My top 25 Twins prospects
Everybody loves prospects lists. This is my 25th year of compiling one. I have to say I am not very systematic about it. I spend a lot of time reading about prospects, looking at stats and following minor league games. I then formulate an intuitive ranking, based on some hybrid of upside and performance. In addition to raw numbers, I try to factor in age, level and scouting into my evaluation. But I don't sit down with a computer program and feed all the variables into some formula. It's more like an eyeball estimate.
This year for the first time in my 25 years of making a list, several prospects had very little pro experience to help guage their prospect ranking. In those cases, it is all upside. But the Twins added more high-upside guys in one year than they have since I've followed the system--an indication that the Carl Pohlad days of nixing international signings and discouraging expensive drafting are over. We see the benefits of the Jim Pohlad era: Get the best talent money can buy when it's relatively cheap; develop it into high-end talent; and win. With the new approach, the second decade of the 21st century looks even brighter than the first for the Twins.
1. Kyle Gibson: The best pitcher in the 2009 draft not named Strasburg.
2. Miguel Angel Jean: The kid formerly known as Sano is the best position prospect the Twins have had since Mauer. He's just very very young.
3. Wilson Ramos: Look for a breakout year unless he gets hurt again. The best catching prospect in baseball.
4. Aaron Hicks: A disappointing season at Beloit does little to dampen his stock. He's got Torii Hunter tools.
5. David Bromberg: His numbers over the last three years rival Matt Garza's first two, but he's two years younger than Garza was at this point.
6. Danny Valencia: A late slump in AAA stands between him and a starting job in the majors.
7. Billy Bullock: I was shocked he was still available when the Twins drafted in the second round. He may have the biggest arm in the system.
8. Ben Revere: He has the best contact skills and batting eye the system has seen since Joe Mauer came through the minors. His arm and size limit his upside.
9. Angel Morales: The opposite of Revere--what he lacks in contact skills and batting eye he makes up for in power and arm.
10. Adrian Salcedo: He's only 18. But a 58/3 K/BB rate in the GCL makes you stand up and take notice. He's said to have a mid-90s fastball already.
11. Jorge Polanco: Before the Twins signed Jean, he was the best Latin prospect the Twins had signed since Cuba was closed. He's still very raw and could play in the DSL in 2010. But he has great tools.
12. Ben Tootle: Not many guys throw in the upper 90s with sink.
13. Rene Tosoni: He has not played a lot in his life. But when he has played, he's been very good. The highlight was winning the 2009 Futures Game MVP last year.
14. Carlos Gutierrez: His struggles in New Britain had more to do with fatigue than ability. He still possesses the best sinker in the minors.
15. Matthew Bashore: The 2009 sandwich pick is more than just a pitchability lefty.
16. Max Kepler: This guy has phenomenal tools. Let's see how he does as a 17 year old in the GCL.
17. Tom Stuifbergen: He has done very well in rookie ball. But what really excites me is how he pitched against the Dominican in the WBC last spring. He dominated major league hitters.
18. Alex Burnett: After he was converted to a reliever, he was lights out. Possibly the next Twins closer.
19. Joe Benson: Turned a corner last year and finally started to turn his tremendous tools into baseball skills.
20. BJ Hermsen: He pitched great in the GCL last year, and I don't think he's squeezed all the stuff out of a 6-6, 230-lb body.
21. Chris Parmelee: 16 HR and 27 doubles in the FSL is nothing to sneeze at.
22. Tyler Robertson: He's no longer the big arm that he once was. But he's a big strong lefty with plenty of upside and very good numbers last year in the FSL.
23. Derrick McCallum: The top position player out of the Big Ten last year.
24. Deolis Guerra: He held his own and occasionally dominated in AA as a 20 year old. Needs to work on consistency.
25. Mike McCardell: An injury limited him late last year. Otherwise, he's had a very good minor league career for a pitchability guy.
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Me 2!
Id love to see where you had Gomez last year, Mauer in 2001, Morneau whenever, and all the other lists.
Purple Haze is the worlds greatest Natural Resource.
by Percy Harvin My Fav! on Dec 1, 2009 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
Hard drive crash wiped out many of the lists in the 00s
I’d have to dig in my files to find the disks from the 90s. Before that, it was compiled on paper. I might be able to dig it up.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
You would think that...
….someone with a self-professed “high-profile” job in technology would back up his drive.
Amused observer of the old ladies backyard laundry gab.
by Johnny Safron on Dec 3, 2009 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
I back up all my work files on a work RAID
Some of the personal files didn’t get on my flash key drive. Don’t know how I missed them.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I won't succumb to the "homer" cries that are sure to come...
Ramos best catching prospect in baseball? Maybe two or three, but I’m not sure. I assume you think Jesus Montero is #2? Or do you think he will change positions?
Anyway… we obviously place different values on prior professional experience. I cannot rank Gibson/Jean/Bullock/Polanco/Tootle as high as you do until I see them perform on a minor league baseball field.
Other than that fundamental different, I think it’s a very good list, Cmath. Great work.
Formerly known as "Andersklasen."
Check out the best Twins' blog on the web: TwinsTarget.com.
Ramos...
….is the best catcher in baseball, in my opinion. I believe that Ramos will has the talent to become an annual all-star in whichever league he plays in. The biggest problem is how do the Twins get him playing time with Mauer in the lineup.
I have seen Ramos play. There is nobody that could have made better throws on two steals against the Yankees (I recall the second was Gardner). He was the MVP of last winter’s Caribbean Series championship. He hits for average and power. I doubt there is a better catching prospect out there and would rank Ramos in the top ten prospects in all of baseball.
You can't go down the "I've seen him play" road...
Unless you’ve also seen Santana, Posey, and Monero play numerous times. I agree that Ramos is one of the best catching prospects in the game, though. (I rank Ramos at 6 on my Top 15 list.)
Formerly known as "Andersklasen."
Check out the best Twins' blog on the web: TwinsTarget.com.
It is a homer position
I make no apologies for that.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
all of minors....
top catching prospects … I would have to go with
1. Buster Posey -(S.F.)
2. Jesus Montero (-But will probably end up being a 1st basemen or even DH) -Yankees
3. Carlos Santana -(Cle.)
4. Tyler Flowers -(Chi Sox)
5. Wilson Ramos Twins
6. Jason Castro -(Hou.)
7. Jonathan LuCroy -(Mil.)
8. Wil Myers -(K.C.)
9. Tony Sanchez -(Pit.)
10. Willin Rosario -(Col.)
11. Travis D’Arnaud -(Phi.)
12. Kyle Skipworth -(Fla.)
13. Angel Salome -(Mil.)
14. Josh Donaldson -(Oak.)
15. Luis Exposito -(Bos.)
Honorables: Alex Avila -(Det.) , Lou Marson -(Cle.) , Max Stassi -(Oak.)
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 2, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
Santana is 2nd IMO
also I like Castro better than Flowers, but that’s just small nit-picking
http://twinkietalk.com
http://thecollegehockeyblog.com
I agree with this as an offensive ranking, mostly
But Ramos is the best defensive catcher in the minors.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Also, Ramos' numbers were hurt by his injury last year
Given a full healthy season, I think he’d be right up there with Santana offensively. Defensively, as I said, he’s the class of that list.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Lets project out a couple years...
…to say 2012. Assuming they resign Mauer to a 5-6 year deal, look for Ramos to come up in Sept 2010. So by 2011, we should have the wonderful situation of two catchers who are above average defensivley. And both should be in the lineup every day. Expect we will see the Twins carry three catchers with Ramos being DH and able to give Mauer every 5th game or so off.
+1
You can move Kubel to left and carry Morales as a bench player.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
By 2011
Yes, Ramos can be the backup. Morales could be tradable.
By 2012, you make the decision on Cuddyer and Kubel and Young (you have some outfielders coming into the mix).
Ramos could be DH/catcher/ mauer could be catcher/DH. Excellent solution.
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
I have to factor in the recent draft choices and international signings
By my estimate, this was the best draft the Twins had in the 00s. And these three international signings were the three best in the 00s. You can’t ignore them just because they haven’t had much of a chance to play. I understand your concerns, and it’s one of the toughest lists I’ve compiled because of those concerns. But I just can’t ignore top talent.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I was
going to yell HOMER at that too.
Buster Posey.
by Milt on Tilt on Dec 2, 2009 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
Posey is a beast
He is the best
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
Matt Weiters
He’s so awesome, he gets a second rookie year. No Sophomore Slump for this man.
Ramos is the best catching prospect in baseball
In my Homer (home team, not Simpson) opinion. Montero’s got a big bat, but not near the defensive abilities. Plus, he’s a Yankee prospect, so no telling if he’s actually good or just the product of hype—and if you don’t believe in the Yankee prospect hype machine, I’ve still got some Hensley Meulen rookie cards for sale.
There’s also Santana and Posey and I’m sure a few other’s, but I think you can argue successfully that Ramos is the best. I’ll put my chips on him to prove that right this season.
As far as a guy like Jean goes, how many current prospects, withminor league experience, would even receive a 3.5 million dollar bonus to stay in the organization? I.e pay the money or they walk. Not many.
At any rate, if you can ignore the rankings and just look at the 25 best prospects in the system, its a pretty good list of players.
Im sorry
but there’s no way he’s better than Santana, and no freaking way he’s better than Posey.
http://twinkietalk.com
http://thecollegehockeyblog.com
I think...
What stops Ramos from being listed with Santana and Posey in the national prospects lists is: 3 parts health record and 1 part being a year behind them (in terms of being MLB ready). Being able to avoid injury is a big part of being a sucessful major leaguer but being a catcher and getting hurt a lot is a bad combo. That said it seems that none of Ramos injuries are major or repetitive. By mid season I think everyone will be agreeing with Cmath and Roger.
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
Who is the best catching prospect in baseball?
…So I went and did some digging. These are all last year numbers. Ramos was in the EL at age 22, Montero was in the EL at age 20, Santana was in the EL at age 23, Posey split his time between a lower level and AAA at age 22 (will only use the AAA numbersO:
Throwing out runners: Posey/38%, Santana/30%, Montero/32% and Ramos/41%.
Fielding %: Posey/.985, Santana/.988, Montero/1.000 and Ramos/.989
(Note: Montero and Posey had the fewest chances)
Hitting: Posey .321/.391/.511 in 131 at bats
Santana .290/.413/.530 in 428 at bats
Montero .317/.370/.539 in 167 at bats
Ramos .317/.341/.454 in 205 at bats
Ramos is again tearing up the Venezuela League and is currently one of the top hitters in the league. Montero only had 26 at bats, but is hitting only .115. Posey played in the AFL and in 71 at bats, hit .225/.345/.338. Santana is playing in the DWL, but has only 4 at bats.
Defensively, looks like Ramos has the edge. Hitting wise, they all have done a good job with Ramos having a bit less power. Although his winter league play would seem to indicate that the power is there. Is Ramos better than the other three, maybe, but one could argue all day that any of the others is equal. On the other hand he is certainly an equal prospect to any of the three.
Ramos can play defense though
Santana and Montero are below average defensively and might not even stay at catcher. So I would have to go
1 Posey
2 Ramos
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
I can buy that
Posey is a great prospect.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
isolated discipline
That’s another difference that stands out to me is the ISO for Ramos of only .024 compared to the other guys. All in all though it’s a small sample size and we’ll find out a lot next year about all these guys.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Ramos is much better this winter...
…at .362/.426/.601 in the VWL.
still
that still doesn’t indicate great plate discipline. What’s his BABIP there? I’m guessing very high.
I agree with Han Joelo in that
you could Argue for Ramos being the best DEFENSIVE catcher in baseball while factoring in Defense with more weight than offense….
but If you’re talking about the bat first and then the glove and all the other Defensive stuff
I’d have to go with Posey and Santana first and second and then maaaaybe Ramos 3rd….
Largely because Montero and Flowers haven’t shown they can stay at catcher because of their inability to play defense.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 2, 2009 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
Love your list CMath...
…Personally, I would put Ramos at #1 with Gibson and Jean at 2-3. Ramos is a proven prospect who is very close to major league ready (he may be), while the others still have to prove it on the field. I suspect all three have a similar upside, Gibson a #1 starter, Ramos and Jean as frequent all-stars.
definitely a different list
I like the fact that upside is higher rated. It gives you an idea of the guys who should be above average and possibly stars… I’d still lower guys like Jean (sano) or Gibson simply because they haven’t played yet, but in terms of upside I think you have that right.
Guerra
I’ve seen him fall on many lists and I just think many of us are too down on him because of the initial hype when he came over to the organization and the disappointment that he hasn’t dominated. I’ll be very interested to see what he does this coming season.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Me too
I think he’ll continue to progress in AA this year. He’s still a year younger than Bromberg and a level above him. But he has struggled since coming over. Part of that is on the Twins: They didn’t want another Liriano situation, where it was too late to fix the mechanical stuff. So his struggles with consistency is just about muscle memory as he changes his mechanics. Every year he has improved though. So he’ll take the next step, and, if he does, he’ll climb this list next year.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Nice
Two guys from very different places. I read LEN III; said Kepler stood in against Neshek in a simulated game. Do guys actually swing in a simulated game? Anybody know exactly what a simulated game is? I used to watch my nephew play simulated Mariners games. He played all positions, offense and defense. Good workout.
Yes, "simulated game" is short-hand for "live batting practice"
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
A simulated game is a game I didn't feel like playing on MLB The Show.
Formerly known as "Andersklasen."
Check out the best Twins' blog on the web: TwinsTarget.com.
Isn’t “pitchability” someone who is “crafty” and “works the plate” instead of having great stuff? Leftys are generally pitchability guys because they can get by with less stuff/more deception versus most right-handed hitters. Righties tend to need better stuff since batters are used to seeing righties and thus more acclimated to hitting them.
Yes
McCardell is a little better than Manship. These guys tend to do very well in the low minors but start to struggle as they go up the ladder. But some pitchability guys end up doing well in the majors. Blcakburn, for example.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
very controversial list
Ballsy to drop Revere to 8, but I agree there. Not too much potential besides speed and high average
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
I have to say I like not having a bunch of relief pitchers in the top 25
I probably would have put Slama in there, but relief prospects are overrated in general.
by lookatthosetwins on Dec 2, 2009 7:02 PM EST reply actions
Matt Wieters was never a prospect
He’s been a hall of famer since the moment he was born.
by lookatthosetwins on Dec 2, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Didn't he hit five consecutive homers last year?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Isn't he like Joe Mauer only with power???
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
nah he's washed up
He’s not exactly a 20 year old any more…
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Dec 3, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
no on Wieters
this time LAST year he was a prospect and #1 or #2 in all of the game….
but has graduated with the Orioles in the 2009 reg. season and no longer qualifies
otherwise he’d be #1 on anyone’s catching list….
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 2, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
#2
Now that he’s not a prospect but a player, he’s behind one Joe Mauer.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Thanks!
Great job with the enticing thumbnail descriptions — you made me feel little excitement about almost every one of these guys — thanks!
Posey
Good work Cmath, Buster Posey simply cannot cather. He will move away from the position soon. Ramos does everything well, he is a well rounded catching prospect who we Twins fan should be very excited about.
???
Thats the first I’ve ever heard that. I thought the consensus was that it may be sketchy but he’s making strides and should be an average defensive catcher.

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