scenario – based almost solely on the fact his brother was a double-digit HR producer, is to hope that the allegedly more talented of the brothers, Delmon, surges well into the 20s. If he weren’t such a “free spirit,” I’d say sign Manny, make him the DH and engineer a trade to break what would be a growing logjam. The Twins are already pocketing corporate money for private suites – have been for some time – and are flush with season ticket-holders’s money as they jockey for Target Field seats. I would say, inflation adjusted, the Twins/Senators franchise has never been so flush with cash.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
by Johnny Safron on Jan 18, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
Combined
I was thinking that if Morneau could get around 30, Kubel could get around 25. I think Kubel is still improving, and I think that Morneau, if his legs stay strong, is capable of 35, so I don’t think I’m being too optimistic here.
Young + Cuddyer might be more optimistic, but this accounts for Cuddyer being slightly over 20, and Young slightly under.
Harris/Buscher should each get 300+ at bats. It sort of depends whether Harris 12 HR in 600 at bats inn Tampa is replicable.
RSIP
Interesting,
Someone posted an article on the subject late last season. The article basically concluded there was no statistical explanation for the Twins with a higher RISP vs. BA.
I am not a real stat’s believer, yet I am a gambler. The article chose 9/10 years for the analysis period. Over that time, the 1st 4/5 years, ALL, RSIP were lower than BA, in the last 5 years (prior to 2008) the Twins were extremely consistant with a RISP higher than their BA. Something like 8%, +10,11,+11,and +12 (memory might be incorrect by a point on a couple of those…NO 9 a double 10 or 11). Then last year the number was higher than the consistant 5 year record. NOTE: The true variant was the team BA. This spread held consistant whether the Team BA was .256 or .278.
IF I was at a roulette table and the last 5/6 spins were red, my money would be on red until the trend/streak changed.
Since the RISP above BA is resonable consistant, and until something different happens, @10% could/should be expected.
I’d be looking for "average"hitters. Presuming the RISP regresses closer to 10%, IF the team BA increases 5 percentage points, same/similar RISP as last year.
Problem solved :-)
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
Let's remember something here...
Statistics are attempts at describing events on the field. They are accurate to the extent that they reflect some aspect of the game, in this case BA with RISP. But, to players on a team, the goal is not to have a high BA with RISP as much as it is to do everything you can to win the game, which, with a runner on means NOT MAKING AN OUT, unless, of course, it helps your team to win the game, i.e. SF or such.
Thus, what you are really measuring here is the extent to which Twins players do everything in their power to win games by scoring runs when they have the opportunity to do so. I would submit that we are getting into an area, “clutchiness”, that statistics are not really able to represent very well, because it bears directly on how much a team believes in itself and its ability to win.
As well, there are RISP in blowouts, and then there are RISP in close games. And, there are RISP with Mauer coming up, and there are RISP with Everett coming up. All things are not equal when spreading these stats across the whole team. Will Mauer regress to the mean next year with RISP? It may just be that he is an excellent all-around hitter and player and contributes a disproportionate share of the high RISP average to the team; as does Morneau.
In that light, a more interesting analysis might be to analyze over the last decade how important hitting with RISP has been to winning the World Series. If a team can still win games with only an average to slightly above average RISP average, then the Twins might hit lower with RISP this year and still do better as a team.
Also, the more times you have RISP, the better chance you eventually will score. How about: how many times did the Twins get runners in scoring position last year versus other teams?
The bottom line is winning games, whether close ones or in a blowout. While the Twins RISP average may fall, and by rights should, I don’t see how that necessarily means they will or will not win more games.
Also, by not trying to drive the ball out of the park on every swing, it may, in fact, allow a player to hit for a better average. Thus, OBP and RISP average may also be higher on a non-power hitting team, creating different run-scoring opportunities than a power hitting club.
Comments
Please remember that what I’m measuring above is production with RISP compared to overall production, not just the BA with RISP. Thus, even though Mauer – by virtue of beging an awesome hitter in general – will always be pretty good with RISP, he is unlikely to have a skillset which enables him to consistently step up his game when there are runners on, compared to his baseline talent.
As has been demonstrated clearly and meticulously in The Book, “clutch” ability does exist, but its magnitude is much, much smaller than what casual fans believe.
I think I’ve demonstrated that posting big RISP+ numbers is not a repeatable skill, so we would expect the Twins to hit worse with runners in scoring position next year. All else being equal, this will hurt the team on offense next year, since there is no situation where it is more important to hit well than with RISP. It’s true that they might not hit worse, and they might get lucky with the timing of the hits that do fall in, but our best guess is that it will hurt them. That’s the essense of statistics.
To see how many players each team had on base last year, just multiply team OBP with PA (and add ROE). Posting good OBP’s has been shown to be a repeatable skill.
RISP
Two things make the Twins more apt to hit better with RISP:
1. Speed: When guys are taking the extra base, it changes the way the other team plays defense. They have to play more conservatively, giving up more hits to prevent extra-base hits and trying to contain the running game. Also, when you put runners in motion, it puts the defense in motion, which seems to increase your odds of base hits that would otherwise be routine grounders.
2. Aggressiveness: Some teams like the Red Sox are content to patiently wait for the pitcher to make a mistake. The Twins get more aggressive when things start rolling and they sense an ambush. The Twins are like piranhas in more ways than one: When they smell blood, they start to play more aggressively, swinging earlier in the count, running more, and generally putting more pressure on the defense. This leads to a higher average with RISP, though perhaps a lower OBP with RISP.
I don’t think all the differential above the mean can be explained by Gardy’s methods. But some of it can. There’s bound to be some regression to the mean, but not as much as a station-to-station, patient team like the A’s.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Don't agree
It would be an interesting study to couple my analysis above with team speed scores to see if faster teams do in fact perform better with RISP. However, without having carried this out, I tend to not believe your reasoning. Here’s why:
1. In The Book (pp. 326-328) the authors find that the speed of the runner on base does not affect the RISP advantage to the batter. Remember, putting the defense in motion also disrupts the batter.
2. I can’t see why swinging earlier in the count would lead to higher BA. And even if it did, the lower OBP that might result from this would actually lower the Twins’ RISP+ scores. If the batters just in general benefit from “being aggresive”, why wouldn’t they do this without RISP too?
It is true that since 2004 the Twins have posted RISP+ figures slightly above average each year (by an average 3% from 2004-2007), so they may indeed have a certain propensity to hit well in the clutch. However, the effect is small and I don’t think it is entirely clear what causes this.
lineup construction
I don’t know much about statistics, so forgive me if I’m missing something obvious, but it occurs to me that the Twins might have a batting average with RISP that is above average because Mauer and Morneau are usually hitting in those situations—and they are so much better than other batters in the lineup. Managers go to a lot of trouble to construct their lineups so that the best hitters have the most opportunities to drive in runs. Obviously it doesn’t work out that way all the time, but I bet Mauer and Morneau came up to bat with runners in scoring position a lot more frequently than anyone else in the lineup. So the body of ABs from which team BA is calculated has full representation of everyone’s BA, including Gomez, Harris, etc., while the body of ABs from which BA with RISP in it has an unbalanced number of Mauer and Morneau ABs. This fact, regardless of anyone performing differently in the clutch, would result in a higher average.
For another team, the difference is not likely to be so great, particularly if they don’t have a batting champ hitting in the three hole and if they have stronger hitters (and higher team BA) throughout the rest of the lineup.
Very valid point
That’s a clever observation that I actually hadn’t though about. To get around this problem I should weight the individual components of team 2OPS by the number of PA each batter has with RISP, but that must wait for another time I’m afraid. Still, looking at Mauer and Morneau, both performed drastically better with RISP than without, and I’m hard pressed to believe that they can keep this up.
awesome point
I think you’re absolutely right, that the Twins’ RISP numbers should reflect that RBI opportunities more often come to Mauer and Morneau than to the other hitters. While all teams construct their lineups to provide rbi opportunities to their best hitters, the disparity between the best hitters and the worst hitters is probably higher on the Twins than on the average team, so our RISP numbers should be that much higher than our total numbers.
PhoenixV is right that Mauer and Morneau should not have such a high disparity between RISP hitting and non-RISP hitting, and that will probably regress to the mean — but the mean in their case is still damn good.
Good point
but I think you’re underestimating the fact that every team’s lineup is constructed this way, to provide RBI opportunities to the best hitters. Sorted by AB with RISP,
Morneau (181)
Young (160)
Kubel (139)
Mauer (138)
Gomez (135)
Harris (118) got the most AB with RISP. I’d have to compare this distribution to other teams, but the White Sox at first glance appear to have a similar distribution with Dye, Cabrera, Thome and Quentin at the top.
by Adam Peterson on Jan 21, 2009 7:55 AM EST up reply actions
wow
That is very interesting, and not what I expected. I forgot about Young being in the 5 hole so much. I was thinking, how many teams have two mvp candidates near the top, and several AAAA type guys at the bottom? But your list below, and Cmath’s chart showing a 29 point jump from 07 to 08, (from .276 to .306) convince me that this year was most likely just a fluke.
Much of last year may have been a fluke
but in the case of our 3-4 hitters, Mauer and Morneau have consistently had higher batting averages in RISP vs non-RISP situations. Only in Morneau’s 2005 season (when he batted .233) have either of them batted worse RISP vs non-RISP.
Mauer 2008: +4.7 hits .362 RISP, .328 overall
Mauer 2007: +3.4 hits .324 RISP, .293 overall
Mauer 2006: +1.6 hits .360 RISP, .347 overall
Mauer 2005: +4.5 hits .331 RISP, .294 overall
Morneau 2008: +8.7 hits .348 RISP, .300 overall
Morneau 2007: +3.4 hits .291 RISP, .271 overall
Morneau 2006: +0.3 hits, .323 RISP, .321 overall
Morneau 2005: -2.4 hits, .221 RISP, .233 overall
Considering Mauer’s 191 RBI / 131 H = 1.46 RBI/H with RISP (3 yr avg) and Morneau’s 270 RBI / 167 H = 1.62 RBI/H over the same period, it appears that (rough calculation, considering only AVG) Mauer and Morneau have contributed an additional 20.7 and 16.2 runs, respectively, simply because they have stepped it up with RISP.
by Adam Peterson on Jan 21, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
One pitch
Most big league hitters will tell you they get one good pitch to hit per AB. I’m not including guys like Mauer and Wade Boggs – both of whom oozed rare talent – when I use the term “most big league hitters.” So it’s not like these men get to pick and choose at this level and say, “I guess I’ll swing early,” or “I guess I’ll work the count.” Now, game situations and the pattern and success of the guy on the mound also plays into this, but you can’t put any of that onto a spreadsheet or categorize it with the mere opinion that "When they smell blood, they start to play more aggressively’.
It’s quite telling that people take something as difficult as hitting a baseball and reduce it to being patient or being aggressive. There are myriad propositions to consider in a real life baseball game with real life big leaguers playing. These things are all so terribly lost on the pocket-protector/beer-in-the-stands/ass-on-the-couch-in front-of-the-TV followers of the game.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
The open question
is whether there are inherent aspects of the Twins’ hitting approach, lineup, team speed, etc that causes an above average bump in performance with RISP compared to non-RISP. I personally believe that the bump had more to do with luck and that some regression to the mean is in order. We’ll see once the games start…
Also, in September, BTB posted a detailed analysis of the Twins RISP performance, finding that the performance was within the realm of random statistical fluctuation and that an emphasis for putting the ball in play does not correlate to a bump in RISP. Of Twins and RISP
Yeah
It’s just wishful thinking that the Twins approach leads to a higher average with RISP. I think we just have to face facts that we will not score as many runs this year. Pitching and defense will have to carry us as usual.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Something will have to cancel out a drop in RISP
I agree with Phoenix, 30-40 additional runs in 2008 due to RISP seems about right. If we lose those runs, we may have to make up for them elsewhere. Hopefully offensive improvements due to OF depth and younger players improving will be enough to cancel out a drop in RISP.
by Adam Peterson on Jan 20, 2009 8:09 AM EST up reply actions
We will pitch better
A full year of Liriano is a big upgrade over Hernandez. And the bullpen can’t be worse than it was last year. That should move toward the mean in the right direction.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Yes, Liriano is a big upgrade
but the bullpen could be worse this year. We had a 3.91 bullpen ERA last year, good for 10th in MLB, 6th in the AL. We haven’t added anyone (yet) to improve the pen, and there are a number of question marks:
Can Breslow repeat his 2008 performance?
Will Guerrier fall off a la Rincon?
Can Bonser make the transition to a full time reliever?
by Adam Peterson on Jan 21, 2009 8:28 AM EST up reply actions
Mijares - dead weight
We had him for a month last year; we’ll have him for a year. Having him all year will make a difference.
Plus, just getting rid of Rincon and Bass should make the bullpen better.
And I expect them to sign somebody in the next week that should help.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Good point
forgot about Mijares. Agree that he will make a difference.
Just like last year’s roster had less dead weight than 2007 (although Lamb, Everett and Monroe certainly turned out that way), 2009 appears to have less dead weight than 2008.
by Adam Peterson on Jan 21, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not so sure Its a Sure Bet that
The Bullpen Pitches Better... you say the bullpen can’t be worse then it was last year
I beg to differ, I personally wonder how can it not be worse?
Joe Nathan was unbelievably good last year, yes he blew a few saves but pitched a heck of a lot of innings for a closer and he’s getting up there in age, I don’t ever see him repeating what he did in 2006,07 or even 2008 again.
Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier should be better than they were in ’08 slightly but not by much
Whose to say Jose Mijares is going to be soo lights out, he may start the year off in AAA Rochester and if he struggled (likely with command) wouldn’t get the call until maybe bid summer
If We sign Eric Gagne I’d be about to Gag myself
and Craig Breslow can’t repeat what he did last year no way not happening.
So that leaves me awfully skeptical right now, I think This is one of our biggest problem areas.
Unless you’re so sure In Mijares being a Major factor and being so immediately and Have some kind of unyielding faith that Boof Bonser is going to be the “guy” in 2009 – I don’t see it at all.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 25, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
Good points, lots of guys could improve or decline
Nathan – He’s still very, very good, but he’s not the same pitcher that dominated in 2004-2006. Hitters are making better contact (19-21% LD the past three years, up from 12-16% the previous three years), he’s striking out fewer batters (9+ per nine, down from 11-12. We could see another marginal dropoff.
Crain/Guerrier – I agree, we should see improvement from both. Then again, Guerrier could turn into 2008 Rincon.
Mijares – I’m more optimistic than some. He pitched very well in September, and he’s been very good in winter ball. Yes, he could struggle with his command, but he’s at least as likely to repeat his solid 2008, IMO.
Boof – He pitched MUCH better than his 5.93 ERA shows. His 4.19 FIP was the lowest of his career, and I could see an improvement with him starting off the year in the bullpen.
Breslow – I don’t see him repeating 2008, but he’ll still be a good option.
In all, our bullpen may not be a strength, but it’s probably not a weakness next year either. I think we were a bit biased due to the leads we coughed up in Aug and Sept.
We saw huge difference in home versus road ERA, the question is why? Is this something that can be addressed for 2009?
by Adam Peterson on Jan 26, 2009 8:03 AM EST up reply actions
How can it not be worse?
1. No Juan Rincon: 24 Games, 28 IP, 6.11 ERA
3. No Brian Bass: 44 Games, 68 IP, 4.67 ERA (worse near the end)
4. Guerrier moves toward the mean: Second half (31 G, 25 IP, 8.88 ERA
5. Crain recovers from injury: Most guys take two years to recover from shoulder surgery. It was amazing he was even trying to pitch with that shoulder last year. It took Nathan three years to get back to the majors after the same surgery.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
SSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
RISP factors
the issue of the Twins’ weirdly high RISP numbers came up a lot this year, and I remember one post by Ubelmann making me very encouraged that the Twins might have some legitimate reasons to have higher than average RISP numbers.
He said the Twins, probably more than any other team, emphasize and practice situational hitting. If you really work on hitting to the right side of the infield when the first baseman is holding a guy on first and stuff like that, you should be able to sneak a few more balls through. If you work on that more, why shouldn’t you succeed a bit more?
There’s also the advantage of team speed, which prevents force outs and double plays and increases the odds of knocking a runner in. And base-stealers force pitchers to throw more fastballs, which should also help hitters hit with men on base.
So maybe there actually are some small-ball benefits to our lack of power?
I rmember that report
It’s basically what I had in mind when I posted similar thoughts. But it got shot down, mostly because I was unable to present it as well as Ubelmann.
If a team is not blessed with a lot of power, it is in its best interests to not try to hit for the fences as often. This is the benefit of small ball, it is easier to hit an opposite-field flare than a homer. So if all you’re trying to do is shoot it the other way with RISP, you’ll tend to be more effective than the guys who swing for the fences. The downside is, you have to string together a lot more hits to score with small ball.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Some of my more recent thoughts on performance with RISP...
…are here. Mainly, hitting with RISP and less than 2 outs is much different than hitting with RISP and 2 outs, and the league-wide averages bear that out. Namely:
.261/.324/.412, 3128 AB/team — 2008 AL, none on
.297/.362/.452, 749 AB/team — 2008 AL, RISP, <2 outs
.245/.350/.386, 659 AB/team — 2008 AL, RISP, 2 outs
Those are really pretty massive differences. The league batting average for RISP, <2 outs is nearly .300. That’s something that I don’t think a lot of people know.
w/r/t to the Twins—as a team, they hit .263 with no one on base last year, slightly above league average. With RISP/2, they hit .268, which is about 28 points better than league average in those situations. With RISP, <2 outs, they hit .337, which is about 40 points better than league average in those situations.
Now, if you look at Mark Teixeira—who is a very, very good hitter—over his career, he’s hit about 9 points better with RISP/2 than with no one on base, whereas the league hit about 16 points worse in that situation. So the 2008 Twins didn’t do quite as well as Teixeira’s career performance with RISP/2, but they were pretty close. I’m inclined to think that some of that was luck—as much as I like our guys, most of them aren’t nearly as good as Teixeira—but I think some of that was legitimate performance.
Looking at Teixeira in his career, he’s hit .351 with RISP and less than 2 outs and .282 with no one on base—a 69-point improvement. The league-wide improvement between those situations is about 36 points, so again we see Teixeira doing very well. The Twins as a team had a 76-point improvement, which again strikes me as unsustainable, but as an indication that they are probably better than league average at adjusting to that situation. (If you consider the main goal to just get a hit, rather than worrying about whether or not it is an XBH.)
My suspicion is that if you look just at ability to get hits—rather than an overall metric like GPA or EQA or OPS or whatever—over 4-5 years of individual data, you can probably see significant differences in a player’s ability to adapt to various situations like RISP/2 vs. no one on base. I suspect this has little to do with the size of the hitter’s testicles, and a lot to do with his ability to make contact.
Also...
Joe Mauer in his career has hit .352 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Even giving him credit for the fact that he’s a good hitter, and hits .302 with no one on base, that’s 50-point increase in batting average where the league as a whole usually hits 16 points worse.
It’s only 210 AB, so he’s probably not quite that good, but that’s still pretty amazing.
(Morneau has a 38-point increase from none on to RISP/2, which is nearly as impressive as Mauer’s increase.)
RISP
I think while it likely will not be as high I think the Twins should still have a very high RISP. We do not strikeout much as a team, especially if Gomez isn’t playing. We aren’t swinging for the fences. We just put the ball in play and with the speed we have putting the ball in play good things will happen. The BABIP is normally .3
One way to test this is the track Gardy's teams against the mean
It would be interesting if the last six teams tended to hit better than league average with RISP.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Gardy's teams
Under Gardy, the Twins mean BA with RISP is around .280, but it’s .292 since Mauer and Morneau became fixtures in the middle of the order.
08: .305
07: .276
06: .296
05: .271
04: .277
03: .268
02: .269
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Interesting to see who's driving the RISP...
Sorted by additional hits (players RISP AVG – overall AVG multiplied by total AB with RISP) shows that the following players contributed the most to our bump in RISP last year:
+8.7 Morneau: .348 RISP, .300 overall
+7.3 Cuddyer: .342 RISP, .249 overall
+7.3 Lamb: .356 RISP, .233 overall
+5.2 Buscher: ..386 RISP, .294 overall
+5.1 Gomez: .296 RISP, .258 overall
+4.7 Mauer: .362 RISP, .328 overall
+4.2 Span: .346 RISP, .294 overall
+3.7 Monroe: .283 RISP, .203 overall
+0.9 Everett: .237 RISP, .213 overall
—————————-
Negative contributors:
-0.2 Harris: .263 RISP, .265 overall
-0.7 Redmond: .265 RISP, .287 overall
-1.4 Tolbert: .211 RISP, .283 overall
-1.7 Punto: .265 RISP, .284 overall
-2.4 Young: .275 RISP, .290 overall
-2.8 Casilla: .253 RISP, .281 overall
-3.8 Kubel: .245 RISP, .272 overall
Fortunately, it looks like our best hitters managed to improve with RISP. Our top four batters (overall average) all hit for a higher average with RISP than overall. I’d have to take a look at Mauer and Morneau, see if they have consistently hit for higher averages in RISP than non-RISP situations.
by Adam Peterson on Jan 21, 2009 8:41 AM EST up reply actions
Specifically...
’06 and ’08, which parallels their best seasons.
Time to pony up the ching for Mauer? Yup.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
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