Implications of Picking up Cuddyers Option and Trading for Hardy
by halfchest on Nov 7, 2009 3:17 PM EST
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PrintI like the Twins move to resign Cuddyer and the trade for Hardy but unless the Twins really open up the pocketbooks this restricts them for any long term signing this off season. The combined 2011 salaries of Nathan (12.5), Morneau (14), Cuddyer (10.5), Kubel (5.25), Mauer (20, likely), Baker (5), Hardy (7?) is a big load to bear (74.25 million). This and the fact that Slowey, Blackburn, Span, Neshek, Bonser, Young, Harris, Casilla, Tolbert and Liriano will all be in their 1st or 2nd years of arbitration at that point means the Twins have a lot of money already committed for 2011. I realize that some of those arbitration eligible players will likely be gone either through being non-tendered or traded but even if you lose half of those the rest could be set for big paydays (Slowey, Span, and Blackburn especially).
It's really going to be tough for the Twins to make any big commitments to other players if they hope to keep their own key players. I can really only see the Twins going after a one year type player this year(Beltre or Crede) to fill one of the holes at either 3B or 2B. One option would be to structure Mauer's contract in a way that 2011 is a cheaper year and make up for it over the rest of the contract. This makes sense because the Twins will likely be done with Cuddyer, Kubel, and possibly even Nathan saving them roughly 25 million in 2012. They will have to be the expendable players and likely someone out of the group of Tosoni, Benson, Revere, Hicks, or Morales will have to be ready to replace Kubel and Cuddyer at this point. Backloading Mauers contract might allow the Twins to go after a guy like Felipe Lopez and pay him 5-6 million over the course of a 3-4 year contract or Pavano to a 2-3 year deal.
Another option to consider would be packaging one of our top young prospects with pitching to get a 2B who might be blocked in another system. I'm not familiar enough with other teams farm systems to suggest any names but this is an idea that I hope the Twins are looking into. It lets the Twins keep payroll down thus being able to resign Mauer without back loading his deal causing problems in the future or giving them a shot at maybe picking up a veteran pitcher this year and/or next.
I hope I'm wrong, but I'm expecting the Twins to sign Mauer to a big extension and then the rest of the off season to be pretty quiet. Hopefully I'm wrong and they make a move to pick up a good OBP guy to hit between Span and Mauer but I just don't see it happening. Maybe someone like Polanco would sign for a 1 year deal, heck if Hudson and O-Cab did last year I guess it could happen this year too. The Twins will likely depend on Punto to cover 2B and Tolbert/Harris to hold down 3B until Valencia is deemed ready to take over. This isn't an awful scenario but it does leave the Twins lineup looking pretty bad should any of their big hitters go down for any amount of time.
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It isn't much different, however, Nathan's contract...
…is $11.250mm in 2011. The Twins hold an option for 2012 at $12.5mm with a $2mm buyout. I think the Twins will make a sincere effort to resign Crede to a similar contract as he had last year. He liked it here, he likes this team and with another back surgery isn’t likely to get much better. He just may take a bird in the hand and the Twins like his defense. This would give them someone solid until Valencia proves he is ready. If Valencia isn’t the answer, they can piecemeal thru whatever part of the season Crede doesn’t play with a combination of Tolbert and Harris.
I'm not completely sure what you're saying?
I realize Nathan’s contract is the same but it’s the other guys that make 2011 a tough year financially. My main point was that another long term contract could be tough to do even at 5-7 million a year. Mauer will likely sign a deal going up 7-8 million and letting Rauch and Punto go will cover that raise. However then Baker goes up 2, Cuddyer 2, Kubel 1.25 and then all the guys going into arbitration (Span, Slowey, Blackburn, Hardy etc.). I think you can figure an average of 1.5 million for those 4 making the Twins raise payroll at least 10 million from 2010 to 2011 thus making it hard for the Twins to commit to any free agents beyond a 1 year deal.
I’d really like to be wrong and see the Twins figure out a way to go get a middle infielder that can be solid #2 hitter and maybe even a veteran starter. I’d love to see the Twins take a risk on one of the injury prone arms that are available this year (Bedard, Sheets, Harden) but I just don’t know how it works out financially.
I agree with you on Crede, I really like the idea of resigning him because IF he stays healthy he can add a lot to this team and should be an even lower risk contract than last year. If they could do that or possibly pick up a veteran 2B the team would really have a nice looking lineup next year.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I pretty much agree
I think getting Hardy was the no. 1 personnel hurdle. They can offer Pavano arbitration, and he might take it. Mauer’s status is the number 1 business decision now. If they sign him and pay a king’s ransom, there won’t be anything left to get a big name for third or second or to be the ace of the staff.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 7, 2009 4:27 PM EST reply actions
Budget.......
Everyone is a movable piece…..
Do you keep Cuddyer and jettison Kubel, moving Cuddyer into the DH position…
The core of starters…can you pahse out one each season or the next four, repalcing with a minor league guyas they become expensive?
Are you set-up to try a rookie each season for the next few years…perhaps Valencia in 2010, Revere in 2011, Ploffe in 2012 and Tosoni…etc. etc. etc.
The Mauer decision actually ahs to be outside of the budget bubble. This is a career/franchise player and you have to look at him as Mr. Twin and a way to keep him in Minnesota as well as working for the Twins in some capacity long down the line…..
Or, do the Twins make the big plunge, expecially this year, and get those one or two pieces that might actually make them playoff competitive, rather than just divisional competitive. As long as a player remains healthy and shows some production value, they are a commodity that can be traded, sold and replaced by someone else.
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one question
on what planet would you keep Cuddyer and get rid of Kubel?
http://twinkietalk.com
http://thecollegehockeyblog.com
Kubel vs. Cuddyer
Potential trade value, contract easier to move.
Cuddyer is a well-liked face in Twins-land (some how) and can play a variety of positions, and could float into the DH role in the future (at less pay….maybe not….which is why the Twins need to restructure his contract NOW if they’d like to keep him beyond two years).
Kubel IS a stud, a lefty, and if he puts up similar numbers again like he did this year, he could be moved for repalcement parts, too, in a year or two.
All comes down to salary and what players want, in the end.
I always wished that Koskie and the Twins HAD better relations when he was a free agent (but money usually wins out) as he would’ve slipped nicely into the Twins DH role, who could also play third and backup first. Sometimes it’s ncie to have a DH who can play otehr positions (although the Twins are happy — overjoyed really — to have a DH that just hits fne fine fine after years of White and Monroe.)
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That ship has sailed
The Twins had five guys for the four outfield spots and DH, and they just traded one. I don’t see any way they’d trade Kubel now (although I agree with you on his value) without also acquiring a starting OF or DH.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
No way you trade Kubel
He’s 26, coming off seasons of 110 and 115 OPS+, and he’s set to make $ 5.25 million. You do not trade guys like that.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Bah!
You could just sign Eric Hinske for a fraction of that cost!
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Good one!
With that line, Dave Cameron lost 1/4 of his credibility.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Thanks
Referencing that Cameron column will never get old.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
not
that the comparison are projection weren’t dead wrong, but Hinske is a good player. He only got 224 PAs and played 200+ innings in the field and was a 0.8 WAR player. Extrapolate that, and he’s near a 2.0 WAR player. Which is what he was in 2008.
And he signed for $1.5 Million.
Agreed, CMath....
I hate it when people talk about just trading Kubel and going with Cuddyer for the future or something. They’re not the same. I love Cuddy, but Kubel’s bat is special IMO, and he’s only going to improve over the next few years.
No question Kubel is more valuable than Cuddyer,
But this team needs a RH bat with pop (Cuddyer) more than a LH bat, and most teams would love to get a LH bat with pop.
So, Kubel is a great asset for this team, but he would also be a great trade piece.
by montanatwinsfan on Nov 10, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
You have to give value to get value
Cuddyer is all ready in DH territory, and is not getting younger. I don’t think they should be trying to get rid of him, but if they can get good value there is no reason not to do it. Maybe the Rays would take Kubel for a good, cheap, young middle infielder? Or maybe find a better defensive outfielder for him?
by lookatthosetwins on Nov 9, 2009 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
Hardy will probably be closer to 5 million, I suspect...
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 7, 2009 10:24 PM EST reply actions
2011
I’m looking at 2011. I figure he’ll get a slight raise this year as he was paid roughly 4.5 last season, so I’m figuring about 5 but hopefully if he can play near what he did in 07-08 he’ll be in line for a couple million in 2011.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
My mistake...
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 8, 2009 10:36 AM EST up reply actions
Hardy
The Twins will probably just doa rbitration and wait-and-see, but if Hardy does start the season strong, I would hope they would re-visit his contract and go after one or two free agent years sooner, rather than next off-season. If he looks to be league average or better, would rather have that hole filled for the next 3-4 years than just two.
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agreed
I’d actually really like them to sign him to a 3 year deal with an option or 2 on it. The Twins have so little in the farm for MI right now that they really need to lock up a proven guy. I am very confident he’ll hit much better than last year and even if he never hits like he did in 07-08 his defense is very valuable. The Twins will be very well set up assuming that Valencia can come in and be at least league average and that Mauer is extended. The main hole is at 2B and I’m comfortable with that being plugged in by whoever we figure is the best of our MI prospects coming up (Singleton, Dinkelman, etc.) Between the glut of good outfield prospects we have working their way up and Wilson Ramos we should be able to fill the void of Kubel/Cuddyer pretty well when the time comes in 2012.
So yah I’m all for the Twins taking a risk on buying out a year or two of Hardy as long as it can be done somewhat reasonably. I just don’t want them to wait til after the season and if he does return to his All Star form he’s suddenly going to be commanding 10 million + a year which is just not affordable for the Twins at this point.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
"Unless the Twins really open up the pocketbooks..."
We can only hope. We have no context with the Twins in a stadium that actually generates above-average revenue. Prior to this offseason, the Twins ranked in the bottom five or six teams in the league revenue wise despite ranking in the top 10 attendance wise. With 3 million in attendance the next couple of years in a stadium where they actually get decent revenue for their attendance, we should see budgets in the $100-120 million range for player salaries. 2010 will be lower, just because they can’t make accurate projections without ever having played there. But after 2010, I look for them to open up. Again, we can only hope.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Revenue
In the back of their minds, the Twins are still thinking that they have to pay themselves back the $100+ million they invested in the stadium project, and the other millions they did in upgrades. So the sooner they can do that with 2010-22 revenues the happier they’ll be. They won’t admit it, but the bean-counters think that is necessary.
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I don't know about that
The stadium will help the team appreciate in value to double what it was in the Metrodome—more than they invested. I don’t think they have to pay themselves back.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'm sure.....
they’d appreciate it both ways. Owning everything outreight, and then able to borrow against it (i.e. what Pohlad already has done) from someone else……making money is the real game……
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Making money
The Pohlads make tons of money on their other investments. They have not made much money on the Twins. If making money were the real game, they would have cut their losses long ago. Heaven knows their old man tried to several times. But the boys and their children love owning a team as fans. Making money isn’t the real game, winning is. They don’t want to lose money. But they want to win within the economic constraints of this market. If they make money while winning, that’s just gravy for them. At least that’s the way it looks from my vantage point.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Paying themselves back
is not the same as servicing debt. Did ownership pay cash for the new stadium? I doubt it. More likely they borrowed against future value, and are now paying interest, IMO. Would take a chunk (not enormous) out of the bump in stadium revenue.
by Adam Peterson on Nov 9, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
Stadium revenues vs overall revenues
I’d like to see salary budgets in the $100M-$120M range, but I don’t think there’s a chance this happens. Yes, our revenue will increase with the new stadium. But to bump up salary $50M, we’d be talking about an increase of $100M or so simply from the stadium. Our local TV revenues aren’t changing…
Forbes puts the Twins’ 2009 revenue at $158M overall. Will the stadium bump this over $250M? By the way, that would put us 4th in the majors in overall revenue, behind the Mets and ahead of the Dodgers. This doesn’t pass my sniff test. I’m guessing it’s more likely the stadium bumps us $30-40M to around the middle of the MLB pack, around Seattle in the $190M range. So an additional $15-20M in salaries simply due to the stadium.
Solely speculative, of course.
by Adam Peterson on Nov 9, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
I still argue......
increased stadium revenue does not have to be split 50/50 between payroll/operations. Operations IS paid for. It doesn’t increase THAT much as you add revenue.
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But
But some of it has to go to servicing the debt on the $100 million investment in the new stadium. That could be $10 million per year (would probably take 15 years to pay off at that rate).
I still can’t believe that taxpayers will pay many times that.
The investment ais actually closer to $200 million
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Playoff $$
The Twins should be reaping the revenue bumps of their new stadium and World Series Championship by then. So, no worries.
Pitching
The Twins won’t be going to any world series with the pitching they have. They need an ace. Someone who another team fears. Someone who makes them the favorite no matter who they’re facing. Was there a single guy on our team who the Yankees didn’t want to face? Was there a single matchup where our pitcher was better than their pitcher? We’ll never match their all-star lineup of sluggers — though next year we’ll be pretty competitive! But since Santana left, they don’t have a true ace, and they’ll be a team other division champs hope to face in the playoffs.
I like the idea of a high risk, high reward signing on an injury prone veteran with huge upside. Otherwise who’s your game one starter in the playoffs? And against what team would he be the favorite?
I love the Hardy signing, and would love to see a few more infield upgrades. Their offense was fine last year, given their two MVPs and a pretty good supporting cast. But their pitching wasn’t quite there, and unless they address that, they may be good enough to win the AL Central, but they won’t win it all.
mistake
you don’t pick up this option, but make it known that you want to work out a deal with him. He is not worth 9.5M on the open market.
If you don’t want to do that, you do like San Fran with Freddy Sanchez or Seattle with Jack Wilson. Contract Extension.
Not a mistake
Cuddyer was a 130 OPS+ last year, he may well be in the peak of his career, he’s versatile, and he is well-liked by his teammates. He’s worth 9.5 on the open market and if he backs that up with another good year, he could be worth considerably more.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 9, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Versatile?
1b and RF is not versatile. Anyone can play those positions.
Also, poor fielding, good hitting outfielders are hard to find. Milt is right, he wouldn’t get 9.5 mil on the open market right now.
by lookatthosetwins on Nov 9, 2009 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
ah shucks
I get all red when someone buys into my rants.
by Milt on Tilt on Nov 9, 2009 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
Let's see what Bay gets
He was close to Cuddyer in production and defense this year, and he’s the same age. My guess is he gets $15 mil for three or four years. Matt Holliday, another good hitting, poor fielding outfielder will get closer to $18 mil for four years at age 29. As I mentioned, Bobby Abreu, a 36-year old DH just got $9 million a year for two years plus an option at the same price.
We’re talking about the Yankees and Red Sox here. They eat money in their Caesar salads.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
not cool
Holliday>Bay>>Cuddyer
Bay’s OPS is nearly 100 points higher than Cuddyers. And calling Holliday a poor fielding outfielder? Compared to Ichiro?
Cuddyer MIGHT get 10 M on the open market, but again, that doesn’t mean he’s worth it, or the Twins should pay for it. Why pay for career year 2009 in 2011 when you don’t have to?
by Milt on Tilt on Nov 10, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
Cuddyer vs Bay
Cuddyer OPS+ 124
Bay OPS+ 134
Holliday OPS+ 141
And, BTW, you don’t have to keep him after 2010. You can buy him out for $1 million after 2010. The option to do so needed to be picked up now, per the contract.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
My mistake
What I meant was, suppose they buy out his option for $1 million now. Then, he makes essentially $9.5 million in 2010, when Fangraphs says he’ll be worth $9 million. Then, suppose you get a $9 million player to replace him in 2011, your total payout is $18.5 million. That’s exactly what they are committed to paying Cuddyer over the next two years by picking up his option.
The risk in picking it up is he gets hurt or has another down year and you over pay him for 2011. The risk in not picking up the option is he has an up year and walks, and you can’t land a $9 million player after 2010. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to balance those risks by signing him. In any event, not signing him is not as cut and dried as you claim.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
how convenient
to take a one year sample. Career
Cuddyer: 110
Bay: 131
Holliday: 133
One of these players doesn’t have the track record.
by Milt on Tilt on Nov 10, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Versatility
Cuddyer has played every position except pitcher, catcher, and shortstop at the major league level (and he was drafted as a shortstop), and he’s been a regular for at least a few weeks at first, second, third, and right field. Remember, he was supposed to be the one who was going to save us from having to watch Luis Rivas back in ’04 or so, and he was the regular third baseman for much of ’05.
I’m sure he’d be a below-average third baseman and a well-below-average second baseman, but I doubt he’d be much (if any) worse than Harris there, and at least he has some experience with the fundamentals of playing non-first-base infield. He’s a good guy to have around in a short-term injury crunch, if nothing else.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
He is worth at least $10 million on the open market
Abreu got three years and $27 million. He’s a 35 year old DH who hasn’t had an OPS+ above 120 since we has 31. Cuddyer’s 30. When he’s healthy, he hits 120+. That’s what guys get these days. Do your research.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Cuddyer is
a plus hitter. Say you can project him to hit something in the neighborhood of .270/.350/.480
he’s also a poor defender. Something in the neighborhood of -10 below average. Say that puts him at 4.0 WAR for the next two seasons. There’s no reason to believe he’s better than these numbers other than ‘you really like him and you think he’s going to do so’.
IMHO picking up the option was the wrong move. The Giants didn’t pick up Sanchez’s option, instead gave him 2 years and 12 M. The Twins would have been smart to do likewise. Buyout, and then 2 years 16 M. I don’t see what’s so ridiculous about that.
And worse case scenario, you aren’t able to work out a deal and you end up having to pay below market value for a Eric Hinske type.
But of course, there’s the whole Joe Mauer situation. They decided they couldn’t buyout and have Mauer perceive that as the Twins getting rid of Cuddyer.
by Milt on Tilt on Nov 9, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
and
saying he’s worth 10 M and he would get 10 M are two separate things.
by Milt on Tilt on Nov 9, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Abreu has been consistently hitting at that rate.
Cuddyer just had a career year. You can’t project him to hit as well as he did this year.
by lookatthosetwins on Nov 9, 2009 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
Abreu and Cuddyer are very similar players
but Abreu has been consistent, and isn’t as much of a risk
Both players can be expected to be about -10 in right field
Cuddyer’s Bill James projection is .356 wOBA, or .273/.347/.478
This looks like a realistic projection – Slugging down a bit from his career year, but still higher than his career slugging
Abreu’s Bill James projection – .371 wOBA, or .285/.389/.444
This might be just a touch high, but he’s been consistently in this range for a long time now.
Anyway, Abreu should be payed slightly higher than Cuddyer, and in my mind, was overpaid by the Angels, who have a tendency to do that.
I’m not saying its a horrible move, but I think a team with our budget constraints could spend this money more wisely. If Cuddyer hits as well as last year, it will be an ok move. If he regresses, it will be a bad move. The truth is, their hands were tied – the fans would not have been happy had the option not been picked up, and Mauer might not have been thrilled either. But based purely on production, I don’t think this move was wise.
by lookatthosetwins on Nov 9, 2009 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
couple things
.273/.347/.478 is awful similar to .270/.350/.480. Am I Bill James??
The Angels did overpay (to make up for his $5M last season).
The option was for 2011. 33 year old Michael Cuddyer. The risk is significant enough in this move, that they should have declined.
Cuddyer projects as a +4 win player and is going to be paid 19M over the next two years. Hinske and Nady project as 4-3 win players will earn about half of that. Combined.
by Milt on Tilt on Nov 9, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
In 2011
Cuddyer will be 32 for the entire season. His birthdate is in March of 79.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 9, 2009 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
dang you
with your facts and knowledge
by Milt on Tilt on Nov 10, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
+4 wins? He was +2 this year.
MAybe +4 on offense, but he’s -2 with defense and postional adjustment.
by lookatthosetwins on Nov 9, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
2 wins at 4.5M/WAR = 9M. The twins buyout was for 1M, so the cost of the 2011 option was 9.5M. A slight overpay. Cuddyer’s popularity both with fans and in the clubhouse probably makes this worthwhile. It’s hard to quantify, but some players have marquee value to the franchise above and beyond adding to the team’s wins.
by Jon Kammerer on Nov 10, 2009 1:04 AM EST up reply actions
4 wins
for the two years. sorry I didn’t make that clear.
by Milt on Tilt on Nov 10, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
Mike Cameron will probably sign for less than that
and he’s a much more valuable player.
by lookatthosetwins on Nov 9, 2009 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
He's also 36 years old
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
even so
with significant decline in offense and defense you can project him as 50% better than Cuddyer.
by Milt on Tilt on Nov 10, 2009 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
Pedro Feliz
Is this an option for third?
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I could see it
if we decide not to go with Crede. Not saying I’d be happy. Other than 2004, he’s always been a below average hitter, .306 career wOBA, averaged about 14 runs below average the last five years. Defensively, very good, career 15.5 UZR/150 at third, but he’s seen a sharp decline the last two years (9.3, +5.0).
I’d expect Feliz would give us around 1.5 WAR. On the open market, this is about a $6M value. If we were able to get him for a bit less, perhaps $3-4M, I’d consider him if we’re not able to get Figgins or Beltre.
by Adam Peterson on Nov 9, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
Get off the Pedro Feliz bandwagon please
The guy’s bat sucks. His defense is not nearly as good as what it was. If you want to tender a 1 year deal to someone, offer Crede another shot. His defense is better, and his bat is better. He may only play for 3 months, but he will be far superior during that stretch, but with Valencia down in AAA that’s not a bad deal. I’d also argue that Valencia won’t be much better/worse than Feliz anyways.
Just make sure Crede and Boras understand that if Joe is going to miss more than 2 games in a row, it’s an automatic trip to the 15 day DL and a cup of coffee for Valencia…. It will probably keep Crede a bit more fresh anyways.
by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 10, 2009 8:27 AM EST reply actions
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