Twinkie Town 2010 Top 50...Voting for Prospect Number 12!
by roger13 on Dec 14, 2009 4:12 PM EST
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PrintIn our second run-off of the season, Deolis Guerra beat Chris Parmelee for the Tenth position in this year's poll. Guerra had 75 votes (55%) of the 135 votes cast. Parmelee had 60 votes (45%) to finish in the eleventh position of the 2010 Top 50. Congratulations to Deolis and Chris!
In the voting for Prospect #10, all of the players scored more than five percent of the total votes cast and will be included in round twelve. We will bring back two players who had appeared in previous rounds for round 12, Anthony Slama and Max Kepler-Rozycki.
Please continue with your suggestions for future rounds in the comments section. In another note, I will be travelling tomorrow afternoon. I expect I won't be arriving until 8-9pm, thus, today's poll will stay open until that time. The next poll will be posted later tomorrow evening. Thanks!
The selections for our first eleven rounds were:
1 - Miguel Jean (fka Miguel Angel Sano)
2 - Aaron Hicks
3 - Wilson Ramos
4 - Kyle Gibson
5 - Ben Revere
6 - Danny Valencia
7 - Angel Morales
8 - David Bromberg
9 - Rene Tosoni
10 - Deolis Guerra
11 - Chris Parmelee
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I'm interested to see who wins this round
There doesn’t even seem to be a clear cut top 3 here.
by TwinkieBaseball on Dec 14, 2009 4:28 PM EST reply actions
It gets real muddy here
Which is why I gave the benefit of the doubt to the player who actually performed decently in the majors last year – Manship. Downside probably means as much as upside now.
Sorry about that Poll heading...
…should be "Who is the TWELFTH best prospect in the Twins system? I don’t think I can edit a poll question and fix it.
Click edit post
go down to poll and click on the pencil in the top left hand corner of your poll. I think
Purple Haze is the worlds greatest Natural Resource.
by Percy Harvin My Fav! on Dec 15, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
Burnett
Has highest upside in group of choices among those who performed at AA or higher. Carlos Guetterez is right there. I tend to have more trouble picking the 16 – 18 year olds who haven’t played in A ball before those who have a track record and scouting reports of their strengths and their weaknesses. I will pick a higher upside A baller over a potential 5th starter in AAA however. The way I see it now and feel free to chime in with your thoughts.
Burnett has top closer potential.
Slama has top set up man/ closer
Gutierrez has #2 or 3 starter potential.
Benson looked real good too in A ball last season
This is a close call between Burnett and Gutierrez for me with Benson just behind these 2 as he was injured in A ball last year and made huge forward strides. Slama is a little further down the list. I am going with Burnett cause he doesn’t have the injury history and looked a little more ready while Gutierrez is developing arm strength to avoid fatigue.
With all of these young guys, Kepler, Hermsen, Sano, Salcedo and more, I cannot wait to see this list in about 2 years.
Doofenschmirtz Evil, INC.
Phineas and Ferb
I don't see how you can say a reliever has the highest upside
by lookatthosetwins on Dec 14, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
You could
If he has a plus major league pitch: 95MPH fastball, pre-injury Liriano slider. Or if he has some radically funky stuff like Neshek.
Not that I agree
I think Salcedo and Gutierrez have more upside than Burnett and Slama. I’m not sure Kepler even knows how to play baseball yet.
Sample size issues with relievers
The confidence of judgement on a reliever has to be lower than that of a starter unless there are scouting reports to help your judgement. The reliever is going to be spotted in favorable platoon situations. Also the reliever is going to have a lower number of batters faced which means a smaller sample size and more opportunity for high variance (unusually low or high ERA). Bobby Keppel had a lower ERA and WHIP in Rochester than either Slama or Delaney and in more innings.
Slama has had great stats
the last few years. With Burnett going to relief we’ll see if he can match up.
by b1 on Dec 14, 2009 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
Burnett just touches 93 with not much movement
Gutierrez sits at 93 with great sink. Gutierrez has much higher upside.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Haven't been elected yet
From BP list:
8. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP
10. Joe Benson, OF
11. Billy Bullock, RHP
12. Jeff Manship, RHP:
13. Tyler Robertson, LHP:
14. Adrian Salcedo, RHP:
From Sickels:
5) Adrian Salcedo, RHP, Grade B-: Best of the pitchability right-handers in a system full of them.
6) Billy Bullock, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+; great stuff but will he throw strikes?
11) Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Grade C+: Ground ball machine. Could rank as high as seventh.
12) Joe Benson, OF, Grade C+: Excellent tools and is showing signs of skill development. Could also rank as high as seventh.
14) B.J. Hermsen, RHP, Grade C+: Great rookie ball performance, projectable, need data from higher levels.
15) Ben Tootle, RHP, Grade C+: High-ceiling arm, needs to improve command.
16) Anthony Slama, RHP, Grade C+: Deceptive delivery with high strikeout rates, tough on right-handed hitters, could slot into middle relief role in 2010.
17) Matt Bashore, LHP, Grade C+: Could rank higher if he stays healthy.
18) Tom Stuifbergen, RHP, Grade C+: Could be a Grade C. Another pitchability guy. Gets lots of grounders.
19) Jeff Manship, RHP, Grade C: Possible fifth starter or long relief type.
20) Tyler Robertson, LHP, Grade C: Stock has dropped a lot, but looks like a potential LOOGY to me.
OTHERS (all Grade C right now): Oswaldo Arcia, OF; Alex Burnett, RHP; Rob Delaney, RHP; Brian Dozier, SS; Chris Herrmann, OF; Steve Hirschfeld, RHP; Luke Hughes, INF; Max Kepler-Rozycki, OF; Bobby Lanigan, RHP; Andrei Lobanov, LHP; Jose Lugo, LHP; Derek McCallum, 2B: Mike McCardell, RHP; Josmil Pinto, C-DH; Trevor Plouffe, SS; Tobias Streich, C; Brad Tippett, RHP; Mike Tonkin, RHP; Loek Van Mil, RHP, Blayne Weller, RHP.
Guerra and Tosoni didn’t make his top 20.
Hardball Times:
Minnesota Twins
5. Adrian Salcedo: Scouting reports are tough to find on Salcedo, but anyone who puts up a nearly 20:1 strikeout to walk ratio over any extended period of time deserves attention. Add in the fact that he is just 18-years-old with an athletic, wiry frame and you have a promising prospect that any team would love to have.
8. Joe Benson: Sporting a bit of that power / speed combination that we all look for, Benson is a likable prospect, but he isn’t a star in the making. Yet, with increased plate coverage and a more consistent swing will come better contact skills to go with his impressive patience. He could be a future fixture in the Twins’ outfield.
10. B.J. Hermsen: Hermsen has the look of a bulldog, but his game in the early going has been all about the control of his low-90s fastball. His upside isn’t ace-like, but I can’t help but be impressed by his pinpoint control at this point. We will certainly know more next year when he faces A-ball competition.
CBS fantasy:
5. Tyler Robertson, SP, 22
Baseball America wasn’t jazzed about this guy a year ago, ranking him 12th in the organization, whereas we saw him in their top five. BA’s ranking should rise after he went a solid 8-8 with a 3.33 ERA, 103 strikeouts and a .259 batting-average against in 143 1/3 innings in high Class A. Robertson should open in Double-A, but seeing the Twins rotation fall apart this season makes us believe he will be in the majors before the end of 2010.
more
Top Prospect Alert.com
- Adrian Salcedo
- Max Kepler
FanGraphs:
6. Joe Benson, OF, High-A
DOB: March 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 2nd round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
The first six prospects on the Top 10 list are all hitters, and Benson makes it four outfielders in the Top 6 picks, so it’s obvious where the organization’s strengths lie. The former prep football player has taken some time to develop his skills on the diamond, but the organization’s patience is starting to pay off. Benson spent the season in high-A ball where he hit .285/.414/.403 as a 21 year old. Injuries limited the outfielder to just 327 plate appearances. In the past, Benson has struggled to get his average above .260 so we must be cautious in our optimism considering that his ‘09 BABIP was rather high at .380. The right-handed hitter showed improvements in his walk rate, which rose from 8.6 to 14.9%. His strikeout rate remained high, though, at 28.1% and it was not justifiable by the .118 ISO rate. Durability is also a concern with Benson, who has appeared in just 149 games over the past two minor league seasons.
7. Jeff Manship, RHP, Majors
DOB: January 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 14th round – Notre Dame
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus curveball, slider, change-up
Manship made his MLB debut in ‘09 and proved to be a valuable arm for the club, as he made five starts and six relief appearances. Overall, he allowed a few too many hits with 39 in 31.2 innings, and he struggled with his control by posting an unusually-high walk rate of 4.26 BB/9. Manship began the season by making 13 starts in double-A before moving up to triple-A, where he started another eight games. With a four-pitch mix and a plus breaking ball, Manship has the potential to be a No. 4 starter for the Twins, but he’ll have to improve his high-80s fastball (-1.87 runs above average per 100). He also needs to throw a few more first-pitch strikes, as his rate of 52.7% was 6% below the league average.
9. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – University of Miami
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up
Gutierrez’ future role – starter or reliever – is still up in the air. The right-hander is a ground-ball machine and he posted a worm-burning rate of 62.7% in ‘09. If he can miss a few more bats and increase his strikeout rate from 5.08 K/9, then Gutierrez could certainly be something special. It was a tale of two seasons for the right-hander in ‘09, as he posted a 3.55 FIP and 0.16 HR/9 rate in high-A, before moving up to double-A where his FIP was 5.02 and his home-run rate jumped to 1.03 HR/9. The main culprit for the FIP increase was Gutierrez’ BABIP, which went from an incredibly-low .229 to .326. Struggles with his command led to the increase in homers. Commanding his sinking fastball in 2010 will be key, as Gutierrez has yet to improve his secondary pitches to the point where they can miss bats on a regular basis (The slider has the most promise).
10. Tyler Robertson, LHP, High-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 3rd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up
Robertson sneaks on to the back-end of the Top 10 list thanks to his youthfulness (22), his handedness (southpaw) and his ground-ball tendencies (career 52.6%). The young left-hander needs to miss a few more bats, though, to truly take his game to the next level; he posted a strikeout rate of just 6.47 K/9 in high-A. He does a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and posted a home-run rate of 0.44 HR/9. Interestingly, his BABIP has decreased each season since his debut year of ‘06, and it reached a low of .305 in ‘09. Robertson has had some pretty extreme splits over the past two seasons. This past season, left-handed batters hit .200 with a strikeout rate of 7.33, compared to right-handers with a .300 average and 5.61 K/9 rate.
Who to add?
I’d add Bullock and Robertson to the next round.
A huge upgrade in talent
from just a year ago by all appearances. Last year’s Top 20 included Tolleson, Shooter Hunt, Luke Hughes, and Humber. This year, all those guys might fall off, and Tyler Robertson (who should be added, don’t you agree?) May end up at 18-20, not 8th.
A few more to begin considering: Billy Bullock, Matt Bashore, Jorge Polanco, and Blayne Weller.
I saw Robertson pitch last year.
I can’t say I was impressed. He had some bad luck, and he couldn’t overcome it. One game does’t make a year but that was my take. Arias and Ericson threw good relief.
by b1 on Dec 14, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
Im going to say Kepler because of the tools
although I like Gutierrez. No future relievers should be even under consideration right now IMO
+1
When the Twins wanted a reliever they bypassed Delaney, Slama & Burnett and brought up Manship. That should tell you something. Most major league relievers were minor league starting pitchers. There are exceptions, Jesse Crain is one, but in general it is still true.
They didn't bypass Slama and Burnett...
…Burnett was moved up to AA from High A about mid-season. Slama moved up to Rochester about that time. When looking at the Twins successful relievers brought up through the organization the past five years, there really are only two…Crain and Neshek. Both were relievers throughout their time in the minors.
No future relievers?
A majority of the better pitching prospects become relievers in MLB, right? I predict that Gutierrez, Manship, Bashore, and Duensing all work more innings in relief than as starters during their careers. Shades of Hawkins and Guardado, except it seems the transition to relief is being done in the high minors with greater regularity, a la Burnett.
Please balence the voting selections.
Benson and Roxycki were the only non pitchers. I know, but it could be time for Rams, R Santana, Gonzales,Williams,Pinto. Mybe not. Bullock is the olny other pitcher I would suggest.
-1
Rams should be coming up soon but there’s no reason for balance, especially when the top 11 elected players only have 3 pitchers. Half the players on the MLB roster are pitchers.
I voted Salcedo
He is the highest upside pitcher in the system. I would add both Bullock and Tootle at this time. THey would be second nad third in terms of upside, imho.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Salcedo for me as well
Highest upside of anyone remaining. Gibson and possibly Guerra have higher upside, but Salcedo’s right up there.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 14, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions
I think Salcedo has higher upside than even Gibson
I rate Gibson number 1 in the system because he’s the most complete pitcher. But his upside is a #2 starter. Salcedo could be an ace someday.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
#2 pitcher in several lists
See Sickels and Hardball Times. Behind Gibson of course. I guarantee a GM is going to ask for Salcedo in trade rather than Slama.
Not if he needs
a relief pitcher to help his team in a year or two. Salcedo will not see the Majors for at least 4 years.
by b1 on Dec 15, 2009 6:34 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think closeness to the majors is that important
Slama, for example. He’s done well, but he was a 34th round draft pick for a reason. He might be as good as Guerrier or a similar middle reliever. But he’ll never be a closer in the majors. I just can’t rank a guy like that in the top 20s when there are so many high-ceiling guys yet unranked.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Put it this way
Every other ranking system (BA,BP, Sickels, etc.) rates players primarily on upside. The question is, what role is the player likely to play when he gets to the majors? Potential starters and closers are always rated higher than middle relievers. Potential center fielders are given more credence than potential corner outfielders. These determinations are not arbitrary; they depend on the relative rarity of players in certain roles. So a rare talent is just more valuable than a run-of-the-mill commodity.
Again, this is the way other ranking systems work. Why should our system be different?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
It shoud't
Slama is going up against Manship end of the rotation pitcher and Benson a fourth outfielder?
by b1 on Dec 15, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Slama is going up against Salcedo, Gutierrez, Hermsen, Bullock, Tootle, Stuifbergen, and a few others
All of whom I rank higher. He’s had great numbers, don’t get me wrong. But he doesn’t throw especially hard. So when major league hitters time his fastball, he will struggle. This is one area where minor league numbers really favor relievers. Hitters never have a chance to figure them out because minor league pitchers move along as soon as the hitters get comfortable with them. Slama is effective because he’s deceptive. That only gets you a year or two of major league effectiveness.
Remember German Gonzales? He had the best minor league numbers of any closer candidate prior to Jesse Crain. Gonzales threw from all different arm angles and he threw across his body. Minor league hitters couldn’t hit him. He had one good September with the team and the second time major league hitters saw him, they crushed him. That was it for his cup of coffee.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Versus a minor league SP
Who has to face the same batters multiple times. I think you can add at least a run of ERA onto Slama if you’re going to compare him to an equivalent minor league SP prospect.
I like the comments
I’ve never seen Slama throw. I don’t hear much about him either. I just see him doing well and moving up the ladder. I hope to see how he fairs in a Sept, call up
by b1 on Dec 15, 2009 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Slama should be around the 15, or 16 range overall here
not #11
But Kepler shouldn’t sniff the top 12 he should be around 20 or 25 with Jorge Polanco….
I think 12 has gotta be either Benson or Gutierrez !!!!
quite easily actually……
Rene Tosoni is good.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 15, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
I'd like to think Gutierrez
is a top prospect, but 6.19ERA in 52 innings at AA?? 46 walks to 65 K’s on the season?? I hope he’s working on a pitch, or location to explain those numbers. I just know people say he has a good slider or drop, thats fine but at some point you’ve got to produce.
by b1 on Dec 15, 2009 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
Salcedo is my pick
Salcedo is to pitching prospects as Hicks is to position players, IMO. Still a lot to prove, sure, but to hear the rave reviews about him…he can turn into the kind of pitcher that you give up multiple prospects for.
Anthony Slama
Even though he’s 25, a 1.87 ERA, 13.3 K/9, and 1.04 WHIP in 183.2 innings for a minor league career total is pretty darn good and hard to ignore. I was close to picking Benson, but then thought that he’s only had one good year so far. If he continues as he did this year, then that’s awesome, but whose to say that he won’t revert to his old numbers next year.
Check out Crain's minor league numbers
0.94 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 2.00 ERA with half of his 163 innings at AAA. He was also 3 years younger than Slama.
Neshek: 2.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 in more innings at the same age.
Slama hasn’t done anything that Neshek and Crain didn’t do better. That’s not to say he won’t contribute in the majors, but he hasn’t proven it yet.
sound like your not happy
with Neshek or Crain. Crain was awesome when he first came up, so was Neshek. You proved why I voted for Slama.
You aren't understanding
I’m saying that Slama hasn’t proved as much as either one of them at the same age. Travis Bowyer looked pretty good once too.
Its all a guess as to who will
step it up. Some keep improving other fall by the way side. Some take a year or two or a change of team. I just think Slama has done well at each level. We’ll see about Major league hitters, I hope by years endm, also Delaney and Van Mil.
by b1 on Dec 14, 2009 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
Awesome being a solid middle reliever, not exactly much upside there
by lookatthosetwins on Dec 15, 2009 1:09 AM EST up reply actions
They all count
We missed Nechek. Theirs value as a set up man and Nathen won’t be the closes forever.
by b1 on Dec 15, 2009 6:37 AM EST up reply actions
There is value as a top setup man
About 1.5 WAR x 6 years = 9 WAR. Span and Baker are 2x as valuable as that. On the other hand, a marginal bullpen guy is worth basically nothing more than the minimum. There are LOTS of guys who can put up a 4.5 ERA in the bullpen.
I guess they'll all be in the next round, less one
guess, how many will be in a run off, (my guess 3) Will it take more then one run off???
I went with Joe Benson here.....
Salcedo and especially Gutierrez is CLOSE.
Any factual evidence at all towards this rumor?
Carlos Carrasco, Alex White along with Tanner Scheppers to the Twins
Glen Perkins and Beau Mills to the Rangers
Francisco Liriano and the rights to Boof Bonser + a PTBL to the Indians
(will Smoak and Feliz go to Fla. for Josh Johnson?)
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 14, 2009 8:02 PM EST reply actions
Went with Kepler... awesome name.
It’s hard to pick at this point no one player seems head and shoulder among the rest.
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
Agree
Its hard when there are so many low minor high upside guys.
There is not much track record to go off.
by clutterheart on Dec 14, 2009 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
Cmath, you're probably right
about the upsides of Tootle and Bullock. Maybe these are the next Bromberg and Burnet types who will leap forward in the rankings. Interesting to note that Hunt, Hicks, and Morales were the only players at Beloit and below to garner Top 20 status last year.
There’s so much to look forward to next year in the system: Gibson, Sano, Polanco, Tootle, Kepler, Bashore, and Bullock to name a few. This may be the most gratifying (or exasperating) season in years. Makes me want to relocate to Ft. Myers.
Who wins this round?
If it goes to a runoff I’m going to request the loser of that runoff get thrown back in the pool rather than being named the #13 prospect. 2nd place isn’t going to be much higher than 3rd or 4th.
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