And of course, you’re always welcome back at any time. It’s the crappiest pay you could ask for, but you’re always welcome back.

The Geek is pretty much right on (as usual), and it’s right on par with what we talked about here and here. Two smart sites coming up with roughly the same numbers makes a pretty strong case for where things will sit, as far as I’m concerned.

I’m actually quite interested in Dan Uggla, and I’m sure he’s somebody I’ll write about at least twice over the upcoming off-season. He hits right-handed, hits for power and is pretty decent at being an OBP guy in spite of a relatively unimpressive batting average. He’ll be 30 next season and is still arb-eligible for two years. Like Crede he’s a big fly-ball hitter, but he hits more of those flies over the wall, and is ISO is impressive. He has a good eye at the plate, even though he’s not the best contact hitter in the world. FanGraphs thinks he was worth $13MM this year.

I like Hardy, too. If the Twins could grab Hardy for SS, Uggla for 2B or 3B and keep Carl Pavano around, I would consider that a good off-season.

The Twins might actually be in the catbird seat coming into 2010. I read somewhere that major league attendance, on the whole, suffered like 4%. That the Twins ahd increased attendance has to bear well with this season, and the prospect of basically pre-selling the stadium for 2010 and reaching 3 million patrons has to have management salivating. Remember, the Twins have the potential to bank a good chunk of change before the season even begins…none of this massive walk-up sales and stuff.

Add in concessions, signage, some parking and better marketing. Whew!

I always find disagreements with this 52% figure that Jim Pohlad, I believe, threw out.

Any business, you have basic overhead costs. With the Twins managing a club and selling 3 million tickets, well, the cost of operations is not that much different than running a club and selling 2 million tickets. They might actually save money on gameday operations in the long run, or have the people working on customer relations, which would be a plus.

Minor leagues has a pretty set budget, as does scouting. You may spend more signing folks…and the Twins went overboard in 2009 comapred to previous years. If this area, as well as siging bonuses for stars, stays the same…well…they stay the same.

But if the Twins, say, increase revenue up to $50 million, do they automatically spend $25 million more on operations and scouting and bonus stuff, leaving only $25 million for product, which I call the players. Or do they actually have $50 million to spend on on-field product. I say they have the $50 million. If they choose to set some aside for draft picks, or give Mauer a $30 million signing bonus, well that is fine and dandy.

Interesting economic outlook on the team….

One, Delmon Young gets more than a million due to the contract he signed that went thru his arbitration years.

Two, you can’t cut a player more than 20%. It seldom happens, but wouldn’t it be great if you could cut Crain, Liriano and Perkins 20%…which isn’t much considered their status and they could get it all back and more with a dynamite season.

Brendan Harris will cost a million. With $4 million already tied up in backup infielder Nick Punto, is he worth it if a comparable replacement is in place (i.e. Tolbert).

The Twins may be unqiue in that their bullpen costs more than the starting rotation. Besides Nathan, you have three $2+ guys in Crain, Guerrier and Rauch. Not to mention what do you pay the aging Mahay.

Do you sign Boof and Neshek to longterm contracts? Do they give you an “injured season” bargain rate? I still marvel that a player can get a substantial raise after sitting out a year. Neshek has options, I believe, so he’ll be able to start the season in the minors.

Look to signing guys (like the Cuddy extension) with the hopes of sending them elsewhere mid-season. If you can’t send Gomez down for most of the year, I would still keep Young. He is cheap and should become more valuable and still be affordable until the Young Guys emerge from AA and A ball.

The Twins have a solid core. They really do.

And they have a pipeline of pitchers that should allow you to lose one of the past starting five, or even two, each of the next few years…repalced by non-arbitration or non free-agent talent.

But back to the 52%. If I sell $100,000 this year, and $200,000 next year…my overhead doesn’t increase unless I add staff, except for the more product I have to buy. And considering baseball product is players, that’s where the money needs to go…not fancier phone systems, office furniture, better stationary, matching shirts for the staff, bigger cars to drive around….

I’m glad to hear you’ll still be around the comment section

and put punto at the other one. Iwamura, Hardy, Crede, Wilson, Carrol and Kennedy are all potential targets that project to be league average or better and don’t come with a huge price tag. Obviously Hardy would be through trade. If the price is right on any of these guys, they should pull the trigger.
I’d stay away from Scutaro – that’s a big “buy high” and you can’t expect him to perform anywhere near the level he did last year. Also he’s type A.
Ocab, despite Ron Darling’s claims that he carried us to the playoffs, is not an upgrade, or much of an upgrade, over the Puntos and Harrises of the world.
Matt Tolbert should not be even considered for a starting job if we want to contend, and either should Casilla.

You are a long ways off on JJ’s salary projection if the Twins do choose to pursue him. He has already begun his arbitration years and made 4.65MM this year. Even with his shitty year, I doubt he sees a pay cut and at minimum he has to get payed 3.72MM. He was actually scheduled to be a FA following 2010, but the Brewers sent him down for 20 days in August to “just” cut his service time enough to steal a year of his free agency. This increased his trade value because he’s under team control for two years rather than one, but he’s still relatively expensive if you were hoping to have a cheap middle infield.

All in all, a great post though.

Unless you can come up with someone who really hits lefthanders well, Cuddyer shouldn’t be traded. Mauer and Morneau are great players, when healthy, but both of them suffer a bit when facing a lefthander. Kubel had a .644 OPS vs. lefties while OPSing 1.013 vs. righthanders. Already Mauer and Morneau have faced more lefthanders than anybody in the last two years. Having someone (Cuddyer) to crush lefthanders helps the club immensely. On top of that, Michael is a real team guy. Yes, I understand the positional problem and I understand the financial benefit of trading a relatively high-priced player, but Cuddyer benefits this team for more than his good numbers indicate.

Anyone that looks deeper than batting average can see flaws in O-Cab. He doesn’t get on base much, has average at best power and has diminished as a defender by every metric. That said, he gets better later in the season. He is a far better player than Harris. The more Harris plays, the more his flaws show. The more Cabrera plays, the more his strengths show (at least for the Twins this year).

While I don’t favor re-signing Cabrera (I’d much rather see Hardy), I wouldn’t be brokenhearted if the Twins did re-sign him. He’ll play a lot of games and get more than his share of key hits. He’ll also not get to a lot of balls that most SSs get to, and his OBP will be low. A team can win a division (or more) with Cabrera as the SS. I wouldn’t say the same for Punto or Harris.

Stephen Drew is going to be on the block. Id love to see the Twins get him. Had a down year offensively but has made huge strides with the glove and has tons of potential.

Dan Uggla. I don’t know what it would take to get him, but it would be nice to have him split up the lefties. That would be 5 guys who can hit 25-30 HR in the lineup. And, since Uggla isn’t good at 2B, Id like to let him at least have a crack at third.

Sigh.

For all that you’ve brought to this site. You’ve been a huge part of what originally brought me to this site as a lurker, commenter, fan poster, and finally a writer here. Always reasonable analysis, well split between a “scout” and “numbers” perspective.

As we say in the Navy, fair winds and following seas to you on your new endeavour. I hope you will be able to post from time to time next year.

We need more power from2B, SS, #B, CF than what we currently have on the roster, especially if Span displaces Young in LF (Young should be a 15-20 HR guy kinimum….Span will do 8). We need a basher at 3B. We can live with Cabrera’s 8-10 at SS. We can’t live with Punto “0” at 2B…and Gomez needs to show a bit more extra-base incentives.

I enjoyed your writing here. Good to see you’ll still be dropping in from time to time.