Twins Finale(?) Simulation
I used my simulator to simulate 50000 baseball games between the Royals and Twins using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. For your viewing pleasure I have also listed a few other games of local interest.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 0900 PST)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | AccuScore |
| KC | MIN | L.Hochevar vs C.Pavano |
MIN | 65.87% | 62.00% | 56% |
Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas has the Twins as a strong favorite winning almost 2 out of 3 times. Meanwhile my simulator backs off a little on the Twins chances of winning, but still have them as a solid favorite. AccuScore seems to be the outlier here, only giving the Twins a 56% chance of winning.
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Top 20 Most Likely Scores |
|
| 1 | MIN 3-2 |
| 2 | MIN 4-3 |
| 3 | MIN 5-4 |
| 4 | MIN 2-1 |
| 5 | MIN 4-2 |
| 6 | MIN 6-5 |
| 7 | KC 3-2 |
| 8 | KC 4-3 |
| 9 | MIN 3-1 |
| 10 | MIN 5-3 |
| 11 | MIN 5-2 |
| 12 | MIN 4-1 |
| 13 | KC 5-3 |
| 14 | KC 2-1 |
| 15 | KC 5-4 |
| 16 | KC 4-2 |
| 17 | MIN 5-1 |
| 18 | KC 3-1 |
| 19 | KC 5-2 |
| 20 | MIN 6-3 |
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Game Pitching Results |
||
| Pitcher | WHIP | FIP |
| L.Hochevar | 1.393 | 3.977 |
| C.Pavano | 1.157 | 3.34 |
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.
| Simulation Lineups | ||
| 1 | W.Bloomquist | D.Span |
| 2 | M.Maier | O.Cabrera |
| 3 | B.Butler | J.Mauer |
| 4 | M.Jacobs | J.Kubel |
| 5 | A.Callaspo | M.Cuddyer |
| 6 | M.Teahan | D.Young |
| 7 | M.Olivo | B.Harris |
| 8 | A.Gordon | M.Tolbert |
| 9 | Y.Betancourt | N.Punto |
0 recs |
9 comments
Comments
Thanks Xei
Using my WAR spreadsheet I also got us at .56, but I have to think Accuscore and your simulator would be better. I’m sure the real trouble is trying to predict Hochevar. A player with such a small sample will cause a large variance in the predictions.
by lookatthosetwins on Oct 4, 2009 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does your WAR spreadsheet take things into consideration like L/R splits, HFA, park factors?
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 4, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
HFA and park factors
but no L/R splits right now. Next year I’ll have more of that stuff. Do you use standard L/R splits or the player’s actual splits?
by lookatthosetwins on Oct 4, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actual splits regressed (depends on # of ABs) fairly aggressively towards league average.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 4, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why even play the game?
Let’s let a computer tell us who won.
And, BTW, you can’t simulate things like Trey Hillman leaving in a flunky left-hander to pitch to Cuddyer in the 8th inning of tie-game. If I were Detroit, that’s almost worth filing a league protest over.
by Old Twins Cap on Oct 4, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why such opposition?
Trying to predict who will win a baseball game is a fun exercize. Noone’s trying to say that we shouldn’t play the game and just have to computer do it.
by lookatthosetwins on Oct 4, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hmmm.....
…we shouldn’t play the game and just have to computer do it.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Over? Did you say 'over'? Nothing is over until we decide it is!" -John "Bluto" Blutarsky
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Oct 4, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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