Luke Hughes VS Danny Valencia
by Jesse on Mar 3, 2009 6:45 PM EST
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Both men will get their shots at third base this spring.
...Danny Valencia turned in the defensive play of the game with a run-saving stab-and-throw to end the sixth inning.
That's from Joe Christensen's update this afternoon, following the Twins' 3-2 victory over Puerto Rico. While Valencia is currently scheduled to start the season in double-A New Britain, there's no doubt he'll be pushing Luke Hughes for the top spot for third base prospects in the Minnesota system.
Hughes, 24, is slated to be Rochester's starting third baseman this summer. He's also off to the World Baseball Classic, where a strong performance could position him for an early appearance in Minnesota this summer. The Aussie hit .319/.385/.551 in 285 at-bats for the Rock Cats in 2008 before being promoted to Rochester, where his .778 OPS wasn't too shabby for a first time around in triple-A. While his defense isn't attracting a lot of attention, over the last two seasons it's been Luke's offense that's driven him through the system.
Valencia, also 24, will probably be starting the season with the Rock Cats. Hot on the heals of Hughes, Danny's offense is even better. A .920 OPS in single-A last summer earned him a promotion to double-A, where .289/.334/.485 is a pretty good line for your first time around. He's a .305/.361/.485 career hitter in the minors, and with what he's done so far this spring, he's stock in the organization has done nothing but rise.
Looking at their career history, right now Valencia walks more and hits more extra-base hits, in spite of being the same age. The reason Hughes is currently in front of Valencia on the depth chart is because Hughes was signed as an undrafted free agent back in '02, giving him five years in the MInnesota farm system; Valencia was a 19th round draft choice in '06, giving him two years and some change in the system.
Of course, if Deibinson Romero can pick up where he left off prior to his injury last summer, he could be pushing both men for their jobs as well. So if Romero steps up his game, don't be surprised to see Hughes and Valencia battling it out for the same position while on the same club in Rochester. Right now the definition in the third base organizational depth chart is clear, but both men have an opportunity to take the proverbial bull by the horns and force the organization's hand...whether that's by promoting Valnencia to triple-A or Hughes to the big league club.
If you're into the jostling of minor league depth charts and the future of the team, this is one position battle you should definitely keep your eyes on.
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This is what I wrote in LEN3's blog
Hughes needs a Koskie-like turnaround at third if he’s to hold off the competition. Like Koskie, he’s a good athlete, but he never played a lot of baseball, let alone third base, until relatively late in life. Valencia’s been playing ball year round for 20 years. The little footwork and throwing issues are baked into his muscle memory. He doesn’t have to think about how to get outs, he can just relax and get outs. Hughes has to think about what the coaches are telling him on every play. He can take 100 ground balls a day for a whole season and still look mechanical doing it. I wouldn’t be surprised if the two switch places this year as Hughes struggles with consistency defensively and Valencia makes all the plays. Offensively, I actually prefer Valencia. He doesn’t have as much power, but he’s more polished–fewer strikeouts, better situational hitting.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Mar 3, 2009 7:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That's some really good input.
I didn’t know that about Hughes, and it puts some things into context. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the two switch places either, with Valencia leapfrogging Hughes. It all makes me wish I could be in Florida watching it happen myself.
by Jesse on Mar 3, 2009 7:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can Hughes improve his defense at 3B?
from your description, you probably doubt it. I don’t know, haven’t seen or heard enough, other than Hughes being a below average defender and playing OF in the AFL. How big is the gap defensively? Hughes is ahead of Valencia offensively (if only because of his performance at AA and AAA), even though Valencia may be more polished. At this point, I suspect Valencia’s defense makes up for any difference offensively. If Hughes improves, or Valencia regresses a bit offensively, then Hughes passes Valencia on the prospect charts.
I agree, Hughes probably makes it to the big leagues first, but Valencia is more likely to be our 3B of the future at the moment. I wish we could have the same discussion about SS in the system…
by Adam Peterson on Mar 3, 2009 9:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How big is the gap defensively?
Huge. He’s about at Buscher’s level two years ago. Gardy said Valencia is ready now defensively. Hughes could improve rather quickly, as Koskie did. But he’s got a long way to go. In this respect Valencia is much closer to the majors. And I would say Valencia is actually ahead of Hughes offensively as well. Hughes is a free swinger who swings from his heels. Valencia is much more patient, much more under control.
As to the SS issue, this could be the year that issue starts to resolve itself. This is the first year Plouffe will be settled at a level appropriate for his age. So we will see how he responds. And Paul Kelly will start in Fort Myers. If he can stay healthy and play to his ability for a year, that will be huge. Between the two of them, one must be the SS of the future. If neither is, the Twins will have to go outside the organization for their SS of the future.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Mar 4, 2009 9:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd argue...
“Hughes is ahead of Valencia offensively (if only because of his performance at AA and AAA), even though Valencia may be more polished”
I’d argue that Hughes is ahead of Valencia only because of opportunity. If Valencia had spent all of 2009 in New Britain, I fully believe his offensive numbers would have been just as good. Remember that Valencia didn’t homer for a month after he got to New Britain, and then he hit ten in the next month. That’sbasically what Hughes did in April, the start of his second season at AA.
And defensively, there is no comparison.
by SethSpeaks on Mar 4, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Numbers at NB just as good?
Considering that Hughes put up a 936 OPS in AA last year, I doubt Valencia would have done the same offensively in AA all year. But I know what you mean. If Hughes played the whole year at AA, he probably wouldn’t maintain that OPS either.
by Adam Peterson on Mar 4, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think...
…Hughes will reach the bigs first. He’ll likely be up in September at least. Now, who will be the future third basemen at the end of the season? Hmmm…
by Twins Territory on Mar 3, 2009 7:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
They're definitely two seperate questions...
…who will reach the majors first, and whether one of them will be a “3B Of The Future”. I have to think it’d be Hughes and Valencia as answers respectively, at least right now. I’m still looking forward to seeing what happens this year.
by Jesse on Mar 3, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed
I think Hughes is closer just because he’d played in AAA and whatnot. Valencia needs more time, but a good year in ’09 could put him ahead for the third base spot in 2010.
by Twins Territory on Mar 3, 2009 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hughes
I agree that Hughes will be up first and Valencia is the 3B of the future. Probably only because Hughes has AAA time and more time in the organization.
by SethSpeaks on Mar 4, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
DH of the future
I know Kubels signed for two more years but I don’t see us retaining him as we’ll have pitchers getting closer to FA and Mr. Mauer is going to need a big chunk of change. Unless Kubel just blows up I don’t see us keeping him around in two years. Even if he does blow up we might not be able to keep him around (wait we do have one option year right?).
The point is that I could see Hughes being our future DH if his hitting keeps up with the ability to play decent outfield and be serviceable at 1st and 3rd as needed.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Mar 4, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Luke Hughes will come up but I Danny Valencia is the future 3baseman for the Twins and with Hughes being in the WBC i think is helping Valencia stock more
Danoo
by Danoo on Mar 3, 2009 8:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I assume Hughes comes up first as well
but it seems more likely that his future is as a 4C backup/platoon guy than a starting 3B.
Frankly, I wish they would push Valencia to Rochester to start the year; they need to know about him and try to get him ready by the start of next year; besides, it isn’t as if he’s been young for his leagues. I’m not altogether sold on him ever being a starting caliber player either, but they need to find out.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 3, 2009 9:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
What's not to like?
He’s hit at every level. He plays elite defense. He’s been promoted mid-season every year. He’s the best third base prospect we’ve had since I’ve been following the Twins’ minor leagues, which dates back to Gary Gaetti.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Mar 3, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who is this
Crede guy I keep reading about?
Both Hughes and Valencia look a little thin in the chest for a 3B, but at least Valencia can pick it and get off the deck and throw. Hughes looked weak against the Yanks on Saturday. He really does need a new position. I bet the Twins hope he hits the hell out of the ball so they can trade him….
by Old Twins Cap on Mar 3, 2009 11:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hughes Position
I’ve said all along that Hughes should come to camp with a bunch of gloves… as a super utility guy at AAA, he can play 3B, SS, 2B, and LF and CF… my assumption is he could probably be adequate at 1B and RF as well. He’s played those positions, and if you want to get his bat in the lineup, and be thinking long-term, that is the role I see him in.
by SethSpeaks on Mar 4, 2009 12:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Utility guys typically excell with the glove at a number of positions
Hughes doesn’t have the range to play in the middle of the diamond and he doesn’t have the glove or arm to play on the corners. He could develop the glove, but he’s unlikely to develop the arm. And developing the glove will take time.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Mar 4, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Typically utility players are defensive wizards… but I think if they want to find a way for him to get his bat in the lineup, he’ll have to do something because Kubel will be the primary DH. It’d be best if you could find a way to hide his glove depending on matchups.
by SethSpeaks on Mar 4, 2009 11:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Think Bill Hall
If he can hit, and can play equally marginal (or equally deficient) defense at a number of positions, he’ll end up in the lineup. If he isn’t good in the field, then flexibility is key to being valuable. Most utility guys are no bat, all glove at lots of positions. A team would be happy to take a good bat that can be placed at whatever position is otherwise their weakest.
by snolls on Mar 5, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Harris
I suppose Brendan is our Bill Hall. Hughes must show that he’s at least as good in the field at several positions as Harris is. If he is, his bat will make him more valuable than Harris. Harris is way better than Hughes at every infield position, but I still wouldn’t call Harris a utility player. He’s a versatile bench bat. On Gardy’s teams, those guys end up pinch hitting more than starting games at positions. Hughes’ best starting position is DH, and I don’t see that changing any time soon.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Mar 5, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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