Twins sign Kubel to two-year contract with club option for 3rd

by nathaneide on Jan 20, 2009 3:53 PM EST Comment 40 comments

According to LaVelle E. Neal III, the Minnesota Twins have signed Jason Kubel to a two year deal, buying him out of arbitration. Not sure of terms yet, but Kubel will have to pass a physical. He'll take his physical at TwinsFest. All Twins players undergo physicals during this event. That's interesting, and I suppose it makes a lot of sense, since they're all in town and gives the team a better idea of what's going on to prep for spring training.

So, what does this mean for the outfield? Span,Gomez, Kubel, Cuddyer and Young are now all under contract. Will Kubel be the odds on favorite for DH, leaving the other 4 to play in the outfield? Who becomes the fourth outfielder? Does this push Young out of the way so they can move him?

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Is there any chance

That Gomez goes to AAA next year if nothing can get done with Young?

I don’t really see this signing as anything more than an avoidance of arbitration. Do we have figures yet?

by TMW on Jan 20, 2009 4:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This is great news...

…and at least the front office is taking care of business with their own players. I look for Guerrier to sign a one year deal prior to arbitration. Once they sign a set-up guy in the next week or two, I also look for them to add two or three years to Mauer’s contract before the end of spring training. If the Twins are fair with Mauer, I see him taking the next step and committing to be a Twin for another 2-3 years after this contract.

by roger13 on Jan 20, 2009 4:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Club option for his first FA year, brilliant

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 20, 2009 5:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Long time in the works

I like that they put an option year in there for his first year of free agency.

As to your questions on the outfield, I don’t expect anything to happen trade-wise. Whom they decide to bring north is an interesting question. See Jesse’s thread on this topic for a lot of discussion. It’s very possible they send either Young or Gomez down to conserve on service time. I’ve heard differing reports on which one. Roger has quoted an unnamed executive who pegged Gomez as the likely guy. Gardy would seem to favor a Span-Gomez-Cuddyer outfield, leaving Young the odd man out. I don’t think it’ll be settled until late in spring training.

Whatever outfield we have, Kubel is in line to be the everyday DH with occasional days off against left-handed pitching, not a platoon DH player.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 20, 2009 5:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking about your outfield

in a post over at Pinstripe Alley today. What are the odds you move one of these guys? Who’s your pick to ship?

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Jan 20, 2009 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It would be Young

But with so many Type A free agents on the sidelines, the chances of getting fair value for an outfielder at this point doesn’t look likely to happen.

by TMW on Jan 20, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yound Down

Send Young down? THat would be bad, he’s too much of a prima donna to accept it.

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 20, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That and....

Gomez can’t hit at this level yet and Young can.

by TMW on Jan 20, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps, but

Gomez can field at this level, and Young can’t.

To be even more precise, Gomez can field among the very best CFs at this level right now and Young can’t. Young also can’t hit any where near the best corner OFs at this level right now.

by DK on Jan 20, 2009 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

…so far, “Skates” has been one laughable left-fielder. Any ball out there is an adventure in the making. It’s like tossing a ball to a dog who is paying attention sometimes and licking his privates sometimes. You never really know when he’s going to go get it and when he’s just going to sit there.

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on Jan 20, 2009 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Remember when we traded

for young and people were saying he could spot start in CF that was fun.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Jan 21, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Remember that?

That was awesome.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 21, 2009 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah that was rediculous

Let’s put one of the worst corner outfielders in the league in center. It sounds bad, but I have to think that people thought because he was young (no pun intended) and black, that he could play center. Wow was that wrong.

by lookatthosetwins on Jan 22, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He did

play center (horrifically: -40.7 UZR/150) a bit for the Rays in 07.

by DK on Jan 22, 2009 10:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gomez can be replaced by Span

And they’d still have a plus defender in centerfield. Then they’d have 3 quality hitters in the outfield as well. I’m not going to defend Delmon’s fielding, but if Punto is going to be starting at SS I’d rather not have an additional black hole in the lineup if I had the choice.

by TMW on Jan 21, 2009 10:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Black hole

Gomez’s 2008 numbers in the nine hole: .286 /.328 /.400 /.728

I think you can expect some improvement considering he’s just 23 years old entering his second full season of major league ball.

The question is, are the Twins a better team with Span-Gomez-Cuddyer or Young-Span-Cuddyer, all things considered? Those who value defense more than offense claim the former. Those who value offense more than defense claim the latter. There are good arguments for both. But with a fly ball staff, I think there are better arguments for favoring defense over offense.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 21, 2009 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I basically agree

…but to me it’s not so much a difference of valuing offense or defense more, but rather that Young is just not a good enough hitter to outweigh the overall composite value that Gomez playing center provides.

Plus, like I said in the other thread, if one really wants to have both Young and Cuddyer in the field, one pretty much must put Gomez in center. There’s no question about that in my mind. Span is a good defensive corner outfielder, but he hasn’t shown (yet) to be more than a competent center fielder, and Gomez is one of the best there is.

by DK on Jan 21, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

A Young-Span-Cuddyer outfield would be the worst fielding outfield this team has had since Cordova-Backer-Lawton. And we know how that season turned out. That team failed to win 80 games despite the fact that Chuck Knoblauch scored 140 runs.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 21, 2009 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Span CF

Is Span really that big of a drop-off? I’m surprised to hear so many people so down on his fielding. I know Gomez is an elite talent defensively. But Span is pretty fast himself. My impression is he was always seen as a fine CF, and I don’t have any reason to question that. His corner outfield play was just because center was occupied; CF is his position. He doesn’t seem to have enough power for a corner outfielder, but at CF he can use his speed, and his hitting becomes a plus for the position. If he’s really not a good center-fielder, I think that’s a big problem. But this doubt about his fielding is out of the blue, for me. So I still think he would hold the fort just fine if Gomez went down for a while to prolong his service time — oops, I mean to work on his hitting.

by by jiminy on Jan 21, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Span is average

Maybe slightly above. He can makeup ground with his legs, but his jumps and routes are not in the same class as Gomez. Problem is, when you’re between Young and Cuddyer, slightly above average won’t cut it.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 21, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

And the cost savings won’t be that great after the minor league umpire’s union tries to make the Twins to chip in for body armor.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jan 21, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kubel

What kind of money is Kubel making now?
Its good to hold on to Kuble, I’m sure he’ll get better. I just hope he can start protecting Morneau!

by ianmader on Jan 20, 2009 10:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully

The front office has a deal in mind, because five starting outfielders on a limited budget isn’t the best way to spend your assets. Either way, I do like the Kubel signing—he’s slowly but surely becoming our terribly needed second power threat.

by ericj69 on Jan 21, 2009 3:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

last year was his make or break year

this year he is going to be even better

TB Rays in 09!!!

by RaysOfHope on Jan 22, 2009 11:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think so too

he may still end up with less than half of the AB against LHP, but I think Kubel ends up with 25-30 HR and a healthy OPS increase into the .840 range. The real question (IMO) is whether Cuddyer or Young produce enough from the RH side to sit between Mauer-Morneau and Kubel…

by Adam Peterson on Jan 23, 2009 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cuddyer

Can Cuddyer be the extra base machine he was in 2006? In 550 at-bats, he produced 70 extra base hits (.504 SLG). In 2005 he had 40 XBH in 450 at bats, and in 2007 he had 49 in 550. It seems to me that 1 out of every 10 at bats is a safer bet, but if he could find whatever stroke he had in 2006, our lineup becomes pretty intimidating.

To provide some comparison, Morneau puts up about 70 XBH in 600 at bats per year, and Mauer produces about 45 in 450 at bats. I’ve taken averages of the last couple of years, and I realize that not all XBH are created equal, but I think we are too quick to discount the value of Cuddyer. Doubles aren’t home runs, but if someone was on-base they score, and who ever comes up next gets an RBI opportunity. Cuddyer basically produces those opportunities at the same rate as Mauer and Morneau. The price we pay is that he is 30-40 points behind Morneau in OBP and 60-70 behind Mauer. That’s important, for sure, but they are our MVP players, and Cuddyer has a pretty reasonable 3 year contract at $8m per year.

Even if Cuddyer only regained his 2005/2007 form, that is probably enough to provide some protection for the LH bats. In 2007 he had a .356 OBP to go with the XBH, which aint too shabby.

by snolls on Jan 24, 2009 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

To me, Cuddyer is the lynch pin. If he can return to his 2006 form, this team will soar. If he hits like last year, Delmon (and Crede?) will have to step up to provide that protection. I think this is why the Twins were reluctant to deal Delmon. They need him to stand up if Cuddyer falls down.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 24, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If we get a full year out of Cuddyer

I think his numbers will turn out just fine, and he’ll be good sitting in the #5 slot. If he’s injured (again), that’s when Delmon and others will have to step up.

Another aspect of Cuddyer bouncing back – with him hitting well out of the #5 slot, that moves Delmon to the #7 slot (when Kubel and Cuddyer are playing), taking some of the pressure off him. We could see improvement from Delmon as a result.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 24, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but

I really hope we don’t see Kubel, Delmon, and Cuddyer all playing at the same time very often. I wonder who would bat leadoff in that scenario…or more like, who should bat leadoff? Since Span should be on the bench if both Delmon and Cuddyer are in the field…would you leadoff Gomez? Casilla? Punto? Yikes.

by DK on Jan 24, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Span

Gomez would be on the bench when they play Delmon, Cuddy and Kubes.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 24, 2009 11:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think somebody smart once said this

“A Young-Span-Cuddyer outfield would be the worst fielding outfield this team has had since Cordova-Backer-Lawton.”

by DK on Jan 25, 2009 2:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But

I think we’ve also all argued that Span is better than Gomez. The question is whether Gomez should play over Delmon.

by snolls on Jan 25, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

But it’s not just a positional decision, it’s a whole outfield decision. The argument is, Cuddyer and Young are so weak on the corners, the center field position needs to be at the elite level, not just above average. A Young-Span-Cuddyer outfield would be the worst defensive outfield the team has had since Cordova-Becker-Lawton. Recall, that team’s lead-off hitter scored 140 runs, yet the team failed to win 80 games.

Young-Gomez-Cuddyer is still not up to the Twins standards in the days when Hunter and Jones shared the outfield. But it wouldn’t be horrible.

A Span-Gomez-Cuddyer outfield would be up to the standards that helped this team win division titles with a fly-ball staff when the offensive numbers did not suggest 90-win team. Even offensively, Span is better than Young, so I don’t think you play Young if you settle on Gomez in center, which is your point, I guess.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 25, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Load up with RH hitters

I could see us with a Young-Gomez-Cuddyer OF against a really tough lefty. Leadoff would be an issue, but we’d have to resolve it any time Span sits. In this situation, I’d probably bat Casilla leadoff and move Mauer up to 2nd.

1. Casilla 2B
2. Mauer C
3. Cuddyer RF
4. Morneau 1B
5. Young LF
6. Kubel DH
7. Harris 3B
8. Punto SS
9. Gomez SS

by Adam Peterson on Jan 25, 2009 8:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I would think tough lefties are a situation where using Young/Gomez/Cuddyer makes offensive sense (although I still believe using Gomez makes the most defensive sense if Young/Cuddyer are in the corners). However, I would think Kubel is as likely as Span to be sitting against those kind of pitchers.

Really, to me it comes down to wanting to see Span, Kubel, and Gomez play as much as possible…except the platoon splits don’t work out easily, since the best two hitters are both lefties, and there’s no reason to platoon Cuddyer and Young with each other. It’s kind of a quandary.

by DK on Jan 25, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is...

…Young is too valuable to be a right-handed platoon player. My sense is the Twins could get more value for him if he’s traded than relegated to a platoon role.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 25, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

The market for corner outfielders this offseason has not been very good for sellers. Which is kind of too bad, because this year was probably the last chance the Twins could try to sell anyone else on Delmon’s “#1 prospect potential” (although maybe the fact that he hasn’t been traded suggests no one else buys into that “potential” anymore either).

by DK on Jan 25, 2009 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

…He was second in rookie-of-the-year voting two years ago after having one of the best minor league careers in recent memory and after being drafted number 1 overall.

His only real career hiccup was the first couple of months last year, after which he hit over .300 with an OPS over .800. It’s the market. When Bobby Abreau is still out of a job, it tells you where the market is at for corner outfielders.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 25, 2009 10:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Or

We’re talking about a corner outfielder (who can’t play corner outfield defense competently) with 1400 major league plate appearances and an OPS+ of 98 who has next-to-zero plate discipline and a hitting style that skews heavily towards producing ground balls. It’s not surprising to still see so many Twins fans drinking the Delmon kool-aid, but at this point his major league performance is large enough to render his draft position and minor league career much less meaningful (and his position in ROY-voting was never meanginful). So, sure, when Abreu doesn’t have a job, certainly it’s a little reassuring to see that baseball executives have no interest in a rose that’s lost its bloom in Delmon, who is considerably less valuable than Abreu.

by DK on Jan 26, 2009 1:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think we'll see any strict platoons in the OF/DH

We have two lefties and three righties for four positions. I still think that if everyone stays healthy (a big if), all five can have over 500 PA, Span getting the most.

As for Delmon’s value, I think we have shopped him and found his value is not where it needs to be for a trade to make sense. We should see what happens this year, hopefully he will continue the 800+ OPS he showed the last 2/3 of the year.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 26, 2009 7:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs