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Realistic Look At Available 3B

Hi all.. longtime lurker first time poster here who just spent his evening thinking about which potential Twins thirdbaseman I should be imagining in the 2010 lineup while I wait through the gray months. Here's what I came up with...

 

First, here are the teams looking to for someone to play the hot corner. Teams are ranked per how likely they are in my opinion to pick up a player and teams not on the list at already have an above average 3B under contract for 2010.

TEAMS W/ HIGH PRIORITY TO FIND A 3B  (these teams will get new 3B or re-sign FA 3B)
1.) Angels
2.) Phillies
3.) Orioles

TEAMS THAT MAY PICK UP A 3B IF YEARS & $$ ARE RIGHT
4.) Twins (stick with Punto / Harris / Valencia ?)
5.) Cardinals (stick w/ david freese?)
6.) Padres (move chase headley back to 3B or stick with Kouzmanoff?)
7.) Marlins (stick w/ wes helms, bonafacio, and maybe uggla too?)
8.) Astros (stick w/ geoff blum, keppinger, and maybe tejada?)
9.) Giants (stick w/ gillaspie, sandoval, and maybe Uribe too?)
10.) Mariners (stick w/ Bill Hall?)
11.) Rockies (probably stick w/ ian stewart or is he a viable option @ 2B? they seem pretty convinced they have no need for atkins)
12.) Pirates (stick w/ andy laroche until Pedro Alvarez is ready?)

 

Next, here's a list of available 3B on the market (with my guesses on where they go in parentheses).

FREE AGENT STARTERS
Chone Figgins (32) - Type A (resigns w/ LA or moves position & signs with another big market somewhere... he's really only played 3B for the last three years though and he's type A so I think he stays put)
Adrian Beltre (31) - Type B (Phillies, Orioles, Angels)
Troy Glaus (33) - Type B (Phillies, Orioles, Cardinals, Astros, Giants, Angels)
Joe Crede (32) - (Twins, Cardinals, Orioles, Padres)
Mark DeRosa (35) - Type B (Twins, Orioles, Cardinals)
Pedro Feliz (35) - (Twins, Orioles, Marlins)
Melvin Mora (38) - Type B (Twins, Padres, Astros, Marlins)
FREE AGENT STARTERS BUT MAY PLAY POSITION OTHER THAN 3B IN 2010
Miguel Tejada (36) - Type A (resigns w/ Astros)
Juan Uribe (31) (resigns w/ Giants)
Adam Kennedy (34) (no idea)
STARTERS THAT MAY BE AVAILABLE BY TRADE
Dan Uggla
Kevin Kouzmanoff (stays in San Diego?)
Matt Gamel
Brandon Wood (starting 3B in LA if they don't sign Figgins?)
Garrett Atkins
FA 3B BENCH PLAYERS AT BEST  (won't start @ 3B for any MLB team)
Brian Barden (29)
Rich Aurilia (38)
Aaron Boone (37)
Nomar Garciaparra (36)
Mark Loretta (38)
Craig Counsell (39)  
Pablo Ozuna (35)
Robb Quinlan (33)
Bobby Crosby (30)


Finally, here are what I see as the top ten options for the Twins. I would hope that either Valencia or Hughes get called up to at least split time with a sub-par regular by mid-season if it comes down to Options #8 through #10.

TOP REALISTIC OPTIONS FOR TWINS


1.) Dan Uggla (whether he plays 2nd or 3rd - pref. 3rd)
2.) Adam Kennedy (only on a 3 year contract max)
3.) Troy Glaus  (only on a 2 year PA-incentive contract max)
4.) Brandon Wood (only if price is around Perkins, Duensing, or Manship + 1 or 2 mid level prospect(s) max)
5.) Mat Gamel (only if price is around Perkins, Duensing, or Manship)
6.) Mark DeRosa (only on a 2 year incentive laden contract max)
7.) Joe Crede   (only on a 2 year PA-incentive contract max)
8.) Garrett Atkins (only if the price is a mid-level prospect(s))
9.) Pedro Feliz  (one year contract w/ one year club option)
10.) Melvin Mora  (one year PA-incentive contract max w/ on year club option )

 

Also a  prediction... I think the Phils give Beltre a contract which sets the benchmark for the rest of this offseason's deals for 3B.

Comment 28 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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Why not Beltre or Tejada?

I would rank them like this:

1) Beltre – Twins like him, may get a make-good contract
2) Tejada – will not get offered arbitration, check tomorrow to see if I’m right. Good fit at 3B, won’t get a long-term deal at his age
3) Crede – split major / minor league deal only
4) Uggla – Twins would be outbid for Uggla
5) DeRosa – probably stays in NL
6) Harris/Valencia – Stand pat is probably higher on this list than I’d like
7) Glaus – may be this season’s Crede
8) Rolen – if Cincy is really hurting for $$

by DJL44 on Nov 30, 2009 11:34 AM EST reply actions  

agreed

its nice to have it laid out

The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.

by DaTwins on Nov 30, 2009 4:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Contract Length

I think Beltre, Crede, Glaus, Rolen are the reasonable options. I don’t think the Twins are interested in more than a 1 year stop gap. The Twins are in good position to take on a high risk/high reward player.

I agree that this was really well laid out. Is 2B next on the agenda?

by Jon Kammerer on Nov 30, 2009 5:05 PM EST reply actions  

Beltre should be option 1-8

http://twinkietalk.com
http://thecollegehockeyblog.com

by fetch9 on Nov 30, 2009 5:45 PM EST reply actions  

Atkins

Won’t be tendered a contract and probably could be had cheaply. I seem to recall some sort of connection with the Twins—friends with Mauer? Or the same high school as Cuddyer? Or maybe he was college roommates with Chase Utley…who is not a Twin. Maybe the Twins could trade for Utley, that would solve 2B. Sarcasm.

Anyway, i know his defense is sub-par, but I’m thinking at the right (cheap) price, Atkins could get a look, with Steven Tolbert and LNP playing late inning defense. Could also platoon with righty hitting Valencia.

by Han Joelo on Nov 30, 2009 7:27 PM EST reply actions  

We could do better than Atkins

Like you said, his defense isn’t great. And his offense seems to get a big boost from Coors Field – his career OPS is .892 Home, .735 Away. He’s also been hitting worse every year since 2006, though next season he will probably put up better numbers than 2009.

by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Nov 30, 2009 7:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Atkins doesn't pass the Harris test

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 30, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Big picture........

A player will sign if the money is right. The Twins are not known for being geenerous. Which brings us to…

Someone wants to win. That may be the break the Twins have over, say, the Orioles, but not the Cards, Phillies of Angels.

The Twins need a single year third baseman. Maybe more, though. How ready is Valencia and are the Twins ready to take the plunge, or do this whole mess over again the following year. If nothing else, signing someone to a two-year deal, even with an option for a third, means you can groom Valencia one more season. If 2011 rolls around and you have a Glaus, Beltre, whomever, you might have a bargaining chip, or maybe able to deal a Cuddyer, Young or Kubel, thus elininating the DH and having the third-base vet fill THAT role.

I still think the Twins ALSO need a 2nd sacker!

Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!

by rosterman on Nov 30, 2009 7:32 PM EST reply actions  

Agree on the type of 3B Free Agent the Twins would look at

A decent veteran on a 1 to 2 year deal similar to Crede last year.

This is another reason why the Twins won’t sign Beltre though – Beltre’s only 30 years old and not injury-prone at all. You’d think he gets a 3 year deal atleast, right?

A second baseman would be nice but only if he’s willing and able to slot over at 3B too. I don’t think there’s any way the Twins are going to bring in a new full-time 3B and a full-time 2B.. Like it or not I think LNP is going to get his 300 to 400 ABs somewhere and I’d prefer as many as possible were at 2B where he’s more valuable. I don’t think Harris can play 2nd and his bat isn’t worth playing at 3rd. So the most efficient & largest upgrade to the club is to pick up a good bat / decent fielder at 3rd.

Better yet is to have a player that would be an overall upgrade at either 2nd or 3rd (Uggla via trade or Kennedy via FA) so that you can primarily field Uggla or Kennedy at 3rd and Punto at 2nd until the Hughes/Valencia battle resolves itself at which point you could switch to Uggla or Kennedy at 2nd and Valencia/Hughes at 3rd. It sounds like Kennedy and Uggla are both pretty bad fielders at 2B but they would only be here for a few years (3 year deal max for Kennedy or until arbitration years run out for Uggla) so there’s not a lot of risk and you could always trade them to another team looking for a moderately priced, adequate 3B down the line too.

Also – if the Twins were to add a new SS (Hardy) 2B and a 3B, there couldn’t possibly be any money left over after arbitration raises and Mauer’s extension to add a pitcher… which is the area where the Twins probably have the most room to improve (although hopefully they improve over last year just by staying healthy!)

by Mr. Smokum on Nov 30, 2009 10:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd love for the Twins to sign Beltre but..

it just doesn’t seem realistic to me.

Even after a down year he still looks like the second best 3B in the market after Figgins. He never gets injured (other than the fluke thing that happened this year) and he’s consistently got an above average bat & glove.

There’s likely more money in Philly, arguably a better chance to win in Philly, and certainly a bigger market in Philly. Besides that he put the Twins were on his no trade list earlier when Bill Smith was trying to deal with Seattle. And even beyond that the Orioles are done with Melvin Mora and are going to be looking for a solid 3B for the next 3 to 4 years (don’t believe they have anyone close to ready at 3B).

Tejada seems more interesting but then there’s probably a larger market for his services just because there’s probably a number of teams out there that would still like to have him a shortstop for a couple of years. Also, for whatever its worth, he’s actually never played 3rd before in the MLB.

by Mr. Smokum on Nov 30, 2009 9:50 PM EST reply actions  

Actually the more I think about it..

The difference between Adam Kennedy or Pedro Feliz and Brendan Harris is little if anything good. I’d rather just give the ABs to Harry if it comes down to that. Initially my thought was it couldn’t hurt to sign a mediocre veteran to play with Valencia/Hughes but why bother when you get the same production for cheaper with Harry?

Just hope a big market team besides the Angels doesn’t sign Figgins as an OF and reduce the number of decent 3B in the market.

But if all else fails I still like the idea of taking a flier on Atkins or Mora for cheap/ short term just to see what they do next year. Who knows.. its atleast possible that they have a good 2010 (Mora more so than Atkins).

by Mr. Smokum on Nov 30, 2009 10:52 PM EST reply actions  

Harris sucked in the second half

.232/.293/.303/596 in the second half of 2009 does not inspire confidence that he’ll be even an adequate everyday player at third base. I have to think they want to upgrade there with DeRosa or the like.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 30, 2009 11:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

but just wanted to change my position on Adam Kennedy since i had him all the way up at #2 on that list. Also, don’t think Pedro Feliz is any kind of upgrade so strike his name from the list too.

Glaus, Crede, DeRosa, Tejada, Mora, Atkins or a trade for someone else (Uggla, Gamel, Wood, Kouzmanoff) please

Otherwise please don’t bother distracting yourself from getting a pitcher, Mr. Bill Smith!

by Mr. Smokum on Nov 30, 2009 11:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes

it’s better to sign someone who’s injury prone but has a chance to be a real upgrade, than someone who’ll be a marginal upgrade at best.

by lookatthosetwins on Dec 2, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions  

3B

A couple of things. I’ve seen nothing indicating what the Twins plan on spending. They are at 80M already and are working on a Mauer extension and have given indication that they plan on spending more. I’m guessing that puts them in the 90-100M range in terms of payroll. If they go up to 100M, I think they can get reasonable options at 2B, 3B, and SP, though there will be some high reward/low risk(expense) type signings to do it.

I’m hoping that Punto becomes a super sub and that he fills in when the invetible injury arrives (with the exception of 3B where I hope that Valencia gets a majority of starts). I’d guess either way he’s going to get 300-400 at bats, but I’d rather it be a defensive substitution or keeping a regular fresh.

That said, in the 3B market, there are two low risk/high reward signings available in Crede and Glauss. Both have durability questions and neither will cost much. Glaus (if healthy) will provide well above average offense with poor defense. Crede (if healthy) will provide elite defense with the potential of above average offense as well. Each can be had cheaply. I am guessing Crede will sign for about 1M with some incentives. Glaus will probably cost a bit more. Neither will get 2 years unless it’s an option that vests based on plate appearances. If the Twins are in the market to make a big signing yet, it makes a lot more sense to do it at 2B (Uggla, Philips, Polanco, Lopez) where there are a plethora of good options available which will drive down the price and not much in the farm system to help (unless people think that Tolleson/Hughes is the answer at 2B). Depending on the deal, there would probably be room to get a high upside pitcher like Sheets as well.

by diehardtwinsfan on Dec 1, 2009 9:02 AM EST reply actions  

Matt Gamel

If Matt Gamel could be had reasonably I’d love to go after him. One big positive would be that Valencia could be part of the package for him. Basically getting Gamel makes Valencia dispensable. So would a Valencia + Perkins get the trade done? Not too long ago word was that Gamel was untouchable but that’s supposedly not the case anymore with the emergence of Casey McGehee. Gamel is IMO ready for the majors and could be our starter immediately and his low cost leaves money for the Twins to go after a 2B or starting pitching help as well.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 1, 2009 1:43 PM EST reply actions  

I would perhaps

do that package. I do not know much about Gamel though…Perkins+Tolbert/Casilla+Valencia is what I would send. What is Gamel’s upside? I just do not want to send Valencia away without getting the same type of player or better. Though since you suggested sending both Valencia and Perkins, Gamel must be a significant upgrade over Valencia. I do like this idea since as you said, it leaves money to go after a SP (Harden/Sheets) or 2B (Lopez/Hudson).

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by BCTwins on Dec 1, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

No thanks

Gamel could be had, but Perkins + Tolbert/Casilla + Valencia is too much to give up for him. Valencia could very well be a better long term option at 3B. Unless we have an opening at DH (see ya Delmon), I would not put Gamel in the field.

by Adam Peterson on Dec 1, 2009 11:06 PM EST up reply actions  

matt gamel???

matt gamel has one year in the pros he hit 242 and struck out 54 times in 128 ABs!!!
why dont we sign cameron to play center move span to right sign crede for a million he plays good and doesnt get hurt its worth it and if not we bring up valencia with no harm. let punto play 2nd. try and sign some pitcher such as sheets or harden. if we do this we would have either crede or cameron bat 8th in our lineup thats a very deep lineup that can go a long ways

by bighead306 on Dec 1, 2009 2:52 PM EST reply actions  

please

write in sentences. It is very hard to understand your dribble when you just throw words out there without any punctuation.

matt gamel has one year in the pros he hit 242 and struck out 54 times in 128 ABs!!!

Oh dear me! One year (more like half year) in the pros does not make or break a player. Gamel was restricted by an injury which many believe, including myself, lowered his production, and incidentally – his price.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by BCTwins on Dec 1, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Hummmm.......

Might as well just get Travis Metcalf!

Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!

by rosterman on Dec 1, 2009 11:21 PM EST up reply actions  

The simplest option

would be to re-sign Crede for one more year on a deal similar to last year. He has expressed interest in returning, he’s a good clubhouse presence, and we really only need him for a year or even a half-season before Valencia is ready to start every day.

Playing on grass will probably help him a little bit in keeping him healthy too- and when he;s healthy he’s a good defender and hits for power.

by John Veldhuis on Dec 1, 2009 5:22 PM EST reply actions  

Nice, work but ...

… I don’t see the Twins going after a third baseman, not with Valencia waiting in the wings. Maybe they go after Crede on a similar deal as last year. Maybe.

I think if the Twins sign another infielder, it will be a 2nd baseman. In the meantime, Punto will be keeping 3rd base warm for Valencia’s eventual call up.

There are some pretty nice names available and none of them will cost a 1st draft pick. Polanco is getting a lot of heat, but Hudson would be a great signing. There is also Lopez, DeRosa, Belliard and Uribe.

by sploorp on Dec 2, 2009 11:22 PM EST reply actions  

Here's what's available for 2B..

Second basemen

Ronnie Belliard (35) – Type B, not offered arb
Jamey Carroll (36)
Craig Counsell (39)
Mark DeRosa (35) – Type B, offered arb
Nick Green (31)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
Orlando Hudson (32) – Type A, not offered arb
Adam Kennedy (34)
Felipe Lopez (30) – Type B, not offered arb
Mark Loretta (38)
Pablo Ozuna (35)
Placido Polanco (34) – Type A, not offered arb
Juan Uribe (31)

Seems like there’s only a few decent options out there… and glove-wise most of them should be playing 3rd & not 2nd. DeRosa @ 2nd? blech.

Hudson, Belliard, Uribe, Lopez, Polanco (not sure about Polanco or Uribe at 2nd though) is all that’s really left but I think there’s a larger market out there for 2B.

Seems alot less likely they’ll be able to pick up a 2B than a 3B.

by Mr. Smokum on Dec 3, 2009 9:35 AM EST up reply actions  

I've mentioned this before, but I'll say it again (for the record):

I’d like to see Doug Mientkiewicz as the backup 3B/1B to Valencia and Morneau.

by benhertz on Dec 3, 2009 7:08 AM EST reply actions  

Yes......

I would totally agree on this. Dougie, if healthy, would be great for being super sub at the corners and can also play the outfield as well as Young, if necessary. Plus, a guy who can take a pitch, put the ball in play — perfect for off the bench. Him, Punto, Morales, wish we didn’t need to waste the 4th spot on a centerfield abckup (hey, didn’t the Twins put Punto out there in an emergency?).

Probably can wait until spring training to sign Dougie. Which brings to mind, would he be as good as a part-time pick-up as, say, Crede?

Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!

by rosterman on Dec 3, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Placido Polanco

Well I’m an idiot.

The Phils definitely just signed somebody to play 3rd and his name was definitely not Adrian Beltre.

by Mr. Smokum on Dec 3, 2009 2:47 PM EST reply actions  

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