John Sickles' Top 2010 Twins prospects
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 20, 2009 6:21 PM EDT
33 comments
From MINOR LEAGUE BALL
For Me Personally there were about 3-5 guys with a 1/3 letter grade too low.... but there were guys in Bullock and probably Salcedo that I expected to be C+ Guys.... so.....
Overall tough grades, too many relievers mentioned, and No Rene Tosoni or Deolis Guerra in top 20...!!!!
wow, but interesting and good ( I like Stuiffbergen over Hendricks and Slama over Delaney for example)
1) Aaron Hicks, OF, Grade B+: Excellent tools, numbers are better than they look on the surface. I think he'll break out in 2010.
2) Ben Revere, OF, Grade B: Kenny Lofton ceiling, Juan Pierre midpoint, Joey Gathright basement.
3) Kyle Gibson, RHP, Grade B-: Would be a Grade B+ at least if not for the injury concern.
4) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B-: Power and defense are positives, main question is weak walk rate.
5) Adrian Salcedo, RHP, Grade B-: Best of the pitchability right-handers in a system full of them.
6) Billy Bullock, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+; great stuff but will he throw strikes?
7) Angel Morales, OF, Grade C+: Could make a case for B-. Very good tools, numbers are better than they look on the surface, needs to improve discipline.
8) Danny Valencia, 3B, Grade C+: Needs to improve strike zone judgment and glovework to get a job in 2010.
9) Chris Parmalee, OF-1B, Grade C+: Lotsa power, draws walks, other skills are unimpressive.
10) Miguel Sano, SS, Grade C+: I really have no idea how to rank him at this point. Might turn into Miguel Cabrera, could fizzle in A-ball, no way to know yet.
11) Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Grade C+: Ground ball machine. Could rank as high as seventh.
12) Joe Benson, OF, Grade C+: Excellent tools and is showing signs of skill development. Could also rank as high as seventh.
13) David Bromberg, RHP, Grade C+: Classic Twins pitching prospect, relies on pitchability rather than pure stuff.
14) B.J. Hermsen, RHP, Grade C+: Great rookie ball performance, projectable, need data from higher levels.
15) Ben Tootle, RHP, Grade C+: High-ceiling arm, needs to improve command.
16) Anthony Slama, RHP, Grade C+: Deceptive delivery with high strikeout rates, tough on right-handed hitters, could slot into middle relief role in 2010.
17) Matt Bashore, LHP, Grade C+: Could rank higher if he stays healthy.
18) Tom Stuifbergen, RHP, Grade C+: Could be a Grade C. Another pitchability guy. Gets lots of grounders.
19) Jeff Manship, RHP, Grade C: Possible fifth starter or long relief type.
20) Tyler Robertson, LHP, Grade C: Stock has dropped a lot, but looks like a potential LOOGY to me.
OTHERS (all Grade C right now): Oswaldo Arcia, OF; Alex Burnett, RHP; Rob Delaney, RHP; Brian Dozier, SS; Deolis Guerra, RHP; Chris Herrmann, OF; Steve Hirschfeld, RHP; Luke Hughes, INF; Max Kepler-Rozycki, OF; Bobby Lanigan, RHP; Andrei Lobanov, LHP; Jose Lugo, LHP; Derek McCallum, 2B: Mike McCardell, RHP; Josmil Pinto, C-DH; Trevor Plouffe, SS; Tobias Streich, C; Brad Tippett, RHP; Mike Tonkin, RHP; Rene Tosoni, OF; Loek Van Mil, RHP, Blayne Weller, RHP.
I think Guerra and Tosoni should be C+s also Ramos a B and Valencia a B-, also probably Angel Morales as well...
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I flat out disagree with SP David Bromberg
13th on that list… and graded C+ (I would have tabbed him at B-)
also he didn’t lead all of the minors in 2008 in strikeouts and lead the FSL in K’s in 2009
for some random luck or soft ‘pitchibility’ reason.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 20, 2009 6:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's the most glaring problem
I also hate his grade of Ramos.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Oct 20, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you think Ramos' walk rate is not that significant of a concern?
…2.8% walk rate in AA New Britain. He had about a 7% walk rate in the lower minors.
From what I can tell, Sickels places a heavy emphasis on K and BB rate for younger hitters as an indicator of future success.
What do you think the grade should be? B/B+?
by Mike I on Oct 20, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sample sizes
He was hurt a good deal last year. So I don’t pay too close attention to exact percentages. He’s always been a patient hitter. It’s a little like Valencia. Six weeks of subnormal walk rates doesn’t change my opinion that he’s a patient hitter. I’ll look at his other five stops in the minors to dampen my pessimism about his batting eye..
One other thing to note about Sickels. He’s an avowed Twins fan. Normally, this might mean he’s inclined to overrate Twins prospects. But I think it has the opposite effect. He’s so concerned with overrating them, that he tends to look for reasons to underrate them.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Oct 20, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought Sickels explained himself pretty well re: Bromberg
In the comments section:
scouting reports I have (and what I saw in the Midwest League in ’08) indicate average stuff in the sense of velocity and movement. But he changes speed so well that he has the component ratios of a power pitcher.
Seems pretty reasonable to me.
by Mike I on Oct 20, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah,
He’s not saying he’s getting lucky or something, just that his raw stuff isn’t as good as his k rate indicates, which lowers his ceiling somewhat.
by lookatthosetwins on Oct 20, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The other weird one is Salcedo
Several “pitchability” guys had better numbers at higher levels than Salcedo. Hermsen and Bromberg are the most notable. I wouldn’t even rank Salcedo in the top 20.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Oct 21, 2009 12:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I know this is just habit
but for Revere’s comparisons did he just think of three black outfielders?
by wcooley on Oct 21, 2009 8:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
?!?
He didn’t say Reggie Jackson or Sammy Sosa or Torii Hunter or Gary Ward or Jacques Jones.
He was talking about High-BA/Low-SLG guys with speed.
by DavidRF on Oct 21, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but wcooley has a point
He could have said Brett Gardner or Craig Biggio. Lofton was a high OBP guy.
by DJL44 on Oct 21, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
the best case is he develops that and a modicum of power. One guy he could wind up similar to is Scott Podsednik.
by Eric in Madison on Oct 21, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pods
Pods would be great, but people forget that he didn’t just steal bases with speed. He gets the best jumps on the planet. That’s why he still steals them, and is losing his speed.
Speaking of which – did anyone catch Torii’s steal the other night? I must have seen him get picked off a dozen times on the Twins with that move, but it was hilarious how good of a jump he got this time. Picked the right pitch.
Also – I would hope that Revere becomes a much better defender than Pods.
by snolls on Oct 24, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
Gardner’s a decent comp. Gardner’s still an unknown quantity though. We’re not sure if he’s a success or bust or in between.
In the minors, Biggio was a C with decent SLG’s. Compare Juan Pierre’s number in Asheville in 1999 (.320/.366/.390) to Biggio’s Asheville numbers in 1987 (.375/???/.597). Lofton was listed as a ceiling… what would happen if Revere could walk 70+ times a year. Gathright hit .334/.408/.365 and .331/.389/.381 at ages 22 and 23 in the minors. Looked like Revere does now, but he’s 28 now and hasn’t panned out. Podsednik is a possibility, but he never hit well for average in the minors.
I guess my point is that its hard enough to find comps for a guy like Revere, but once we get some decent ones, we have to check them for ethic diversity? There’s no race column at bb-reference for me to sort on :-).
by DavidRF on Oct 21, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Media
It is just a habit the media falls into. For instance, how many standout white forwards are the “next Larry Bird”? And then I see them play, and their game does not resemble Larry Legend in the least.
by wcooley on Oct 21, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But I didn't have a problem with his comps....
What’s wrong with Lofton-ceiling/Gathright-floor? Lofton’s a bit of a dream scenario, but that’s what ceilings are.
I’m all for complaining about ridiculous skin-color comparisons a la your Larry Bird example, but its not like he’s comparing Revere to David Ortiz or Prince Fielder. It’d be one thing if he chose bad comps, but he didn’t! It just seems gratuitous to bring up a race issue here. Like you’re upset with lazy basketball scouts and taking it out on Sickels.
(oops on the reply fail)
by DavidRF on Oct 24, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe you're right
but I would argue that he injected race into the discussion with the three black outfielders.
At least he didn’t compare him to Ray Durham like earlier scouts did. They don’t even play the same position!
by wcooley on Oct 26, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One of them
Wasn’t Tim Raines either.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Oct 22, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Overall
I’m no expert, but from reading Roger and others it appears that the Twins’ farm system is a mile wide but only an inch deep. Lots of solid players, but very few high ceiling guys.
by wcooley on Oct 21, 2009 8:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That seems to be my impression too.
Worries me a bit for how this team will be in a few years
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Oct 21, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's accurate
Except for the 2008 and 2009 drafts and international signings, the Twins’ system is full of C+ guys, and those 2009 guys don’t have enough playing time to be ranked higher. Next year, the Twins will have many more B, B+, and A- guys. Based on upside, I’d rate them this way:
1. Gibson: A
2. Sano: A-
3. Ramos: B+
4. Hicks: B+
5. Revere B
6. Valencia B
7. Bullock: B-
8. Tootles: B-
9 Kepler; B-
10. Morales: B-
11. Gutierrez B-
12. Bromberg B-
13. Benson: B-
_________________
about 12 C+ guys
_____________
About 15 C guys
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Oct 21, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That list isn't bad at all C-Math (based on upside)
If I did the Twins for Sickles’ site I’d rate ’em this way in 2010.
1. Aaron Hicks B+
2. Wilson Ramos B
3. Kyle Gibson B
4. Ben Revere B
5. Miguel Angel Sano B-
6. Danny Valencia B-
7. David Bromberg B-
8. Angel Morales B-
9. Chris Parmelee B-/ C+ (can’t make up my mind)
10. Anthony Slama B-/C+
11. Rene Tosoni C+
12. Joe Benson C+
13. Deolis Guerra C+
14. Carlos Gutierrez C+
15. Alex Burnett C+
16. Matt Bashore C+
17. Adrian Salcedo C+
18. Ty Robertson C+/C
19. Daniel Rams C+/C
20. Billy Bullock C+
21. Steven Tolleson C
22. BJ Hermson C
23. Michael McCardell C
24. Steven Singleton C
25. Rob Delaney C
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 21, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He could have said Brett Butler upside and Jason Tyner downside
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Oct 21, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not uncommon
Most minor league systems are only an inch deep. I’ll take the mile wide along with our inch deep.
by DJL44 on Oct 21, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, though even Radcliff (I think)
was recently lamenting the lack of high ceiling guys in the system. That, I think, was part of the impetus toward some of the bigger dollar signings this year.
by Eric in Madison on Oct 21, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes
Part of the TR cheapness dictated that we should draft not just on talent but signability. A lot of signable guys end up as C+ prospects. The last two years, under BS, we’ve drafted the best player, and still signed him by paying market rates, or a little above.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Oct 21, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hindsight
When did the Twins have a markedly better minor league system? Mauer’s a once in a lifetime chance you get by drafting 1st. High upside guys come along only so often and tend not to last long in the minors.
by DJL44 on Oct 21, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, we actually discussed this in a thread over the summer if memory
serves, but there was a time when Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, and some others were all in the minor league system.
Of course a Mauer is a true rarity, but it isn’t really about that, it’s about players who profile as average + starters. It’s at least arguable that nobody who played in the system in 2009 meets that standard. It’s hard to say. There are guys who might become that.
Look, as much as I complain sometimes about how they do things, it’s hard to argue with a system that has produced Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, Garza, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins, Crain, Neshek, Span, and whoever else I’m missing in this decade.
The Twins develop well, and they generally draft pretty well. Their major league success this decade has lowered their draft position, which has limited the opportunities to draft true high ceiling players.
by Eric in Madison on Oct 21, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
drafting at 20+ is different than top ten. Though it never seems to help the Pirates.
The Rays, on the other hand, have had plenty of can’t miss guys. Too bad the Twins ended up with “can’t take a pitch” Delmon.
by wcooley on Oct 21, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hey!
back off my Pirates! Tony Sanchez is a star in the making. Or else a huge reach.
by Milt on Tilt on Oct 21, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
part of our success
in developing a deep farm system is all the extra chances to draft players as our players leave via FA. Drafting is a crapshoot, but if you get 3 to 5 picks in the first 2 rounds, it helps your odds…
Doofenschmirtz Evil, INC.
Phineas and Ferb
by doofus on Oct 21, 2009 11:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Top talent
I have to preface this by saying that I didn’t track prospects until 4 or 5 years ago, so I don’t really know how our system looked back then, without the benefit of hindsight.
My impression is that few teams (except the money short, losing organizations: Rays, Marlins, Expos.) regularly have high ceiling guys who are major league ready. Most teams get one or two every few years. The twins had a good crop come up over a couple of years with Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Baker, Kubel, plus the guys who came from outside, like Liriano and Santana, Santana was luck, and to get more Lirianos, (or do what the expos used to do), we have trade our top talent, which we obviously don’t want to do.
I also doubt that Cuddyer and Morneau were A- type guys.
My point is that we have the wide pool, but our talent is mostly at low levels. The problem is that we don’t know which ones will be the performers. I’d predict that out of Morales, Hicks, Gibson, Revere, Ramos, Tosoni, Guttierez, etc., we will have at least 2 or 3 significantly above average major league players. They don’t get B+/A- rankings until they show that kind of potential at AAA, and of the AAA crowd, some B- guys will impress, and some A- guys will disappoint. Our main problem is the lack of upside that will be ready in 2010 or ’11.
For that, the team needs to decide between three general paths: (a) buy FA talent (takes money away from something else, like future prospects), (b) trade our low level guys for guys who are ready, or © do nothing. Hope that your AAA guys surprise, and know that you will have a good bet at a resurgence in 2-3 years.
I vote for ©. I say, take our money, spend it on Mauer and an mid-level infielder. Give all of your borderline AAA talent (Valencia, every infielder in the system, Delaney, Slama, Duensing, etc.) a chance to impress. In 3 years we’ll have Mauer/Morneau/Kubel at 30 years old, hopefully a few pitchers will be reliable, and our next wave of cheap talent exploding onto the scene (I hope).
by snolls on Oct 24, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Its a system......
You hope Mauer plays for at least 7 more years. Ramos will be 28 at that time, and if the Twins keep him…using up another year or two of options in the minors, he might just be hitting his stride to be big.
You hope that when Young and Gomez become to expensive, and Cuddyer too old, you have guys in the wings. Tosoni. Morales. Hicks. Revere. Benson. Looks good for cheap outfield replacements the next few years…afetr the prospects spend a bit more seasoning in the minors.
Baker has a contract. Next year, Slowey and Blackburn get arbitration. ANotehr couple of eyars, some guys become free-agents. Swarzak and Duensing might be full-time starters in 2011. There’s a ncie crop coming up for 2012-13-14.
Lots of talent in the bullpen. I kinda shudder that the Twins could potentially spend $20+ million on the bullpen this year. It’s ncie to have GREAT guys (Rauch, Guerrier, Crain) out there, but at $2+ million a crack?
Its a system. The Twins need to do a bit better job of figuring out players that MIGHT not work into their plans, rather than letting them walk (i.e. Restovich, Romero, Oeltjen, Garrett Jones for example). They have to risk losing a talent (how did Smith let Garza go…okay, he got a #1 from the Rays in exchange). The joy is that every year you maybe have 50 new bodies thrown in the mix, and 50 disappearing. It’s trying to identfy some of those disappearing 50 and getting something in return, rather than just watching them totally walk into the sunset.
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
by rosterman on Oct 29, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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