Blockbuster Trade in the Works?

Thrylos98 at his twitter account claims to have inside information that a blockbuster deal is in the works between the Marlins and the Twins. He has heard that the Twins will be acquiring 2B Dan Uggla and SP Ricky Nolasco.

2 months ago 33MorneauMVP 23 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

don't suppose he knows for what?

by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 21, 2009 1:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Really? Let's speculate on that

i’d rather have an on base guy not another power guy for the infield, and a better glove, but Uggla is a 3-4 WAR player whose glove hasn’t been as bad as it looks. It almost begs you to bat Mauer 2nd in that scenario, doesn’t it? SOmething like:

Span
Mauer
Uggla
Morneau
Cuddyer
Kubel
Hardy
Young
Punto

Thats an offense.

Nolasco is sort of a buy low guy; he was incredibly unlucky as far as his FIP vs ERA last year; his FIP was actually better in 2009 than in his excellent 2008. If the last 2 seasons are an indication of his next 2, he’s a good guy to have around. Misses some bats.

I wonder what it would take to get both of those guys.

by Eric in Madison on Nov 21, 2009 1:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Hardy batting 7th? this would be amazing. I don’t want to get too excited until I hear it reported somewhere else as well.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Nov 21, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nolasco is an ace in the making

and as you said, might come cheaper because of his 5 ERA last year. I would project us about 10 more wins than the Tigers if this went down, and we didn’t give up much major league talent back.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 22, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nolasco

Would be a major bonus
But this would mean probally getting rid of both Hicks and Ramos.

Or am I missing something

by clutterheart on Nov 21, 2009 1:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

that seems a bit much

I would hope one of those 2 along with some major league ready pitching maybe 2 of Swarzak, Duensing, and Manship along with maybe a high upside arm from A ball?

Really not sure of Nolasco’s worth after his high ERA last year, even if it was a bit of a flukey ERA as his FIP and other numbers looked good.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Nov 21, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably not both

but it shouldn’t be cheap in terms of prospects. Still, Uggla will probably get in arbitration about what he’s worth, so he isn’t going to generate a lot in prospects on top of that.

by Eric in Madison on Nov 21, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Always fun to speculate

on what it would take to get Uggla and Nolasco. Which guys off the 40-man roster? I could see some combination of:
C: Ramos or Morales
IF: Casilla, Harris, Hughes, Valencia
OF: Young
SP: Bonser, Duensing, Manship, Perkins, Swarzak

1. One, possibly two of our top tier prospects (Hicks, Ramos, Revere, Valencia) would need to start off a package.

2. One or two of our 4-5 pitching prospects (Bonser, Duensing, Manship, Perkins, Swarzak)

3. Casilla or Harris

4. Minor league filler, perhaps a relief arm?

Would Hicks, Duensing, Casilla and Delaney be about right?

by Adam Peterson on Nov 21, 2009 2:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That might work.

by Jesse on Nov 22, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If that's the trade, I'd be pretty happy with it.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 22, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Looking at the surplus value

I have Nolasco and Uggla at about 40 mil. (most of that is Nolasco).

Hicks projects to be in the 20 mil range, according the Victor Wang’s calculations. Delaney 6 mil.

Casilla is probably worth a couple mil at best.

I don’t know how to project Duensing. How many years is he under contract? I don’t know the rules for these things. Anyway, if he plays 5 years, makes about 12 mil, and is slightly below average (1.5 WAR/year), he’d be worth about 20 mil.

So according to those numbers, we’d be giving away about 50 mil surplus value for 40. Even besides the fact that I’m using prospect lists from last year, there is a lot of error associated with these numbers, and I’m not even sure how to project salary for Duensing, but I think it shows that that package would probably work.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 23, 2009 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We'd be giving up value

but in areas where we have solid depth (Hicks, Duensing, Delaney) or where we may have given up on a player (Casilla). For example, we have a reasonable chance of getting similar production to what you note for Duensing from Swarzak, Perkins, Manship, etc.

by Adam Peterson on Nov 24, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

speculation

Ramos, Revere, Perkins, Casilla, and one of Crain or Punto…

by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 21, 2009 7:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I highly doubt

the Marlins would be asking for so much talent. Marlins dont want teams to walk away from a trade when they are trying to free up payroll.

my scenerio:

Perkins, Delaney, Casilla, Benson

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 21, 2009 11:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's a pretty crappy package.

Four guys under team control, and therefore cheap which is nice, but I doubt the Marlins will bank on a decent relief prospect and a toolsy CF.

by Jesse on Nov 22, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, replace benson with Hicks or Revere and it sounds more reasonable.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 22, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Up a little

Liriano, Swarzak, Casilla, Jose Morales, Delaney

by DJL44 on Nov 23, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd be pretty happy with this

but I’m higher on Liriano than most, and would rather we gave up someone else, if possible.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 23, 2009 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so what is his connection?

Just curious… Does he work or know someone who works in the organization?

by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 22, 2009 1:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I have serious doubts about this.

He likes to make vague predictions, than say he was right when anything happens. This is new territory for him though, talking about specific players. I seriously think its all bs though.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 22, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Uggla's OBP not ugly at all

Uggla actually is a pretty decent on-base guy. His OBP was 111 points higher than his average last year. Career OBP of .344 and still improving, with .360 and .354 the last two years, is good for a slugger. I’d love to have him.

As a four-year vet he won’t be cheap for long, but a power guy in the infield would be real nice, especially since the outfield prospects are all speed and OBP guys. Span will probably move to the corner as soon as Revere (or someone like him) is ready. We can’t afford slugging outfielders, so if an infielder can knock home the rabbits, that would be great.

I’m guessing it would take at least two good young pitchers (two of Duensing, Swarzak, Delaney and Perkins), one good young catcher (Ramos or Morales), and one of the speedy outfielders (Revere, Hicks, or Benson). And maybe Casilla or Harris to replace Uggla, if they like either of them. And if throwing in Crain would help, sure.

by by jiminy on Nov 22, 2009 3:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs