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Will Matt Tolbert Make the Trip North?

Somebody always gets left out that deserves to make the team on Opening Day.  What are Tolbert's chances?

Like any other question about roster space, the answer is dependent on a number of other factors.  Injuries, how many pitchers the team decides to use, performances by peers and team goals (both long and short term) all have to be negotiated, and it's rarely an easy list to get through.

So far this spring, Matt Tolbert is second on the team in plate appearances, behind only Denard Span.  He's getting plenty of chances.  The glove has been solid if unspectacular, and you could probably say the same thing about his range.  If there's been a problem it's been the results he'd been getting at the plate until Sunday; he's been 8-for-13 since, including a pair of walks which has helped him earn a .368 OBP.

The biggest obstacle for Tolbert to overcome, however, may not be his individual performance, because for the most part he's been just fine.  His biggest obstacle might simply be the number of infielders considered to be higher on the depth chart.  Joe Crede and Nick Punto are penciled in as the starters at third base and shortstop, with Alexi Casilla the incumbant at second.  Brian Buscher is having a great spring and has earned himself a soft spot with the organization, and Brendan Harris (also having a good spring) offers the same defensive flexibility as Tolbert.  All six of those players, no matter how good they play this spring, can't make the team.

Unless the Twins decide to take only 11 pitchers north.  A five-man bench could incude a catcher (Mike Redmond), an outfielder (the unlucky guy of the day) and three infielders.

This would push a more difficult decision to the bullpen, where R.A. Dickey, Brian Duensing, Jose Mijares and Luis Ayala would be fighting for the sixth bullpen spot.  Even if the Twins go with 12 pitchers (likely leaving Tolbert the odd man out), they're already facing a difficult decision or two with their relief arms.

Whatever the case turns out to be, Opening Day is only 11 days away.  Somebody is going to get some bad news in that time.

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I thought...

…yes. But now I think there is a good chance that the Twins take 12 pitchers north. If they do, I’d think Tolbert is unfortunately the odd man out.

by Twins Territory on Mar 26, 2009 12:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Does Tolbert still have options?

Cause eventually we all know that Punto will get hurt and then we will need somebody like Tolbert as our utility man up north once Harris takes over SS. Harris should start at SS anyways despite Punto, but that is my own personal opinion and I dont hold any sway with Gardy.

by BCTwins on Mar 26, 2009 2:21 PM EDT reply actions  

yes

2

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Mar 27, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Tolbert will start the season in triple A and it looks like Drew Butera will come up north for the start of the season untill Joe comes off the DL

Danoo

by Danoo on Mar 26, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions  

But Butera isn’t taking Tolbert’s spot. That’d be either Dickey or Duensing if he is at triple-A.

by Twins Territory on Mar 26, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

my bad i missed up

Danoo

by Danoo on Mar 26, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

All indications are that Gardy...

…would prefer Tolbert (in part because he is much like Gardy was). I still haven’t been able to confirm whether or not Harris has any options remaining, but assuming he doesn’t I can’t see the Twins losing Harris. Seth has pointed out several times that Tolbert playing every day in Rochester the first x weeks (until we have an injury) is the best for Tolbert and the Twins.

My choice would be to keep Tolbert, but the numbers/options just don’t seem to work. Also, Matt was added to the 40-man roster on November 20, 2007, so he has two options remaining.

by roger13 on Mar 26, 2009 5:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Correction...

…Wasn’t Matt’s only assignment to the minors last year a rehab assignment? If it was, he has all three options remaining.

by roger13 on Mar 26, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

If Harris were out of options

there’s no way he’d make it through waivers down to AAA, IMO. 20+ HR potential means someone will pick him up. I’d start the year with Tolbert in AAA and Harris as the utility infielder. When we rest Casilla, Punto can play 2B with Harris at SS. When someone gets hurt (odds are with Crede or Punto here), Tolbert comes up as the utility guy.

by Adam Peterson on Mar 27, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Bingo

You’re right on the money here, AP.

by DK on Mar 28, 2009 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

As usual

That’s exactly how I see it, unless for some reason they only take 11 pitchers, which is unlikely. Even then, I could see Gardy taking three catchers so he can pinch hit for Butera when he starts without worrying about running out of catchers.

Making the team out of spring training is no big deal on this team. Look at how different the team was in the stretch run than the one that went north from Fort Myers. I don’t expect that much turnover this year. But stuff happens. Punto and Cuddyer in particular are injury prone.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Mar 28, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Um...

Won’t Tolbert simply be going north instead of Gomez? After all, a certain poster here told us last December that he had a pal with insider knowledge – a pal whom if we could see him in action in the Twins’ offices would impress us all, if I am recalling the post correctly – and that insider said Gomez would start 2009 in AAA.

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on Mar 26, 2009 11:58 PM EDT reply actions  

That poster was me...

…and your use of words such as “pal” and the rest of your several recent comments means you don’t understand or care to understand relationships that professionals in the world of baseball have developed over the past 40+ years. Will Gomez begin the season in Rochester…No. But that is because of progress he made over the winter to become a better player. At the end of last season there were serious questions about where he would begin this season and I stand by my post and the information a close baseball associate told me.

by roger13 on Mar 28, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

I didn’t agree with the executive’s appraisal because I saw a lot of progress after he was moved out of the pressure cooker that is the lead-off spot. But I understood why he said it. Several people on this site (snolls, AdamOnFrist, et al) advocated the very same thing all winter. I think he’s laid some of that stuff to rest with how prepared he was coming into camp. But even after the progress that Adam P demonstrated through numbers earlier, he could have ended up in AAA if he came to camp with the same attitude he did last year.

He has enormous potential. And his actual is a bit better than league average, all things considered. It just takes a year or so for a kid to get acclimated to his new org and the focus they bring. It was clear the Mets are not a teaching org, to their great discredit. This is the year we will start to reap the benefits of the Santana trade in a big way, after all these kids tune their approach to the new org. Gomez, in particular, will take a big step forward this year. It will be fun to watch.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Mar 28, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gomez

Oh yeah, I was strongly in that camp. In many ways I still am, though I may be proven wrong shortly.

I really hope that he has truly turned a corner. I haven’t watched any games yet, so if any of you have, I’d be really curious how he looks at the plate. Does he really look in more control, better balance, and laying off the breaking ball? If so, that’s fantastic to hear.

But, I want to stress what I think is an important point one last time before the year starts. If Gomez is significantly better than his replacement, and still has more room to develop, then the Twins would benefit from him doing that development at AAA, where the service clock is off. The fact that the Twins don’t seem to know how to fit 4 guys into 3 spots, indicates to me that the difference can’t be huge. The fact that we all use phrases like “enormous potential” indicates that consensus is that he has room to grow.

I hope he turns into some kind of phenomenal combination of Ichiro and Beltran this year, but if he doesn’t, I think we are going to wake up in two years, he’ll be a budding star all of a sudden, and we’ll realize that we wasted two years of $400k/year and 1 cheap arbitration year to develop the next great Yankee/Red Sox centerfielder, getting very little of the benefit for ourselves. When we finally see the potential, arbitration will have us paying nearly market rate, until we trade him for more potential.

That is all. GO TWINS. GO GOGO!.

by snolls on Mar 31, 2009 8:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Does he really look in more control, better balance, and laying off the breaking ball?

Yes. He looks like a different hitter. He’s getting a lot of long counts, hitting his pitch the other way, and still driving the ball to left when he gets the chance. He has more walks than strikeouts this spring, and he’s consistently laying off the breaking ball out of the zone.

That said, it is spring, and he’s more relaxed without as much pressure on him. He might fall into bad habits if the pressure mounts for him in the regular year. But all indications are he’ll be a much better overall hitter this year. An OBP of .350 or so is a real possibility if he can continue with his present approach.

Long term, he’ll be more like Hunter than Beltran, I think. He’s made strides with patience, but there are limits. As he fills out, though, he’ll gain more power without trying to hit for the fences all the time.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Mar 31, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Team Depth

So we have too many outfielders, too many infielders and too many pitchers. And the problem is? Something tells me these problems will sort themselves out. The Twins play hard, so somebody always gets hurt; nature of the beast. It wasn’t Cuddyer’s fault he got hurt last year; odds are someone will take a freak bounce and get knocked onto the DL. Is that not what the depth is meant to cover?

by BigSkyViking on Mar 27, 2009 8:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Right on point BigSky...

…Last year seven position players who began their seasons in Rochester played for the Twins at some time during the season. I expect we all are hopeful the number will be smaller this year, however, it is likely that several will see a lot of action with the big club in 2009.

by roger13 on Mar 28, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

whose heading north...there is a track record here

A resounding NO. Tolbert is deserving but caught up in the numbers game. Ayala and Guerrier go north because they can be jetisoned and the minor leaguers can be brought up. If you look at Twins teams of the past, this is exactly what they do. Dickey intrigues me but he can wait. Someone will go when Mirales proves sound. Don’t worry, with injuries and such, all will get their chance.

by jmills2 on Mar 31, 2009 9:44 PM EDT reply actions  

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