Twins 2010 ZiPS Projections

Courtesy of BBTF. I have to believe both Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey will do better, and I'm hoping a number of the bullpen guys will, too.

18 days ago Jesse 10 comments 0 recs |

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Projections tend to be conservative

… and they still have Mauer hitting .336/.418/.525

by DavidRF on Nov 2, 2009 12:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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If Delmon hits 13 homers, he will be an extraordinary disappointment. Interestingly, though, they have him taking a big jump in walk rate, albeit with flat slugging.
ZiPS apparently sees Kubel’s 2009 as his career year – they’ve got him regressing to the mean quite a bit.
Liriano is an example of the limitations of projections like this – the computer doesn’t know that the Liriano of 2006 has gone the way of the dodo. They have him with an ERA under 5 and 26 starts; I see those as mutually exclusive (I think he’ll either fail as a starter or become a decent reliever).
They see a bounceback season from Harris, which I agree with – I’m not nearly as down on him offensively as others seem to be.
Lots of regression to the mean for Mauer’s pauer, which I would also expect for something like this.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 2, 2009 5:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Zips is taking Liriano’s 2006 into account at all. I think it is taking into account 2008. I still think Liriano is as likely to be the Twins best starter in 2010 (if he gets a spot) as anyone, though it’s clear he won’t be winning Cy young awards.

Mauer almost certainly will regress, which makes shoring up the weak positions that much more important.

by Eric in Madison on Nov 2, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

An ERA just under 5 is pretty mediocre these days. Those are 4th starter type of numbers.

Mauer’s projection is the best I’ve seen from Zips so far. I haven’t seen Pujols yet, and I’m sure he beats it, but an OPS+ of 148 is quite amazing considering the amount of regression built in. Projections never attempt to predict the outlier seasons, those numbers from a catcher are almost outliers already.

Kubel’s great year didn’t enough attention, in my opinion. OPS+ of 143 beats any of Morneau’s seasons. I think its reasonable for the model to expect regression from that. You have to have two great years in a row to convince a projection system like this that you’ll keep up that level.

by DavidRF on Nov 2, 2009 6:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+2

It’s projecting Liriano to become Doug Davis

by DJL44 on Nov 3, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Harris.......

I think you can pretty much guess what Harris will give you. The problem is finding a place you are comfortable playing him on the field. His numbers seem to digress if he isn’t playing regularly. But is he a worthwhile third baseman, or shortstop, or second baseman? Depends on who is on his right or left.

Mauer will shine depending on who’s in front of him. Seemed to do best when he batted second, because Span WAS getting better pitches. The Twins playing who they often did in the second slot, did a disservice to both Mauer and Span. The league quickly discovered that Morneau and Kubel were scary followers of Mauers, even Cuddyer wasn’t a sure out anymore.

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by rosterman on Nov 3, 2009 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Question

Does anybody have the predicitions for ‘09? I presume Mauer, Kubel, Cuddyer and Span exceeded expectations and everyone else didn’t.

On the pitching side, I suppose everyone but Guerrier and Mijares were below their predictions.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 2, 2009 8:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Fangraphs has them...

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zips

There might be a way to get an xls file with them

by DavidRF on Nov 2, 2009 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2009 ZIPS

Mauer .313/.403/.452
Redmond .284/.326/.327
Morneau .297/.370/.523
Tolbert .251/.300/.354
Cabrera .283/.333/.385
Punto .255/.322/.344
Buscher .270/.329/.396
Crede .250/.303/.416
Harris .261/.325/.400
Cuddyer .265/.345/.433
Span .270/.337/.369
Gomez .258/.304/.369
Young .291/.331/.423
Kubel .273/.335/.468

by DavidRF on Nov 2, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs