Scott Baker Contract On the Horizon?

by Jesse on Feb 4, 2009 3:59 PM EST in Speculation

MLB.com's Kelly Theiser broached the topic on Monday.

We know that there's interest in a multi-year deal on Scott Baker's half of the equation. The Twins have recently extended multi-year contracts to Jesse Crain and Juan Rincon while they were still under team control, and have reportedly attempted to ink Matt Guerrier as well, so we can safely assume that the Twins are carefulls weighing the risks of inking Baker as well.

Baker will become arbitration eligible following the 2009 season, and suffice it to say that to this point, his performance dictates a pretty significant bump in salary. With other guys like Rich Harden, James Shields, Shaun Marcum, Adam Wainwright and Paul Maholm just finishing up their age-26 seasons, it's not like there's a shortage of good starting pitchers of Baker's age, but that doesn't mean that locking up an effective young pitcher isn't a good idea. A guaranteed paycheck for a guy who's been making the league minimum (or very near it) the last couple seasons is a very attractive carrot, and as long as the numbers are fair on both sides it should be a deal that would be any real financial handicap to the team.

Looking at Antony's comments in Theiser's article, he doesn't confirm whether the organization is interested in signing the right-hander or not, and naturally stays pretty vague. But of all five young starters returning from last season, Baker has the biggest MLB track record from which to judge future performance, and he hasn't exactly been injury prone.

Right now Baker has four seasons remaining under team control. While a four-year deal would make sense, it's more likely that the Twins will try to keep an offer at three years if not two. As Theiser's article mentioned, Antony is aware that pitchers are a higher injury risk long term, and this is a team with a track record of not over-indulging.

If I'm Bill Smith (which I'm clearly not), this is my offer to Scott Baker:

2009: $1,250,000
2010: $2,000,000
2011: $2,900,000

For Baker, the advantage of this deal is that he starts to make major bank one year sooner, and that bank is guaranteed over the next three seasons. For the Twins, the advantage is avoiding arbitration, stability, and possibly a negligible savings on year three of the deal.

Stay tuned.

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Comments

The value is in options

I agree with you, if they are offering 3 years. But, a better offer would be the same thing, plus a couple million up front. In return the Twins get two more cheap option years at the back.
Bonus: $5 million
Yr 1: $1 m
Yr 2: $2 m
Yr 3: $3 m
Yr 4: $4 m ($500k buyout)
Yr 5: $5 m ($500k buyout)

If Baker is still good after 3 years, this is a great deal for the Twins. In return, they give him a guarantee of $11.5 m in career earnings.

by snolls on Feb 4, 2009 4:20 PM EST reply actions

Options

I agree there would need to be at least 1 option year, 2 would be great.

Also Jesse you mention Baker isn’t exactly injury prone… To be more specific when Baker had the groin issue last year, Anderson himself admitted he was shocked considering Baker is his pitcher most obsessed about conditioning. Also he can hardly be blamed for getting the flu before the season started. What’s most attractive is that, to my knowledge, he’s never had any arm injury/issue to speak of.

Also Baker is primed for a breakout season (if last year wasn’t one already). I could see him posting pretty much the same numbers across the board except during 34 starts. Definitely workhorse material. Take out his injury shortened start last year, Scotty averaged 6 1/3 innings per start. During those other 27 starts he went over 110 pitches only twice, 112 both times. Anyways you multiply 6 1/3, you get slightly over 215 IP. That’s assuming he doesn’t get any better in that department and Gardy and Andy don’t let him work deeper into games.

Gardenhire's major league career: Banjo hitting, futility infielder who couldn't lick it.
Rick Anderson's major league career: Strikethrower who never made it happen with his sub 90's fastball.
Really gives a new definition to living vicariously through other people, don't it?

by caseintheface on Feb 4, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions

Probably more realistic would be something like...

2009 – $750,000
2010 – $2 million
2011 – $4.5 million
2012 – $6 million
2013 – $7.75 million
2014 – $9.00 million ($1 million buyout)

5 years, $22million with an ability to make it a 6 year, $31 million.

That would buyout one year of free agency and an option for one more year. Going year to year would likely mean an extra million or so per year, but this gives him some certainty.

by SethSpeaks on Feb 4, 2009 5:30 PM EST reply actions

I like the idea,

but I’m skeptical that the Twins would give a pitcher that long of a contract. If he were a free agent and they were desperate to keep him I could see a six-year deal, but because he’s still under team control they have the option of being careful with the contract length. That way if something DOES happen, they have the ability to come back at the end of the deal and choose the arbitration route again. But if he does continue to perform, as we all hope he will, the team will always have to option of extending the deal.

by Jesse on Feb 4, 2009 5:39 PM EST up reply actions

not at that price

it isn’t worth it to sign someone under your control to that long of a contract at that price. $1m savings per year just isn’t enough to justify guaranteeing $22 million, to someone you only have to guarantee $500k. In that case, you stick with a year to year.

On the other hand if 10-15 million guaranteed is worth it to Baker, then you structure a contract with a bunch of options that would keep him below rate.

by snolls on Feb 4, 2009 9:23 PM EST up reply actions

I'm with Seth

He’s never been injured. He’s done whatever the organization has asked. His career trajectory approaches Radke’s. That contract would stand to save the team a lot of money down the road.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 4, 2009 6:36 PM EST reply actions