Minnesota Twins Offensive Projections, 2009

by Jesse on Jan 5, 2009 9:09 PM EST in By the Numbers Comment 21 comments

As always, these could change if something major happens.

Catchers

Name	Games	AB	Hits	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	Avg	Obp	Slg	SB
Joe Mauer	142	530	176	36	4	10	82	53	.332	.422	.468	4
Mike Redmond	43	139	40	7	0	1	7	12	.288	.322	.360	0

One thing I'm trying to temper this year in my projections are my power expectations. Specifically, home runs. Since I've been doing this I've tended to be a bit optimistic in regards to home run totals, mainly from guys who I've thought were capable of putting a few more out of the park. I had to do this with Joe Mauer, as I initially ran his numbers with 13 home runs, but it just blows his slugging percentage up too far. Joe did slug .507 in '06, but he hasn't been close to that since, and it's a bit more realistic to be incrimental about his increases in this area. Otherwise, in regards to Mauer and Mike Redmond, I'm not taking too many chances one way or the other. I still expect Mauer to rack up a few doubles, take a lot of walks and have excellent control over his bat, and I still expect Redmond to be a good contact hitter.

Infielders

Name	Games	AB	Hits	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	Avg	Obp	Slg	SB
Justin Morneau	158	600	174	38	4	29	67	87	.290	.361	.512	1
Alexi Casilla	128	431	119	20	2	4	35	51	.276	.331	.360	15
Nick Punto	130	429	112	21	3	1	40	64	.261	.324	.333	12
Brian Buscher	96	306	86	15	0	7	27	45	.281	.339	.402	1
Brendan Harris	112	381	104	25	3	7	36	90	.273	.336	.410	2
Matt Tolbert	51	112	29	8	2	2	9	13	.259	.314	.420	8
Matt Macri	44	101	28	5	0	3	6	17	.277	.318	.416	3

Offensively, it's Justin Morneau in the infield and nobody else. I'm looking for a mild regression from Alexi Casilla this season as he works to adjust to the adjustments that have been made to him, but honestly there aren't any real threats at the plate for Minnesota in this group...apart from, of course, that massive Canadian. I think you'll find most of these guys won't embarrass themselves; they're not horrible. But none of them are going to bank the offense the runs they'll desperately need in order to contend with Chicago and Cleveland next summer. That charge will be laid heavily on a largely inexperienced outfield.

Otherwise, in terms of playing time, most of these guys are splitting time, in some form or another, with someone else. Nick Punto, Brendan Harris and Matt Tolbert at short; Brian Buscher, Matt Macri, Harris and Tolbert at third; Casilla, Punto and Tolbert at second. It's going to be hard to keep track of.

Outfield

Name	Games	AB	Hits	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	Avg	Obp	Slg	SB
Michael Cuddyer	138	511	137	26	3	15	54	69	.268	.338	.419	4
Carlos Gomez	119	402	106	21	5	6	27	98	.264	.310	.386	27
Jason Kubel	150	525	146	26	3	23	55	97	.278	.347	.471	0
Denard Span	122	427	123	24	8	6	64	81	.288	.381	.424	21
Delmon Young	121	423	126	22	2	12	29	92	.298	.343	.444	11

Right now the whole outfield situation is hard to predict, and so basically I've straddled the line and assumed that Ron Gardenhire will go through some semblance of a rotation. While Gardenhire is likely to lean on Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel as the "veterans" of the outfield, Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and Delmon Young are three talented but inexperienced players. It would be comforting in some ways to believe that a hard line would be taken one way or another between who's a starter and who's a backup, but knowing how Gardenhire likes to mix up playing time, and particularly understanding that none of these guys will allowed to rot on the bench (and knowing Gomez will probably not be sent to Rochester), this is the best I could come up with.

At some point this summer, I believe that a couple of these guys will play themselves into a position where they'll be reigning in a majority of playing time, and one or two of the others will be relegated to less prominent roles. But for now, I'll stick with this.

As things sit today, I expect the Twins to be competetive in 2009 offensively, although they'll be far from dangerous. They still lack supplemental hitters to back up what could be a notorious 1-5, and the left side of the infield will still be hoping to break even between offensive production and defensive prevention, but there's also a lot of young talent there that could blossom anytime.

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Comments

Makes sense to me

Overall it makes sense to me. I certainly don’t think you’ve been unrealistically optimistic.

However, my thoughts:
I’m hopeful that Casilla can outperform these projections. He played really well early in the year, and based on his winter league play, I’m hopeful that his decline was injury related. We will see.
I’m not very confident, but I think that Harris is a good candidate for a pleasant surprise this year. In a platoon role, I think there is a chance his power will impress. He demonstrated a pretty solid bat in Tampa.
Lastly, if someone wehere to really come through, it would be Cuddyer. With his injuries, it might not be realistic to project much higher, but you have to think it is possible for him to come in closer to his 2006 numbers. If we got that lucky, it would make a huge difference in our lineup. This could be the key to us competing.

The one I find optimistic is Span. He had a great year last year, and it really seemed like his approach at the plate, as opposed to luck, was responsible for his success. Still, an OBP of .382 is really good. There were only about 20-25 players in all of baseball who managed that over 300+ at bats in 2008. I see more regression to the mean. I would still be happy with something more like .360.

by snolls on Jan 5, 2009 11:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gomez

I would expect to see Gomez in fewer games if he has a .696 OPS after 250-300 AB maybe even the minors. But these projections look good. I too have a problem with awarding extra power when I look at what I expect the offense to do next year.

by doofus on Jan 5, 2009 11:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Does Gomez have any options left though?

by Phenom507 on Jan 6, 2009 1:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

D-Fence

Gomez didn’t get sent down last year despite similar numbers, and Gardy appears enamored enough with his defense (justifiably, I think) that he will probably be committed to making him the everyday CF unless the bottom completely falls out of his offense (like ‘07 Punto, not ’08 Gomez). I think Gardy is okay with having a 700 OPS-ish drag on the lineup if it’s in the #9 hole, as long as he plays good defense – after all, they did start last year with Adam Everett as the starting shortstop.

Phenom, there was lots of discussion about whether he should’ve started last year in the minors or been sent down at some point, so there is at least some belief throughout the blogosphere that he has options left (I don’t know where to find that information).

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jan 6, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gomez has three options left

Because he was rushed to the Mets, he never used his options.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 6, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gomez' Wins Above Replacement

I don’t expect Gomez to be sent down either, as long as he keeps up his great defense. Last year, he had a wOBA of .294 (657 OPS). If he improves incrementally to .310 wOBA (690 OPS) while maintaining a 17 UZR in CF, Gomez projects as a +2.3 WAR player, second only to Mauer (6.1) and Morneau (+2.7).

I’m actually surprised that Morneau and Gomez come so close, but this is because position adjustments are used, and there’s a built-in 15 run / 1.5 WAR gap between any 1B and CF.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 6, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff

I agree with most, but a few disagreements and notes:

- I recommend that you incorporate wOBA into your projections. Makes it very easy to project total runs scored.
- I don’t think Casilla regresses this year. I think the decline was more injury related as well. I’m guessing .285 / .345 / .385 with about 20 SB.
- I think Harris ends up with numbers closer to 2007 (.286/.343/.434) than 2008. Your line seems sensible, perhaps a 10 point jump in AVG/OBP. Once we moved Harris away from 2B, he improved offensively. He’ll get most of the 3B AB by the end of the year.
- I see Buscher’s ISO improving by 20+ points and BABIP decreasing by a similar amount (he was lucky last year). Defense will again put him in Gardy’s doghouse.
- Span gets the most AB among the four OF. Your projected line makes sense, but he’ll play 150 games and get over 600 PA batting leadoff.
- I think Delmon ends up with more HR, between 15 and 20. Mauer-Cuddyer-Morneau-Young-Kubel ends up being a solid 3-7 L-R-L-R-L heart of the order. Cuddyer, Gomez and Young will each play probably 3 out of every 4 games, sitting against RHP. Span sits only against the toughest LHP.

Again, good stuff. No major disagreements with your projections.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 6, 2009 8:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yep

Generally this looks reasonable. Couple of notes:

1. I am expecting Gomez to be somewhat better than your line, and Span to be somewhat worse.

2. I know it’s impossible to do, but I always feel the need to point out that you don’t assume any injuries, where someone misses all or most of the season.

3. Finally, this is not a good offense. They were incredibly lucky last year, as we all know; they won’t be again.

by Eric in Madison on Jan 6, 2009 11:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

And another thing

Burrell to TB for 2/16. Twins could have done this, which would have improved the offense, and freed them up to trade Kubel.

The lack of creativity this off-season has been appalling.

by Eric in Madison on Jan 6, 2009 11:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

If those outfield predictions were predictable, why play Gomex so much for basically the same stats (except for average) as Span. Would we see a better jump for Young (toward 20 homers) if Gomez was out-of-the-mix? I think Cuddyer will be a bit higher in the homer category, too.

If Harris and Buscher would combine for those stats, more power to the Twins for not doing anything with third base. Still think Harris has more punch than he showed with year-one with the Twins. Maybe his downfall in 2008 was being the starting second baseman, than not being the starting second baseman, and not having a real role with the Twins.

Casilla, healed from his hand energy, should be fabuolous as the 2nd hitter.

Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!

by rosterman on Jan 6, 2009 11:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gomez and Span

why play Gomex so much for basically the same stats (except for average) as Span.

Gomez is the better fielder.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 6, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and

we have a flyball tendency having pitching staff.

Gomez can sit on the days Blackburn pitches as far as OF rotation is concerned.

by doofus on Jan 6, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent projections...

…Jesse. A few comments I have, none of which are major. First, I don’t see Matt Macri getting much playing time in Minnesota this year and I really don’t see him hitting better than Matt Tolbert. Tolbert proved last year that he is a fine hitter and I expect we will see him with more playing time and an average at least as high as you had for Macri. Also, expect to see Span with a better average as his patience isn’t something that will go into a slump. Also, I beleive that this will finally be the break-out year for Kubel and he will hit everything you show except with an average over .300.

by roger13 on Jan 6, 2009 4:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

One more item...

…I don’t see Cuddyer getting over 500 at bats. He hasn’t stayed healthy now for several years. I don’t see this year as being any different. Take away 100-150 Cuddyer at bats and split them between Span (+100) and another 25 or so for Gomez and Young. With Span being the lead-off hitter, he isn’t going to sit a lot….you know the manager doesn’t like to change his lead-off hitter!

by roger13 on Jan 6, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tolbert

Tolbert proved last year that he is a fine hitter

Not sure how 113 AB last year really proves this. I’m not convinced Tolbert will even perform as well as projected above.

by serq on Jan 7, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He won't

In particular, that .420 SLG is high. His minor league high was .427. His minor league average was .400. It’s typically tougher to hit for power in the majors. I wouldn’t be surprised if his SLG is comparable in 2009 as 2008 (.398). But I would project something slightly lower, say .390.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 7, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Correction

last year’s SLG was .389, non .398. So perhaps .390 is about right.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 7, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Casilla

I think you’re slighting Casilla’s ability to walk as he walked 31 times in 98 games last year. I’m on board with everything else though. Good projections.

by TMW on Jan 6, 2009 4:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

About the same rate

Jesse’s only projecting about 50 more AB for Casilla, despite the 30 extra games, so the projection actually keeps his walk rate pretty much constant from last year. Jesse’s predicting .276/.331 BA/OBP, and his actual numbers last year were .281/.333.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jan 7, 2009 9:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Our offense is good - What's the worry?

I’m not sure where this irrational fear about our ability to score runs is coming from, other than a reflection of the Twins’ traditional inability to score runs.

Consider:
-We led the AL Central in offense last year.
-We were third overall (out of 14) in the AL in runs scored.
-We were third in the AL in BA last year.
-We were 5th in OBP.
-We were 2nd in total hits.
-And we were 4th in total ABs.

How is our offense significantly changing for the worse this year? Are Mike Lamb and Adam Everett sneaking onto the field? Even a modest regression from the Punto/Harris/Casilla/Buscher group from their numbers last year is equalized by not having the black hole Lamb and Everett represented.

I think, because we have gone for so long without great power hitters (and it seems like the ChiSox find ’em on trees), that we get overly fixated on home run totals. The ChiSox led the AL in homers and finished behind us in scoring for the year (we were last in homers). Homers do not, in and of themselves, correlate to better offensive production.

I would love to see better OBP guys, as I think this would work to the Twins’ advantages more: speed and defense. Tire opposing pitchers out, steal bases, keep our pitchers fresh.

Speaking of pitchers, I think they might help our offense this year as well. We led the AL in innings pitched last year, and were second in hits given up. I think it is reasonable to assume that we will improve on both of these next year, which should allow our offense to play looser which hopefully will mean better.

What say you Twins Nation?

by biggity2bit on Jan 7, 2009 4:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Batting average with RISP

is the biggest area where I see us losing runs compared to 2008. Hopefully, young guys getting a bit better will be enough to cancel out a likely regression in RISP, but we’ll have to see.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 7, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs