but the Twins can’t afford to NOT sign him to at least market value. They don’t keep Mauer here and there will be rioting in the streets of Twins Territory. They have to, unfortunately, do what they can to keep him here.

That said, I don’t think he’ll gouge the Twins for tons of money. He knows what this team is, and he seems to be a pretty level-headed guy. He’ll take a (small) cut for a hometown discount, and stick around for hopefully another 10…20 years.

People were mad when Hunter left – but the contract he got was too high and not too many sensible fans would have argued keeping him here for that contract.

People were mad when Santana left – but the contract he got was too high and too long and not too many sensible fans would have argued keeping him here for that contract.

People (alright only a few) and Twins players were mad when Silva left – but the contract he got was too high and too long and not too many sensible fans would have argued keeping him here for that contract.

People were mad when Lawton left – but…oh wait, he was traded, and I was probably the only one who was mad.

Anyway, only foolish fans would be rioting if the Twins failed to sign him to a six-year, $225 million dollar contract. $37.5 million/year is ridiculous for anyone other than the REAL Jesus (and even then, only if he bats LH).

but that’s not the poll question – “6 years / $225 million?” was the question.

And another thing: the chance that Mauer averages 7.5 WAR a year for the next 6 years has to be under 10%, no?

Yes, I’d have to say an average of 7.5 WAR is at the upper end of projections for Joe. First, he’d obviously have to continue his awesome production at or near 2009 levels. Looking at the ups and downs of the previous three years, I would not bet on it. Second, he’d have to stay healthy over those six years, another area where he has had issues in the past. Finally, he’d have to remain a catcher for those six years, otherwise he loses around 1 WAR due to positional adjustment (more if the move means more time at DH).

I think over a six year period, accounting for risk, decline, etc, an average of 5.5 or 6.0 WAR may be more realistic. This comes out to an AAV more in line with $25M range.

But not necessarily on your reasons for discounts. With number one, if you mean it’s a discount because the Twins won’t have to bid against the Yankees and Red Sox next winter, then sure that’s probably a discount. But it’s not something the Twins can go to the negotiating table with.

The injury risk discount and the position risk discount don’t work for me. He’s one of the best players in baseball, and one of the best hitters no matter what position he plays. Maybe Joe’s agent gives the Twins a 2-for-1 coupon for Chilis. God I love Chilis. Chips and salsa……..

The long-term contract discount I think pretty much speaks for itself. Nobody out there is about to sign Mauer to a one or two-year deal. Any realistic offer the Twins make is going to have to average at least $20 million a year, like your ideas suggest. I don’t think those totals really make for any sort of a discount.

if the Twins manage to seal an 8-year extension I’d be ecstatic.

and something called Steve Berthiame love the Yankees, because there’s really no good reason to vote for either of those guys over Mauer. Nice to see Joe was picked overwhlemingly, though.

And I would think that if Mauer’s agent doesn’t use Joe’s MVP as a reason to pay him more, then he’s not doing his job. I can see maybe using as a tactic for award incentives, saying Joe should get more money for an MVP under a new contract, like $2 mil instead of $500K.

have you ever met natetheskate ?

and then decide what to do after we’ve already locked up Mauer. If Ramos arrives as advertised in 2011 or 2012, then we could (a) move Mauer out of the catcher spot, (b) let them share catching duties and DH Mauer regularly, or © trade Ramos to address other needs.

I suspect that Jose Morales’ development could be a factor here. If he improves his catching defense and remains an effective hitter, we may have an embarrassment of riches behind the plate.

Sure, pay a guy what he’s worth. Considering that “whatever he’s worth” is subjective to an individual fan’s opinion…$150M, $200M, etc, why do you find this so shocking?

The simple fact is that Joe Mauer will be signed for whatever Joe Mauer wants. If he wants as large a contract as possible, he’ll wait until free agency and let NY, Boston, etc bid for him. If this happens, he’s probably well into the $200M’s.