Realistic 3B Options - One Week Later

OK.. so maybe the most defining trait I have is that I'm wrong a lot. However, I am also honest enough to revise my thoughts on things as new evidence proves how wrong I am.
So, after several good points made in the comments and a week of big news affecting the 3B market here's how I see things now. 
Someone asked if I would do this for 2B as well and I don't think I will. I think there are fewer 2B on the market and more teams interested. Add to that the fact that just about any mediocre fielding 2B that produces offensively can be signed as a 3B (Placido Polanco) or elsewhere and it seems an infinitely harder task to lay everything out (though not as hard as guessing which SPs end up where). Also, while I like the idea of the Twins picking up Felipe Lopez too, to be honest it just seems a lot more likely to me they will go after a cheap 3B in a market with several options. I just hope a decent bat is left at a price the Twins can afford.


So with that said, for whatever its worth, here's where I reckon the 3B market is at now...

TEAMS W/ HIGH PRIORITY TO FIND A 3B  (these teams will get new 3B or re-sign FA 3B)

1.) Orioles

TEAMS THAT MAY PICK UP A 3B IF YEARS & $$ ARE RIGHT

2.) Giants Gillaspie isn't ready.  Do they want to use Sandoval at 1st or third? Even with all of the 3B on the market it may still be easier to find a bat to sit at 1B but have to imagine they're highly interested in the 3B market. Uribe turned down SF's offer.

3.) Astros If they don't keep Tejada and move him to 3B I'd think they would atleast pick up one of the 3B options. 3B is a priority from an article on the Astros site "But don't expect the Astros to break the bank to bring in a big name to play third. They'd be content with Blum and Keppinger."

4.) Angels Chone Figgins is gone. If Brandon Wood doesn't get his chance now when will he ever? I don't know how high the Angels are on Wood though or why wouldn't they have tried Chone Figgins elsewhere to give Wood a few more ABs the last few years. Most of their budget is going after Lackey or other SPs but even if the job is Wood's I bet they atleast get a FA 3B (Troy Glaus returning home?) to share time with him.. just because even if its puts them over budget, its not that big of a deal in the scope of their budget. Especially if they get rid of Gary Matthews Jr.  
5.) Twins Most of whats left in the budget has Mauer's name on it. But its reasonable to think the Twins might be able to afford a small upgrade / short tem gamble at an infield position and mediocre SP or (1) solid FA in additon to resigning Mauer. A 3B signing would likely be 1-2 year barring a trade of Valencia.

6.) Cardinals  Same situation as the Twins but with Pujols and David Freese in lieu of Mauer/Valencia, more financial flexibility in St. Louis, and Freese is somewhat of a more accomplished and better 3B prospect than Valencia. Popular consensus seems to be that if they can't resign Holliday they will upgrade at 3B and let Freese get some more time in the minors or trade him. Personally, if Holliday goes I would throw the money at one of the top starters instead of another bat.
7.) Marlins If they keep Uggla, you'd think they would try to shift him to 3B to use Coglahan at his more valuable position. (Who cares if Uggla doesn't like it -everyone knows he's not a long-term player there) Otherwise, if Uggla goes they'll surely be interested in the same short-term, middling 3B options as the Twins. 

TEAMS POSSIBLY INTERESTED IN A 3B (MAYBE?)

8.) Pirates (stick w/ andy laroche until Pedro Alvarez is ready?)

9.) Rockies (probably stick w/ ian stewart or is he a viable option @ 2B? they seem pretty convinced they have no need for atkins)

10.) Padres I only put them in the list because I read that they were looking at 3B options somewhere. But as long as Kouzmanoff and Headley are on this team it doesnt make any sense at all to bring in another 3B. They really shouldn't even be on the list.  Really, these last (3) teams are only on the list as a sign of good faith that I did actually consider the rosters of all the MLB teams.

Next, here's a list of available 3B on the market with my guesses on where they go.

FREE AGENT STARTERS

Adrian Beltre (31) - Type B (Orioles, Giants, Astros) Pure guess but I think he'd rather play on the West Coast. But in a big 3B market in a down economy the Orioles are one of only a few teams with money to spend and they need a solid 3B for long enough (3 years atleast) that they could sign him for a price & length close to what Beltre is asking for. 
Troy Glaus (33) - Type B (Angels, Giants, Astros ) He's from California, he went to college in California, he played for the Angels for so many years, I bet he still lives in CA.. My guess is he moves back to the west coast or atleast somewhere warm.
Joe Crede (32) - (Twins, Cardinals, Marlins ) I think Crede would take a hometown discount to be a Cardinal. I don't think he'd have any problem spending the remainder of what little is left of his career as a Twin either. Marlins could sneak in and steal him if they overpay a little on years and /or $$? Or if the medical reports are bad enough maybe he's forced into retirement (hope not).  
Mark DeRosa (35) - Type B  - Its hard to even guess.. He's asking for so much more money than he's worth. I guess he goes to whatever team overvalues him the most and most dramatically overreacts to not getting their first choice at 3B? Or maybe everyone acts rationally and a team like the Twins/Cards/Marlins can pick him up for reasonable $$/years? 
Pedro Feliz (35) - (Twins, Marlins, Rockies) God I hope it doesn't happen but it seems teams like the Twins and Marlins are the only ones that would go after Feliz as a starter. Hopefully he goes to the Rox where he could have a decent role as a cheap bench bat / added versatility.
Melvin Mora (38) - Type B - He may just retire but otherwise he'll probably go to God-knows-what team on a cheap contract as a gamble-bench bat. Or maybe a team like the Twins /Marlins take a gamble on a 1 year incentive contract for 3B... which would seem to be a better option than Feliz atleast. 

FREE AGENT STARTERS BUT MAY PLAY POSITION OTHER THAN 3B IN 2010

Miguel Tejada (36) - Type A - not offered arbitration - I have no idea.. for all I know some team thinks he can be their SS for the next 3 years. Would be neat if the Twins got him but I think he gets more years on his contract than the Twins are willing to offer (money probably isn't as big of an issue).
Juan Uribe (31) Doubtful to stick with Giants now, he has atleast some value if he stays in the NL. Cards, Rox, Astros and Marlins are all decent fits but my money is on the Marlins.
Adam Kennedy (34) - reunion with the Cards or Angels as utility depth / spot starts? Could fit with the Astros or a number of other teams. I'd like to think the Twins would realize that they already have a player that is basically Adam Kennedy or slightly better already (Brendan Harris). 

STARTERS THAT MAY BE AVAILABLE BY TRADE

Dan Uggla (stays in Florida?)
Kevin Kouzmanoff (stays in San Diego)
Mat Gamel (3B/ OF bench bat for Brew Crew?)
Brandon Wood (starting 3B in LA ?)
Garrett Atkins (likely a cheap 1 to 2 year gamble for some team as a starter or 3B depth... Twins, Cards, Angels?)

Finally, here are what I now see as the top realistic options for the Twins.

TOP REALISTIC OPTIONS FOR TWINS

1.) Dan Uggla (whether he plays 2nd or 3rd - pref. 3rd) - not sure if this is realistic or not. I believe he would be eligible for FA after 2011 at which point the Twins would likely let him go in exchange for (presumably) Type A draft picks. Uggla's arbitration contracts for 2010 and 2011 would probably put the Twins a bit over our conservative guesses on what the Twins payroll will be.. but hey, a guy has a right to dream right? Besides, its really not an outlandish proposition if the Marlins place any value on the numerous middling SP prospects the Twins have.

2.)Miguel Tejada ( I don't see it happening because of the years but he'd be nice on a 3 year deal for 6 to 7 million. Play at 3rd and some time at SS, maybe 2B too? What would happen to Valencia & Hughes? I think atleast one of them is bound to be an adequate and cheap option this year or next... a 3 year FA would destroy an opportunity to save payroll for several years.. Twins don't skip those opportunities)

3.)Troy Glaus  (only on a 2 year 6 to 7 million contract max if he'll come to MN at all)
4.) Mark DeRosa (only on a 2 year 5 to 6 million per contract max)
4.) Joe Crede   (only on a 1 year PA-incentive contract max)
5.)  Mat Gamel (only if price is around Perkins, Duensing, or Manship.. between him, Valencia, and Hughes one is likely to be atleast adequate and cheap for a few years)
6.) Garrett Atkins (only on a 2 year 3 to 4 million per contract max) - who knows.. maybe the home /away splits are somehow an aberration?
7.) Melvin Mora  (one year PA-incentive contract max w/ on year club option ) maybe there's enough left in the tank for one year of decent 3B and slightly above average production. Low risk gamble anyway.

*** NOTE - the $$ and year amounts (like all things in this post) are pulled directly from my butt. Its just my immediate thought at the moment what each player is really worth.

Please No.... (rank from most to least horrible)

 

1.) Juan Uribe  - I don't know how his glove is at 3B and frankIy I don't really care because I watched him for a long time as a White Sox and I feel like I have a pretty good idea of what he is at the plate. No thanks, I'd rather have Harris or even Punto at 3B all year.

2.) Pedro Feliz - Less putrid than Uribe and maybe possible to carve a role for him off the bench but why bother? Just give the ABs to Harry.

3.) Adam Kennedy - I don't think the Twins would lose anything beside valuable salary room but , again, why bother? Just give the ABs to Harry. Same guy at this point in their respective careers.