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Comparing Mauer

Inspired by an interesting discussion over at Twins Geek, I put together a quick spreadsheet that compares Joe Mauer to a list of the great catchers of the past 60 years plus a few other active catchers. I don't really have any specific point to make, other than it's interesting to see how favorably Mauer stacks up to the all-time greats through each player's age-25 season.

For the comparison, I looked at: Bench, Berra, Carter, Fisk, Russ Martin, McCann, Piazza, Posada, Pudge Rodriguez, Ted Simmons, and Joe Torre. I also threw Jason Kendall in the mix, since he seems to have become the cautionary tale for those concerned about Mauer's future worth.

Star-divide

First, let's look at playing time through the age of 25, as measured by plate appearances: 

Catcher            PA
Bench 3879
Simmons 3537
Rodriguez 3516
Torre 3103
Carter 2727
Mauer 2387
Kendall 2004
Berra 1925
McCann (24) 1819
Martin 1736
Posada 1365
Fisk 1126
Piazza 1117

Next, I used Baseball Prospectus' Batting Runs Above Replacement to examine the players' total offensive contributions through age 25, adjusted for league, park, era, etc.  The second number is the players' BRAR per 100 PAs, which levels the field for playing time.

   Catcher       BRAR          BRAR/100PA
Bench 270 6.96
Torre 264 8.51
Mauer 204 8.55
Rodriguez 146 4.15
Carter 138 5.06
Kendall 132 6.59
McCann (24) 129 7.09
Berra 116 6.03
Simmons 103 2.91
Martin 103 5.93
Piazza 100 8.95
Fisk 79 7.02
Posada 9 0.66

I then did the same comparison using WARP3, a rough measure of a player's total contribution to their team (offensive and defensive), again adjusted for era, league, park, etc.

Catcher WARP3 WARP3/100PA
Bench 48.4 1.248
Rodriguez 40.2 1.143
Torre 34.6 1.115
Mauer 31.8 1.332
Simmons 30.9 0.874
Carter 26.3 0.964
Berra 21.5 1.117
Kendall 20.8 1.038
Martin 19.1 1.100
McCann (24) 17.8 0.979
Piazza 15.2 1.361
Fisk 13.3 1.181
Posada 0.7 0.051

Notice that Mauer actually ranks second in both BRAR and WARP3 when you adjust for playing time through age 25.  He only loses out to Piazza, but it's important to note Piazza only had about half the PAs.

Finally, as a very crude measure of defensive value, I looked at each player's CS%.  These are unadjusted numbers, and are comparing wildly different environments, so take it with a grain of salt.

 Catcher                 SB                             CS               CS%
Bench 205 205 50.0%
Rodriguez 313 299 48.9%
Torre 183 135 42.5%
Carter 318 228 41.8%
Mauer 150 105 41.2%
Fisk 111 73 39.7%
Simmons 423 226 34.8%
Piazza 194 89 31.4%
Kendall 353 159 31.1%
Martin 223 96 30.1%
McCann (24) 255 72 22.0%
Posada 40 10 20.0%
Berra                 N/A                              N/A                N/A

I think there are some interesting observations to be made from looking at these charts, but I don't know that I need to make them.  It's clear to me that through age-25, Mauer has positioned himself on a hall of fame track.  However, if you look at the catchers who are actually selected to the hall of fame, they each play into their late 30s.  This, obviously, is the biggest obstacle Mauer will face in moving from a great player in his 20s to a hall of famer in his 30s.

Oh, what the heck, I will make one observation.  It seems that the Kendall comparisons may be a bit overstated, when you take into account offensive environments.  League average offense when Kendall was in his early 20s was quite a bit higher than it has been in recent years, which depreciates Kendall's value when we make our adjustments.  When you put the numbers in context, Mauer is considerably better offensively, and threw out a significantly higher number of base runners.

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wow

this is an impressive comparison! Good Job! We all knew that Mauer was one of the “cream of the crop” but now it is known for certain. Also, we can all see that Mauer/McCann/Martin are the best catchers in the Major Leagues right now (in that order) and we also see that Rodriguez has declined by maximum amounts. He no longer is what he once was.

by 33MorneauMVP on Mar 13, 2009 1:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wait a minute

>> However, if you look at the catchers who are actually selected to the hall of fame, they each play into their late 30s.

But not as catchers. If Mauer is still catching at 32 and producing, he’ll match these guys.

Torre played more of his career at non-catching positions. He doesn’t belong in this group.

 Bench was really done as a catcher at age 32, although he played through age 35.

Carter was basically done as a catcher at 35. Not productive his following three seasons.

Simmons was done as a catcher at 33, but played until 38, largely as a DH.

Pudge took steroids.

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on Mar 13, 2009 6:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good point

It’s a very good point, and I actually thought about including a discussion of how long these guys lasted in the position. It was actually a failure on my part to explain what I meant – for some reason, when I’m talking baseball, I describe 33, 34, 35 year old players as being in their “late 30s” (I guess since that’s when most players fall off the plateau and start rolling down the hill into the pit known as retirement). To be more specific, I should have said something like hall-worthy catchers typically stay at the position until their early to mid thirties, something that some Twins fans don’t believe Mauer will accomplish.

I included Torre in the group because he was a catcher through his 20s, and played the most innings at that position during his career. Even won a gold glove as a catcher.

And, yes, Pudge took Steroids. He had to get himself on an even playing field with Juan Rincon somehow.

by Bobomojo on Mar 14, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

Unless this back injury clears up and is not a long-term issue, the over/under on Joe changing positions is 2 years.

Still, Gwynn is a good comp. If he plays another 10-12 years at third base, he’ll end up in the HOF.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Mar 13, 2009 7:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'll still take the over on that two years.

At least until we find out whether this SI inflammation thing will be worse than it sounds like it is right now.

A lot of catchers, particularly ones that are good enough to play out long careers, will change positions at some point. Joe probably will eventually, but I still think he’ll be closer to 30.

But it’s all just rampant speculation on the position change conversation…I’m sure this is a conversation we’ll have numerous times before it’s all said and done.

by Jesse on Mar 13, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're right

He could lick this thing. And he’s so much more valuable as a catcher than anywhere else, that’s a last resort. But the odds are against him. He’s the tallest catcher in baseball history. And he’s the best pure hitting catcher in baseball history (imho). Bench was the best all around offensive catcher, mostly because of his power. But Joe is the Tony Gwynn of catchers. Catching takes such a toll on offense, that, if a good starting catching prospect comes along (ahem, Ramos), and the Twins feel the Twins are better with Mauer at third and Ramos catching, I could see it. I’m not saying it will happen. Joe prefers to catch. So, unless this injury becomes chronic (like mine is), you’re probably right.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Mar 13, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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