It will be fun to see if Pavano does accept arbitration or not. If anything, it is a fall back on a decent one-year contract if he can’t pull off a multi-year anywhere else. The plus is that the Twins could get him for just a season in the $4-5 million range.

Would it make sense for the Twins to offer Crede arbitration? Could it abckfire and be more expensive than just seeing his worth in the free agent market (which could be as low as $1.5 million).

As soon as the Rule 5 passes, the Twins should sign-up a few minor league free agents. Be interesting to see if the Twins do keep the aforementioned Jones around for another season, not to mention Matt Macri and Tim Lahey.

And, yes, tomorrow is the BIG DAY — who else added to that free-agent pool. Will there be a better Nick Punto/Matt Tolbert, a decent back-up catcher so Morales can be the third guy/DH, a real 4th outfielder, a lefty that can pitch more than one-third inning, or a decent back-of-the-rotation starter not named Ramon, Livain or Sir Sidney!

won’t have much time to use the arbitration offer as a fallback. He’ll need to decide whether to accept arbitration by the 7 Dec deadline. Remember, if we offer him, say 1 year and $5-6M, he can accept arbitration and come back with his own number. Would an abritrator accept a Pavano figure of $10+M? Quite possible, considering Pavano was a 3.7 WAR player last season. Arbitration cases argue the midpoint between the offers. If we offer $6M and Pavano comes back with $12M, then all he needs to show is that he’s worth at least $9.0000001M to win the case and eat up much of our available payroll space.

I could very well see Pavano accept arbitration in hopes of maximizing his 2009 paycheck and putting together one more healthy season to snag a 3 year contract after 2010.

I’m not sure offering Crede arbitration will save us any money. We’d have to come in with a number (no incentives…I think), he comes back with his own. I could see it easily backfiring and the Twins ending up with more guaranteed money than we would sign on the open market. I’d rather not offer him arbitration and if we’re truly interested, put together an incentive-laden contract offer.

The most important date is the date which we learn of the Mauer extension.

More teams are saying that they will cut payroll in general or save money by letting mediocre players go rather than pay them high arbitration prices. To me, this is good business. Why pay a backup 2 million, when an equivalent player can be had for the major league minimum?

I think the Twins should non-tender Harris. Others can do what he does and for less money.

I havent heard anything for awhile since the “been talking to his agent a little”. Anyone heard more or that the status at the moment?

Does anyone here think that Hudson will not be offered arbitration by the Dodgers? If they don’t I hope the Twins make a play for him.

The Tigers have declined to offer Polonco arbitration. Bill Smith, please go sign Polonco. NAO.

Rich Harden
Placido Polanco
Orlando Hudson (to all indications)
Felipe Lopez (to all indications)

The Twins will add a lot of payroll due to raises to existing players. They will add a lot of payroll if they sign Mauer, either in the form of a bonus or by voiding 2010 on his contract. They added about $4M when they traded for Hardy. I doubt the Twins add more than one player who makes $5M+ (now an average salary for a non-rookie). It looks like Polanco is gone to the Phillies, leaving 2B options of OHud and FLopez. DeRosa, Beltre, Glaus, Feliz etc. are available at 3B. There are several high-risk pitchers on the board, but it looks like Harden is getting pursued by a lot of them. The low-reward group (including Pavano, Washburn, Garland, Davis) is there, but all of those guys will cost a minimum of $7M.

As far as fourth outfielders go, I like the idea of signing someone that might compete for the left field job or at least a platoon, but the Twins aren’t going to spend substantial money on a guy who isn’t going to play much.

My predictions: They sign one of the low reward group (looks like Pavano), go with what they have in the infield and sign a fourth outfielder to a minimum bucks or minor league contract.