Trade Value Calculator
by Jon Kammerer on Nov 11, 2009 11:00 PM EST
11 comments
This is the time of year where everyone hopes to trade unwanted Twins for unwanted all stars. How much are some Twins worth? More than I thought. How much are some stars worth? Less than I thought. The trade value calculator is based on the idea that a team should be willing to trade assets equal to a players value minus his salary. This is why Joe Nathan is going nowhere. He is a good player being paid exactly what he's worth.
Prospect valuations courtesy of Victor Wang and 2009 Hardball Times. Prospect Rankings courtesy of John Sickles and Baseball America. Trade Value spreadsheet courtesy of Sky Kalkman at Beyond the Boxscore
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| Based on the above estimates a trade for Uggla or Phillips could be based around Perkins plus. Johnson or Halladay would require one of Revere, Ramos, Hicks plus some C level pitchers with upside. Alexi Casilla has no trade value unless someone is gambling on his 2008 showing. Here is John Sickles latest top 20 for the twins http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/10/19/1091423/top-20-minnesota-twins-prospects. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Feel free to use your own WAR estimates. I was fairly conservative. I used 3 year unregressed weighted averages to estimate pitcher FIP and batter wOBA. I used 3 year regressed weighted averages for UZR. National league players were docked 0.25 WAR for not playing in the big boy league. Comments or other suggestions for trade targets welcome. |
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Thank you for showing Casilla's value
I see trades thrown a lot with Casilla in the center. He has shown nothing that would make you think he’s above replacement level, and really doesn’t have as much “upside” as is often thought. His upside is someone with an extremely empty .300 average, and even that seems doubtful.
by lookatthosetwins on Nov 12, 2009 2:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Casilla is only tradeable in a salary dump
If they get another infielder worth exactly what they’re being paid, then a straight up trade for Casilla makes sense.
by DJL44 on Nov 12, 2009 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure this works
I understand your trade calculator but I think it only works if baseball front offices follow it (or something similiar) and it doesn’t calculate demand. Maybe your trade calculator says Revere and Bromberg = Johnson but if I was a FL fan, I’d kill my GM for making that trade.
by Gunnarthor on Nov 12, 2009 10:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
The calculator only calculates the average surplus value of a player. Value minus cost. So if you’re trading decent pre-arb players or highly rated prospects the surplus value is very high due to the time spent at the league minimum. Just because the values match up does not make it a good trade for both teams. For instance, it wouldn’t help the Twins to trade for Victor Martinez even though he has a lot of surplus value as he wouldn’t have anywhere to play. Glen Perkins would have little value to a team that had 5 SP all at least as good.
The other factor is where the team is in the win cycle. It makes tons of sense for teams like the Pirates, Royals, and Reds to try to dump salary and get younger because they are long shots to make the playoffs. Teams like the Marlins and Jays are tougher to read because they are above average teams. I think the only prospect those teams would want to center a trade around would be Ramos, who may be ready to play in the bigs soon.
by Jon Kammerer on Nov 12, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
David DeJesus
2010 3 WAR, 2011 2.8 WAR. Value 26M. Contract 11M. Surplus 15M + 2M as a type B free agent. Certainly a worthwhile target assuming the cost is palatable.
by Jon Kammerer on Nov 12, 2009 1:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
YES.
Exactly what I’ve been trying to tell people! Perkins+Young!
by Jesse on Nov 12, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Keppel + Young!
We would be trading with Dayton Moore, after all. Just tell him Keppel won Game 163!
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Nov 12, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Josh Johnson is clearly the cream of the crop
as far as this list is concerned. The question is who we would have to give up to get him.
by Adam Peterson on Nov 12, 2009 3:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Liriano and Delmon
A rough rule of thumb is that 3 years of arbitration will cost 60% of a players value. For Liriano, using a 3 year weighted average of his FIP, gives a WAR of 1.6 to 2 depending on the number of innings projected. Assuming 5.4 WAR over the next 3 years his surplus value is 9M.
Delmon has a current projection of 0WAR. If you project him as a below average regular his surplus is 5.4M. If you project him as an average regular his surplus is 10M. I don’t think a higher projection would be reasonable unless he shows dramatic improvement on defense.
by Jon Kammerer on Nov 13, 2009 10:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's sad to say
that Delmon getting up to 0 WAR would be an improvement over the last two years.
by Adam Peterson on Nov 14, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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