Twins Finale(?) Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 50000 baseball games between the Royals and Twins using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  For your viewing pleasure I have also listed a few other games of local interest.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 0900 PST)


Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
KC MIN L.Hochevar vs C.Pavano
MIN 65.87% 62.00% 56%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts...  Vegas has the Twins as a strong favorite winning almost 2 out of 3 times.  Meanwhile my simulator backs off a little on the Twins chances of winning, but still have them as a solid favorite.  AccuScore seems to be the outlier here, only giving the Twins a 56% chance of winning.




Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 MIN 3-2
2 MIN 4-3
3 MIN 5-4
4 MIN 2-1
5 MIN 4-2
6 MIN 6-5
7 KC 3-2
8 KC 4-3
9 MIN 3-1
10 MIN 5-3
11 MIN 5-2
12 MIN 4-1
13 KC 5-3
14 KC 2-1
15 KC 5-4
16 KC 4-2
17 MIN 5-1
18 KC 3-1
19 KC 5-2
20 MIN 6-3


Game Pitching Results

Pitcher WHIP FIP
L.Hochevar 1.393 3.977
C.Pavano 1.157 3.34


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 W.Bloomquist D.Span
2 M.Maier O.Cabrera
3 B.Butler J.Mauer
4 M.Jacobs J.Kubel
5 A.Callaspo M.Cuddyer
6 M.Teahan D.Young
7 M.Olivo B.Harris
8 A.Gordon M.Tolbert
9 Y.Betancourt N.Punto

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