Josh Johnson
by halfchest on Nov 21, 2009 12:38 AM EST
84 comments
Over at MLBTR it's been reported that talks have broken down and Josh Johnson does not want to sign an extension with the Marlins. I'm assuming that this will make him available for trade. So the question becomes what would it take to get him? I would expect at least 2 of our upper echelon prospects such as Ramos, Hicks, Revere, Morales, or Bromberg. Then I'm thinking they would likely be interested in a starter from our current squad that has a lot of time left. Maybe one or two of Perkins, Swarzak, Duensing, Bonser, or Liriano?
I guess if we're going to be at all realistic then I'm thinking the Twins could offer 2 of Ramos/Revere/Bromberg + Perkins and one of Swarzak/Bonser/Liriano/Duensing/Manship. Is this too much? not enough? Is it enough to get it done but not worth the cost? I figure if the Twins could make the trade and sign Johnson to a 3-4 year deal buying out his last two years of arbitration as well as a year or two of free agency then the trade would be worth the cost in prospects. The Twins rotations suddenly becomes very good headlined by Baker, Johnson, and Slowey. A backend of Blackburn and whoever is left/wins of the pitchers mentioned in the trade. The Twins still have some depth left and some good pitchers like Guerra, McCardell, and Gutierrez at AA next year as well as Kyle Gibson likely on the fast track to the majors if need be.
Then there's the money issue how do the Twins pay for Johnson? The money appears to be there as the Twins are apparently talking to free agents like Pavano and Washburn. If the Twins could sign Johnson to an extension that keeps his cost affordable over the next two years before it boosts into the 8 figure range as the Twins could have up to 25 million coming off the books in 2012 in the form of Nathan (option), Cuddyer, and Kubel. Hopefully someone like Neshek or another guy in the minors(Van Mil, Delaney, Slama, Burnett) could take over for Nathan at that point. Tosoni should be major league ready along with some of the younger prospects like Morales, Benson, and Hicks are knocking on the door making players like Kubel and Cuddyer expendable
There's also Johnson's injury history to look at. He has had tommy john surgery and has been healthy now for a year and a half making 14 starts in the second half of 2008 and starting 33 games in 2009. There are guys Tommy John works for and guys it doesn't. Johnson seems to be the latter and hopefully his arm is more injury proof than ever. There's still worry that something flares up again but really no more than with any other pitcher after this past year.
So is he worth it? Is this even realistic? Would getting Johnson mean the Twins were done with acquisitions this year and basically stick the Twins with Harris/Tolbert/Punto manning two positions in the infield? There's a lot to give up to get Johnson but also a lot to gain. I have to think that a lineup similar to last years which is what we have at the moment coupled with an Ace level pitcher and a bullpen that should be better over the course of the year would make the Twins a definite contender for the pennant next year and also prove to our stars that the Twins are serious about winning. Of course a 2B/3B along with Johnson would be even better but if I was given the choice I'd take Johnson any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
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I really like the idea of getting him
but who would we have to compete against do you think?
Also, and I’m just saying this, but Josh Johnson just so happens to be from Minneapolis
From the only TRUE North division
by thewild_viking_twins on Nov 21, 2009 12:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The risk isn't worth it
I LOVE the idea of a Johnson, Baker, Slowey, Pavano, Blackburn rotation as much as the next guy. But the huge risks have to be taken into consideration, and i’ll try and keep this short:
Risks:
1. From what I have read, the Marlins want an elite prospect in return. According to the ‘sources’, that means Aaron Hicks, and they would want more (I forgot where I saw it, but please trust me, i read it). So kiss Hicks and maybe Manship goodbye! Cheap and talented and under team control.
2. Johnson reportedly (ESPN) wants a four year deal in the $38 million range. That is a TON of money for the Twins.
3. I realize he might help show Mauer how ‘committed’ the Twins are to winning now, however, the last thing I would want is for his contract to take resources away from Mauer.
4. Johnson has an injury history, pitching in only 28 games in the two previous seasons before his breakout year this year (I have to add that he did all this in the NL).
No doubt Johnson has a chance to be a great starter, and the Twins should try to get him for a reasonable price. That said, you have to make the decision of whether or not you think Josh is worthy of the prospects (Hicks and ???) AND the big contract (possibly $40 million) considering the possibility we may only get 15 starts or so out of him each year.
I’m scared that we will end up on the short side of another Bedard trade. I’m hopeful the Twins pull off Haren trade.
by DaTwins on Nov 21, 2009 2:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ideal trade
This is the package I would offer if I was Bill Smith:
Revere or Ramos
Perkins
Delaney
The Marlins would probably say no at first, but it seems like they don’t have a choice. It’s probably a better package than the Twins got for Santana ;)
by DaTwins on Nov 21, 2009 2:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1 Da Twins
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 21, 2009 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How does J.Johnson compare to Beckett?
When Beckett was traded? I’m a lazy not stat checker upper, but I have to think at least resume wise he’s similar, without the World Series thing. Hadn’t Beckett had an injury issue?
At any rate
Beckett—-Hanley Ramirez and Anibel Sanchez
Bedard—Adam Jones and Chris Tillman, George Sherrill
Santana—Deolis Geurra, John Rauch, and Car-J Hardmez, or was it J-lo Gomy?
Comparable—Ramos, Bromberg, and Glesse Perkrain.
I have to think a trade like this helps the Mauer negotiations. By trading Ramos, the demonstrate they are all in. If the Twins do trade Ramos and fail with Mauer, I’ll be disappointed.
by Han Joelo on Nov 21, 2009 8:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I like your thought process here.
Maybe Ramos could pull it off, sure he isn’t quite as good Adam Jones, Ramirez or Gomez were, but Johnson isn’t as good as Beckett, Bedard or Santana were.
Plus, you would think that the Marlins would want a catcher
by DaTwins on Nov 21, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
as a marlins fan also, Beckett had blister problems almost every year
Vikings 4 the superbowl
by RaysOfHope on Nov 23, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hicks
I would have no problem if he was part of the package.
A pitcher like Johnson for a several years is worth it.
by clutterheart on Nov 21, 2009 8:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
He's worth a decent package
and getting him on a 4 year/38 million deal is pretty good. He’s absolutely someone to inquire about. Frankly, I find it absurd that the Marlins won’t sign him.
by Eric in Madison on Nov 21, 2009 9:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Johnson is a great pitcher
i hope we get him
Vikings 4 the superbowl
by RaysOfHope on Nov 23, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Marlins or Twins
You make it sound like Twins, but you said you were a marlins fan.
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
by DaTwins on Nov 23, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
both
rays and reds as well
Vikings 4 the superbowl
by RaysOfHope on Nov 23, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
?
So who should get him? Seems like your covering all bases here. I guess it really doesn’t matter though
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
by DaTwins on Nov 23, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well i think the twins have more of a shot of competing next year than the marlins
i rank my baseball teams from the rays being my favorite, twins second, marlins 3rd and reds 4th
Vikings 4 the superbowl
by RaysOfHope on Nov 23, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
a few things
1) There is no guarantee that he would be interested in signing an extension with Minnesota. Honestly, if you traded for him, you know you have him for 2 or 3 seasons (not sure what his service time is). It’s possible his beef with Florida is the team/market, which if that’s the case, he may be open to an extension if he likes playing in Minnesota, but don’t hold your breath. He could very well be angling to play on a bigger stage too.
2) 4/38 is well worth it for him. Not sure why FLA would be balking at that. I’d think he’d be very, very, very tradable with that contract (unless he got hurt).
3) I’d be quite willing to toss the injury issue behind him. He’s 1.5 years out from TJ and pitching well (unlike theTJ pitcher on our staff). I do feel, however, that going to the AL may bring up his ERA a bit, but he’ll also be 26 next year, so he may still be getting better also.
4) In terms of trade, the Marlins shouldn’t be trading this year, but if they are, they are screwed. They will get more for Johnson, but they are in a similar boat with Uggla. There are good candidates on the FA market (Lackey, Pavano, etc), there are good cheap fliers (sheets), and there are good trade options as well (Halliday). This will depress the value of both, which is good for Minnesota.
5) If we go after Johnson, I’d argue we should go after Uggla too. The package above is probably too much for each one, but not quite enough for both. I’m on the bandwagon that you don’t do a thing with Ramos unless you know what is happening with Mauer. I’d go a step further and argue that with Ramos, you have the option to move Mauer to an infield spot if you so choose. Those are conversations that have to be had with Mauer after he is extended, but I don’t think you move Ramos unless you are sure Mauer will be in Minnesota for some time. That said, if you move Ramos, I’d be open to doing it if both Uggla and Johnson came over. Ramos should be quite valuable at this point, so I’m not sure we want to just give him away for one of them.
My guess is that strictly for Johnson, you would be looking at something like Perkins, Revere, and a Manship/Duensing/Swarzack type pitcher. If you add Uggla in there, I’d be open to tossing in Ramos and possibly one more decent prospect (maybe Hughes/Tolleson etc.) and they may even throw in a major leaguer like Crain or (in a perfect world) Punto.
Bottom line is that you have to at least enquire, and if you do, you enquire about both Uggla adn Johnson. Don’t just do one. The other question is payroll and whether or not you have room to take on both. That’s where tossing in other major leaguers will alleviate things a bit.
by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 21, 2009 9:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
$$$$
I don’t see how the Twins would have the money to pay both Uggla and Johnson unless they get an extreme hometown discount from Mauer and/or open up the payroll like crazy. If the Twins were to get both then they would have an amazing team, however I don’t see it happening. The Twins would have to majorly backload any deal to Mauer or Johnson. The Twins have some money coming off the books in 2010 in the form of Rauch (2.9) and Punto (hopefully, 4). They could choose to non-tender Crain this year or next if need be along with some other middling pitchers reaching arbitration (Bonser, Liriano, Perkins). That might be enough to get them through 2010-2011 before they can cut some major payroll like I mentioned before in Cuddyer, Kubel, and Nathan.
It’s an interesting thought of getting both of them but the package would be ridiculous. You might be sending Hicks and Ramos to get both of those guys but it might be worth it. We have a lot of outfield depth in the minors and Hicks might be expendable if he’s valuable enough to another team. In fact if you send those two it might allow the Twins to keep their talented pitchers at AAA (Duensing, Swarzak, Manship) and send our damaged goods (Perkins) to the Marlins. It would really kill our farm system to send two prospects like that out but if you look at what the Twins would be set up with over the next two years it just might be worth it.
CF Span
C Mauer
RF Cuddyer
1B Morneua
DH Kubel
2B Uggla
SS Hardy
LF Young
3B Punto
SP
Johnson
Baker
Slowey
Blackburn
Swarzak/Liriano/Duensing/Manship
BP
Nathan
Guerrier
Mijares
Rauch
Crain
Neshek
Delaney
Slama
Burnett
I included some up and comers in the bullpen as Rauch will be gone after this year as well as the possibility of Guerrier and Crain being gone as it’s their last years of team control in 2010. I saw that and was a bit surprised it hasn’t come up more often in conversation.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Nov 21, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Uggla and Johnson aren't too exensive... yet
That’s part of the reason why you’d send Perkins and possibly Crain/Punto over with them, to make it work better. It would definitely be quite the coupe if they got them both.
I do think their payroll is going to go up. They are looking at revenue between 180-200M this season. They can afford to spend, and it may not hurt to accept some lower profits the first couple of years to take a decent run at the series…
by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 21, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
trade punto
if he was gone, my life would be complete. I could finally rest! I am so sick of him
by DaTwins on Nov 21, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wait a second
“They are looking at revenue between 180-200M this season”
what the hell? we aren’t talking about the Yankees here.
explain yourself
by DaTwins on Nov 21, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Se the thread on revenue
180M is a conservative estimate. $200 M is more likely. Payroll is a little less than half that.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 21, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
Actually Probably Michael Cuddyer would be involved if we’re talking
Johnson and Uggla
and not Nolasco and Uggla….
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 21, 2009 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No
THe Marlins would have absolutely no interest in Cuddyer. Why would they? The whole point of the deal from the Marlins end is salary reduction.
by Eric in Madison on Nov 21, 2009 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah , good point
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 21, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thrylos98
on his twitter account is saying that he has inside connections to a trade in the works between the Marlins and the Twins. Twins would get Dan Uggla and Ricky Nolasco. Thoughts on this?
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 21, 2009 11:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Im in favor
I would be fine with any trade including Perkins and Casilla. Maybe Revere will be headed south?
by DaTwins on Nov 21, 2009 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That would be
a blockbuster.
Has he ever broken anything before?
by clutterheart on Nov 21, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
has who
ever broken anything before?
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 21, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
But Seth does all the time so it must be possible
by DaTwins on Nov 21, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Damn right if Seth said it
I would think there is something to it.
He has credibility.
by clutterheart on Nov 21, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
dont' suppose you can link to that
I just ran through his twitter account and it’s like reading one side to a phone coversation… kind of hard to get anything out of it.
by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 21, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have a fanpost up
though it is not a direct link to it…it is in the conversation section of the link
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 21, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Uggla plus Nolasco
While I’d rather have Josh Johnson, Nolasco would be an interesting option. Even though he had a poor ERA (5.06 last year), he had the lowest FIP (3.35) of his career, and was really hurt by a .336 BABIP and 61% strand rate. Nolasco would be a good “buy low” option right now, and he’d be cheaper than Johnson in a trade. He’s also a year behind Johnson in service time, which would increase his value.
by Adam Peterson on Nov 21, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Peripherals
When I saw this I went to look at Nolasco and yah his ERA looks bad but his other numbers are very similar to his 2008 campaign when he had a 3.52 ERA.
His H/9 is up 1 but that is explained by the high BABIP you stated. His BB/9 is up .3 but his K/9 went up 1.6 to keep his K/BB rate the same at 4.43. I hope this rumor is true as Nolasco + Uggla will cost much less than Uggla and Johnson. Nolasco would be a nice addition to the young rotation and if I understand cot’s contracts correctly he still has 3 years left of team control as opposed to 2 like Johnson. I’ll be very interested to see if this rumor has any truth.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Nov 21, 2009 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nolasco's BABIP
was high, probably due to bad luck, but his high LD% (21.8%) was also at fault.
by Adam Peterson on Nov 21, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
3.25 FIP in 2009
So, yeah, he’s better than his ERA. It was actually lower in 2009 than 2008 (3.77).
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 21, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree 100%
Buying low Nolasco would be awesome, especially because it’s cheaper than Johnson in both $ and prospects (i assume).
I haven’t really looked into this statistically and all, but would we be selling low on Casilla?
by DaTwins on Nov 21, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
different story
Casilla might be coming off a bad season but he hasn’t done much to prove he’s any good other than some spectacular defensive highlights and a hot month or two in 2008. Nolasco put together a great 2008 and as shown above he had a good but unlucky 2009.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Nov 21, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I realize its a different situation
But just last year he looked serviceable. He added 1.2 wins in 98 games according to Fangraphs, and was worth $5.6 million.
He is still only 25, and 228 ABs is a relatively small sample size in baseball.
In his one year with 437 plate appearances he hit .281/.333/.374. Not bad for a 24 year-old speedster at a premium position.
Anyway, I’m not saying that last year was a fluke, but it was by far his worst professional season, so doesn’t that make it selling low by definition?
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
by DaTwins on Nov 21, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
903 plate appearances is a larger sample size
spanning Casilla’s major league career. He’s batted .244/.301/.314, or a wOBA of .284 for his career. Well below average, he’d need significant improvement simply to get to within sniffing distance of average.
Add below average defense (career -9.2 UZR/150), and we’re looking at someone with relatively little trade value who may simply need a change of scenery at this point.
by Adam Peterson on Nov 21, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For arguments sake
Does it not matter that almost all of those at-bats came between the ages of 21-24? Uggla didn’t even reach the majors until he was 26.
I’m not trying to be a Casilla apologist, but he could be alright.
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
by DaTwins on Nov 21, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It does matter you're right
He just hasn’t shown enough to be worth a lot at this point. If the Twins were to get Uggla, Casilla would struggle to see many at bats over the next two seasons anyhow with Uggla and Hardy manning the middle infield. So yes, you’re right to say that Casilla still has some potential but he hasn’t shown anything that would make me think the Twins will greatly regret letting him go. At best he’d be waiting two years to get a shot at starting here so there’s no point to keep him if the other team wants him as part of a trade for a 2B.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Nov 21, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, it matters that he's 24
and he could improve. But to what, offensively? IMO, for Casilla to become a productive major leaguer, he will have to do two things:
1. Improve his on base skills to become a .300/.360/.400 top of the order type.
2. Improve his defense to become an average or above second baseman.
If Casilla can do this, he can become a 2-3 WAR middle infielder. The problem for is he’s more likely to remain where he is than reach his upside, IMO.
by Adam Peterson on Nov 21, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, we'd be selling low on Casilla
due to his terrible 2009 season. By far, the worst in his career. I wonder what kind of trade value he really has with Florida, who already has a speedy infielder who has difficulty getting on base (Emilio Bonifacio).
by Adam Peterson on Nov 21, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no NO no NO
we don’t want Dan Uggla he plays a horrible 2B base….
if we converted him to 3B MAYBE
what does Uggla do any Different offesnively than J.J. Hardy Nothing!!!!
I guarantee you we don’t trade for Uggla and Nolasco unless the Marlins are stupidly selling them low and at very minimal value and arn’t seeking the return they should be….
I can’t possilby see the Twins give up Ben Revere in a package such as this…..
BEN REVERE !?!?
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 21, 2009 7:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you obviously
dont look at stats do you?
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 21, 2009 11:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Stats?
How about career -10 UZR
611 SOs in four years
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 22, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Uggla is still a +3.5 WAR player next year.
Even with his defense.
by Jesse on Nov 22, 2009 7:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Guys like Uggla are overpriced
Homers cost more than good defense relative to their value.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 22, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not convinced this is true
Uggla won’t be overpriced next year, at any rate, while he’s still arb eligible.
by Eric in Madison on Nov 22, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This was definitely true a few years ago
but I think the pendulum has shifted away from the no defense sluggers the past few years to the point where there could be a market inefficiency. Probably not, but a guy like Uggla is less overpriced than he would have been 4-5 years ago.
He’s pretty clearly between 15-25 runs above average offensively, which makes him a 3 WAR player at the low end offensively (15 RAA) and defensively (-10 UZR). Looking at his 2008 season, if he’s on the high end (25 RAA and around 0 UZR) then he’s a +5 WAR player.
by Adam Peterson on Nov 23, 2009 8:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm starting to warm up to this possibility
Span
Mauer
Morneau
Cuddyer
Kubel
Uggla
Hardy
Young
Valencia
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 23, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
From a rough WAR perspective (trying to be conservative…)
1. CF Span: 3.5 WAR (2.5 and +3.8 the past two years, could go over 4 if he improves CF defense)
2. C Mauer: +7.5 (have to assume some drop-off from 2009, right?)
3. 1B Morneau: +3.5 (a bit of a drop-off over where he would have been over a full season last year)
4. RF Cuddyer: +2.0 (offense could drop off, but I think defense will also regress to norm)
5. DH Kubel: +3.0 (cost about 0.5 WAR due to playing in the field late in the year)
6. 2B Uggla: +3.0 (I think this is around Uggla’s floor if he’s healthy)
7. SS Hardy: +3.0 (wild card, splitting difference between 2008 and 2009)
8. LF Young: 0.0 (would be an improvement over -0.3 and -1.3 last two years)
9. 3B Valencia: 1.0 (have to expect some struggles)
That’s a total of +26.5 WAR for the starting position players. Last year, we were +21.7 WAR. I’ll take a 5 win improvement any day…
by Adam Peterson on Nov 23, 2009 11:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
why wouldn't you?
I don’t mean to sound too much like a homer, that lineup can go player for player against the Yankees… Im gonna look into this…
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
by DaTwins on Nov 23, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Compare this to Adam's list:
Rough projected Yankees lineup, im sure they will go out and sign a slugger but…
1. SS Jeter : (Three year avg of +5 WAR)
2. LF Melky Cabs: (1.6 last year)
3. 1B Teixeira (3yr avg 5.3)
4. 3B ARod (about 8 if healthy)
5. C Posada (4 last year)
6. 2B Cano (3yr avg 3.3)
7. DH Swisher (3 WAR)
8. RF Gardener (2 WAR)
9. CF Austin Jackson (i’ll give him 1.5)
Total: 33.7. And that is before the sign Bay or Holliday or whoever they want….
Maybe we are just good not great
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
by DaTwins on Nov 23, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How does he have this information?
It sounds like specualtion to me. I’m not sure I buy that—if he can find that out, bigger outlets could find it out. Unless he knows the guys involved personally, which might be the case.
by Jesse on Nov 22, 2009 7:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
POST #2 : I'm guessing it'd take
Wilson Ramos
Angel Morales
Anthony Swarzak
Carlos Gutierrez
Glen Perkins
And one of Casilla or Hughes or Tolleson somebody like that….
to get Josh Johnson
but to get Nolasco would be much cheaper but Nolasco + Uggla would be right back into that expensive range in terms of prospects…..
I’d hate to see us get Dan Uggla, slow slow slow, horrible defender, crappy last year and a half -he’s overrated and going south. IMO
although we’d be buying low on Uggla for sure, not Nolasco though IMO…..
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 21, 2009 7:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Really?
Uggla’s been pretty consistent over the past 4 seasons, and I see no reason why he wouldn’t be a 3 WAR player next season. His glove is below average, but not unplayable, and he obviously can hit; frankly I’m not clear on your objection.
They have a great opportunity to be really good over the next couple of years with a couple of upgrades; this trade seems like it would make them significantly better.
by Eric in Madison on Nov 21, 2009 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
SteveHoffmanSlowey must be a Punto lover cause he would hate to see the Twins get anybody that can bop out 30+ homers and play decent defense.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 21, 2009 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
we can't pay Nick Punto 4.1 Million to be a non-starter
HELLLLLLOOOOOO ?
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 22, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We can't waste another season with him as a starter
We paid Mike Lamb more than $4 million to go away. Why not pay Punto $4 million to ride the pine?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 22, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
exactly!
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 22, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
IF you guys are going to sit here and tell me
Ron Gardenhire will allow Bill Smith to dump Nick Punto
you’re all crazy
As long as 1 of Gardy or Smith or Terry Ryan or even Scotty Ulger is involved with the Organization Nick Punto will not be released.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 22, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thats not entirely the point
First off, I think it’s gardy, not bill smith, that wants punto in the lineup, he is the one who backs him every goddamn time he can.
More importantly we aren’t saying what will happen, we obviously have no control over that, but are saying what SHOULD happen. And if the Twins had a chance to reasonably trade for Uggla, I think they would do it, and shift one of Punto or Uggly to third, leaving the other to be the 2B.
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
by DaTwins on Nov 23, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i bet Punto would go to third
i hope he fails and Valencia is brought up and Punto is never heard from again
i hate him, Gardy loves him like a son for some stupid ass reason
Vikings 4 the superbowl
by RaysOfHope on Nov 23, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
my feelings exactly
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
by DaTwins on Nov 23, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the thing that bothers me the most about the Punto situation is he is making 4M
i believe he has a team option for 2011, if that is picked up i will go crazy
Vikings 4 the superbowl
by RaysOfHope on Nov 23, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
At least until he has another two months like he did to start the 2009 season
Then it’ll be Valencia. And Punto will once again lose a job he was handed in spring training (for the fourth time).
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 23, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
money shouldn't effect who starts
That should be based soley on production
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
by DaTwins on Nov 22, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
must be a Punto lover
Harsh!
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Nov 22, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One thing you guys are forgetting, is that even if he isn't a starter, he will get plenty of playing time.
If we signed two infielders, I’d expect Harris to be non-tendered, making Punto the primary backup at all 3 postions. Even if everyone stayed healthy, he’d probably get 500 pa or so. Signing Uggla wouldn’t take away punto’s ABs, it would take away Casilla, Harris, and Tolbert’s at bats. It turn punto from a poor regular to a very good utility man.
by lookatthosetwins on Nov 23, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would dangle Liriano.......
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
by rosterman on Nov 22, 2009 2:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
They might
I think I heard that the Brewers were interested, why not the Marlins.
However, I am guessing that he is nearing free agency cause it seems like he has been around for a few years. possibly getting expensive?
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
by DaTwins on Nov 22, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Johnson
Johnson would be a great pickup, no doubt. But let’s not go to crazy on this value, and Uggla, they can keep him. Nolasco isn’t as big a name, but every bit the quility pitcher. Johnson more than likely would cost to much, however Nolasco is coming off a bit of a down year, similar to baker, where he had a rough start and a strong finish. He would be the one to target. He should not cost you too many top prospects, and with 3 years of control remaining, good value. What would it take? 2 for 1, 3 for 1. not sure, but he’d fit it well with the current staff.
Baker
Slowey
Blackburn
Nolasco
Liriano/Perk/Duensing/others
by Twins win on Nov 22, 2009 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I would love Nolasco
And for the record, he is better than Blackburn
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
by DaTwins on Nov 22, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
I would even argue that Slowey should be opening day with Nolasco following, followed by Baker, Blackburn, so on. I think Slowey has the stuff to be an ace on any other team not named NY Yankees or Boston. However, following his injury, Slowey will probably be throwing second or even third in the rotation this year…unfortunately.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 22, 2009 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 23, 2009 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
But just because he has the highest potential and best stuff, doesn’t give him the #1 spot in the rotation. I agree that he will probably turn out the best, but Baker has earned it.
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
by DaTwins on Nov 23, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it wouldn't happen like that,
remember Radke starting over Santana?
Anyway, Baker, Slowey, Nolasco, Blackburn, and Liriano would be one of the better rotations in baseball. Projected ERA’s would be 3.90, 3.8, 3.7, 4.2, 4.5. Well above average overall. Then add in the great depth we’d have, Duensing/Perkins/Swarzak, and it would be pretty ridiculous. I have to assume, though, that one or two of those guys would be gone.
by lookatthosetwins on Nov 23, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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