Jayson Stark wrote an interesting article for ESPN about baseball revenue, sharing, and payroll. It renewed my curiosity about Twins revenue, so I thought I would open it up for discussion. Below the fold, I'll make some guesses, but what I really want is for people who know more than I do to chime in on this.
According to Stark, after mandatory reductions for pension and MLB operations, each team receives something over $30 million from the central fund--that's national TV, merchandising, etc.
Local TV and radio money obviously varies a ton, but no team makes less than $15 million, and obviously the big market teams make many times this amount. Here's my first question: what are the Twins local TV and radio contracts worth? I would conservatively assume it's at least $25 million.
Revenue sharing: Stark suggests that after the poorest 5 teams get theirs (Twins not in this group), there is still $200 million to distribute to other payees. Here's my second question: how much of that goes to the Twins? I really have no idea how this works.
Gate: here's the big one. With Target Field opening, and the Twins collecting more of the money spent, how much are we talking for 2010? Not including advertising signage, naming rights, etc,. just dollars collected from fans by the Twins? How much will each person who enters leave behind? Tickets, parking, concessions (Twins share)? It's not entirely clear how many of each priced seat there is in Target Field, but I can't imagine the average customer will get out for less than $30, and that is very, very conservative. You could make reasonable assumptions that push that number past $50. If they get to 3 million fans, that's at least $90 million.
How much for other revenue sources? In stadium advertising? What else? How much is Target paying for naming rights? $10 million total for this sort of revenue?
Basically, is there a way we can reasonably figure out how much the Twins will take in? It seems to me that the number is probably somewhere between $170 and $250 million, but first of all, that's based on a lot of guessing, and second, that's a pretty wide range. Any way we can narrow that down?