Howard Sinker Fixes the Twins

Check out Howard's blog from this morning where he names a trio of free agent additions that would help the Twins be a better team without totally busting the bank.

2B: Felipe Lopez
3B: Pedro Feliz
SP: Ben Sheets

2 months ago Jesse 39 comments 0 recs |

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Except if the Twins were willing to spend the money I’d rather see them get Pavano instead of Feliz mostly because we all know the Twins are going to start Punto somewhere. Punto still provides good defense at 3B and when, not if, he falters at the plate hopefully Valencia will be ready to come up.

I’d love a rotation of

Baker
Sheets
Pavano
Slowey
Blackburn

that and lots of depth. The Twins could even use some of their other starters (Bonser, Perkins, Liriano, Swarzak, Duensing) to bolster the farm system or make a trade at the deadline.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Nov 19, 2009 3:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'd take

Duensing in the rotation…but he’ll be in it within the first two months after Sheets would get hurt

Percy Harvin is my dealer.

by y2jayjk on Nov 19, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

IF Punto must start, it should be at second.

But second might also be the easiest position to upgrade on the FA market. It’s a tough call.

by Jesse on Nov 19, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Punto has much better UZR numbers at third

Now, saying that, none of his positions have a large enough sample to make any definitive claims, but even regressing to his overall UZR, you have to assume he’s a better defender at third. I honestly don’t think it makes a huge difference whether he starts at second or third.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 19, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Defensively, sure.

But with a bat in his hands, he’s a better 2B.

by Jesse on Nov 19, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ok who would you rather have

It really doesn’t matter where he’ playing it’ the other player if it’s Lopez vs. Feliz I take lopez. If it’s Beltre vs. Lopez I might still take Lopez as he fits the #2 hitter mold that we need. I also take Hudson over those two most of the time.

Plus the fact that Valencia is waiting in the wings to take over makes it more likely to turn Punto back to a utility player. Where as at 2nd base there isn’t a strong replacement candidate

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Nov 19, 2009 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In those scenarios,

I’d take Lopez over Feliz, because if Punto HAS to play then I’m choosing the better player. If it’s Beltre VS Lopez, I’d probably go with Beltre…although I wouldn’t complain either way. Beltre doesn’t solve the #2 batter issue, but he’s a superior defender and will hopefully rebound with the bat.

That’s why in the Lopez VS Feliz situation it’s a hard call. In wanting the better player you’re moving Punto to his weaker position.

by Jesse on Nov 19, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yah but you can't get caught up in traditional roles in this scenario

I’m just making the assumption that Bill and Gardy had a talk and Gardy let him know that Punto will be starting somewhere. So I’m not even looking at where Punto is playing but which player helps the team overall so yah it really isn’t Punto vs. anybody. It’s the fact that he will be in the lineup and we’re looking at all the other guys.

So in all reality it’s Beltre vs. Feliz vs. Hudson vs. Lopez vs. Crede vs. Polanco etc. . . .

I think the best values are going to be found at 2B, especially if Polanco and/or Hudson aren’t offered arbitration the the market is flooded with above average 2B and the price ought to be driven down.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Nov 19, 2009 7:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jesse, I'm not sure that makes any sense

What matters are 3 things -

How good his defense is – probably similar, but evidence points to better at 3rd.

How good his offense is – same either way

How good the replacement is – This is the key…

If we find a second basemen who is similar offensively to a third basemen we could sign, it doesn’t really matter. If you can get Felipe Lopez (proj. .330 wOBA) or Mark DeRosa (proj .328 wOBA) for the same price, assuming (this is a poor assumption) that they are both average defensively and will not get injured, which one would you take? Do you take DeRosa so that Punto can play second? Why would you? You basically have the same total offensive value, and your defense probably got a little bit worse by shifting punto from third to second.

Or do you think that the third basemen would come cheaper? That may be, but I doubt it.

I don’t buy into the “his bat doesn’t play at third” argument. His bat is the same no matter where he plays. If he shifts to an easier position (and I would argue that third is not an easier position than second) his defense will get better, and his offense will get worse, relative to the average person at that position. This will basically constitute a wash in overall value.

And while it seems that you should get more offense out of a third basemen than a second basemen, that’s not really true. Third basemen hit a whole 15 OPS points higher than second basemen last year. Thats about 3 or 4 runs over the course of a season. When you consider that the second basemen are probably better basestealers and baserunners, it most likely comes out to a wash. Any studies showing the defensive value of the two positions have come out as them being equally hard.

If we sign one infielder, it should be the best infielder we can get for our money, regardless of position.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 19, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I think this exchange is highlighting one of the weaknesses of attempts to compare players using VORP-style metrics – those measurements measure value, not ability. Alex Rodriguez loses a decent amount of VORP every year simply because he was traded to a team that already had a shortstop – had he stayed in Texas, he’d be compared to weaker-hitting shortstops instead of third basemen.

As another analogy to go with the above post, imagine if the Yankees decided that Jeter was better at third and A-Rod was better at short. They wouldn’t avoid switching them just because they want the better hitter at third base; they’d do what produced the most total value with the players they had (this is in a world where the Yanks don’t have the irrational attachment to “The Captain” playing short). Similarly, the Twins shouldn’t avoid putting Punto at third solely because he doesn’t hit well enough – if you have a good second baseman and the Tolbert-Punto-Harris utility corps, you start Nick Punto at third base.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 20, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I used to hate the thought of Punto starting

Now I think it’s OK. After all, he’ll suck for the first two months of the season and Valencia will shine at Rochester and the Twins will be forced to promote Valencia and send Punto to the bench.

Then again, maybe I’m just irrationally optimistic to think that Punto will always play himself into a bench role. After all. what other player in baseball is afforded his manager’s expressed preference for him to start after deliberately defying his manager’s wishes 32 times?! (Punto slid into first base 32 times in 2009. Gardy expressly forbid him for doing so at the beginning of the year. Even after he hurt himself doing so and was called out by his manager as “reckless” for doing so, he slid into first three times at the end of the year.)

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 21, 2009 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not a tough call

Punto must not start. Lopez should.

I’m not as high on Feliz. Though I do like his glove, it has slipped considerably the last two years—not enough to overcome his bat, which has hovered around a .700 OPS the last two years. I figure Harris could give us at least that. Any third baseman we get has to pass the Harris test.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 19, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd project him higher than harris

But yeah, probably not enough to sign more than a couple mil. Remember that Harris will be getting a raise this year, so we could non-tender him in order to sign someone like Feliz. In reality, doing that would probably be a wash overall.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 19, 2009 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I saw this article

prior to its posting here. However, I have one objection to this. Pedro Feliz!?

Crede will cost less and provide a better bat and better glove (at least when he is healthy). I would rather take the additional money that we may have after getting Lopez and Sheets and use it towards Crede for another $1-2 million base plus incentives.

Punto plays at 3B for 4 days of the 7 day week with Crede playing in 3 days. This should balance out the Gardy’s love of Punto while providing Twins fans with some relief with Crede. On the days that Punto plays in the field, and if Crede feels well, then he could possibly be a DH option for the Twins in the lower part of the order.

1. Span – CF
2. Lopez – 2B
3. Mauer – C
4. Morneau – 1B
5. Cuddyer – RF
6. Kubel – DH
7. Crede – 3B
8. Hardy – SS
9. Young – LF

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 19, 2009 4:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Feliz is marginally better than Nick Punto. Worse at getting on base, more pop, not as good of glove. I’d rather sign someone like Glaus, who would be a large upgrade when healthy, and let punto/Harris play if he gets hurt. I’d like Feliz better than not signing anyone, however, because that has the added bonus of making Punto a super utility player, and putting tolbert in the minors.

I completely agree on sheets. We have decent backup options, so go with the high upside guy. 100 innings of Sheets + 100 Innings of liriano >>>>>> 200 Innings of Washburn.

I like Felipe Lopez, but if we wanted to go cheaper in order to sign a better 3b, we could sign someone like Jamey Carroll.

All in all, I’d be pretty happy with Sinker’s offseason, We’d shore up some holes on the cheap. I’d be happier, though, with Sheets, Carroll, and Glaus, and I think they would cost similar money.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 19, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The problem with the Glaus and Crede lovin' is that whole "healthy" thing.

I’m not saying Feliz is the answer either, although I’d rather have him at third than Punto. I like the Carroll option too, I championed that idea for a bit, but he’s really not a full-time guy either.

Unequivocally though, I SO agree with this: 100 innings of Sheets + 100 Innings of liriano >>>>>> 200 Innings of Washburn.

by Jesse on Nov 19, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you forget about valencia

you are correct on teh whole healthy thing, but I don’t think Valencia is going to need a full season in AAA, and I’d argue that a few 15 day cups of coffee early on in the season will be very good for his development (assuming of course Gardy plays him). Quite frankly if the choice is Pedro Feliz vs. Crede or Glaus, I’d take 100 games of above average production with 60 games of Valencia/Punto/Harris vs 160 games constant below average production. It really is teh same formula…

100 games of Crede/Glaus + 60 games of Valencia/Punto/Harris >>>>>>>>>> 160 games of Pedro Feliz.

and it’s cheaper too.

by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 20, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sinker says that Hudson would cost a draft pick

Do you think he’ll be offered arbitration? After how last year went, I think there’s a good chance he’d accept. I don’t know for sure, but I’d bet on him not being offered at all.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 19, 2009 4:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'd be surprised if they did offer arbitration actually.

So yeah, he might be a little more approachable. But if the Twins want to get an early jump on the market they might not be able to wait around to find out their respective decisions.

by Jesse on Nov 19, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Better

2B – Lopez
3B – Beltre
SP – Liriano

by DJL44 on Nov 19, 2009 4:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

God I'd love it if Liriano could pick up where he left off in '08.

by Jesse on Nov 19, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd be fine with this

the only problem is… no cushion. We are banking on Liriano AND Duensin, not to mention a healthy Slowey. Swarzak and Perkins look to be decent fillings, so it would probably work out, but it would worry me.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 19, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Feliz = Punto

The funny thing is that Nick Punto and Pedro Feliz, at third base, look like very similar players. To wit:

Career wOBA: Punto .294, Feliz .304
Career UZR/150 at 3B: Punto 19.9, Feliz 15.5

ubelmann suggests that Punto is probably more like +15.3 UZR/150 at 3B – that would make the players a notch more similar.

Fangraphs comparison of the two on offensive stats

Feliz is more consistent offensively (doesn’t have any recent horrible funks like Punto). Feliz offers some power. Punto offers better on-base skills. Feliz is older. Punto is already under contract.

Meanwhile, Crede gives you a career .320 wOBA (though only .305 last season) with a career 10.2 UZR/150 (but managed better UZR/150 numbers in 3 of the past 4 seasons).

I don’t see a significant upgrade in Feliz over Punto, except possibly for the consistency. But you have to weigh that against the increasing chances of skill collapse as Feliz gets older. Feliz’s UZR/150 numbers were 5.0 and 9.3 the last two seasons, possibly indicating that sort of defensive skill erosion.

I’d rather have Crede than Feliz, who will certainly be cheap with another 1-year deal, a little more offensive upside and a little more recent defensive success. I think Crede with Punto as the backup offers equivalent value to Feliz with maybe a little more upside in power.

by onthekubelwagen on Nov 19, 2009 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Forgot to say

I think getting a quality player at 2B is the real priority. An above average player at 2B would mean Crede/Punto at 3B would be just fine, I think.

by onthekubelwagen on Nov 19, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Even Harris/Punto would be a passable 3b option if we got a quality 2b.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 19, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

...for now

at least. In 2011, I hope that we dont see either Harris or Punto in Minnesota. There are better options out there for cheaper prices.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 19, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right

The other consideration is Valencia, who I think has a chance to play an average 3B pretty soon. Bill James projects him at .335 wOBA for 2010, which seems optimistic, but maybe he’s ready to take a look in the second half of 2010. I wouldn’t mind all that much playing Valencia+Punto at 3B from the start of the season instead of Harris+Punto, assuming no free agent 3B is signed.

But certainly it would be a bad idea to sign a contract now that would block him in 2011.

by onthekubelwagen on Nov 19, 2009 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Crede projects to be slightly better when he plays

Bill James projects .315 wOBA to .304 wOBA. Not a huge difference there, but a difference. Defensively, if you weight recent years more heavily, account for age, and regress to the mean, Crede probably comes out slightly ahead there also, something like +12 to +8.

The thing about comparing him to punto is, that he probably wouldn’t be taking Punto’s at bats as much. If you sign a 3b, that puts punto in the utility role, (assuming you also sing a 2b), where he’d be great. So he would be an upgrade, and would probably play all season, making him a wash, or more valuable than Crede.

For the same money I’d go either way, but considering Crede will probably be cheaper, he’d be the way to go.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 19, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

chone WAR

Projected OBP and SLG courtesy of baseballprojections.com. Baserunning numbers from 2009 and baseball prospectus. UZR is a 3 year weighted average regressed to the Fan Scouting Report. Cabrera is given an extra 5 runs from his projection to account for position change. Final WAR is per 600 AB, so injury risks like Crede, Glaus should be discounted some.

Name Pos OBP SLG Bases UZR WAR/600
Beltre 3B .322 .448 0.10 0.80 3.2
Glaus 3B .351 .436 -0.20 0.10 3.1
Crede 3B .317 .439 0.00 1.00 3.0
DeRosa 3B .335 .416 0.20 0.20 2.7
Polanco 2B .338 .392 0.10 0.60 2.6
Cabrera 2B .326 .372 0.50 0.60 2.2
Johnso 2B .347 .438 0.00 -0.70 2.5
Hudson 2B .342 .395 0.00 -0.30 1.9
Lopez 2B .344 .377 -0.10 0.00 1.8
Belliard 2B .313 .401 0.10 -0.10 1.4

by Jon Kammerer on Nov 19, 2009 6:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

thanks for posting

by onthekubelwagen on Nov 19, 2009 6:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

.317 OBP for Crede?

That seens a little optimistic for me. If he somehow managed 600 pa, I’d expect him in the 2-2.5 WAR range.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 19, 2009 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

zips

246/305/422 2.4WAR. Crede + Schmohawk = roughly league average. The big problem is that you can’t count on him being available for the playoffs.

by Jon Kammerer on Nov 19, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here are my back of the napkin war estimates I did a week or so ago

3b
Beltre – 3.5 WAR
Crede – 2 WAR
Glaus – 2.5 WAR
Tejada – 2.5 WAR
DeRosa – 1.5 WAR
Mora – 1.5 WAR
Uribe – 1.5 WAR

2b
Polanco – 3 WAR
Hudson – 2.5 WAR
Felipe Lopez – 2.5 WAR
Ronnie Beliard – 1.5 WAR
Kennedy – 1.5 WAR
Orlando Cabrera – 1 WAR
Brandon Phillips – 3 WAR (trade)
Kelly Johnson – 2.5 WAR (trade)
Dan Uggla – 3.5 WAR (trade)

Look pretty close, but I seem to have higher numbers than you for most of the second basemen. I think i basically took Bill James’s projections and career UZR, while making some subjective adjustments. I really think Lopez should be higher than 1.8 – why do they expect him to have a slg 23 points below his career slg, and 50 points below last years? he’s only 29.

Anyway, pretty good estimates. Shows that there’s a lot of similarity among the potential candidates. I don’t think most people would expect that the gap between Beltre and Kelly Johnson is only 7 runs. I’d be very happy if we ended up with any two of the guys on your list, except possibly Belliard.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 20, 2009 3:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

my UZR numbers

I used 3 year weighted averages of UZR. I then used tangotiger’s fanscouting report to give a rating of excellent/above average/average/below average/terrible and regressed to that. The amount of regression depended on the sample size. The methodology is described here.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/teixeira_take_2/

Bill James projections seem overly optimistic(twins 94 wins). Chone may be overly harsh (87 wins). Zips seems about right (90 wins).

by Jon Kammerer on Nov 22, 2009 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, that's definitely the best way to do it.

Basically instead of regressing to the Fan’s scouting reports (good), I regressed to my own scouting report (easy). I did the same thing for the James Projections – took some points away from a few guys, and playing time away from all of them. They came out pretty similar in overall value to yours. I got 89 wins when it was all said and done, so probably pretty decent.

If you have a spreadsheet for projected UZR and want to share, let me know…

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 23, 2009 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

how?

I’d be happy to share.

by Jon Kammerer on Nov 24, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Awesome, found the projections with that methodology

Here

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 23, 2009 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sheets, Feliz, and Lopez

If the Twins sign one pitcher, I would rather see someone who was healthy last year, or at least most of last year. To win the Central again, the Twins need more solid pitching from their starters. I just don’t think anyone can reliably predict what Sheets will do next year.

Feliz is pretty much of a know commodity at third. He will play a good 3B, not get on much and hit a few homers. He ha sbeen pretty durable of late.

Lopez looks like the best 2B for the money. This means there will be intense competition for his services. Hopefully the Twins can ink him to a reasonable contract.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 19, 2009 9:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs