Joe Nathan's Not Losing His Fastball, Is He?
by Jon Marthaler on Oct 19, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
in By the Numbers
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PrintDuring last week's great "Joe Nathan: Trade Him?" debate, a friend of mine (who shall remain nameless) made the following point: "His fastball seems to have lost some hop (and not just in the final month of the season)."
Apart from all of the other arguments, this one I had to explore for myself - and thanks to the highly useful PitchFX tool at BrooksBaseball.Net and the PitchFX pages at FanGraphs.com, I had the tools I needed.
Let us deconstruct the above argument, and tackle some possibilities one by one.
Prop. #1: Joe Nathan's fastball has lost some hop.
Veracity: Probable.
First of all, let's be clear: the PitchFX data available only extends back to midway through the 2007 season. We can't use this to prove whether Nathan has dropped velocity since 2004, when he started closing games for Minnesota.
However, it's probable that he's lost some zip since then; after all, he was 29 back then. He'll be 35 next month. Of course he's not throwing as hard as he once did. Not everybody's Nolan Ryan, and can keep throwing hard until they're 68 years old.
That said, if you wanted to use that argument, then you should have used it two years ago.
Prop #2: Joe Nathan has RECENTLY lost some zip on the fastball.
Veracity: Questionable.
Looking back over 2008 and 2009, the numbers seem to speak pretty clearly. Nathan's average fastball in 2008 was 93.6 mph. In 2009, his average fastball was... 93.6 mph. (In the limited data from 2007, he was up around 95). Take a look at the following charts. (Update: Just to be clear, these graphs are from the super-wonderful PitchFX pages at FanGraphs.com. I trust their data and so should you.)
The first is a graph of his averages, for all of the data we have for the past three years:
The second shows his velocity ranges for his fastball, in the same time period:
I'm just eyeballing these graphs, so I can't tell you that these prove anything with any statistical certainty. But 2008 and 2009 look a lot alike, and I have a feeling that if you lined them all up in descending order, there'd be a lot of '08 appearances and '09 appearances intermingled. If anything, his fastball has been the same for two years.
So let's examine one more possible argument, about September and October this year.
Prop. #3: Joe Nathan lost something off his fastball in September.
Veracity: Doubtful.
I reviewed his average and max fastball speeds for all of his appearances in the regular season in September and October (a stretch in which he saved 12 of 13 games, had a 3.38 ERA, and allowed opponents to hit .158, by the way.)
- In his 16 appearances, his average fastball was 93+ mph in 13 of them. Two of the other three came on 9/15 and 9/16, when he was pitching for the third and fourth day in a row.
- In ten of those appearances, he threw at least one fastball faster than 94.
- In two of those appearances, he touched 95 on the radar gun.
Ultimately, his fastball was more or less the same for the entire month - right in the 93-94 range consistently, day after day.
My conclusion
I think it's simple to sum up: sure, Nathan is older than he once was. He may not be able to throw as hard as he could at age 29. But over the past two years, he's maintained a remarkably consistent velocity on his fastball, and at 93-94 mph, he still throws plenty hard. I don't think a drop in velocity can be used as an argument for trading him.
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Maybe more a question of control
Great analysis! As a math geek, I love the charts.
In my mind, it seemed less an issue of MPH than of control and location. Personally, I chalked that up to Nathan being tired / overused towards the end of the season, but it definitely seemed like he was missing some pitches, especially with his fastball.
Funny
considering the consensus in the blogosphere was that Nathan was being “underused.” What say ye, Gardy bullpen critics?
I dont remember anyone saying nathan is "underused."
I do remember people pointing out that sometimes the most difficult situation (high leverage) comes in the 7th or the 8th rather than the 9th, and that it appears as if Gardenhire is a slave to ‘the save.’
by montanatwinsfan on Oct 19, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
logically
That would mean using Nathan more like Guerrier, which would mean more appearances. Though I see Guerrier appeared in 79 games, and Nathan was in 70, so they were not that far apart. Overall, Nathan finished 13th in games; third highest among closers behind Aardsma and Rodney.
And yes, there were plenty of people saying Gardy should use Nathan more often, with Gleeman often leading that charge.
They conveniently say that when the Twins are losing
Because he is typically reserved for save chances and the Twins don’t give him many save chances when they’re losing. Problem is, they’ll go on a 16-4 run and give him 12 save chances in 18 days and he’ll naturally get worn out. Then the “underuse” critics are curiously silent when he seems tired from throwing more innings than any closer in the game.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Well, I do think he's modestly underused
70 innings a year for your best guy? he never actually throws the most relief innings on the team. I think he could handle somewhere around 85 innings. I’m not suggesting a Gossage-esque 110 innings a year.
More than that though, it’s the usage, which has little to do with Gardenhire, other than its what everyone does. I hate that a scoring rule determines usage, as opposed to the actual realities of the game determining usage. If Holtzman (inventor, if memory serves), had decided that a save would be awarded only when the the tying run was on deck (thus, no 3 run saves starting an inning), the usage of a team’s best reliever would make a lot more sense.
by Eric in Madison on Oct 19, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I think a pitcher can be underused and overused
Gleeman’s main problem is seeing Nathan sit on the bench four days in a row then pitch three in a row. There’s not point in wasting his arm if the games aren’t close, but if we are down by one, tied, or something like that, then he should be used more often. Games we’re up by three in the ninth, however, probably don’t need someone of nathan’s caliber. He should be put in the highest leverage situations possible, while trying to make his workload relatively even.
by lookatthosetwins on Oct 20, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
That's easier said than done
You never know when your next streak of close-and-late situations will be. You can’t use him every day, so you save him for save situations. It’s not a perfect system. But no system is perfect with the unpredictability of how a team will play in the future.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Plus
Managers need to make these decisions in-the-moment, not the next day from the laptop.
For those who have ever coached at any level, you know that the hardest part of the job is knowing when is the right time to change pitchers. That and making sure someone brought beer.
you manage for the win today based on the situation today.
dont give us that ‘laptop’ crap. No question that knowing when to change pitchers is difficult and the decision is fraught with peril, (just ask Grady Little) but how many times this year did Gardenhire use a poor pitcher or a journeyman in a high leverage situation at the end of a ballgame (innings 7&8) when he had a ‘better’ pitcher waiting in the wings. Every manager is going to make mistakes, but Gardenhire consistently made questionable calls with the bullpen all season.
That isn’t meant to discount the need to manage over the course of a long season. Obviously a manager has to do that too. But a win today is worth risking a potential high leverage situation tomorrow.
@cmath; no a manager can’t predict the future, but that’s actually part of the point. A manager can take a look at the situation he has now and say why save Guerrier or Nathan for tomorrow night’s game when I have no idea what tomorrow night’s game will bring and I have the heart of the other team’s order up now with only a 2 run lead. I need Guerrier, Nathan, Mijares now. If that means I can’t use them tomorrow in the unlikely event that we find ourselves in the same situation then so be it. I need them tonight in this situation instead of Ayala, or instead of Dickey, Breslow, (early season Crain). Hopefully tomorrow night we’ll be ahead by three at this point and then I can use someone else, if not, that’s fine, but i have a chance for the win tonight, right now.
Cmath, how many times did you pull your hair out this season when Gardenhire continued to throw out Ayala and Crain, in particular, this season in high leverage situations?
I suspect that Nathan’s arm gets worn out toward the end of the season, that is the only explanation that makes sense to me for the struggles he’s shown at the end of the past few seasons. Using Nathan in other innings when appropriate does not necessarily mean using him more often. It does potentially mean using him smarter.
by montanatwinsfan on Oct 21, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know
How many times did Gardy use a journeyman in a high leverage situation? Do you know? If so, enlighten us.
I do know that Gurrier, Mijares, and Nathan were among the league leaders in appearances. So Gardy could not use them many more times in high leverage situations, or any other situations, for that matter.
Are you suggesting the Twins go to a three man bullpen? The way the game is today, you’re never out of it, so they should only use their best relievers. Ever.
He used Keppel in those situations way too often
At least a dozen times. And I know he used Dickey in those situations eight times, and Henn four times. Part of that was the personnel he had. When he got guys like Rauch, he had fewer of those Brian Bass brain farts. But he still brought Keppel into games in close and late situations when one loss meant the end of the season, and when better options were available. I remember the last game of the season, he brought Keppel in when Duensing was available. He ended up having to use Duensing anyway. I kept wondering why he didn’t just go to him when Pavano ran out of gas.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
+1
When Gardy uses Keppel, Dickey, Henn etc because he has no other options, that’s one thing. But there were plenty of times that he used Keppel in high leverage situations when other pitchers were available.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Oct 22, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
and no
In a 162-game season, often a “win today” is not worth risking overworking your bullpen. That’s how managers burn guys out.
of course its not, read my post more carefully.
by montanatwinsfan on Oct 22, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
"and it appears you want it both ways"
that’s what she said
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Oct 23, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
dont we all,
I want LNP to have so much power he can SLG .500, and yet be small enough to fit in my pocket and take home and put on my trophy case.
I want Joe Mauer to be an upstanding citizen who is all business, yet has no problem buying me a all the drinks I want and handing me all the hot women that he doesn’t want when he and I go clubbing on the weekends.
I want Ron gardenhire to be a master sabremetrician, and yet not manage the team from his mother’s basement.
I would like you to be a hot young female cheerleader type, and yet have adequate reading comprehension skills.
Yep. I want it both ways.
by montanatwinsfan on Oct 23, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Missing with the pitches
I think that was his problem toward the end of the season. The command wasn’t there, he was getting behind in the count. It would be interesting to see if PitchFx shows this loss of command since the August time frame.
by Adam Peterson on Oct 20, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Other Pitches
Vs the Yankees it looked like they were sitting on the fastball because he couldn’t get his breaking stuff over the plate.
The local media loves to say he has 4 pitches. He has to use them all to be effective.
pitch values
fangraphs uses linear weights to measure the value of every pitch thrown. The value is in runs and scaled per 100 pitches. Every event, including balls and strikes, is included.
FB/100 2008 2.72
FB/100 2009 1.62
SL/100 2008 2.03
SL/100 2009 1.36
CB/100 2008 1.04
CB/100 2009 3.04
His WAR this year was 1.9, compared to 2.1 in 2007 and 2008. His overall value is basically the same. He is just throwing more pitches to reach the same point. 1148 in 2009 compared to 1061 in 2008.
Personally, I think he nibbles too much and hasn’t been trusting his stuff which is still quite good.
by Jon Kammerer on Oct 19, 2009 9:38 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Locaton location location
WHen he throws strikes, he’s tough. When he starts every batter 2-0, he’s very hittable.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
That's what I've noticed
When he gets behind in the count, he loses confidence and gets even more twitchy, then lookout!…or maybe that was just me getting more twitchy watching him at the end of this season.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
—Hasta la victoria siempre ¡Patria o Muerte! –Ernesto "Che" Guevara
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Oct 19, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
Exactly. Nathan can nibble once he’s up 0-2. When he nibbles from the first pitch, watch out.
by Adam Peterson on Oct 20, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Missing Neshek
I heard an interesting argument concerning how similar the deliveries of Nathan and Guerrier are. Essentially that opposing teams are seeing two innings of the same delivery/timing allowing them to be more prepared for Nathan. Is it possible he is missing Neshek more than we think.
I agree there are some holes in this argument, but I think it might have some merit also. It would be interesting to see some info comparing how Nathan pitched following Guerrier vs other members of the bullpen.
by X-MT Twins Fan on Oct 19, 2009 10:56 AM EDT reply actions
I imagine it's just not as intense
like Liriano
Son, when you participate in sporting events, it's not whether you win or lose: it's how drunk you get. ~Homer Simpson
by thewild_viking_twins on Oct 19, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
His k rate is the best its been in years
He’s still by far the best pitcher on this team.
by lookatthosetwins on Oct 19, 2009 10:58 AM EDT reply actions
+1
The guy saved 47 games had 5 blown saves. That’s 90 percent successful. It doesn’t matter if he face 3 batters or 6 batters, all that matters is the W.
Find me someone someone better who is willing to play for the Twins and then we can discuss trades
by X-MT Twins Fan on Oct 19, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Movement, not velocity
I’d like to see the data on movement and location. Looks like there’s nothing to see for velocity. I agree that he still had a very good year.
Before
Before the pitch FX was available he usually threw up around 95 or 96 with some strike 3 heaters reaching back at 97 when he really reached back for it. I haven’t seen him throw that hard in several years, he’s down in the low and mid 90s now.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
part of the problem..
nathan still thinks he’s an intimidating force on the mound and that he can intimidate ppl and therefore just pump fastballs by them. For one thing, he doesn’t have good movement on his fastball, it’s fairly straight and the velocity isn’t there for that, secondly the more batters face him and knock him around, the less intimidated they are. see yankees, white sox, and numerous others. nathan could still be a dominant closer, now he just needs to learn how to pitch a little more, rather than just throw
Still good technical skills
There may be a bit of a downward trend in his fastball, but he’s still a really solid player with some years left in him for sure.
I think as long as he keeps it together mentally and doesn’t get rattled he will be fine for awhile to come.
Better or Best
WOuld the Twins be better served with Crain, Guerrier or Neshek in the closer role? Would such an advancement to that role mean we need to rely more on Rauch and Mijares as the 8th inning guy?
I like someone’s comments about Guerrier and Nathan basically throwing the same junk. I think Nathan’s may be a bit faster? But that only applys if the same batters end up facing the pitchers, which happens how often?
Ultimately, Joe is a challenging closer. He needs to throw the heat and you win or lose depending on what the batter does. It’s basically power against power. When Joe starts eating away at corners, throwing that “ball” to get someone to chase “the ball” (which never works early in the count, Joe and Gardy)…he starts putting himself into a hole.
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Better than nothing
It’s not about velocity. There are plenty of flamethrowers who fail because they have no movement, location, or the ability to change speeds. The problem with Nathan the last month was that he wasn’t throwing with confidence. I think it’s possible that he was just in a slump, like batters from time to time. He’s still good for another year or two, but probably not longer. And yes, I agree that Gardy is a slave to the save, but Nathan isn’t efficient enough to be in there for more than an inning- his saves are always an adventure, unlike Mariano Rivera.
I disagree
his saves are always an adventure
His saves weren’t an adventure until late in the season, before that it was pretty much a lock.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
—Hasta la victoria siempre ¡Patria o Muerte! –Ernesto "Che" Guevara
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Oct 20, 2009 8:21 PM EDT reply actions
reply fail
@jhowe
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
—Hasta la victoria siempre ¡Patria o Muerte! –Ernesto "Che" Guevara
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Oct 20, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Very true
the question is whether the late season struggles (relative to normal Joe Nathan) are a harbinger of things to come, or just a blip on the radar screen.
by Adam Peterson on Oct 20, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
he's been a bit shaky at the end of the last three seasons.
Hasn’t had the blown saves, but he’s struggled to get the side out at the end of the last few seasons. What does that mean? Beats the crap out of me. But I think it has become a pattern now.
by montanatwinsfan on Oct 21, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
I recall a stretch in July and August when he barely ever gave up a base runner.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Are the Twins better off with Guerrier/Crain as closer?
Simply put, no. However, depending on the package we might be able to get for him in a trade, it might make some sense. This was the case two years ago, and it remains the case now, late season struggles not withstanding. The problem is, there aren’t a lot of teams that immediately come to mind when one considers the trade market for an elite closer.
Atlanta: Could be in the market, considering Soriano and Gonzalez are both free agents. What are the chances Yunel Escobar and/or Kelly Johnson are available? I’d trade Nathan to shore up 2B/SS in a heart beat.
Chicago Cubs: Do they feel Marmol is the answer? I’d consider something like Marmol and Theriot or Vitters+ ?
Milwaukee: Trevor Hoffman is a free agent. Would they be open to Nathan for Hardy in a package deal? Hell, Nathan + Perkins for Hardy + Weeks would cause me to streak, Frank the Tank style…
Colorado: Huston Street is a free agent. What would they give up? Ian Stewart might be a nice piece, but he’s another left hander…
Tampa Bay: This one’s not as far fetched as you might think. They’re a few pieces (including closer) away from another serious run, and they’ve got young talent up the wazoo.
He was pitching hurt though
Bone chips removed in his elbow. Knowing that, why did Gardenhire keep using him like there was nothing wrong? If a manager knows a player is hurt yet keeps using him like nothing is wrong, that’s incompetence.
They didn't find the bone chips until after the season
According to sources, they discovered them in the post-season physical.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Nathan.....
Set-up. Often that 8th inning guy is someone, who in a pinch, can be the #2 closer if your closer needs a rest.
It’s ncie to have 2 8th inning guys. The Twins may have it next year — Rauch and Guerrier. They might also retain Crain, and have Mijares for that situational role, as well as an inning or so of work. Plus, the Neshek factor.
You save your closer for those days he may pitch 3-4 straight games. You hopefully have secondary stud (closer in training) who CAN pitch the ninth.
Plus, this year, like last, Nathan was called on a bit because the season was on the line. Many of those were pressure spots. A lot of rpessure spots. The outs were necessary or there was no tomorrow. Think of the tremendous pressure here!
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