Twinkie Town 2010 Top 50...Voting for Prospect Number 5!
by roger13 on Dec 7, 2009 4:18 PM EST
32 comments
With exactly 200 votes cast for our fourth best prospect, recent top pick Kyle Gibson led the way with 90 votes. Congratulations Kyle! Ben Revere was a solid second with 50 votes. Joe Benson, Alex Burnett and Chris Parmelee each had one or two votes, thus, all three will be removed from voting for the next spot.
Added to the poll for our fifth prospect will be former first round pick Carlos Gutierrez, this year's second round pick Billy Bullock, former first round pick Trevor Plouffe and Jeff Manship. Manship pitched less than 50 innings for the Twins last summer, thus, retains his rookie and prospect status.
Thanks for your suggestions of players to consider in future rounds. It helps Seth and I with each selection and is appreciated.
The selections to date are:
1 - Miguel Jean (fka Miguel Angel Sano)
2 - Aaron Hicks
3 - Wilson Ramos
4 - Kyle Gibson
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Great Job so far Guys
-Roger and Seth…
Its going very well if you ask me….
I went with Ben Revere here, I was considering Angel Morales. but Revere has proven quite a bit at both the single and high single A levels… Where as Morales has only proven himself at what he does best, at Elizabethon and only in the second half of last year at single A Beloit…..
I would probably expect to see some votes for last years #1 Danny Valencia and SP David Bromberg this round as well.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 7, 2009 5:08 PM EST reply actions
Steve...you mean
…Morales has only done what he does best…………hit home runs, got lots of RBI’s, stole bases and played great defense!
hey yeah I guess that is very true
he is a legitimate 5-tool threat or at least really close.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 7, 2009 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
Morales is great
I think he is sometimes underrated or forgotten when he shouldn’t be. I know for some reason I keep unfairly overlooking him when I go over Twins prospects, don’t know why. I think at first I got scared off by his high K rate, but that was much improved last year.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Dec 7, 2009 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
I agree he is the forgotten prospect behind Hicks and Revere.
My personal list is:
Ramos
Revere
Morales
Hicks
Jean
- But the way the vote is going I am clearly in the minority….
by clutterheart on Dec 8, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
Could Valencia...
…be hurt by always being last?
Probably, but also probably not by any important amount
I know there’s a lot of data studying name variation in political polling, but it boils down to a difference of a few percent based on who’s mentioned first. That effect is probably lessened with a poll with a lot of candidates like this one. This is also probably a higher information polling public than the general public who votes in elections. Here people come in having some idea of prospects already, and probably know to some extent who they are going to vote for before seeing the list.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Dec 7, 2009 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
This is getting tough.
I’m voting for Morales once again, but there are starting to be guys who should be ranked under five. They’re not better prospects than Morales, though…
Formerly known as "Andersklasen."
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Why Plouffe?
Maybe you should stick to prospects that are ranked in the top 20 by someone, somewhere. Plouffe doesn’t show up in the top 20 on anyone’s list but Burnett and Parmalee do.
And in the last round...
…Burnett and Parmelee got a total of 3 votes between them. What we are trying to do is get a consensus of who the readers of Twinkie Town like for top prospects. Plouffe is a former first round pick that has moved very rapidly through the system…..lets take a look. If he doesn’t get votes he will come off the next round and we will try someone else!
I disagree
Just because they weren’t the 4th best prospect doesn’t mean they aren’t the 5th best, especially when only a couple people get votes. Don’t throw players at the wall and see what sticks, stay with the guys you think are the best candidates. If they weren’t in anyone’s top 20 list they shouldn’t be in the poll right now.
We have to eliminate someone...
…and set the basic rules that if someone isn’t getting any votes, they are eliminated for the following round. Doesn’t mean we don’t bring them back a few rounds later.
Doesn't make sense
If you eliminate a player, you’re going to replace him with someone you think is worse, that person won’t get a vote and you’ll replace him with someone even worse. Pretty soon you have 4 viable candidates and a bunch of dross (like above). Burnett, Salcedo and Tosoni all got votes as the 2nd best prospect but they aren’t available to vote on for the 5th best prospect. I think they all need to be brought back for round 6 along with Parmalee and Benson.
I am not certain what the definition of "dross" is...
…however, I suspect it isn’t complimentary. As for finding players that are on someone’s top 20 lists, SIX of the players we are currently voting for were ranked between #5 and #14 by our own CMathewson. Now I have a great deal of respect for the time and effort CMath puts into evaluating talent and sharing it with us on this site. The two that aren’t are Trevor Plouffe and Jeff Manship. Manship certainly deserves a look as he is already somewhat of a proven commodity with the Twins. Plouffe was a highly touted former first round pick who Ron Gardenhire has frequently made favorable comments about Plouffe. Plouffe made it to AAA a lot faster than nearly most other Twins prospects and certainly deserves a chance for voters to support him. If he doesn’t get any support , he will be off the next round and someone will return.
Unfortunately, there is always going to be a problem for some when a player they really like (and I like Tosoni for example as much as anyone) isn’t on the list to vote for. That is why we established a set of rules before we started and will stick to them for all 50 rounds. The good news is that if someone came off the list and are a legit prospect, they will likely be back a few rounds later.
Your rules aren't amenable to the best process
SIX of the players we are currently voting for were ranked between #5 and #14
The 4 guys we’re voting for (and I didn’t complain about), Bullock (who has little name recognition but is defensible) and Gutierrez who he ranked #14.
Plouffe wasn’t in the top 10 last year, didn’t get any better and has no business being here. Manship isn’t a bad choice but there are better ones.
You will know if your system is broken if a person reappears on the ballot and wins that round.
So you have a burr under your saddle...
….because I included a former first round pick, Trevor Plouffe. OK, I get it…you don’t like Plouffe and don’t want to see him anywhere in the near future. Unfortunatley some of us feel differently about him. I had him at #12 (position players) in my annual ranking with five of the players ahead of him no longer prospects or no longer in the system. Thus, Plouffe is a very deserving candidate to add at this point. And yes, adding Plouffe was my decision. Manship was Seth’s recommendation.
Not really
I have a problem with the “didn’t get votes so he’s banished” part of the system. It makes you choose players that are worse and will also be banished and gives the best guys less competition. If you had put Rob Delaney on the list I wouldn’t like that either.
I voted Valencia
The only thing between him and a solid major league career is the organization’s preference for veterans, imho.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I switched to Morales
From Revere last round. I admit I get bored voting over and over for the same guy, so in a moment of whimsy, I went for the guy with the higher upside.
Ironically, perhaps in a year or two we’ll be saying the same things about Jean that we are about Morales—great tools, but too many (strikeouts, errors, etc.)
Which is to say some warts will inevitably show up
Or not. Still this voting is kind of the opposite of BCS polling. Undefeated teams that haven’t been exposed to stiffer competition are penalized. In our poll, we see a little bit of the opposite.
Still, I can’t argue with how the voting has gone. Given a chance at a runoff, I’d go Hicks #1 over Jean, (and Ramos over both of them.)
Tough choice between Revere, Morales, and Valencia for me.
But in the end I went with Revere.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Dec 7, 2009 8:21 PM EST reply actions
I threw Bromberg in there too
Its exciting to have this kind of depth, even only 2 or 3 of the top 8 or so reach their potential we should be doing very well
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot.
+1
Bromberg should also be in the mix
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Dec 8, 2009 12:06 AM EST up reply actions
I think Valencia has been given a bum rap
Valencia was rated #1 last year and had a solid year at AA and AAA. It looks like he will be passed by five players (including two new ones to the system) anyway, at least in the eyes of the fans. I think the main reason that the Twins are downplaying his chances of winning the 3B job in spring training stem from their desire to keep him in the minors long enough to get another year’s service from him and maybe arbitration.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Dec 7, 2009 9:10 PM EST reply actions
I dunno
The reason I’m not too high on Valencia is because I don’t see the upside. None of his tools are bad, but none are really plus, either.
by Eric in Madison on Dec 7, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
Upside
If I recall when Kuble was move up the ladder I did’nt see him as a 30HR guy. If I recall he seemed to hit .350 every stop. I projected him as a .300-.330 guy with gap power. sometime the power comes with age and better pitching at Pro level. I see Valencia a lot like Cuddyer. .275-.285AVG 20-30HRs 85-100 RBI’s, but It might take a year or two. Still waiting on Delmons RBI’s and Power. Span’s another that improved at the Pro level. It’s just a guess as to how the hitter progresses in the Pros. Some do! Some Don’t!
by b1 on Dec 8, 2009 9:47 AM EST up reply actions
I thought he'd hit 30 some day
His HR/AB ratio in 2004 suggested a 30 HR guy who could hit for average. Then again, I don’t think I’ve ever been as high on a hitter as I was on Kubel at the end of 2004, and that includes Mauer.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
You could say that
Gibson and Sano should not be in front of him, but Jean’s upside seems to the sky and Gibson is someone who is projected to move up quickly.
Lists change! Valencia didn’t really have a break out year last year, and so his upside is seen as lower than then guys like Hicks and Ramos
by clutterheart on Dec 8, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
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