Can Boof Bonser Bounce Back In 2009?

by Jesse on Jan 29, 2009 8:59 PM EST in By the Numbers

Brobably. I mean probably.

Intensive studies have shown that Boof Bonser fans fall into one of two, and only two, categories. Either you're the fan who...

A) believes that Bonser has talent but hasn't lived up to his billing (and, admit it, at times is more than happy to entertain thoughts of him not being on the roster),

or you're the fan who...

B) believes Bonser has under-performed, but has the stuff/peripherals/cajones to turn himself into a respectable pitcher.

I can't blame you for belonging to either group. Just between you and me, I can tell you that depending on the day, I've spent time in both camps. But no matter which band of Boof brothers we belong to, we all want to know one thing: will we be able to count on him this summer?

We know what he's capable of. He has that decent fastball that mixes well with what can be a very tight breaking ball, but that doesn't seem to keep him from getting hit or allowing runs. The numbers seem to support this, as it's easy to separate the "not as bad as they seem" numbers from the "oh, that's why he made me tear my clothes off in frustration" numbers.

ERA: 5.93 * FIP: 4.26 * xFIP: 4.31

It will always be hard to defend a pitcher who struggled to force his ERA under six until the waning days of the season, but what these numbers tell us is that Bonser's defense sort of screwed him. Not just in the it-happens-in-the-course-of-the-game screwing, but a significant it's-almost-like-we-want-to-do-this screwing. Both his FIP and xFIP are the lowest of Bonser's three-year career, and while neither of them is impressive, they support the theory that Boof was quite a bit better than what the defense told us he was.

LOB%: 57.9

This is hideous. League average is usually right around 70%, and if you can strand more than 80% of your base runners, you're doing something right. But how much of this was Bonser's fault? We already know the defense wasn't exactly doing him any favors. 2007 wasn't pretty either, but he was still stranding nearly 70% of his base runners. Glance at this article by Dave Studeman (from over three years ago, but it's a pretty timeless idea) for more on this stat, and note that for an xFIP of 4.31, Bonser's LOB% still should have been over 70%.

K/9: 7.38 * BB/9: 2.74 * HR/9: 1.22

All three of these are improvements from 2007, and the home runs per nine is the lowest of Bonser's career. Boof can strike guys out, doesn't walk an unacceptable number of hitters, and while that home run rate isn't the best, we have to remember that Bonser isn't exactly a ground-ball pitcher. Fly balls turn into homers, at an alarmingly higher rate than ground balls. Reassuringly, his HR/FB ratio (12.1% according to THT, 10.9% according to Fangraphs) stands right around league average. Strikeouts, walks and home runs are "The Three True Outcomes" for a pitcher, and none of these numbers indict Boof Bonser as a pitcher who sucks.

LD%: 20.4 * GB%: 40.7 * FB%: 38.9

This is the one area where there was noticable change that wasn't a move in the right direction for Bonser. His line drive percentage jumped more than three percent from 2007, which meant that hitters were making better contact and hitting the ball harder off of him more often. League average is usually somewhere between 18% and 20%, meaning he wasn't necessarily awfully predictable, but it might mean that in certain situations his pitches were easier to see. Of course, if balls are being hit harder, it's usually more difficult for your defense to convert those batted balls into outs.

Boof's baseball future is far from set in stone. He's a durable arm whose traditional numbers aren't doing him any favors, but the talent is still there. While he doesn't look like he could turn into a star in this league, 2008 will only be his age-27 campaign, and if the peripherals we've discussed can hold up he should be well suited to find a job in the majors well into his 30's. Bonser profiles as one of those guys who has a couple of good years, a couple of bad years and a lot of average ones in between over the course of his career, and after what we've seen these last two seasons, maybe 2009 can be one of those seasons where he steps it up. There's always room for change, and baseball can be entirely unpredictable sometimes.

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Comments

I think he can.

He has the stuff without a doubt. His curve and his heater can really help him. If he can adjust to coming in from the bullpen rather than starting, I think he could be the upgrade the team needs.

by Twins Territory on Jan 29, 2009 9:12 PM EST reply actions

I like him

It’s clear they will go with him in the pen, which is OK with me, but if you told me: we’ll give Bonser and Perkins each 33 starts—-who will be better? I’d pick Bonser.

by Eric in Madison on Jan 29, 2009 9:30 PM EST reply actions

I'd have to agree

Bonser very well may do better than Perkins over 33 starts. I think Boof can be successful starting off in the pen. In any case, if Perkins fails, Boof or Humber (or one of the minor leaguers) is around to fill in as the #5.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 31, 2009 8:32 AM EST up reply actions

How about Liriano? That is who I would be worried about. Being a KC fan I have seen more than a bit of both of them, and believe me, I know what it felt like to see Santana leave town and then have a handful of stud prospects wither get injured or simply under perform.

To me, Minnesota is the model small market ball club, so each year I watch with great interest and hope that one day the Royals can become a similar type of organization.

Webmaster – If you are interested in exchanging links please visit the Fantasy Big Leagues website and click “Baseball Link Exchange”

by FantasyBigLeagues on Jan 29, 2009 9:31 PM EST reply actions

What?

by lookatthosetwins on Jan 30, 2009 1:44 AM EST up reply actions

Ok I read this again, and still... What?

by lookatthosetwins on Jan 30, 2009 1:45 AM EST up reply actions

Ok

So if you wanted “webmaster” to exchange links with you… Couldn’t you have spent 10 minutes to try to think of something intelligent to say? But who am I to criticize, you obviously have seen a lot of boof and liriano, being a Royals fan and all. And you’ve seen a lot of stud prospects wither get injured or simply under perfom. I mean, who hasn’t?

by lookatthosetwins on Jan 30, 2009 1:54 AM EST up reply actions

haha

Nice try. thanks for the laugh.

by .mnqwerd on Jan 30, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

I like this article...

…because it really captures the Boof enigma.

And can’t you just see a crappy, Uwe Boll-directed movie with that title? “JEAN-CLAUDE VAN DAMME. JENNY MCCARTHY. WHEN THEY DON’T UNDERSTAND WHAT’S HAPPENING… THEY’LL HAVE TO LEARN TO BELIEVE IN EACH OTHER. EVEN AS THEY FACE…. THE BOOF ENIGMA.”

by Jon Marthaler on Jan 29, 2009 11:45 PM EST reply actions

I am pryaing but...

Boof is who he is..nothing more and nothing MORE. He is Joe May with jowls IMHO.

"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Jan 30, 2009 2:42 AM EST reply actions

Joe Mays...

…never hit 95 on the radar gun or had a curveball of any kind. They are not at all similar pitchers.The best recent comparison I can think of is LaTroy Hawkins: Great stuff, but he could never put it together as a starter. So they converted him into a reliever and he thrived (outside of the closer role) because he could really let loose with every pitch and he didn’t need to conserve his energy (which sapped his stuff).

If you want evidence that Boof is ready to be another LaTroy Hawkins, consider the last two months of 2008, after he had adjusted to the pen and he had a FIP in the mid 3s.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 30, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions

I was referring actually to the mentality aspect not to the physical ability aspect, but...

LaTroy is also a good example—maybe even better.

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Jan 31, 2009 1:56 AM EST up reply actions

and perhaps he can overcome this as a reliever but I have doubts he can do it consistently.

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Jan 31, 2009 1:58 AM EST up reply actions

I've been

I’ve been one of the bullish supporters of Boof around here for awhile, especially before this season. I’ve described him as a John Lacky-lite, a guy who could turn out between Lackey and Ted Lilly (same kind of profile, to me, larger guy, fastball changeup, good K rate, marginal walk, highr HR rate, which way would he go?)

But it hasn’t worked out for Boof yet. Yeah, his D probably hurt him. I keep saying “but he won the International League Strikeout Crown!” That used to be a year ago, then it was two years ago. Now, it’s almost 4 years ago that that happened. As much as I’ve supported Boof, loved to see how he works very hard to improve himself in the offseason (last year lost all that weight, this year gained a bunch of strength and supposedly added velocity) at some point he has to produce, and that’s the only way it can be.

Realistically, his chances of starting for this team aren’t very good, really ever again, unless it’s an emergency start. But he could emerge in the pen. He has the kind of stuff that makes a transition possible.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 30, 2009 3:50 AM EST reply actions

I think

we should try to move him to the back of the bullpen and have be a setup guy. He has always had good stuff but the problem has always been the second or third time thru the lineup. I think he could become an effective 7th inning guy like guerrier was before neshek got hurt

by duckman86 on Jan 30, 2009 4:13 AM EST reply actions

Poor Boof

He needs an opportunity to start to see if he can shine. DOubt that it will happen with the Twins.

He’s out of options, so the Twins have to make room for him or move him. Teams know this, so most will sit and watch from the sidelines. If he can go somewhere, he might shine enough to make him arbitration worthy, otherwise, whoever signs him will cut him loose at the end of the 2009 season rather than go to arbitration. You don’t need to get into paying millions to a good pitcher. (Which is also something the Twins will face next season with Perkins, for example…and Guerrier this year — who the Twins, so far, dont seem eager to sign to a multi-year contract considering the studs coming up in the minors).

Boof is in a particular position. He has missed a chance to make some big money in his arbitration years leading to free-agency and now needs a team that will give him a chance…but looking at his overall record, is it much different than ANY team giving a prospect a chance (i.e. Twins Willie Eyre, Brian Bass) — someone they developed.

He will still find work as long as his arm doesn’t fall off, but may eventually be one of those Pat Mahomes/Willie Banks-type guys who can hang around for anotehr decade looking for that minimum major league salary.

Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!

by rosterman on Jan 30, 2009 11:24 AM EST reply actions

He should definitely get a shot

We know the defense was down, especially in the first half of the season when Boof was struggling in the rotation. In addition, sharp increases in LD% can sometimes just be due to bad luck — hitters just happen to make better contact in a given year.

His fielding-independent numbers just don’t suggest a guy who suddenly ‘lost it’ in 2008, and really aren’t that much different from Slowey’s or Blackburn’s numbers, as far as I can tell. If his LD% shoots up higher in 2009 or his K% drops significantly, then maybe there’s a case for making him a permanent middle reliever. Otherwise I think it just shows that there are way fewer jobs in the major leagues than guys who, if given a shot, are capable of doing those jobs.

by dwintheiser on Jan 30, 2009 8:06 PM EST reply actions

promising reliever

I remember when he came over in the trade, the rep on him was he would never be dominant because he only had two good pitches. Then, added to that, was a stamina issue—he couldn’t seem to go more than five innings. Neither of these issues is nearly as much of a problem as a reliever.

People seem disappointed he didn’t maintain the success of his 2006 season. But that should not be the benchmark. In that year, he far exceeded expectations. He quickly went from a second-tier prospect to a sure-thing starter, for no solid reason. Now people are disappointed he’s not that. But I’m not that disappointed.

He was a good prospect who can strike people out — and he still is. He’s got a lot of potential as a reliever, and there’s no real reason to think he won’t succeed at that.

A lot of teams would love to have a guy like that: a promising reliever, who could quickly transition to a starter if you’re suddenly short one of those.

There is no way the Twins will cut him loose after spring training. He’d have to really bomb out, and pitch worse than he ever has in his career. As Jesse showed, he didn’t even suck that much last year, the low point of his career.

I think it’s weird the Twins went to all the bother of courting Gagne, only to drop it when he agreed to their demands (if Joe C is to be believed). I don’t know what Gagne has left; maybe he’s done, maybe he’s on the upswing from injury rehab. But if I had to guess who will have a better year next year, I’m not sure I wouldn’t pick Bonser. And I’d certainly rather see him out there in the 8th inning than Ayala.

If Bonser pitches okay, and Humber does too, it will be interesting to see what they do. Is there room for both of them?

by by jiminy on Jan 30, 2009 10:54 PM EST reply actions