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Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

Can the offense repeat 2008 performance?

The high batting average with RISP has been discussed on many posts.  But, to me, it was more than that last year.  It wasn't just how well the Twins hit with RISP, it was how much better they did EVERYTHING offensively...that is what makes me wonder.  For example,  the Twins batted .305 with RISP (tops in the majors)  versus  .263   when nobody was on base (12th in the majors).  But what is not mentioned as much is that the Twins also had an OBP of .380 with RISP (tops in the Majors).  Yet, when nobody was on base, the Twins had an OBP of .317 (18th in the majors)

So, when nobody was on base, the Twins were below average at getting on base...but when someone was in scoring position, the Twins were the best team in baseball at adding runners.  Not only that, the Twins slugging percentage when nobody was on base was 27th in all of baseball at  .379     but when runners were in scoring position, the Twins slugging percentage was .446 (4th in the majors).   The Twins had the fewest extra base hits in the majors when nobody was on base (228)...and they had 9th most extra base hits with RISP.  The Twins also hit the most sac flies in the majors (72).  So they executed several aspects of the game very well with RISP...and over a lot of plate appearances...

With RISP the Twins hit better, got on base more and slugged at a higher rate...not just marginally higher...but 63 points higher in OBP and 67 points higher in Slugging percentage.   The Twins had the second highest OPS in the majors with RISP.  But with nobody on base, the Twins were 25th in OPS.

The Twins had 3373 plate appearances with nobody on base.  And, the Twins had 1814 plate appearances with RISP (4th in MLB).   The Twins, to nobody's surprise, hit the fewest solo HR's  in the majors (55).  So they scored the fewest runs with nobody on base and the 4th most runs with RISP (684).  

Is it possible to repeat this level of achievement with RISP?   Well, in 2006, the Twins had very similar results, although, not quite as dramatic a disparity between results with nobody on base and RISP.  In 2006 the Twins had an OBP of .330 with nobody on base, but their OBP with RISP was .373 (almost as high an OBP with RISP as we had this year)   And the Twins slugging % with nobody on base was .412 in 2006....but with RISP in 2006, the Twins slugging % was .448 (higher than our slugging % with RISP this year)

The OPS with RISP in 2006 was .821 ...the OPS with RISP this year was .826   not a big difference.  So..yes these kinds of results can be duplicated more or less.   The Twins scored 684 runs with RISP in 2008, versus only 642 with RISP in 2006...but then the Twins had  nearly 100 more plate appearances with RISP in 2008.  The percentage of runs scored to plate appearances was pretty similar in these years.  So, again, these kinds of results can be duplicated.  

By the way, the LA Angels had somewhat similar results in 2007.  They scored a relatively low percentage of runs with nobody on base...and scored a similar number of runs with RISP (648).   They saw their numbers rise, in general, with RISP (although not nearly as much as the Twins).  The Angels had to manufacture runs in 2007, because they did not have much power either.  They hit a few more solo HR's than the Twins...and they managed to hit 32 HR's with a runner on first only....so that added to their runs scored when not in scoring position...but they managed to get runners into scoring position at a similar rate as the Twins...they had 1782 plate appearances that year with RISP and produced similar numbers as the Twins with very similar power (or lack thereof).   

It could be argued that it is not so much how the Twins performed with RISP that is so unique...it is how big the disparity was between how they performed when nobody was on base versus RISP.  The Tigers were similar in 2007.  They had a batting avg. of .311 with RISP versus only .275 with nobody on base.  The Tigers in 2007 had an obp of .327 with nobody on base and .383 with RISP...so that is a 55 point swing.  And they scored 693 runs with RISP with 1800 plate appearances...The Twins scored 684 with RISP this year..so that is only 9 fewer than the mighty Tigers with RISP....But the Tigers slugging percentage was only 25 points higher with RISP that year...whereas the Twins slugged 67 points higher this year.  I have not researched this as thoroughly as I would have liked..but I have not yet found a team that raised both their team OBP and Slugging anywhere near 60 points with RISP as the Twins did in 2008.

So....if the question is, can the Twins produce extremely solid OPS with RISP, the answer is yes....they did it in 2006 and 2008 ...but can they repeat a 60 point increase over their performance with nobody on base?   That seems very difficult to do...and one more thing...while the Twins have done this before in 2006 and 2008....they came nowhere near these kinds of numbers or increases in any other year...in 2003  we scored 801 runs...one of our best years under Gardy, but a much more powerful team that year and far lower percentage of runs scored with RISP ...so there is not much precedent for this other than 2006 and 2008...maybe what really happened is we caught lightning in a bottle......twice...

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I say yes

The Twins offense will not drop off the face of the earth this season. Will they put up the same number of runs as last? Perhaps not, but I think they will be close to last year’s numbers.

If you look at the current crop of players and their best prospects and recent drafts, I think you see a key component into the Twins’ dramatic RISP excellence: speed. Now that steroids and other PEDs are being tested for and player’s stand to lose out a lot more, HRs are trending back down to historic norms. I looked at Phil Mackey’s projections yesterday for AL hitters and I don’t think he had anyone jacking more the 40. Seems like just yesterday there were at least a dozen players in a given year hitting 40+ HRs, with another half dozen hitting 50+. I think the Twins are on the leading edge of the post-PED offensive strategy, at least in part.

Getting on base more would help significantly in general, but I think the RISP disparity in the Twins’ batting lines is evidence of how dramatically having guys like Gomez, Span, Punto, and Casilla sprinting around the bases changes the outcomes of a given at bat. If the speed of the Twins on the basepaths with a man on first allows them to turn more first to thirds into first to home, or allows them to turn more plays that usually only allow a second to third progression into second to home, other teams eventually will start compensating, changing the outcome of the at-bat more towards the batter’s favor.

That’s my take, anyways. Tell me the Twins aren’t thinking something similar with guys like Span, Revere, and Hicks. Long balls are great, but having a team full of doubles hitters and runners who can turn singles essentially into doubles, not to mention guys who can score on singles, is, I think, going to be one of the new offensive templates of the post-steroids era. Power doesn’t matter as much if the guys on the basepaths fundamentally alter the way the other team plays defense. (Don’t get me wrong, power is nice and very necessary, but it’s not the end of the world if the Morny and Kubel don’t break 30 HRs either, or if Mauer never breaks 15-20.)

by biggity2bit on Feb 18, 2009 10:45 AM EST reply actions  

Home Runs

If nothing else, we ought to hit more home runs than last year.

by ianmader on Feb 18, 2009 11:41 AM EST reply actions  

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