Run Differential, With and Without Joe Mauer

by Jesse on Mar 11, 2009 8:16 PM EDT in By the Numbers

"The inflammation [is] in the SI joint and they are going just change the medicine and see where we go from there. Change the type of medicine he’s taking ... go with something more aggressive."

That's Ron Gardenhire, talking about Joe Mauer's back inflammation. Right now it sounds like there's no relation to the kidney operation of three months ago, but that in itself will be no help to the Twins offense if Mauer needs to take some time off.

If, like me, you have absolutely no idea what the sacroiliac joint is (or what it does), a quick internet search tells me this:

There is a left and a right sacroiliac joint, located at the base of the spine.
Inflammation causes pain in the lower back, buttocks (that's for you girls, Joe Mauer's buttocks) and thighs. Clearly this would be an issue for a catcher.

via www.sunshinespine.com

Cmathewson broached the topic of Mauer's back on Tuesday, and there's a lot of good discussion in the comments thread. Be sure to take a look. My question is a bit different, as you can probably guess. It's not about who will necessarily sit in for Joe, but rather what kind of an effect will his absense have on run production?

In 2008 the Twins scored 829 runs, good enough for third in the American League. Using Baseball Musing's lineup analysis tool, the standard Twins lineup last season (Span, Casilla, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Young, Buscher/Harris, Punto, Gomez) would have scored 5.089 runs per game...or, 824 runs. Not that you should believe everything Baseball Musings tells you, but for the simplicity of the experiment we're running that's an incredibly accurate prediction. Which means, naturally, I'm happy to use the tool going forward.

Here are the two lineups we'll be using to predict run production in 2009:

Split	Lineup #1 (With Joe)	Lineup #2 (Without Joe)
1	Span	Span
2	Casilla	Casilla
3	Mauer	Cuddyer
4	Morneau	Morneau
5	Cuddyer	Kubel
6	Kubel	Crede
7	Crede	Redmond
8	Punto	Punto
9	Gomez	Gomez

There are enough lineup variables even having Mauer in the batting order, much less deciphering how it'll look without him, but this is what we're going with. Using these lineups, we'll run two experiments with each: the first will use career bests by the standard of OPS+ (hitting .500 in four at-bats in a rookie season doesn't count), the second will use career averages.

Career Bests
Lineup #1: 5.567 RPG / 902 RPY
Lineup #2: 5.286 RPG / 856 RPY

This is the top end of the spectrum, because if every single player in this lineup sets record highs in their offensive performances this season then the Twins should score at least this many runs. By 2008's standards, Lineup #1 would have been the American League's best offense by one run. Lineup #2 still would have been good enough for second place. Either way, this team would win plenty of games on offensive merits alone.

Career Averages
Lineup #1: 4.887 RPG / 792 RPY
Lineup #2: 4.663 RPG / 755 RPY

These projections are a bit more realistic. Everything being even (which it never is on the field, no matter how simple it looks on paper), if not one player hits below his career line then this is what Minnesota's offense would look like. Lineup #1 would come in right in the middle of the pack, seventh in the American League. Lineup #2 would be 11th.

Using the 745 runs the Twins allowed in 2008 as a basis for the formula, here are Minnesota's pythagorean win-loss records for our four outcomes:

Lineup #1 (Career Best): 95 - 67
Lineup #2 (Career Best): 91 - 71
Lineup #1 (Career Averages): 86 - 76
Lineup #2 (Career Averages): 82 - 80

The reality is that to finish with 90 wins (or more), the Twins will need to see some improvements in their defense and pitching, because it seems that unless everyone has a breakout season the offense won't be able to manage that win total it on its own.

With Joe Mauer, it looks like the Twins are roughly an 86-win team. With improvements on defense and pitching, even removing 17 runs from 2008, the pythagorean record still awards the team just 87 wins. That's borderline for playoff contention, even in a weak division.

Without Mauer, there would be no October. That's made very clear. On a team like the one fielded by the Twins, with very few offensive stars, losing one of the club's two best hitters would have a drastic effect on the long-term fortunes of the team. It's not like Joe is worth 50 runs on his own, but between driving in runners on base and getting driven in after he's earned his way on, the Twins have a drastically different (and definitely more potent) batting order when he's penciled in.

Thankfully, Joe isn't going to be out for the entire season. Chances are he'll still be able to join the team sometime in April, and as long as he's healthy the offense has a pretty decent shot at finishing in the top half of the league in scoring.

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Comments

Somewhere in between

I think Mauer will start around 120 games at about 90% on average. This injury is slow to heal. And it’s prone to flare ups. I don’t see him doing a lot of running this year, or legging out as many doubles. It basically causes sciatic nerve issues, which affects the legs and low back. I tried to play softball with it and it limited me. But I played the outfield. Standing relieves the pain, sitting or squatting makes it worse, causing spasms in the glutes that affect the sciatic nerve. I still get adjustments at the chiropractor for it, and I can crack it any time I want.

FWIW, I think the Twins will do something less than their combined individual peaks, but a little better than average. I’m projecting career years for Kubel, Gomez, and Young, which is above peak by definition. I’m also projecting Span, Punto, and Cuddyer to have below average years, and Mauer, Morneau and Crede to have average years. But Crede is still an upgrade over the third basemen we fielded last year when you consider the rain Lamb had on our offense last year. The net is slightly above average as a team.

I think we’ll be better at preventing runs this year, though. Defense up the middle will benefit from a full year of Punto/Casilla. Crede is a big upgrade at third. And we’ll be about the same in the outfield. Pitching wise, a full year of Liriano is a big upgrade over two months of him plus Livan. And I think he’ll be better this year. In fact, I project improvement from all the starters, some more than others. Slowey and Liriano will improve the most, by my projections.

I don’t think the bullpen is as bad as people say. Just not having Rincon and Bass around has to be a plus. Also, a full year of Mijares and a healthy Crain will make it a better bullpen. Not as good as, say 2006 or 2007, but not the Achilles heel it was last year. Guerrier and Breslow should regress some, with Ayala slightly better. But there’s a lot of depth to draw from come midseason. We had no depth to speak of last year.

All in all, I look for about 90 wins, give or take a couple for freak plays. That should be good enough to win this division.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Mar 11, 2009 11:29 PM EDT reply actions

I hope Mauer can catch 120 games

but at this point, I’m doubting it. If it hurts that much to squat, I’m thinking less than 80 games behind the plate may be more realistic. Yes, we could have Mauer DH another 40-50 games then, but for those 40-50 games, we’d effectively be replacing Kubel with Redmond or Morales.

by Adam Peterson on Mar 12, 2009 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Joe's a tough guy, contrary to popular belief

He played with this most of last year. It got worse as the season went along. By the end of the season, he could barely walk when away from the park. When he got on the field, he hid it well. If they can figure out a way to treat this on a day-to-day basis, 120 games is achievable. The thing is, the pain is not horrible if it’s regularly treated. My sense is, he didn’t treat it much last year. Left untreated, the pain will only get worse, though there’s no structural damage. It’s mostly a nerve issue, that can get better if it is regularly treated.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Mar 12, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes

He is a tough guy, played through the pain last year. If it’s treatable, I agree 120 games is feasible. Plus perhaps another 20 games at DH, hopefully the impact isn’t too large.

by Adam Peterson on Mar 12, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Don't tell that to this guy

trademauer.blogspot.com

by PizzaDelivery on Mar 12, 2009 12:54 AM EDT reply actions

35-40 runs, 3-4 wins

seems about right for the impact of losing Mauer. If Redmond hits for a .295 wOBA like last year, the impact could very well be closer to 50 runs over a full season without Mauer. It all depends on how long Mauer is out, and how much he can play behind the plate when he’s available.

by Adam Peterson on Mar 12, 2009 8:58 AM EDT reply actions