Twins Offensive Leaders, 2009

by Jesse on Nov 2, 2009 6:51 AM EST in By the Numbers Comment 26 comments

2008 incarnation
2007 incarnation

I always like doing this at the end of the year, because there are always a few surprises. Plus, it's good to not do a lot of heavy reading on a Monday morning...

Name	Runs Created	Name	P/PA
J. Mauer	123	B. Buscher	4.26
D. Span	100	N. Punto	4.22
J. Kubel	95	J. Mauer	4.19
J. Morneau	91	J. Kubel	4.05
M. Cuddyer	89	D. Span	3.91
Name	Line Drive %	Name	BABIP
B. Buscher	26.5	J. Mauer	.377
J. Mauer	22.6	D. Span	.358
J. Kubel	19.6	D. Young	.344
N. Punto	19.4	J. Kubel	.332
C. Gomez	19.2	O. Cabrera	.317
Name	Isolated Power	Name	Clutch
M. Cuddyer	.245	N. Punto	4.2
J. Morneau	.242	B. Buscher	3.5
J. Kubel	.239	C. Gomez	2.1
J. Mauer	.222	A. Casilla	1.9
J. Crede	.189	D. Young	0.6
Name	Walk Rate	Name	Strikeout Rate
B. Buscher	15.0	B. Buscher	25.7
N. Punto	14.5	D. Young	23.3
J. Mauer	12.7	C. Gomez	22.9
J. Morneau	12.4	J. Kubel	20.6
D. Span	10.8	M. Cuddyer	20.1
Name	O-Zone Swing%	Name	VORP
D. Young	37.0	J. Mauer	91.0
J. Crede	31.5	J. Kubel	45.2
C. Gomez	29.9	D. Span	37.5
A. Casilla	29.5	M. Cuddyer	34.2
J. Morneau	29.4	J. Morneau	30.0

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line drive%

Do flares count as line drives? Becuase I saw Buscher hit a lot of duck snorts but not many lasers.

by wcooley on Nov 2, 2009 8:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Considering his inability to hit much of anything deep,

most of his 40% FB rate probably snags those. But they might count, because those punchless hits certainly couldn’t be classified as fly balls, either.

by Jesse on Nov 2, 2009 9:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bb-ref lists his GB/FB/LD splits at 38/44/20 (out of 102 balls, not 100 per cent). Its understandable that different sources would classify balls differently. Those look like real liners… he’s got 13 singles and 2 doubles from those.

I’d certainly count flares as line drives. “Soft liners” are hit all the time. Its a trajectory thing. If a flare gets past the infield its usually a hit.

by DavidRF on Nov 2, 2009 10:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Some of the stats are from THT,

but most of them, including the LD%, are from FanGraphs. BBRef is a great site, especially for splits and those kind of numbers, but for most of my non-traditional numbers I go to FanGraphs.

by Jesse on Nov 2, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks...

Indeed… now that I see both sites I want to some lists from one site and some lists from the other but then I run into the issue that they are based on different data. :-)

I don’t see anything wrong with the Buscher line drive data. Redmond hits a lot of line drives as well. Paradoxically, I think its because they don’t hit the ball very hard that they have to rely on line drives. Both these guys have terrible “fly ball” splits because they don’t hit the ball hard enough for them to end up being XBH. Anything they get under becomes a lazy fly ball.

by DavidRF on Nov 2, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting...

I just checked on Punto and Gomez, and both of them had lower LD% on Baseball-Reference than your numbers from FanGraphs. Gomez’s was close (18% on B-R, 19.2% on FanGraphs); Punto’s was not (15% on B-R, 19.4% on FanGraphs).

That strikes me as a pretty significant difference, especially if you’re trying to figure out whether a guy had a lucky BABIP – that’s 40 points of batting average there.

This is seriously making me question the utility of the batted ball data. I’m fine with writing Buscher’s off as a sample size issue (a few hits either way will change things), but Punto put almost 300 balls into play last year – that’s roughly three dozen balls that were categorized differently by different observers.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 2, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

FanGraphs uses data from MLB's gameday,

which is the same stuff pitchfx uses when correlating their data. I’m not sure what BBRef uses.

by Jesse on Nov 2, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It might not be that much of a problem

As long as each batted ball system is consistent in the way it judges batted ball types (it might then be the case that BBRef’s system, for example, results in less line drives being classified overall). But if you’re comparing players, you’d want to rely on just one system – consistency is obviously essential.

by Mike I on Nov 2, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, partially

I’m with you that relying on one system is necessary for comparing players, and it can still be useful for that. The problem I have is attempting to utilize the batted ball data in other contexts, like the expected BABIP I mentioned above. If they’re not consistent, at least we need to know which is more accurate, and ideally why.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 2, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also...

I realize that “accurate” is a subjective term here – there are so few categories of hits that stuff like soft flares and Texas League singles can probably be categorized differently by different people. But it would be very useful to know in more detail what causes those discrepancies, and which data is more useful in various contexts.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 2, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A plate appearance log would be nice...

Short of that, we can work backwards from players with very few AB’s. Slowey had 4 PA this year. A lineout to 2B, a GIDP to SS, a strikeout and a sacrifice bunt.

bb-ref has Slowey’s LD% at 33% while fangraphs has it at 50%. Both exclude the strikeout, but fangraphs also excludes the bunt? I don’t think that’s what we’re looking for.

FWIW, both Buscher (.750) and Redmond (.708) reach base quite frequently on their “line drives”, which is right in line with most of the rest of the time. Lasers and flares are equally effective batting-average wise. The problem with flares is that they almost never lead to extra bases and those balls become easy outs if not hit on a line.

by DavidRF on Nov 2, 2009 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, I like that

Both exclude the strikeout, but fangraphs also excludes the bunt? I don’t think that’s what we’re looking for.

This actually makes a lot of sense – a player who’s bunting can’t hit a line drive, and he’s not trying to, so it makes sense not to penalize him for it (in the same way that sacrifice bunts don’t affect your OBP, because giving up the out is intentional). It screws up shorthand calculations like the BABIP=LD%+.120, because bunt attempts are independent of that, but in general, it seems to me like it makes the data a more valid reflection of skills.

Thanks for taking the time to look into that – it’s good to see at least one reason why the data differs.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 3, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh... its a reasonable thing to do...

Just noting that it doesn’t look like the main source of the descrepancy.

by DavidRF on Nov 3, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, okay

I checked one of the other players with large discrepancies, Buscher, and he didn’t have a single bunt attempt last year, so obviously bunts aren’t it, like you said.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 3, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Take Buscher out?

Based on small sample size I wish he wasn’t a part of this.

It is nice to see that Gomez had such a high LD% does that mean he was a bit unlucky with the .229 average? How does LD% correlate to batting average? Or is it just to BABIP?

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Nov 2, 2009 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

LD correlates with BABIP

and to a lesser extent with batting average. For Gomez, his 22.9% strikeout rate contributed mostly to his low batting average. Then again, 22.9% is better than his 2008 rate of 24.6%, and Gomez’ LD% went up to 19.2% from 17.4% in 2008. So why the sharp drop in batting average from .258 to .229? Basically, a similar sharp drop in BABIP, from .332 to .288. Given the increase in LD%, I’d contribute this to (a) some bad luck, and (b) Gomez not bunting very well in 2009. He bunted less often (66 times in 2008 vs 22 times in 2009), and less effectively (30 bunt hits in 2008, 5 bunt hits last year).

by Adam Peterson on Nov 2, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LNP

Those peripherals indicate that LNP had better season than his hard numbers suggest. It makes me appreaciate his season a little more. He was the best infielder on the roster in 2009 not named Morneau.

It is unrealistic to believe that the Twins will upgrade all three infield holes. If they fill two of the voids, I am comfortable giving the reins of the third spot (regardless of position) to LNP. A .337 OBP is solid from any non-Yankee 9-hole hitter, his defense is good no matter the position and he still spun a 1.2 WAR in 2009. Ideally he’s a super-sub, but I’ll take him over any other the other incumbents to be my starter.

by PinkiePinkerton on Nov 2, 2009 11:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'd agree with you

since we have three holes to fill, I would not imagine we fill more than two (if even that) during the offseason. I’d like to see us fill SS and 2B externally, then start with LNP at 3B and see if Valencia earns his way into the lineup.

Also remember that LNP was brutal for the first 2/3 of the season. Once he picked it up (actually hit quite well down the stretch), and Cabrera gave us better production than Casilla, two of our black holes went away and let us climb back into the race, even with Morneau out.

by Adam Peterson on Nov 2, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One guy

yes, having one scrappy no-power guy who has speed and plays good defense is fine. Having three or four of those guys in the lineup day after day invites a really limited offense. The other thing about Punto—I just don’t think he can play 150 games at shortstop. He seemed to tire at the end of ’08 (as a SS) and seemed to have a hard time making throws from short before he was disabled. I like his chances to have a full season (and be productive) better at second.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 2, 2009 9:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yanks

Watching Damon last night reminded me of Punto overrunning third. It was an awfully bone-headed play. It was similar to Young and then Gomez swinging at first pitches in Game 2 in NY.

There were a lot of ifs ,but the one thing you can say is that Gardy did an awful job of managing in the post season. It’s nice to get there — but it’s different to win it. You have to make very few mental mistakes. Sure, there are going to be pitchers who throw balls out of the middle of the plate and guys are going to crush these pitches. That is different, though, than overrunning a base or having guys swing at two first pitches with the bases loaded.

It’s not just the money.

by Teo12345 on Nov 2, 2009 1:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How much of that is on Gardy?

When the players make boneheaded mistakes in the postseason? IMO, it was more a matter of the players not having their heads into the game, with a few (Nathan) peeing down their leg when they see pinstripes. How much of that is on the manager, I don’t know.

by Adam Peterson on Nov 2, 2009 7:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

little

How much of that is on Gardy?

We are talking about grown men earning a paycheck, many of whom are veterans. We are not talking about 13 and 14 year olds.

by montanatwinsfan on Nov 3, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Clutch

What does it mean?

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 2, 2009 3:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's a THT stat.

Link here, but this is their explanation:

“Clutch” is the name we’ve given to the portion of Bill James’s Runs Created formula that includes the impact of a batter’s batting average with runners in scoring position and the number of home runs with runners on. The specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on. This stat is not a definitive description of “clutch hitting,” just one way of looking at it.

by Jesse on Nov 2, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs