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Worthless Stats 101: The Hold

Some people don't like the batting average, or the earned run average.  From certain perspectives, there's a logic to the detractors of those old school stats.  But there's a relatively new one that I despise, because I'm not even really sure what it tells me.

If you play fantasy baseball (which I'm not this year, for the first time since 2005...or the season before I started on this SB Nation journey), you might be the commissioner of a league who gets to decide whether or not to use the Hold as a category for your pitchers.  Some people might think this legitimizes the statistic, but I'm promising you right now that it doesn't.

Wait, what's that?  You don't know what a "Hold" is?  You're not alone, my friend.  Allow myself to enlighten...myself.  And you.  We'll borrow from Yahoo Help's answer to the query, "What is a hold?"

The hold stat was created in part to measure the effectiveness of middle relief pitchers. Put simply, holds are to middle relievers what saves are to closers.

A hold is earned when a reliever comes into a save situation and gives way to another reliever without giving up the lead.

Even in theory this sounds pretty arbitrary (not to mention vague), particularly when the Save itself comes under its own fair share of scrutiny.  It's a stat that shows that a pitcher has essentially done his job, but it's so narrow of a focus that it really doesn't tell us anything about his performance.

Without a reference of how, when, playing time or against whom, it's difficult to tell if the number is representative of a decent body of work or if the number is just a combination of luck and being in the right place at the right time.  So the Hold, like the Save or the Win or the RBI, is a subjective stat.  Except that people don't know what it is.

Let's put the number into context.  Scot Shields of the Angels led all of baseball in 2008, for which I'm sure he received a participatory ribbon and a coupon for a Big Mac, with 31 holds.  He was also the proud owner of a 2.70 ERA and a 9.1 K/9.  Not bad.  Following him on this prestigious list are Carlos Marmol (awesome), Kyle McClellen (good), Dan Wheeler (effective), Eddie Guardado (I'm serious, he's fifth) and Damaso Marte (decent).  Just a couple of places below Marte is Arthur Rhodes, who shows up on the leader board with 24 holds...in 35.1 innings.  Sure, that's over 61 appearances (which is ridiculous...this guy had a roster spot?), but it doesn't do anything for the legitimacy of The Hold.

Here's a comparison from a message I received from a friend recently:

Name

IP

ERA

Holds

Joey Devine, OAK

45.2

0.59

11

Eddie Guardado, TEX/MIN

56.1

4.15

25

Devine struck out more than a batter per inning, posted a WHIP well under 1.00, and walked an acceptable number of hitters.  Guardado...well...he didn't have his best season.  But that didn't stop him from being on the leader board, and it's pretty clear that Devine's stellar year didn't earn him any honors.

Using the hold to determine the worth of a pitcher is useless.  It's pretty clear that mediocre (or worse) players can be near or at the top of this list, while perfectly good bullpen arms aren't, and from where I'm sitting that's the end of the argument.  The hold isn't like the home run, where in spite of being a narrow focus it gives us a clear indication of an asset, it's more like the win for a pitcher...arbitrary and entirely dependent on use and the game situation.

If you are playing fantasy baseball this season, and you're wondering how to boost your hold stats, my advice is this:  write down a list of your 20 favorite relief pitchers and tack/tape/glue/zip them to a poster of Cher or The Jonas Brothers.  Then go rent a monkey, blindfold it, feed it some Guiness, spin in around six times and then give it some darts.  Try to leave the room before the monkey starts throwing the darts (or something much smellier), and go back after he's passed out.  Choose the reliever with the most darts.  It's that simple.

Let me know how it works out for you, and don't do that to any monkeys.

0 recs  |  Comment 22 comments |

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I like the hold myself. There isn’t a big reason to draft high on setup men, but over the year you can try to guess who’s going to get holds. You want to things out of your holds guy 1, good actual performance numbers and 2, the guy on the staff getting lots of chances. A lot of it depends on how the manager is using his staff. YOu get to kind of guess into the psychology of the managing style.

But yeah, it’s a pretty arbitrary statistic, just like the save.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 26, 2009 8:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

That's just it...

…it doesn’t really matter how good, or even effective, a pitcher is. If he gets the opportunities, he’ll rack up the numbers. If you’re scoring off holds in fantasy baseball, then sure…there’s a logic to who you pick and why. But I’m still struggling with what the stat tells us about actual baseball and why someone decided we needed to make up another stat that’s completely arbitrary. There’s no punishment for not doing your job, but every time you do…you get a gold star.

I think we should change it from the Hold to a Gold Star. Joey Devine only earned 11 gold stars in 2008.

by Jesse on Feb 26, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Punishment

There is the blown save. If you come into a game in a save situation after the fifth inning and you give up the lead, you get a blown save. The Twins blew 26 saves last year, but only six of those were blown in the ninth inning, by Joe Nathan. The rest of the blown saves were spread between Rincon, Bass, Reyes, Guerrier and Crain. On the other hand, if you come in after the fifth with a lead of three runs or less, you don’t give up the lead, and you turn the ball over to another reliever, it makes sense that you should get acknowledged for your efforts with a hold.

It’s kind of like the save or the quality start. It doesn’t necessarily correlate to good pitching. You can come in with a three-run lead, give up two runs and end the game with the bases loaded and still get the save. You can pitch six innings, throw 120 pitches, walk nine but only give up three earned runs and get a QS. They are arbitrary designations that work most of the time but not all the time. The law of averages makes them meaningful. In the same way, a hold is meaningful if a guy gets a lot of them. He might pitch poorly once in a while and still get one. But by and large, you have to pitch well to get a hold.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 26, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Net saves

Saves/holds and net saves seem analogous to wins/losses to me. Quality starts are actually a much better way of tracking starting pitching than record. What we need is a Quality Relief Appearance metric.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Feb 26, 2009 10:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

net saves = blown saves

Not sure why I wrote net saves.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Feb 26, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Holds

I’m using ESPN for the first time this year and they have a Holds + Saves stat. I like them together because it puts other relievers on an even footing with closers. The one problem I have is the bequeathed runners thing—you get a hold even if you load the bases with an out sprinkled in and Gardy has to come out and tell you you did good. But if anything, that gives set-up men an advantage over closers, which is a welcome reversal for me. There’s unfortunately not a lot of good reliever stats out there and ESPN doesn’t have a minimum IP requirement.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Feb 26, 2009 10:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

outs

Suppose that a pitcher comes in with your team up by three, no one on, no one out. Pitcher gives up two runs, allows the bases to get loaded, and then gets pulled. The next guy strikes two guys out, gives up a sac fly, and then gets another out. The first guy gets a hold, and the second guy gets a blown save.

by snolls on Feb 26, 2009 11:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

really?

Isn’t pitcher #1 on the hook for the runners he put on base?

by shores23 on Feb 26, 2009 11:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

he's on the hook for the runs

but not for the hold, and yes, the next pitcher in gets the BS. As I mentioned above, this is my primary problem with holds and it’s why we need a QRA stat.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Feb 27, 2009 12:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep...

Nathan had a blown save like that last year – he came in with the tying run on base in the 8th, gave up a hit to score the run, and got a blown save despite officially not giving up any runs.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Feb 27, 2009 9:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Loogy's

have an advantage because they only see one or maybe two batters instead of pitching a full inning or more. One out should not earn a special stat like that.

by Waldo on Feb 27, 2009 9:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ah, the LOOGY...

…something else I have a problem with. But hell, it turned Dennys Reyes into a Type-B free agent.

by Jesse on Feb 27, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Free agents

That’s something to rant about. How on earth do some of these guys get to be Type A or B free agents. I think they should just make it very tough to be a Type A. You should have to be a top closer, and ace starter or a stud all-star player to be Type A. Type B I’m not as concerned about. But when Cruz, Hudson and Cabrera are type A’s it’s way too easy to achieve that designation.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 27, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not much of a fan

of saves or holds. Yes, they tell us basically whether a reliever did his job, but it’s a binary yes/no. I think it makes more sense for saves and closers, as for an individual game, it doesn’t matter how well the closer did his job, as long as he closes the game. For a setup guy, it’s not as binary. Coming in with a 3 run lead and giving up 2 runs results in a hold, but the team’s insurance has gone up in a puff of smoke.

Until we start looking at more advanced statistics like WPA or WAR relative to Leverage Index, the stats will be flawed. We need to be looking at the runs a pitcher saves (WAR), and how important each of those runs is to a team winning the game (LI). IMO.

by Adam Peterson on Feb 28, 2009 10:05 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yes

If that were the industry standard, it would give us much more clarity about relief effectiveness. But the QS, H, and S stats are not worthless as long as you are clear about their limitations.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 28, 2009 10:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's the rub

Typically, who’s clear about the limitations of saves, holds, RBI, batting average, ERA, etc? Any stat will have limitations, some more than others…it’s just that some have been around MUCH longer and there’s a comfort level.

by Adam Peterson on Feb 28, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Right

Too few in the mainstream press are clear about the limitations of these old-time stats. Holds is one of the rare “new” stats that lacks much statistical validity. So it doesn’t get respect from anybody.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 28, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but

The guy with the better era is used more in low leverage situations. How would he do under added pressure?

by doofus on Feb 28, 2009 11:35 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Don't know.

Are you talking about Devine versus Guardado? Overall in 2008, Joey Devine actually pitched in higher leverage situations that Guardado (1.36 to 1.30), although Guardado’s LI was probably lowered with mop up time in Minnesota.

As for WPA/LI, Devine was far in front of Guardado (no surprise), 1.53 to 1.06. By comparison, Joe Nathan was at 1.78 and Matt Guerrier came in at -0.50.

by Adam Peterson on Feb 28, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm guilty

as one fantasy commissioner who runs a 6×6 league on Yahoo, using holds and OPS as the 6th categories for pitchers and hitters. I find the main value of including holds is to make a team roster good setup men in addition to closers. In fact, in my league, 8th inning guys are almost more important than closers. Saves and holds have equal weight, and a Carlos Marmol can step in as a closer any time. Doesn’t go the other way.

by Adam Peterson on Feb 28, 2009 4:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

From a Fantasy...

point of view, the hold ranks up there with the save and the win as a stat that doesn’t always seem to align with the skill (or fantasy cost) of the player. But, at least it’s something. In terms of analysis, it’s a pointer and signifier that becomes clearer with context. I think it’s useful and a nice way to recognize some of the least-recognized players on a team.

by MrTheKerz on Mar 1, 2009 10:44 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

One of these days

I want to run a fantasy league that takes nothing other than runs scored offensively (for batters and base runners) and runs saved defensively (for pitchers and fielders), and match up two teams head to head each day. I would love to use my “TRA” software as the basis for this, and we’d see relievers’ true value shine based on the runs they allow or prevent. A ways to go before I’d be able to do this, but IMO it would beat using wins, saves, etc. Maybe I can get something done in time for the 2010 season…

by Adam Peterson on Mar 1, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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