Should the Twins Bring Back Joe Crede?
by Jesse on Nov 3, 2009 1:18 PM EST
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23 comments
Last February, Scott Boras client Joe Crede dropped his asking price enough for the Twins to sign him to an incentive-laden deal. He was exactly as advertised, from the glove to the power to the number of games he was healthy, but with the Twins going into 2010 with third base in essentially the same position it was at going into 2009, should the Twins double-dip on their experiment?
Okay, so the situation isn't exactly the same. Crede will be another year older with another injury-plagued season under his back belt, there are a pair of third base prospects that are nearly major league ready (Are they the next Casey Blake / Corey Koskie tandem? No? Right, then.) and the alternatives will be a bit more expensive. But in spite of all those things, the team is still in a similar position as they don't have the one sure answer that they need.
His '09 deal of $2.5 million base with playing time incentives ($50,000 for 400, 425, 450, 475, 500 and 525 plate appearances) and award incentives made his possible payout a reasonable $7,000,000. Suffice it to say he didn't reach any of those, so the Twins paid just the minimum. But according to the FanGraphs value scale, they still believe that Crede would have been worth $8.3 million on the open market for the performance he gave this past summer. How? Because of his defense and the position he plays, and did I mention his defense, Crede was worth 18.4 runs above replacement.
Among third basemen with at least 350 plate appearances, FanGraphs values Crede's defensive performance as fifth-best in all of baseball (behind Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre) in terms of fielding runs above avearge. He also tallied the highest UZR/150 total among third basemen with more than 700 innings in the field.
Long story short? Crede plays some wicked defense. Arguably better than any third baseman on the free agent market.
Joe knows the Twins, and isn't opposed to returning to Minnesota next year. Would playing more regularly on a non-artificial surface play less havoc on his back and knees?
We all know the risks involved with Crede, which means the game would be all about how to mitigate those risks to both the player and the club. That means possibly giving him scheduled days off to keep his body as fresh and healthy as possible, not to mention offering a contract that resembles the 2009 version that will pay for good health.
Other free agent options are likely to cost more than Crede. Internal options may not be the health risk, but none of them can flash the leather like Crede, either.
What would you rather do? A Brendan Harris/Matt Tolbert platoon would cost a little less, but not significantly less than a $2.5 million base. Another thought: when (not if) Daniel Valencia gets his callup in 2010, what kind of a player do you want available as a mentor?
There's merit in considering Crede's return, it would just have to meet the right criteria. Where do you sit?
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I'm probably going to get a lot of flak for this
but I say re-sign him for the right price. His defense, when he’s playing healthy, is far better than you’re going to get from that platoon (let us not forget Harris’ 4 error game). His bat has the potential to bring much more power too (ignoring all the flyout jokes from this past summer…). Until Valencia is ready, I don’t see a problem with (a healthy) Crede.
by fischean on Nov 3, 2009 1:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
Crede plays a hard position excellently! Crede is the best fielding 3B the Twins have had since Corey Koskie. Crede does have a tendency to fly out a lot, but on the occasions when he does get a hold of the ball, it does go a long ways.
I believe that moving to grass may help Crede and his back. Plus, Crede is the only “Twin” who has any experience playing everyday on grass, so this will help the defense. Crede is a premier defender and especially for this reason, he should be brought back on another incentive based deal, which I do not think he will be averse to considering he had yet another injury this year.
As Jesse pointed out as well, who do you want Valencia’s mentor to be? Harris/Punto or Crede? I prefer Crede. Bring him back on another 2.5 – 3 million deal laden with incentives (50,000 for 300, 400, and 500).
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 3, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's very much worth a shot
I think you wait awhile and evaluate his health. Harris/Punto is a good backup plan but this gives the Twins a chance to solidify one of the infield spots for what should be a relatively low price. He’s not going to get a big deal anywhere and shouldn’t even get as much money as he did last year. Worth the risk as long as it’s similar to last years deal.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Nov 3, 2009 2:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Knowing what we know
1) If Crede were to return, the Twins would need a backup 3B (not an emergency 3b).
2) When Crede is not playing, he is not a option as a bench player. Not a defensive replacement or pinch hitter.
3) Crede would have many days off.
4) Crede will not hit for average or get on base close to an average level for a big league player.
5) One cannot count on Crede playing even half of a schedule.
6) If Crede were healthy, he would provide power and outstanding defense.
7) Crede is horrible against LH pitching and has not homered against a lefty since 2007.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 3, 2009 2:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
you can't replace experience
Crede is a great glove man, and he’s a dangerous hitter. Given a choice of going with unproven players with loads of potential or one who can contribute in the here and now (when he’s healthy), I think this is a bit of a no-brainer. Besides, like 33MorneauMVP said above, Crede would be a a fine mentor to Valencia, and I also think the move to a grass field would be easier on Crede’s back. Definitely worth the same kind of deal as last year.
by profgeek on Nov 3, 2009 2:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Playing on grass
Don’t the White Sox play on grass, too? He had back problems long before he started playing in the Dome, so I wouldn’t have much faith in Target Field somehow fixing his back.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Nov 3, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, he had more problems on the road this year
It’s harder playing on hard dirt all day than on soft turf.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 3, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Were the road health problems due to road playing surface
Or his back reacting to 3+ hours in a plane? My guess is the latter. Home games on grass will help, but 120 games still seems like a stretch to count on for 2010.
by Adam Peterson on Nov 3, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's the back, not the turf
I agree. The problem is his back. It’s going to stay a problem whatever surface he plays on.
by by jiminy on Nov 4, 2009 1:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My back isn't so great
One thing that really slows me down is the cold.
by Salty on Nov 4, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right, but standing on a hard surface puts more stress on his back than on a soft one
Infield dirt is harder than the Metrodome turf. Grass fields have dirt infields, the Dome does not. Standing on the Dome’s carpet was easier on his back. I’m not sure it made a difference for a chronic disk problem, but the Dome’s turf didn’t hurt his back. If anything, it helped it. That was my point.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 4, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No guaranteed money
I’d sign him to a make-good minor league deal. I might even encourage him to take April and May off.
by DJL44 on Nov 3, 2009 3:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I just can't forsee him accepting the right price
For me,the right price is a minor league deal with a base of $1 million if he makes the team out of spring training and a sliding incentive package that gives him $ 1 million for every 30 games he plays in with a cap of $5 million if he plays in 120 games or more.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 3, 2009 3:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think that's a great idea
if you’re lukewarm on him, but it’s only a contract he’d sign if he couldn’t find a job elsewhere. I think there will be teams out there, like we were last year, who are willing to take a chance on a healthy Joe Crede. Trying to duplicate the deal he got last season would low-risk…it’s low-cost, and it’s still low enough that if another team out-bids us it’s an easy decision not to match the higher bidder.
I’m not opposed to using a sliding incentive package…it’s the minor league deal which I’m not sure he’d go for. Who knows, maybe he likes it enough here and is confident enough to take us up on something like that.
by Jesse on Nov 3, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jesse...I know Cotts shows what you have stated his salary was...
…but it isn’t accurate. It was announced when he signed that he got $2.5mm base with bonuses beginning at 250 plate appearances and topping out at either 525 or 540. Cotts also shows the bonuses as $50,000 for each increment. I believe it is $500,000 not $50k as that would make his maximum contract only $2.8mm, not the $7.0mm reported when he signed. I know it was reported earlier this summer that he had made his first bonus when he got to 250 so it is more likely that he made about $3.5mm with 360 some plate appearances.
As for your question. I say Bill Smith should contact him soon. Tell him the Twins would love to have him back for next year, and offer the exact same contract he signed last spring. Then proceed to tell him that he needs to decide within the next 20-30 days, otherwise, the Twins will have to look at other options. I have a feeling that he would take it and the Twins would have a very solid veteran at the start of the season who likely will play about half of the year…then Valencia should be ready to step in. If Valencia isn’t ready, then he likely isn’t our answer for the future.
by roger13 on Nov 3, 2009 4:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for that, Roger.
I read that too, on the incentives for PA’s, and noted how low his salary would have been. I was certain his award incentives wouldn’t be worth millions. But I didn’t find any other specifics. If you do find out what the Twins ended up shelling out this season for certain, let me know.
My question for you here is—what would it take for you to determine that Valencia isn’t ready? Wouldn’t it still be early to give up on the guy, even if he struggled in MLB action? It’s tough to judge a guy’s future on a few months of play.
by Jesse on Nov 3, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
why not
I’m not sure what’s on the market. I know Chipper Jones is there, but he’s likely going to stay in Atlanta, and even if not, will be rather expensive. I don’t think Valencia is going to be any better than Crede this year, and I also think he could use a few more months of seasoning. Bringing Crede back to man 3rd for a few months (and that may be all it is) isn’t necessarily a bad thing. There’s also the upside factor where by God’s grace he suddenly stays healthy and has a 2006 type season. While the odds are low, it’s in the realm of possibility (and hopefully he will actually be able to prepare this offseason), and if it happens, we have one less black hole. He might even sneak into type B territory.
My big complaint is regarding what happens if/when he gets hurt. He spent a lot of time injured but not on the DL. Bill Smith needs to make sure both Crede and Valencia know that if there’s an injury, he’s getting 15 days off and Valencia gets a cup of coffee. That actually may do more to keep him healthy than anythign else as he’s forced to take a 2 week break a couple of times during the season.
by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 3, 2009 4:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
His value has not increased
since last offseason, IMO. I’d consider re-signing him for the right price, perhaps $1M + incentives for another $2-3M. His defense has such value and we have such little infield depth at the major league level, we’re not in any position to kick an ~2 WAR player out the door. The key will be to have a better backup option than Brendan Harris for when Crede is inevitably hurt. Is Valencia the guy in 2010? I don’t know.
by Adam Peterson on Nov 3, 2009 9:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Fun stat
Prior to being put on the disabled list in August, Crede missed 34 of the Twins first 122 games without a DL stint (and that’s not counting the week he was out before being DL’ed – they put him on retroactively).
Alexi Casilla All-Star had a good point above – with Crede, not only do you need a very capable backup third baseman, but you’re effectively out a roster spot on days he can’t go, and those can happen rather frequently.
I’d still consider signing him, but not for anything other than the type of contract he got last year, and I would make sure someone like Harris is ready to step in as the everyday third baseman.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Nov 4, 2009 9:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The not knowing whether he could go or not produced some colorful interviews with Ozzie Guillen.
by Salty on Nov 4, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just about anything produces colorful interviews with Ozzie.
"Is it normal to wake up in the morning in a sweat because you can't wait to beat another human's guts out?" -Joe Kapp
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 4, 2009 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My favorite phrase
When talking about some of the crusty corners of Wrigley, he referred to “rats as big as pigs.”
by Salty on Nov 4, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Crede
As said above, the Twins seemed hamstrung last season when Crede was injured. He was holding a roster spot, always with the hopes that he would return in less than 7 days, and was no help off the bench. The Twins were literally forced to play a palyer short during this time…largely because of contract incentives and such.
Valencia, even with a breakout spring, would best be served by starting the season at AAA. Sure, you can gamble and have him elarn in the bigs, but let’s not. okay.
Sign Crede. Hope we can get what we got this year out of him.
Then, the bigger question is , who is the backup. Assuming the Twins sign a second baseman, Punto becomes spare infielder number one. If the Twins don’t sign a second baseman, Punto goes to second.
Do the Twins give up on Alexi, then?
Is Alexi in the spare infielder mix? Then you can only keep one of Harris or Tolbert, a decision that ahs to be made, soon. Tolbert would probably win out because he is cheaper. With Tolbert and Punto as backups/bench, I would be satisfied…if the plane from Rochester can ship us Valencia on a moment’s notice.
But then the Twins have esentially written off Harris and Casilla…do it now…get us something for them and perkins and Pridie…now!
Crede. I would offer $3 million. I would give him another million if he reaches $300 plate appearances, and stop it at that…no more, no less. If he plays well, then you also have the trade option in mid-season, if Valencia is worthy of league-average call-up. If youc an trade Crede, you egt back some of the $$$.
The same questions the Twins have, now, for Crede…every other team will have, too. No one sees him as playing 130-140 games. No one sees him hitting above .250. No one sees him hitting more than 15-20 homers. That’s his worth, plus his fielding. How much can someone open the purse strings to pay for that!
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
by rosterman on Nov 8, 2009 12:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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