Twins Off-Season Question #5: When Does Joe Mauer Get Extended?
by Jesse on Feb 1, 2009 10:23 PM EST
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PrintA: By March, 2010. That's not an arbitrary deadline.
It's true that Joe Mauer's current contract doesn't expire until the end of the 2010 season, but common sense tells us that we don't want to wait that long to extend the best catcher in baseball. No matter how good a player is, the Twins will always operate on a cost-versus-benefits ratio with players not under team control, and waiting to the last minute would likely mean we won't be happy with the outcome.
Not to point out the obvious, but doing that means that the Twins wouldn't just be bidding for themselves, but against every other team in baseball. And getting into a bidding war with the Yankees and the Red Sox isn't something Minnesota wants to do. This organization needs to ensure they're in a bidding contest of one, and to do that they need to address this issue early, and on Mauer's terms.
Which also means this issue would have to be hammered out prior to the start of the 2010 season. With of the kind of guy Mauer is, discussions for an extension aren't likely to happen during the year. He'll prefer to avoid off-field distractions when he should be focusing on the game. That brings us to March, 2010.
Obviously, the sooner this gets done, the better position the Twins will be in. Pressure will build over the next 13 months, and if they haven't completed a deal by that juncture, I have to believe the chances of it happening at all decline precipitously. Because even if Mauer is the kind of guy who would take a "home town discount" in order to stay in Minnesota, and he very well could be, it'd be hard for anyone to turn down a salary that's nearly twice what you could make by staying put.
All of that is pretty much common sense. My next question: how much money is Joe Mauer going to sign for?
As it stands, Joe is due to make $10.5 million in '09, and $12.5 million in '10. If the Twins are trying to get an extension done before this season starts (which is preferrable, in my book), those numbers can stay as starting points. As for how long the contract should be for, it should be for at least an additional three years, which would be 2013. Personally, I'd want to tie Mauer up through his physical prime, or between the time he'll be 31 to 33 years old. Split that difference, and sign him through his age-32 season; or 2015.
For reference, although I'm not sure how relevant it will be, here are the other nine top-banking catchers in baseball for 2009:
Jorge Posada, New York Yankees: $13.1 million
Kenji Johjima, Seattle: $8 million
Ramon Hernandez, Cincinnati: $8 million
A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox: $6.25 million
Bengie Molina, San Francisco: $6 million
Victor Martinez, Cleveland: $5.7 million
Jason Varitek, Boston: $5 million
Brian Schneider, New York Mets: $4.9 million
Jason Kendall, Milwaukee: $4.6 million
If you're paying money for talent, then you have to pay Joe Mauer more than all of these guys. And more than a few of them combined.
So your five-year extension/seven-year contract for Mauer starts off with $10.5 million in 2009 and $12.5 million (a 19% increase) in 2010. Another 19% increase for 2011 would pay Joe $14.875 million, but because he and Justin Morneau are like two peas in a pod we'll take that back to an even $14 million. It's an arbitrary move, but it saves ego while ensuring a premier player getting his due. Duplicating that figure for 2012 and 2013 (when Morneau's contract expires) should still make him the highest-paid catcher in baseball. Finish the back end of the deal with two years at $16.5 million, which leaves us with this final line: seven years, $98 million.
That's an average of $14 million per season. Is that fair? You tell me, it's just my starting point. All I know is that if Minnesota allows Mauer to get a whiff of the open market, they will be absolutely crushed. I don't want that to happen.
But all the talk about years and money is just speculation. The bottom line is the issue on the horizon; the one better dealt with today than this time next year, and certainly better than November 2010. It's a different scenario than the Johan Santana situation, but the rules are the same: act early to put yourself in the position you want to be in. Minnesota failed to do that with Santana. Hopefully that lesson is still fresh in their minds.
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Looks like Twins Geek would call me an optimist.
His idea is to sign Mauer to a full seven-year extension, making it a nine-year contract. Worth $142 million.
Check it out, he wrote it about two weeks before I did.
Even though I'm congentially pessimistic
I thought Twins Geek’s K was more than necessary. I think you could do a 5 year extension (right now), tying him up for 7 years, but I suspect it would cost more than your figures. Probably more like 7/110. You might be able to do this via similar per year figures, but with a significant signing bonus.
The advantage of this for Mauer is that he STILL may be in line for one more fairly big contract after that one.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 1, 2009 10:58 PM EST reply actions
I don't see us paying Mauer 14 Million in a season
And we don’t have to
10.25 MM
11 MM
12 MM
12.5 MM 2012
option?
End of contract….
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 1, 2009 11:17 PM EST reply actions
Fangraphs puts Mauer's value...
at 26.9m in 2008, without accounting for defense. And he could easily get 20-25m a year on the open market (due to his premium hitting at a premium position). That’s in a year where he should have won MVP, but he had a better offensive year in 2006 and I don’t doubt he can repeat 2008 several times over a long term contract.
I understand that he’s a hometown guy, but do you really think he’ll leave 10-15m a year on the table? When he knows exactly how weak the Yankees/Red Sox/Mets are at the position? I think you’re crazy if you think we can get Mauer for 10m a year.
I start off at 15m and go from there. If he takes anywhere near that, I’d sign him in a heartbeat. 4 years and 45.75m is definitely not going to cut it – maybe if you knock off a year.
He's getting $12.5M in 2012
No way Mauer takes a pay cut…
by Adam Peterson on Feb 2, 2009 9:05 AM EST up reply actions
I think you need to explain your logic a bit more.
Because if the Twins want to extend Mauer, and let’s not fool ourselves because they do, they WILL have to pay him $14 million in a season, and probably more.
Do it do it do it
Do it now. I’m too emotional on Mauer, it isn’t the most rational or intelligent way to make decisions, but I don’t care what the Twins have to do, Joe Mauer should be a Twin for most or all of his career.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Correction Adam...
…Joe Mauer should be a Twin all of his career.
Last year the Twins front office surprised us and did something very good…used some of the money they were under budget with up front payments to lock up Morneau, Cuddyer and Nathan to long-term contracts. I have had a feeling all winter that they were going to do the same this year, beginning with Kubel which is done. I also thought they would add two years to Mauer’s contract this spring using a couple million of the savings they have this year as a front-end payment to lower 2011 and 2012. I expect they will wait until after spring training begins to see how his recovery is coming, but I still believe this will happen before they break camp the end of March.
Posada is overpriced
And Mauer is already the next highest paid player. I think you try to sign him this offseason, because right now he has to be worried about getting injured over the next two years. That is the negotiating advantage to the team, that the player has risk that can’t be diversified, so it is worth it to sign for less, with guaranteed money.
I also don’t think you sign him for more than 5 years out (because of that injury risk). I think you give a contract that goes $15.5 m, $18.5 m, and $21.5 m (so in total it becomes 5 years, $78.5 m, or a 3 year extention at $55.5 m), but you give him about $10-$15 m upfront, to take the actual charge this year, when you have it in your budget. Then, you can pay even amounts of $14 – $15 million per year in the final three years. You can also add an option that vests automatically given a certain number of PAs, or even better, a certain number of games at catcher.
The important thing to remember is that Mauer is likely to move away from catcher in the next 5 years or so, which is a good idea, but makes him a less valuable player.
Length of the extension
I think a 3 year extension on the order of $55-$60M total might get this done, but probably not. From Mauer’s perspective, he’d be locked up for the next five years, and he’s still eligible to become a FA after 2013 (his age 30 year), when he should still be plenty valuable. A longer extension could limit his long term earning potential if he’s not eligible for FA until age 32 or 33.
I’d offer a 3 year $55M extension with a vesting fourth year option, potential total of around $80M. Today.
Ultimately, I don't think he'd go for that short an extension
though it’s not impossible. From his point of view, if he can stay healthy and play well for 2 years, he’s looking at one of the biggest contracts in history. This lessens the incentive, it seems to me, for him to piecemeal it. He isn’t under serf wages anymore, so there isn’t that pressure either.
I think you have to really make it worth his while—we’re talking 9 figures or close to it, to make him do it.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 2, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
Mauer will make his dough
The rest of the budget needs to be structured around him. I doubt he’ll take much of a home-town discount either, which pegs his value in the $150 million, 7 year territory. Bill Smith would get run out of town if he let’s Mauer go to Boston or New York.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
2010
Do you think it’s a coincidence at all that the Red Sox recently gave Jason Varitek a one year deal with a one year option and still haven’t found their “catcher of the future?”
Joe Mauer knows about the other pastures already available to him so some of this is not just the Twins doing their homework, but also the Twins convincing Minnesota’s own to remain in Minnesota.
wut
[snark]
Wait, so you’re telling us that
a) The Red Sox would, in an ideal world, like to sign Joe Mauer because he’s an amazing player and they have buckets of money, and
b) Joe Mauer is likely aware that he will have several suitors for his services as a professional athlete, and will command an enormous salary for performance of same?
Good thing we have you around here to help us navigate these troubling waters.
[/snark]
Anyway, who in their right mind would sign Varitek to more than one year, even in Boston? $5m is an insane amount to be paying him anyway.
formerly known in these parts as adamb
Gone?
They should have signed him to an extension this offseason.
It will be somewhat interesting to see what if anything the economy does both to teams and long-term contracts in the coming years. I could definitely see a downturn in ticket sales & revenue for teams this year.
Visit my D2 Baseball Blog - Northern Sun Baseball
Nah
They have time. If they had extended him around the time that Teixeira signed, it would be for comparable numbers as Teixeira. Since then, the market has lost a lot of value. If they signed him now, my sense is he would sign for 10% less than Teixeira for the same number of years. I don’t see the market improving for players any time soon.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Tex?
Sorry – We all like Mauer, and he is good, but not Teixeira good. He also isn’t a free agent, and isn’t a Boras client.
Mauer and Tex have been in the league approximately the same amount of time.
Mauer’s career line is .328/.413/.451.
Tex’s career line is .290/.378/.541.
I will take 90 points of OPS for 35 of OBP. And Tex’s numbers have been improving (OBP of about .400 and SLG of about .570 over the last two years).
Now, I know you are going to say that Mauer plays a premium defensive position (and is one of the best) and you’re completely right. But Mauer’s career expectancy is much lower than Tex’s because of it, and he won’t be as valuable at another position. Tex also happens to be one of the best 1B in the league.
In summation, the Twins would be stupid to offer 8 years $180 million. Mauer isn’t worth it. I’m sticking with a 3-4 year extention on what he already has, with significant money up front, and possibly options that he can earn, or player options at the end. Player options should be for lower amounts.
Defense
Tex is a first baseman. Mauer is a catcher. Relative to the league average (or replacement level) at their respective positions, Mauer consistently outproduces Tex.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
bunk
mathewson: Texiera has been a better rbi, homerun and run prodcer than almost any 1st baseman in the game for several years. it is highly arguable that he is a more valuable player than Mauer in general.
Fine
Be that way. And go ahead and deny the validity of VORP while you’re at it. Morneau has better VORP than Teixeira over the last three years. Mauer has better VORP than Morneau over the last three years. The difference in VORP between Mauer and Teixeira is not all that close. And that doesn’t even take into account the fact that two of those three years, Teixeira played in an extreme hitter’s park.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Mauer is a franchise player
When all is said and done, he will have a banner hanging from the rafters at Target field. Unless he gets hurt, he’s a future hall of famer—at this trajectory, he’ll be the best catcher ever. And you want to dink around with his contract? You’ve been listening to KFAN too much.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
mauer versus Tex over the last 3 years
I absolutely think that we would have had better records in each of the last 3 years if we had Texiera instead of Mauer. he provides more of what we need—power and rbi’s. If they had equal contracts I’d trade them straight up right now without a doubt. And we’d be a better team. This comparison is valid ’casue they were in the same draft and we could have had Texieira.
This is a silly argument.
Hindsight is 20/20. Might as throw in Mark Prior, too.
By this logic we could walk through every single draft, pick out ANY successful player taken behind anyone the Twins selected, and then say “See, if we’d drafted Player A, we’d be a better team.” Unfortunately, people can’t see the future.
And honestly, the Twins have done pretty well with Joe Mauer. He’s the best offensive catcher in baseball.
And finally, if the Twins HAD selected Teixeira, do you really think he’d still be in Minnesota? If the Rangers, Braves and Angels don’t want to pay him, what makes you think the Twins would?
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