30 Cents on the Dollar = 2B Indifference

by doofus on Nov 17, 2009 8:43 AM EST Comment 25 comments

The Twins are talking to Cabrera about playing 2b next year and the blogosphere seems to be united against them doing that. Why? If the Twins can sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal in the 3-5 million per season contract, wouldn’t that be cheaper than signing Placido Palanco. I am not advocating that Cabrera is better by any means as he clearly is not. But how much of a down grade is he really. I ask this cause I read on a blog how Cabrera has a .322 OBP for his career and Polanco has a .331 OBP and is so much better suited for the number two spot in the lineup. Well lets take a look at their career lines and last 3 seasons and make comparisons.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5900

Last 3 years	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	LAA	155	638	101	192	35	1	8	86	44	64	20	4	.301	.345	.397	.742
2008	CWS	161	661	93	186	33	1	8	57	56	71	19	6	.281	.334	.371	.705
2009	MIN	59	242	42	69	13	3	5	36	11	32	2	0	.285	.309	.426	.735
2009	OAK	101	414	41	116	23	0	4	41	25	39	11	4	.280	.318	.365	.683
Career		1732	6618	882	1817	410	32	114	761	469	635	197	49	.275	.322	.398	.719

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6049

Last 3 years

Team

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formatting all goofed up

cant see the last set of numbers or anything below? Was there any analysis?

by montanatwinsfan on Nov 17, 2009 12:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Numbers are wrong

Polanco has a .348 OBP for his career, last year was a low of .331 and over the last three years it’s been .356. Polanco also plays very good defense. Last year Polanco was hurt early but from June to the end of the year he put up his .346 OBP. He’s a good risk.

by Gunnarthor on Nov 17, 2009 12:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

I’d rather pay a couple of extra million for him, or stick with what we have.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 17, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

On second thoght

It’s not just the dollars, though. It’s the draft pick. My top choice is Filipe Loez because he will not cost a first rounder and should probably be cheaper in dollars than either of those guys.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 17, 2009 1:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Am I the only one that can't see what the end of your statement is?

Formatting is really weird.

by fischean on Nov 17, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I cannot see

the end of the comments either! Jesse!?!?!

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 17, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tigers almost certainly won't

Offer Polanco arb. They don’t want him at the price arbitration will bring. They have a hotshot (Sizemore?) playing in the AFL and they already have a bunch of huge contracts hanging over their heads.

If the Tigers lose their minds and offer arb., Polanco would be a fool not to accept it.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 18, 2009 9:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

What is he already has a multiyear offer?

GMs aren’t stupid. They talk to the agents. Agents are predisposed to tell them about
other offers, or mere proposals. That’s their leverage. If the Tigers found out that another
team is interested in a multiyear deal, the draft picks might be too hard to resist.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 18, 2009 10:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If polanco DOES have a multiyer offer on the table – His agent wouldn’t tell the tigers about it because he wouldn’t want arb. screwing it up.

If he DOESN’T – then he might make up an offer so the DO offer him arbitration, thinking he might be better off that way. Either way, I don’t think they can take what the agent says too seriously.

Offering him arbitration would be a pretty big risk for a team that seems to be trying to cut payroll anyway they can.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 18, 2009 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Twins have offere every free agnet arbitration

Including Hunter, Guardado and Hawkins, when they had no intention of resigning them.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 19, 2009 9:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Difference

The Twins could afford to pay those guys if they accepted arbitration, and those
guys knew they would get more on the open market. Neither is true for Polanco.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 19, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No

The Twins could not afford to pay them. Hunter would have made $18 million
in arbitration. Guardado and Hawkins would have been huge budget breakers.
They were already on the breaking point of their budget. They knew they could
not afford them and they still offered arbitration, knowing full well that the
players would not accept it.

That’s my point. Teams routinely offer guys arbitration without the budget
or the intention of ever having them back. They do it to harvest draft picks. It’s
a small risk for a huge gain.

That said, if the Tigers decline arbitration, he’d be my first choice. So I expect
the Twins to take a wait-and-see approach, as will other teams, and sign
the best guy available who will not cost a draft pick.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 19, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hunter's contract

The Twins didn’t re-sign Hunter because they didn’t want to commit to more
than four years, not because they couldn’t afford to pay him that year -
supposedly they had deals on the table that were in the neighborhood of
what he got from the Angels annually (well, within a couple million) but not
nearly as long. They ended up way under budget that year, although the
Santana trade factored into that, too.

You’re right that it is a small risk for Detroit; if they don’t offer him arbitration,
that’s likely a pretty troubling sign for the financial health of the TIgers.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 19, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The point is

that Hunter was absolutely not going to take arbitration, he was going to test the market. There was virtually no risk in offering it to him.

Looking at what someone like Hudson got testing the free market last year, I think Polanco would accept if its offered. I’m just not sure the Tigers can afford to take that risk.

It’s really all speculation, I just think its a very different situation, with the depressed market.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 20, 2009 3:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Arbitration......

If you take arbitration, you might score a better than decent contract for a season, but still have to play well, again, for a shot at free agency gold. If you get hurt, sit on the bench…whatever…you might diminish your chances.

Sometimes, a one-year might work to an advantage (like Pavano, or even Crede)…you can make what you did in the rpevious year and possibly some more).

But if you want a multi-year contract, you have to go frree agent.

Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!

by rosterman on Nov 20, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh I definitely agree with that

In someone like Orlando Hudson’s case, though, he might get about the same amount of money in one year of arbirtration that he’d get in a 2 year deal. Especially considering that if he is offered arbitration, that would make his stock go down on the free agent market.

One thing I don’t understand is why teams are so apposed to signing a type A FA who was offered arbitration. They lose a pick, but very likely will get a pick back when free agency comes up again. (Twins geek blogged about this a while ago). This may not work with hudson or polanco, as they may not qualify as type A’s in a couple years, but certainly would with some of the younger free agents.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 20, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The formatting inside this post is completely f'd up.

I can’t fix it.

Doofus—I’ll give you a couple of hours to see if you can nail this down, but I’ll have to delete it if you can’t. Sorry dude.

by Jesse on Nov 17, 2009 2:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Plus

Polanco is actually a second baseman

by ckb on Nov 17, 2009 2:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

cabrera

I’m not sure the Twins are actually talking to him… I think it was something Gardy asked for and (hopefully) wont’ get. Cabrera is passable at the plate and is bad in the field. I’d rather get Lopez or Polanco in a heart beat. I’m guessing this may be addressed by trade. They are still looking to move some pieces (Perkins in particular) and could probably do that as part of a package for Uggla or Phillips… I’d rather have either of those.

by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 17, 2009 2:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It is sounding

like Bill Smith is actually talking to Cabrera, at least according to the Chicago papers.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 17, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't know how that happened

Sorry bout that. I’ll try to rewrite the post tonight and repost it tomorrow. I was basically comparing Cabrera and Polanco offensively and note that there isn’t a huge difference between the 2 but the cost difference could be up to 8 to 10 million in guarenteed money which allows us to get a starting pitcher……..

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by doofus on Nov 17, 2009 5:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm with CMath...

Felipe Lopez is the best 2b choice for my money. Younger, has played 2b, quite possibly CHEAPER, and much, much better offensively. A perfect #2 hitter.

by DJSkillz on Nov 17, 2009 8:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs