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Around SBN: Post-UNC Thoughts

Crede Signs With Twins; Cruz In the Works?

Were you lulled to sleep, too?

What a massive weekend for the Twins!  If, like me, you completely missed the Joe Crede signing yesterday, where did that come from?

Joe Crede

I'll let LaVelle explain the details of the one-year, incentive-laden deal:

The Twins will sign Crede to one-year deal with a base salary of $2.5 million with the chance to earn as much as $7 million with appearance bonuses. The bonuses begin once Crede reaches 250 plate appearances and tops out at $7 million when he makes his 525th plate appearance.

Here's the big thing with how this contract works out--if Crede manages to keep himself off the disabled list and healthy, he's going to get his $7 million.  If he's healthy enough to log all those plate appearances, I'm optimistic he's also healthy enough to provide some pretty good defense at the hot corner as well.  If the worst happens and he's unable to shake his injuries, then there's nothing about this contract that will handcuff the organization.

What the biggest detractor will be for Crede as a member of the Twins will be fan expectations.  For his career, Joe isn't that amazing of a hitter--.257/.306/.447.  Try that on for size against Tony Batista (.251/.293/.453) or Craig Monroe (.253/.301/.444), and that should really put things in perspective for everyone.  Yes, I hear you--his defense has the potential to save runs and, perhaps, change the outcome of a game from time to time--but even in today's game, defense is going to have a hard time making up for not meeting fan expectations.

As Neal mentioned this afternoon, Joe Crede is a mammoth specimen of a man.  At 6-2, 230, it's easy to see why he can launch baseballs into the stratosphere.  But for many baseball fans, they're not expecting to see a Joe Crede who hits like Craig Monroe, they're expecting to see Joe Crede The Twin Killer.  Here's a guy who hit .400/.429/1.050 in 40 at-bats against Minnesota in 2008, and going back to 2001 when he made his professional debut against the Twins it's been a lot of the same.

Year

OPS vs MIN

2001

1.000

2002

.517

2003

.625

2004

.696

2005

.772

2006

.790

2007

.692

2008

1.479

Oh, wait.  According to these numbers, it'd be hard to call Crede any sort of Twin Killer.  In fact, it certainly appears that his offensive reputation has outgrown who he actually is.  I'm placing this blame on his post-season performance of 2005, when he blasted four October home runs...and still only hit .250/.250/.250.

Don't get me wrong here, because I'm actually in favor of this signing based on what Crede could provide, and based on the terms of his contract.  I just want to ensure that our heads aren't floating in the clouds, because over the course of this summer there's going to be plenty of "Crede's not doing his job!" crap going around on sports talk radio.

Juan Cruz

There's been a bit of buzz surrounding the strikeout-happy Juan Cruz since Arizona started discussing a sign-and-trade deal with the reliever, but Neal put the hammer down on those rumors this afternoon as well:

As for reliever Juan Cruz, reports that the Twins are close to a sign and trade deal aren’t true, according to a person with knowledge of talks. And all indications are that this deal will be hard to pull off. It’s going to be hard enough to agree to terms with the agent. Getting the Diamondbacks to agree on a trade might be even tougher. Things could always change but, for now, there’s little reason to feel optimistic that the Twins can land Cruz.

Ignoring the potential cost in dollars and prospects for the moment, the addition of a guy like Cruz to the Minnesota bullpen would provide immediate stability throughout the ranks.  With Cruz sliding into the set-up role, Jesse Crain, Craig Breslow and Matt Guerrier would be pitching exclusively out of roles they've been suited for:  leverage innings in middle relief.  There's talent and depth in the Minnesota bullpen, but none of it stacks up to what Cruz could bring to the table.

But, back to reality (whoop, there goes gravity) and it's pretty clear that this situation has it's share of thorns, too.  While this scenario would ensure the Twins wouldn't lose their first-round draft pick this June for signing a Type-A free agent, the Diamondbacks put themselves in primise position to pick up a decent prospect anyway.  In regards to performance, in opposition to all those sexy strikeouts are all those scary walks, which is something Minnesota pitchers aren't accustomed to handing out.

If, for some miracle, the Twins and Diamondbacks are able to find a way to make this all work, I'll consider the bullpen to be vastly improved.  If not, well...it's already been a big weekend with the squad landing a pretty big free agent fish.

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I’m placing this blame on his post-season performance of 2005, when he blasted four October home runs…and still only hit .250/.250/.250.

Um what? That’s not possible…

by Nick N. on Feb 22, 2009 9:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

It is possible, without XBH

If all you do is hit singles and never walk, you can achieve that line. But not with doubles or homers.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 23, 2009 8:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

OK

He specifically said he hit four homers in the same sentence.

by Nick N. on Feb 23, 2009 4:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Right

That is impossible.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 23, 2009 7:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for pointing out my own sheer genius.

If I’d read the stat sheet closely, I’d have seen that his October “monthy totals” that comprised that line came from a 1-for-4 performance. That’s clearly not accurate.

by Jesse on Feb 25, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: La Velle's hammer ...

When word got out that the Cruz offer wasn’t true, there was some general La Velle bashing and back biting tonight on his blog. At one point (7:01), La Velle jumped into the fray and basically said (among other things) that he stands by his original report: the Twins had made an offer to Cruz’s agent. He also said that he doesn’t care what else is out there.

It sounds to me like the Twins are working on a deal, but are trying to shut down the rumor mill until it is finalized.

by sploorp on Feb 22, 2009 11:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

That's why they call it a "sign and trade"

LaVelle reported that the Twins made an offer to Cruz in hopes of completing the “sign” portion of this deal. The difficulty, again, as LaVelle notes, is that the Twins also have to successfully negotiate a trade with Arizona. Makes things a bit more difficult.

by Adam Peterson on Feb 23, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm thinkin' ...

… that Smith has already been talking to the Arizona front office and already knows what Arizona will take in trade. I realize that the trade part is the last step in this type of deal, but in my mind they would almost have to know what they were giving up in order to make any kind of an offer to Cruz. I think a lot of the appeal of something like this is if the Twins can pull it off giving up only players that they stand a good chance of losing at the end of spring. They would almost have to know ahead of time if Arizona would be interested in a player (or players) like Humber.

I’m pretty sure that if they’ve made an offer to Cruz, then they have a pretty good idea who they would be sending to Arizona.

by sploorp on Feb 24, 2009 2:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It will be also interesting ...

… to see who gets playing time in the early spring games. I know Perkins is pitching first, but after that … ? I also notice that Humber’s been geeting a little press over at MLB.com. I find that very interesting.

by sploorp on Feb 24, 2009 2:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Crede's postseason numbers

ALCS: .368/.368/.789
WS: .294/.333/.706

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 23, 2009 8:33 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Pales in comparison

to what he’ll do for us this year in the World Series…

by Adam Peterson on Feb 23, 2009 11:47 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

hehe

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 23, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"We're not paying you to hit .300"

If Crede hits 25+ homers from the right side, people might not mind the .250/.300/.350. We didn’t ask for much more from Koskie — and his tenure looks awfully good in hindsight.

There were some weeks last season that I didn’t think the Twins would hit 25+ homeruns from the right side. As a team.

by Evan Nelson on Feb 23, 2009 10:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Are 25 HR really worth it?

This is an issue I never understand. If he hits .250/.300/.350 with 25 HR, that would be a pretty poor line. How many runs would that be expected to contribute to the team? I haven’t done the exact math (and this might be an impossible line), but over 500 PAs, that would be something 25 walks, 120 hits, and virtually no other XBH. I assume he’d end up with something like 50-60 RBIs, and fewer runs scored. We would do much better with Harris and Buscher, who could be counted on to make many fewer outs (OBP probably above.340 in platoon situation).

Basically, are home runs really worth it? Individually they are big difference makers, but if you are only going to get 25 of them, and give up a ton of outs, it doesn’t seem beneficial.

by snolls on Feb 24, 2009 8:45 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Impossible line

If you hit .250 with 25 HRs over 400 at bats, your SLG would be .437 without any doubles. Over 500 at bats, that’s an SLG of .400 without any doubles.

Also, if you have 100 hits over 400 at bats or 125 hits over 500 at bats (.250 average), and you automatically get 25 RBIs from homers, you would have to hit most of your homers with the bases empty and otherwise have 75 or 100 hits without runners in scoring position to get only 50 RBI. That’s not impossible, but it’s highly unlikely. If he’s hitting fifth, with Mauer in the three hole, 25 homers will produce 100 RBIs, similar to Cuddyer’s numbers in 2006.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 24, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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