Reusse on Smith: Where in the world is Bill Smith?
I have to say I agree with him. Bill Smith has made a total of one good move out of 10 or so. And he's made a very few moves this offseason. Is he shell shocked from last offseason?
5 months ago
cmathewson
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I agree with the general point
but Reusse is being too harsh on Smith, IMO. First, Reusse didn’t even acknowledge the large expected payroll increases come 2010 and 2011. Considering that Joe C published an article a week or two ago in the same paper citing these increases as a driving factor behind the Twins’ reluctance to take on additional payroll, Reusse should at least address the point whether or not he agrees. Second, I disagree that there is a “huge hole” in our bullpen. Could we improve by signing Cruz or Lyon? Sure, by less than a marginal win, IMO. I also would not write off the Delmon Young trade. We didn’t make that trade for 2008, we made it for the player we expect Young to be in 2010. I expect Young and Harris both to make strides this year, and I still feel Garza is an injury waiting to happen.
But here’s my general problem with the STrib and Smith. Why isn’t someone asking Bill Smith these tough questions? In other markets, Brian Cashman, Theo Epstein, etc have to answer when a key free agent signs elsewhere or a trade falls through. Has anyone asked Smith whether the Twins offered (and Chicago rejected) an offer similar to Cleveland’s for DeRosa? Etc.
by Adam Peterson on
Jan 8, 2009 12:36 PM EST
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Smith MIA
I agree that not all of his moves have been horrible. But I think only one of them can be called a win at this point. The jury’s out on the Young trade, but it certainly hurt the Twins in 2008. It might have been the Twins rather than the Rays in the Series were it not for that trade. And his free agent signings were an unqualified disaster. But that isn’t the point of the column.
The point of the column is that he’s practically gone into hiding. They’ve tried to ask him these questions, but he’s been evasive. Even at the Winter meetings, he had Rob Antony cover the media for him. So if he doesn’t want to do anything now, he should at least say that and why to the media. But he doesn’t even let them ask him questions. That’s bad form, imo.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on
Jan 8, 2009 1:26 PM EST
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What's the one good move?
I think the Santana trade will work out long term as well, but I wouldn’t call it a win yet either. Perhaps claiming Breslow is a win. Agree that the FA signings have been terrible. Hopefully we don’t add Punto to that list this year.
Totally agree with being harsh on Smith for going into hiding. A GM has to stand up, answer questions, or refuse to comment if commenting would put us at a strategic disadvantage. Then again, if BS doesn’t want to do anything, I’d prefer him to be quiet for now. What would the Twins gain from him going to the media and saying “We aren’t going to make any moves, love the team we’ve got”? I’d rather have teams come to us looking for cheap young pitching.
by Adam Peterson on
Jan 8, 2009 2:09 PM EST
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Santana
When you consider that the Twins would be looking at draft pick compensation for Santana at this point if they had not traded him, I think it’s a win.
But Breslow was the one unqualified win—one of the best low-risk, high-reward deals in baseball last year.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on
Jan 8, 2009 3:51 PM EST
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Bill Smith's FA Signings
C Math called Smith’s FA signings as an “unqualified disaster”, AND that seems to be the predominant view here and on other Twin’s blogs.
This is a view I find curious and DO NOT understand. If you fell from the sky TODAY, that would make more sense.
My premise comes from a backround of playing way too much poker. When I play, I am attempting to figure out what my opponent is doing, based on what they have done. From this backround, I generally attempt to explain (for myself) why X did Y.
I think both Lamb & Everett signings, to short term contracts were a demonstration that the FO thought/expected that they had internal options which were a year or two away, and weren’t sure if Casilla, Harris, Tolbert etal were quite ready. He was basically looking for cover. The Everett injuries could probably have been anticipated/expected. Lamb regressed from previous output, and if my memory serves was the best liked move (relative) of his FA signings. Didn’t work out, yet Casilla & Tolbert stepped up earlier than expected?
Livan Hernandez was the BEST signing of the bunch. Was he painful to watch at times? You betcha, BUT the team WON at a .608 pace when he started. IF the Twins had won ALL of their games at that rate, they would have won 10 more games during the season, and probably have made the playoffs. Yea, I know, run support blah blah blah. He did EXACTLY what he was signed to do.
Monroe is the closest to a disaster, and his purpose was bench power.
For disasters, ALL 4 contributed to wins, and without them, the team is probably 10 wins worse…just about where almost everyone expected them to be Feb 15th 2008.
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
by the Dragon on
Jan 8, 2009 2:19 PM EST
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I see your point...
I agree that, at the time, pretty much all the moves were defensible. However, a general manager’s performance isn’t ultimately judged on how his moves looked when they were made – it’s judged by how those moves worked out. The Lamb signing didn’t work out. The Everett signing didn’t work out. The Monroe trade didn’t work out. The Hernandez signing looked good for almost a third of the season, but I find it hard to say that it “worked out” when he was ultimately waived.
I’m not pointing this out to come across as superior – I was initially in favor of all those moves except the Monroe trade. The fact is that Smith made a very small number of offseason moves last year, and virtually all of them made the Twins worse in 2008 even though only one, the Santana trade, was solely about sacrificing present value for future value.
That said, I’m not convinced that standing pat right now, as Smith did, wasn’t the right approach this offseason. I wasn’t particularly enamored with the free agent 3B options compared to Buscher and Harris, and free agent relievers that aren’t closers are pretty unpredictable. About the only free agent I’d have liked to see in Minnesota was Furcal, and I guess I can understand not getting into a bidding war for him given his injury history. The Twins nearly won the division last year with a roster that is almost entirely composed of players who are on the upswing of their careers, so it’s not all that unlikely that the same team could be counted on to produce better results next year.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on
Jan 8, 2009 3:58 PM EST
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Um, don't agree
When I say they were disasters, I mean they made the team worse at thier respective positions while accounting for 20 percent of the payroll. Yes, they played at or above replacement level. But there were better players waiting for opportunities.
- Buscher was better than Lamb in spring training last year. If there was no Lamb signing, the team would have been better at third from Day 1.
- Punto was better than Everette last year. If the Twins had not signed Everette and had made Punto the everyday shortstop instead, they would have been better.
- Monroe was worse than anybody we had at DH last year.
- Hernandez is debatable. Who would have taken his innings? Probably Perkins in the beginning and ultimately Liriano, after Boof fell apart. I think those two were better than Hernandez last year. And Boof wasn’t much worse, either. The Twins had enough depth to not sign Hernandez, and they proved that by trading him for an order of chicken nuggets at the deadline, after he blew a third of his games.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on
Jan 8, 2009 4:00 PM EST
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The did all end up working out poorly, but...
I still think the Everett signing was a good one at the time it was made. It was one year, didn’t put a lot of money into him, and when healthy, he was a great defensive shortstop. Noone could have known that punto would rebound as he did after his disasterous 2007.
If the Lamb signing was also for one year, I would have liked that signing alot at the time also. At worst I would have thought it was an overpayment for a slight upgrade to Buscher.
The monroe signing was stupid at the time and looks even worse now.
The only problem I had with the Hernandez signing is that we held on to him to long. He definitely did help us out at the beginning of the season, but his periferals were just too ugly to ignore and they should have cut their ties earier, when we may have gotten an order of fries with our nuggets.
So I guess what I’m saying is, with the information he had at the time, BS’ moves weren’t great, but they weren’t all that bad either. Pretty much all of them hit the “worst case scenario” side of things. What I’m concerned about is if these failed moves kept him from making a move this offseason. There has to be some middle ground.
by lookatthosetwins on
Jan 9, 2009 2:47 PM EST
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One correction
The Lamb signing was for two years, guaranteed. In essence, we paid him $6 million for a half a season of crappy third base defense and a sub-600 OPS—below replacement level for a third baseman. It was worse than the Batista signing.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on
Jan 9, 2009 2:58 PM EST
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Smiths moves.
I don’t think he has done as bad as others i guess.
Lamb was a good signing…. Lamb failed that one.
Livan was insurance in case the starters needed help. He won 10 games…lucky at best….but he was like a pitching coach and did help out….He was a little pricey at 5 million but who cares the Twins were under budget and it didn’t stop them from getting anyone else….. move is considered even by me.
Delmon Young trade is still in grading process, but the part that made everyone concerned, the minor league reliever what’s his name instead of Rincon hasn’t come back to haunt. Young and Harris both had solid OPS after first 2 months. Vs a #3 starter and an all defense no hit SS. Yes Garza has potential and did well in the playoffs, but to call this trade a loss because of Garza’s playoffs is like calling the Doyle Alexander to Detroit trade for some minor leaguer named John Smoltz back in 87 a winner for Detroit cause he went 9-0 down the stretch to help them get to the playoffs.
Claiming Breslow off of Waivers…Win
Craig Monroe trade is not quite a loss. the worst part about it was the money he got. which Bill Smith thought he could cut even more….thats his bad. I am not ever going to complain about giving a player money as long as it doesn’t hinder us from signing another player….see Joe Mays….
Adam Everett signing….ok this move was terrible…..
Doing nothing down the stretch to bolster the bullpen… Terrible
The Santana trade is still a work in process but …. that trade isn’t his fault as the Twins could have extended Santana the year before he asked for the 150 million extention. The Twins could have had Torii extended to a 4 year 56 million the year before he signed the 5 year 90 million contract too but….(now I am getting off subject).
by doofus on
Jan 8, 2009 2:21 PM EST
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What about him?
He’s with his third team in three years now. Right?
by Johnny Safron on
Jan 8, 2009 11:42 PM EST
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looks like
the Dragon beat me to the punchline.
by doofus on
Jan 8, 2009 2:24 PM EST
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MIA
So many simple moves to upgrade the roster passed by. From simple waiver claims to easily beatable trade packages, to affordable contracts, Smith has been totally absentee. I’m very wary going forward.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on
Jan 8, 2009 3:04 PM EST
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If I Re-Call didn't most Twins fans
LOVE his offseason last off-season Maybe not so much the Santana – Gomez deal
but the Rest of the Moves…..Delmon Young, Brendon Harris, Mike Lamb?
I for on, Much like Aaron Gleeman Never liked the Garza- Young Deal I was very critical of it from the get-go I would have NEVER traded Garza …..
Yeah in a way I think he wants to keep this off-season on the down- low…
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on
Jan 8, 2009 8:39 PM EST
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I'll admit
I was happy with the Lamb signing and with the Garza trade at the time. I did not expect Lamb to fall off the map, and with Garza-Young it seemed like a good trade of an area where we had excess for a need. I thought Harris for Bartlett was a positive at the time for us as well, did not expect Punto to outhit and outfield Bartlett last year… I still like Young-Harris to be solid contributors over the next three years, with Young potentially being a star.
I was not very happy with Everett and Livan, both seemed to be bad fits for an AL team. Everett the black hole offensively and Livan simply eating innings at a poor quality as well.
I was not happy with the Santana trade at the time because of the package we got. That was more due to comparing to the other rumored deals (particularly Boston rumors including Lester or Ellsbury in addition to Lowrie, Masterson, etc.). We don’t know those deals were ever on the table. Right now, I’ll take the package over two draft picks and a season of Santana.
by Adam Peterson on
Jan 8, 2009 9:33 PM EST
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Ditto on everything except Bartlett for Harris; that one hurt too. I just couldn't see the logic...
…and I fully expect Punto to digress this year. I wouldn’t want to put up any cash to keep him.
"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."
by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on
Jan 9, 2009 1:34 AM EST
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Maybe...
Right now, I’ll take the package over two draft picks and a season of Santana.
As much as it was probably for the best, long-term, I don’t know that it’s exactly an easy decision to say which we’d rather have. The Twins almost won their division after trading away the best pitcher in all of baseball. Who’s to say that they don’t go (or win) the Series in ‘08 with Santana in the rotation and Span replacing Gomez all season? We’re getting awfully deep into the “What if?”s here, but that was one of the Twins’ greatest “What if?” seasons ever.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on
Jan 9, 2009 10:23 AM EST
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When you look at all the free agents still available...
…it’s easy to see most teams are concerned about the economy and about losing draft choices. Funny: fans cry loud and clear about building from within, then they cry loud and clear when their teams don’t sign free agents.
by Johnny Safron on
Jan 8, 2009 11:44 PM EST
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Not mutually exclusive
I don’t think anyone on this board wants the Twins to abandon the general strategy of building from within. But it’s nearly impossible to build exclusively from within. So you have to make roster adjustments to augment your home-brewed team when you have the chance. And not just any free agent signing or trade will do: You have to make good ones.
The Twins’ major league scouting has been so bad that they have not made good free agent signings or trades that brought major league players to the team in the last five years: Mike Redmond and Craig Breslow are the exceptions that prove the rule. But just because you haven’t been successful at something doesn’t mean you should abandon it altogether. Maybe you change your major league scouting department. Still, you have to bring major leaguers in if you want to win championships.
There were (and are) several good deals available to the Twins if they were ( and are) willing to take a little risk. But they appear risk averse after losing big on their risks the last five years or so.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on
Jan 9, 2009 10:56 AM EST
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CMath...
…why do you think it is that a team that does so very well scouting other teams minor league systems (we continually come up with quality players when trading for the likes of Bartlett, Casilla, etc), yet, we don’t seem to scout very well and constantly sign players that for whatever reason don’t fit or perform well here?
by roger13 on
Jan 9, 2009 3:15 PM EST
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My guess
is that while we might have similar numbers of MLB and MiLB scouts (I don’t know), the focus is very different. We are scouting the minors specifically to find pieces for trades. We are scouting the majors to provide an advantage when we play a given team during the year. With MLB advance scouting, we are much more concerned with tendencies, positioning, etc.
The biggest reason though is probably the type of player we have looked to sign. The “under the radar” type that “falls through the cracks”. We’re looking at bargain veterans, but we end up with a lot of guys with high collapse rates.
by Adam Peterson on
Jan 9, 2009 3:58 PM EST
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It's a mystery
You’re right. No team has better minor league scouts than the Twins. But we don’t seem to have the same ability on the major league level.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on
Jan 9, 2009 4:49 PM EST
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I don't buy this,,,
…Mark Twain observation that a cat who sits on a hot stove lid will never do it again, but he will never sit on a cold one, either.
Other than Reusse’s judgment – and his judgment is spot on more often than anyone on the planet when it comes to Minnesota sports – I don’t see any evidence that Smith and the rest of the boys have even decided they failed with the Garza deal.
It’s largely the same group as under Terry Ryan. Jim Pohlad has run the team for years, and the rest of the cast has played musical chairs. Bill Smith doesn’t seem to fancy himself a judge of talent, which if true suggests that Rob Anthony, Terry Ryan and the rest are still making judgments.
So the basic premise that they’re running scared is flawed, or at least unsubstantiated.
by Johnny Safron on
Jan 9, 2009 9:55 PM EST
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The question is...
…if we did neither trade last winter, we would have gotten two draft picks and had Santana for another year and also had Bartlett and Garza. Do we get to the playoffs or World Series with that?
by roger13 on
Jan 9, 2009 3:13 PM EST
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yes
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on
Jan 9, 2009 4:49 PM EST
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Yes on the playoffs
more likely on the World Series. Once in the playoff, it’s a crapshoot, and the teams with aces are rewarded more than others. With Santana and Garza we make the playoffs and immediately become a WS contender, but who knows how the playoffs turn out and then after 2008 we are left with two draft picks…
by Adam Peterson on
Jan 9, 2009 9:20 PM EST
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No way to possibly know, of course
You would have the Santana walk-year distraction, and the typical Bartlett fragility leading to his absenteeism. Bartlett’s OPS+ was worse than Punto. Worse than Harris. Garza was barely a .500 pitcher on a nearly 100-win team, and might have done that well only because of the change of scenery.
by Johnny Safron on
Jan 9, 2009 10:06 PM EST
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You kidding me?
Add Garza and Santana to Baker, Slowey and Blackburn? Add Bartlett to stabilize short? I’m pretty sure they get at least one more win out of that crew. As Adam said, it’s kind of a crap shoot whether they make it to the WS. But with Santana, Garza, Baker and Slowey in the playoff rotation, I like our chances.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on
Jan 9, 2009 11:07 PM EST
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That said, I'm not sure I go for it
You always have to balance short and long term. They had a simple choice: Go for it and rick being mediocre at best afterwards, or play for the long term. They played for the long term. And I don’t really blame them. Span and Casilla were big question marks last offseason. And how do you replace Hunter from within? Hindsight is 20-20, and the rear view mirror is clear: If they had not made those trades, they would have been much better in 2008. Given what they knew at the time, they made the best choices they could, and I don’t really fault them for that. At least on trades. Free agency…that’s another story.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on
Jan 9, 2009 11:12 PM EST
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You're kidding me
You know what would have happened if something else would have happened? Hell, that’s impossible. Garza could have killed Santana in a knife fight in spring training. You can’t just lay a carbon-copy linear path in a make-believe parallel universe and tell people what would have happened.
by Johnny Safron on
Jan 10, 2009 10:59 AM EST
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Probabilities
In your black-and-white world, perhaps counterfactuals are simply impossible. But if you’re willing to deal with probabilities, you can draw some likely conclusions from probable scenarios. It is highly unlikely that Garza would attack Santana with a knife, for example. So we could safely rule out that possibility. It’s highly likely that Santana and Garza would have done better than Hernandez/Liriano and Bonser/Perkins. And it’s highly likely that Bartlett would have done better than Everett/Tolbert/Harris/Punto, all things considered.
If you want to close your mind to counterfactuals, that’s your call. But don’t tell us what is out of bounds.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on
Jan 10, 2009 11:44 AM EST
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ALL things considered?
Hell, let’s just consider one: Bartlett’s offense was worse than the two primary SS for the Twins last year.
by Johnny Safron on
Jan 10, 2009 5:34 PM EST
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That's why you have to consider defense
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on
Jan 10, 2009 7:58 PM EST
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And Bartlett's defense
was better than Harris, but worse than Punto.
UZR/150 for the three at SS last year:
Bartlett: +1.5 122 games
Punto: +12.0 60 games
Harris: -11.8 51 games
by Adam Peterson on
Jan 11, 2009 9:46 AM EST
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Bartlett is not much of a ballplayer
Despite the years-long lovefest for him on this board.
Sorry, pallie, people have their lives changed because they took 3 seconds to pick up their dropped car keys. Keeping Santana and Garza was no guarantee of anything, and only an egomaniac would state that he knows for certain what would have happened had the happy trails of the cosmos zigged rather than zagged. You can delude yourself into all the omniscient stupors you like, but no one can predict what would have happened with its and buts any more than you can predict when your phone is going to ring next.
Of course, as always, we can predict there will be a last word from Mr. Last Word.
by Johnny Safron on
Jan 10, 2009 10:15 PM EST
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Last Word
Pallie
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on
Jan 11, 2009 11:18 AM EST
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Did I miss something?
Wasn’t Bartlett Tampa’s MVP last year? He must have done something good to be so highly thought of on their team.
by roger13 on
Jan 11, 2009 9:01 AM EST
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Yes
he was voted the TB team MVP, I believe by a panel of TB writers (not sure about who voted, if it included coaches, players, etc.) While the numbers do not appear to justify the MVP decision, I believe TB was coming off a year of poor defensive play at SS (a lot of it Harris) and 2B (BJ Upton). Bartlett and Iwamura greatly improved their infield defense up the middle (as did Upton in CF), and I suspect Bartlett got a lot of the credit.
by Adam Peterson on
Jan 11, 2009 9:50 AM EST
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