I just don’t think Detroit has nearly enough pitching to compete for the division. I was only able to come up with 310 non-replacement IP from their bullpen. Chances are, of the 195 innings I’ve allocated to “Replacement RP” at a 4.70 ERA, those innings may actually come in below replacement, further hurting the Tigers. I am also skeptical of their Edwin Jackson trade, he could very well go above 5.00 again, and who knows what they will get out of Dontrelle. Then again, if their hitters stay healthy (at least healthier than 2008), they may not need much pitching.

Also, I suspect the inherent bias here is something around 10%, or 3-4 wins off the WAR total. That means the projections actually think Chicago is a 76-77 win team. I’m inclined to agree with you, as I have a hard time believing the White Sox rotation will in fact have a 4.65 ERA next year.

I agree. It’s a bad label on the spreadsheet. I used xFIP projections from Fangraphs to provide a defense-independent measure of runs for pitchers. I adjusted up or down where there were real differences with CHONE projections.

Thanks for the feedback. With Harris, I’ve got it as a semi-platoon, if that makes any sense. Not really a strict LHP/RHP, that would be more of a 2 to 1 difference in AB in favor of Buscher. Even though the projections don’t show it (wOBA and defense are pretty similar), I’m expecting Harris to take the job over from Buscher same as he did at the end of 2008. Gardenhire could not stomach Buscher’s defense down the stretch and Harris really picked up his defense after settling in at 3B. I’m projecting to start the season, Harris plays 2-3 times as often as Buscher at 3B, with Buscher playing a couple times a week against the tougher RHP. If this happens, it would put Harris at about 50-50 R-L to start out (2 games/week each), so there should be a little bump there. Then, I’m assuming Punto ends up with at least one stint on the DL (probably sliding into 1B…) and Harris starts at SS with Tolbert providing the same type of cover against some RHP. In the end, 500 PA for Harris feels about right to me. I expect the LHP-RHP split to be closer to 50-50, so perhaps a bump up from .327. Where would you put his wOBA with a 50-50 split? In 2008, Harris’ L-R splits were virtually identical:
2008 vs LHP: .265/.323/.391 (151 AB)
2008 vs RHP: .265/.329/.396 (283 AB)

As for throwing arms, yes, I should probably account for Cuddyer and Young’s arms. I didn’t really take OF arms into consideration. If I bump up Young and Cuddyer an additional +0.25 in the field, it bumps Minnesota up to 88.3 wins. Does that seem right? I’ll need to do for the rest of the division…

I’ll use the .332 number. Thanks.

Given my projections (no Young playing RF, even though I think Young should play more RF and Span more LF), that means pretty much only Cuddyer would be getting a bump for his arm in RF. A 0.25 bump for Young in LF makes sense as well (IMO), considering throws to 2B and Home.

The only player out there that I see being a real improvement, other than a marginal upgrade by adding a bullpen arm like Lyon, is Adrian Beltre. However, we would probably have to give up too much in return to have a net impact worth the cost in salary and players.

Will Rodney and Zumaya be healthy?

I think last year was the aberration for Jackson, and that’s why TB was so eager to trade him (they made out well on that trade). Verlander and Gallaraga are nice at the top, but Bonderman can’t seem to stay healthy. I expect him to be hurt again.

Overall, I see their rotation being a bit below average, with their bullpen well below average. IF everyone stays healthy AND Willis rounds back into form, they have potential to be a bit above average. That’s how they could get back to a league average staff, IMO.

Yes, I started with the ESPN depth chart. I’ll make a few updates to the Cleveland projections. Thought I read somewhere that the DeRosa signing was going to move Peralta to 3B and Cabrera to SS. No worries.

As far as the rotation is concerned, I’ll update to reflect the Pavano signing, but I can’t in good conscience assign him any more than 50 innings. And even that’s a bit high. Agree that Reyes isn’t a lock for the entire season either, this should probably be reflected in an IP projection even lower than 140, possibly 120 or so.

I updated the Indians projections as you note above. With those changes, Cleveland improved by +0.5 WAR, 0.3 offense and 0.2 pitching. I didn’t include Westbrook in the rotation, spots were pretty full as it was. Perhaps he would replace Zach Jackson’s innings…

Not that .25 win is a big deal.

especially since Cleveland now has their third baseman. The basic question is whether Wigginton is truly an upgrade at 3B over Buscher/Harris. Defensively, I suspect it’s a wash, Harris a little better and Buscher a little worse in the field. Offensively, I think Wigginton can be an upgrade, but probably on the order of 10 runs / 1 win. As long as we’re talking about a 1 year deal in the $5M range, perhaps a team option in 2010, I’m fine with signing Wigginton. Having Wigginton, Punto, Harris and their flexibility in the infield would give us a lot of versatility when inevitable injuries occur.

All said though, I think I’d rather have Joe Crede on a 1 year contract. Considering defense alone, he’s over 10 runs better than Wigginton or any of our current 3B options. Yes, the injury is a risk, but if he gives us a solid half year with a wOBA in the low .330s and great defense, could be an improvement of over 10 runs, worth the likely one year cost. More than a half year is icing on the cake. Less than a half year, oh well, we’re not obligated beyond 2009.